20/20 Hindsight - Week 3

Posted 9/22 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

As we all know Hindsight is 20/20. This weekly column is devoted to learning from common mistakes and serves as Footballguys' "Fantasy Football Confessional."

Would've (From the Who Would Have Known File)

The Jets defense was this good: When New York shut down an offense like Houston's, who subsequently pasted Tennessee's defense for 34 points after the Titans limited Pittsburgh to a pedestrian 13, it's a pretty good indication that the Jets are dangerous unit. They were 29th in pass defense last year, and this year they shut down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss in consecutive games this year. And what shouldn't be lost on anyone is the fact the defense is shutting down quality offensive units when their own offense's triggerman is a rookie.

Lesson Learned: Scheme, coaching, and free agency makes a difference. The Jets defense built a decent foundation under former coach Eric Mangini, but Rex Ryan has turned it up a notch using a mix of his guys from Baltimore (Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard) with New York players (David Harris, Kris Jenkins, and Darrelle Revis) that just needed a scheme to maximize limited the Pats to six points with their pressure is also an amazing stat. It's still too early to tell whether New York will be as dominant as they initially appear, but they have made a great first impression. However these guys couldn't perform this well if they were on the field too often, which is something they haven't had to worry about thanks to the Jets offensive line, who are another example why building a strong offensive line is probably the most valuable thing an NFL GM can do when he takes over a team.

Chris Johnson and Frank Gore would combine to outscore a lot of fantasy teams: I'm in a league where both players alone outscored a fantasy team this weekend. Gore's 21 touches for 246 total yards and two scores couldn't even top Johnson's 25 touches for 284 total yards and three scores despite the fact Gore's two 75-plus-yard touchdown runs was a first since Barry Sanders did it years ago. Neither player was a consensus top-five pick (although Gore was close) but it will be difficult for any player to have the type of days these two had this year. Both players couldn't be more different in terms of their style of play, but they play for head coaches that want a physical offensive approach who both descended from the Mike Ditka-Buddy Ryan coaching tree.

And best of all, neither team uses the Wildcat offense. I'm looking forward to midseason, just to hear about the lack of success the copycat NFL teams will have experienced with this scheme. I seriously doubt we've seen more than a handful of positive plays (more than five-yard gains) from the teams that have used the Wildcat this year other than the Dolphins, and the reason has to do with the formation being used as a gimmick, defenses are more prepared for it, and it lacks the versatility of its more evolved brethren. The Dolphins have more experience with it and are more committed to using it, which explains their greater rate of success.

Lesson Learned: There is more than one type of runner capable of huge fantasy production, however, it still boils down to offensive line play. The big-uglys upfront are an integral part of a team's success offensively and often factors into the performance of the defense.

Could've (From the Who Could Have Known File)

Fred Jackson could be one of the NFL's leading rushers in a two-minute offense: It's not that I thought Jackson lacked talent as a runner. We have known for a couple of seasons that he has skills. However, he is making the most of his opportunities - something he has to do on an offense that hasn't won either time of possession battle and lacks continuity due to turnover up front. Jackson have 163 yards on 28 carries and another 25 through the air, making him the fifth-leading runner in the NFL.

Lesson Learned: Maybe the Bills new what they were doing when they installed this "Pop Warner" offensive this summer…

Greg Jennings would get shut out by the Bengals: Jennings got taken out of the game because Aaron Rodgers lacked the time to find him down field after LT Chad Clifton hurt his ankle. Since Jennings is the more dangerous option between him and Donald Driver, it only makes sense that a defense would focus their attention more on Jennings. Look at what the Jets did to Randy Moss and Andre Johnson so far.

Lesson Learned: Same song, next verse about the importance of the offensive line.

Antwaan Odom could sack Aaron Rodgers Five Times: Talk about rarefied air, one more and he matches Derrick Thomas' effort against the Seahawks that was one sack shy of the NFL record. Odom was a gifted athlete at Alabama and the Titans had high hopes for him when they made him a first-day selection, but he never put it all together. Against the Packers, Odom, a free agent in many IDP leagues, went nuts.

Lesson Learned: Odom benefited from an injury to Packers LT Chad Clifton, but he still had two sacks against the Broncos defense in week one. Physically, Odom has Pro Bowl athleticism so it's very possible this isn't a fluke.

Should've (From The I Knew I Should've File)

Remained patient and not push the panic button…RONNIE BROWN! Brown did nothing against the Falcons, but had 118 yards and two scores against the Colts in week two. It was just in time for me, because I was expecting my front yard to get the McKlevin treatment from reactionary fantasy owners who pushed the panic button after week one if Brown didn't rebound.

Lesson Learned: The Dolphins offensive line performed much better and the coaching staff was more inventive with misdirection and well-studied with what they did successfully in week one to produce a much more effective game plan. Sometimes you just have to wait a game or two - sometimes longer, such as was the case with DeAngelo Williams last year - to see your top picks produce as projected.

Nagging Feelings-Week 3

If the Titans lose two more games, I wouldn't be surprised if Vince Young gets the nod because there is no earthly way Kerry Collins has more than another year in Tennessee, at best.

It's amazing how game planning can make such a difference despite inferior skill talent. Chad Pennington and Ted Ginn were clockwork on third down out routes against the cover two defense for repeat conversions that kept the Dolphins offense on the field and allowed their best player Ronnie Brown to make plays in the running game. When the Dolphins face cover two, they will be successful running the ball, but I think they will struggle more often against defenses than play man-to-man.

Mike Sims-Walker is due. The guy even admitted he was cursed after getting hurt in the preseason and losing his starting job to Troy Williamson. However, he didn't sulk on the field and made the most of his opportunity this weekend when Williams injured his shoulder. This guy is good enough to not only lead the Jaguars in receiving, but he could turn around this offense as that one component Jacksonville lacked in terms of skill talent to spread the field and force defenses to account for multiple players.

I never quite understood what happened to Kelley Washington for all of these years. When the Bengals drafted him out of Tennessee he looked like a steal. I thought he was a better receiver than his more heralded teammate Donte Stallworth. However, "the Future" never came for Washington, who bounced to New England and became a nice special teams player. Now in Baltimore, Washington is flashing the hands and power he had as a middle of the field terror that he was in college. No one is really talking about him right now, but I think Washington could be a huge surprise by midseason