The Weekly Gut Check - Week 1 Risky Plays

  Posted 9/10 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

As with every season, there will be some huge surprises this opening weekend, and I can't wait to see the extremes of collective panic and euphoria that comes with it. So on the afternoon of the opener where the World Champion Steelers seek to avenge a 2008 in-season beat-down (and Terrible Towel desecration) by the Titans, I'm profiling high-risk, high-reward plays at each position.

Quarterback - This Week's Sanitation Engineers

Trent Edwards -- If you were on my Edwards bandwagon this spring, chances are you jumped off after it shrunk to the size of an inner tube getting dragged behind a 4x4 when the Bills had would be best described as a lousy preseason. A Terrell Owens toe injury, lackluster pass protection, and the firing of offensive coordinator Turk Schonert are enough issues to dampen the spirits of Richard Simmons. However, I anticipate New England to score early and often, forcing Buffalo to throw on most downs. At this point one of three things could happen:

1. Edwards gets hurt: If the Patriots build a huge lead early, Bill Belicheck is likely to pay tribute to the recently deceased Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson and throw blitzes at Trent Edwards that only see the light of day at a Ryan family reunion with Buddy bringing surprises from his horse farm. Since it's week one and Edwards is healthy, I think he'll be able to withstand the potential punishment if this happens. I also believe the two-minute offense will limit some of his punishment and help him generate garbage-time fantasy points. Remember, Terrell Owens didn't play more than a series or two in the first preseason game and the real criticism came in subsequent weeks.


2. Edwards gets benched: It's also possible that the Patriots completely demoralize Edwards and the QB loses his mental edge, turning over the ball multiple times in a short span. Except Edwards played at Stanford during the Bush-Leinart era of USC, which is pretty much the NCAA equivalent of Buffalo facing New England if things go this wrong this fast. If Edwards perform well enough through the debacle that I saw a few years ago at Stanford, I think he can do all right on Monday Night. Buffalo really has no one else to step in for him anyhow.


3. Edwards compiles great fantasy production trying to keep up with Brady: One of the reasons the Bills QB and Lee Evans talked to Dick Jauron about Schonert was his lack of aggressive play calling and pre-snap movement. There is no question that Evans and Owens (still) can get deep at anytime or gain big yardage off short pass plays and some of that responsibility is the coaching staff getting these two potential studs in optimal, pre-snap situations to make this happen. If the suggested tweaks to new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt are applied then Buffalo does have a chance to get off to a good start and limit New England's aggressive tendencies. If they don't, it's still possible that if New England builds a huge lead that Edwards compiles two-thirds of his stats when the game is out of hand and has enough time to be productive. In most leagues - where interceptions are penalized - even a 25 for 45, 280-yard, 2-TD, 3-Int game is pretty good.

If you drafted early this summer and players like Matt Cassell or Kyle Orton didn't work out as hoped - or you feel like gambling, Edwards might be that guy.

Matt Stafford - You should see the pattern here. Edwards elite talent at WR and facing an opposing offense with all-world QBs with even more elite skill talent than their own. Neither the Patriots nor Saints are considered top-notch defense units, although both should be better this year. What Stafford has going for him are Calvin Johnson's deep ball skills and head coach Jim Schwartz's statements to the media that the decision to go with Stafford is not an experiment. Translation: Daunte Culpepper isn't going into the game unless Stafford is completely demoralized or injured. Based on the fact that the Lions organization has been more impressed with the rookie than they expected and that includes his poise, I think we'll see a big, yardage game from the first-time starter. Because Stafford has always been a more aggressive player than Trent Edwards, he might be an even better risk-reward choice.

Running back - A Perfect Match

Reggie Bush - Detroit has a new coaching staff and some new players, but from what I saw of them this preseason they still had the tendency to be too aggressive and overrun their gap responsibilities. If this happens against a back like Bush, it could be a big week for the oft-injured Saint. A lot of fantasy owners were able to get Bush as their third back this summer, which means they are faced with the conundrum of starting him because of his great match up despite the fact they would like to see if Bush can actually erase all the concerns about practicing once a day - if at all - and all the limping on the sidelines during training camp.

I think Bush is ready to go. The Saints were merely cautious with him because they just wanted to get him prepared for the real games. With his knee problems, it's possible he won't last the season (again) and even more likely his career is much shorter than we hoped when he was the can't-miss prospect that had us questioning the sanity of the Houston Texans. However, we're talking about one week, and you might as well use him early when he's still (relatively) healthy. If I'm strictly playing the match ups, the undisciplined tendencies of the Lions defensive unit has me believing Reggie Bush will capitalize on some big-play opportunities.

Wide Receiver - Sunday's Special: Smoked DBs with a side of toast

Percy Harvin - Let's face the facts. Brett Favre might have a partially torn rotator cuff, and he skipped training camp, but he's still a far more effective signal caller than anyone previously on the roster. The Vikings might be the best screen team in football and they had two homerun threats in Adrian Peterson and Bernard Berrian heading into April when they selected a do-it-all threat with yards after contact skills and speed to burn. If you didn't catch the preseason game versus the Texans you missed just a sample of what head coach Brad Childress has in store for opponents with Harvin in the lineup.

The rookie wide receiver didn't have a fantastic game by any stretch of the imagination. However, he demonstrated the speed to get behind the secondary on intermediate/deep routes, the balance to bounce away from defenders sandwiching him, and the versatility to run a variety of plays lined up in different formations without making mistakes. He did this with just five touches - three catches and two runs. The caution among fantasy owners is to wait and see how many touches Harvin gets in the opening weeks.

I believe Harvin will see at least 8-10 touches in the regular season opener based on the preview we got from Brad Childress against the Texans. I don't know about you, but the prospect of Harvin facing the Browns defense is more enticing than a plate of Joe Bryant's Smokey Mountain Dew Chicken. And just like the recipe, it will take Harvin about three hours to smoke the Browns defense. Unless you drafted a team with Randy Moss, Greg Jennings, Chad Ochocinco, and DeSean Jackson as your first four receivers (I love the versatility of writing a column and talking trash at the same time - I might have to call this "a Harvin"), then Harvin should be a decent play as a No.3 or No. 4 WR. I think the worst-case scenario this weekend for the rookie will be 80 combined yards and no touchdowns.

Tight End - Monday Night Dessert: A Visit to the Baker

Chris Baker - Wes Welker doesn't look like he'll be at full health for the opener and with the departures of Alex Smith and Dave Thomas (remember Thomas as a very good sleeper candidate if Shockey pulls his groin - or his medulla oblongata - again), which puts the job firmly in the hands of Baker. The former Jet seemed to have rapport with Brady in the red zone this summer and I think he's a sneaky candidate for a big year. Although his best season was a 41-catch, 409-yard, 3-score season in 2007, Baker has a nice ratio of scores to receptions.

By no means is this comprehensive, but comparing Baker to the all-time leader in touchdowns will cut to the quick.

At frequency where a TE has at least a seven percent of his receptions to scores seems pretty good, anything over 10 percent is great. I don't anticipate Chris Baker to suddenly gain the downfield acceleration and route skills of Tony Gonzalez, but the fact he's been a consistently effective, situational red zone threat for half his career (and last year he was clearly the odd man out when the Jets drafted Dustin Keller) is an indication that Baker was trustworthy in these situations during the Chad Pennington era. Now paired with Tom Brady, it's possible we could see Baker cross the goal line 7-8 times this year. I think the first time (or two) happens Monday night.

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I tried out several hypothetical lineups this summer. First, I wanted a Brady to Moss connection. Chad Ochocinco looked like a good deal even at $27, so did Vincent Jackson at $21. Of course by the time I picked all my favorites, I was $60 over budget and a half dozen players short of the minimum roster requirement. Now I know how my ex- felt when she once asked me how much we could spend on back to school clothes' from our joint account and she came back with a receipt for twice the amount we agreed upon and a third of the duds.

So I decided to do the fantasy equivalent of shopping at Marshall's. You may have to keep going back to the store to find what you're looking for but once you do, the price is right. Hopefully, that's what happened with my picks:

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers ($27) - Rodgers made it a lot less difficult for me to come off Brady, especially with Green Bay's array of weapons and the fact the second-year starter played his first year under the shadow of Brett Favre and excelled with an injury.

Eli Manning ($16) - I toyed with the idea of spending a few more dollars on David Garrard or going bargain basement with a guy like Leftwich. However, I need a reliable player if Rodgers gets hurt and as much as Garrard could be that solid depth, I think Manning still gives me a fighting chance at a right price. The Giants may try to run the ball down opponents' throats, but defenses will force Manning to test his unproven receiving corps. He'll be good enough if the rest of my team comes through.

Running Backs

DeAngelo Williams ($37) - Maurice Jones-Drew - even at $50 - was tempting, but it would only be worth it to me if I could have Williams, too. The result was not nearly enough roster depth - which reflects the forethought put into this contest. I'll take the guy at the lower price, with the better line, and the division with weaker defenses even if he has to cede some carries to other quality backs.

Ray Rice ($21) - If this surprises you, this is the first time you've read my column. It's a gamble, but I've been gambling on him all summer.

Willie Parker ($16) - He wasn't even on my radar to begin the summer, but with the recent news out of Pittsburgh, he's capable of out-producing players nearly twice his worth.

Fred Taylor ($11) - All summer I went back and forth between Taylor and Felix Jones. I still feel ambivalent about the choice, but I think he has enough left in the tank to be a reliable fantasy performer in a great offense.

Ahmad Bradshaw ($8) - The guy can flat-out play and I think he's worth $8 to find out if he becomes Willie Parker to Brandon Jacobs' Jerome Bettis.

Edgerrin James ($1) - He lacks what Fred Taylor still has left, but for a fraction of the price and goal line carries, why not?

Chris Brown ($1) - If he stays healthy, he still has top-24 RB ability.

Wide Receivers

Randy Moss ($42) - I had to keep half of my Brady-Moss dream connection. It's too ridiculous not to pick one of them just on upside alone.

Vincent Jackson ($21) - I don't foresee 90 receptions from Jackson, but 75 catches, 1100 yards, and double-digit scores seem possible. He definitely appears like he's picked up where he left off in 2008 and I have him ranked among my top 12 WRs, so $21 is a great price.

Steve Smith ($12) - I never thought I would pick three Giants, but I think this indicates I think they are slightly underrated. Everyone looks at Steve Smith's big drop in the third preseason game and miss the point that this normally sure-handed receiver burned his opponent deep - something people believe he can't do.

Isaac Bruce ($5) - It's funny we hear all about Michael Crabtree who must still think mini camp is next week, and Josh Morgan, who might not even have beaten Arnaz Battle for the job opposite Bruce. He'll still take young corners to school more often than his price indicates.

Percy Harvin ($5) - No-brainer at five bucks for a guy with his upside.

Laurent Robinson ($2) - He's a starter with a veteran QB and upside.

Tight Ends

Jeremy Shockey ($9) - Remember my comment that Vernon Davis, Jeremy Shockey, and Todd Heap were like a shell game on a street corner? This was my opportunity to pick each of them in at least one of my drafts. His price, his preseason performance, and Drew Brees made it worthwhile.

Jermichael Finley ($3) - An upside pick and injury insurance to Shockey.

Chris Baker ($1) - See what I wrote about him above.

Kickers

Robbie Gould ($2) - I considered Akers and Bironas, but I think the Packers and Vikings have decent enough defenses that Gould will remain an active option inside the 30-yard line for the Bears.

Dan Carpenter ($1) - I doubt Miami will be a consistent passing threat in the red area and one-dimensional offensive units often rely more on their kickers.

Steve Hauschka ($1) - I wanted depth and see my comments on Carpenter.