The Weekly Gut Check - Bold Predictions

  Posted 9/3 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

A Review Of 2008's Bold Predictions

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."

- Mark Twain

If there is a statement for NFL fans to live by, Mark Twain's brand of common sense ain't half bad. Because after we've done all the analysis, read the beat writers, and watched the preseason games, certain things are going to happen every year that will make fools of us all. If you can manage to have one move that makes you look like a genius for every four that are the fantasy football equivalent of a swirlie, you are probably in for a good season.

Last year, I had some decent results for bold predictions for the fantasy season:

1. The surprise RB in 2008 will be from among its preseason rushing leaders: DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, and Steve Slaton. Take your pick. If they were in the top-12 in August and they were starting in September and on your roster, things were looking up for you.


2. Dustin Keller will be a top-seven fantasy tight end: Keller had good moments, just not enough.


3. Calvin Johnson would be more productive than Randy Moss: Thanks to Bernard Pollard this was the case. Although Johnson's totals were on par for an average season from Moss.


4. Jay Cutler would be a top-five fantasy QB: Touchdown!

I'll take three out of four every time when it comes to bold predictions.

Bold Prediction No. 1

Ahmad Bradshaw will be a top-15 fantasy RB in 2009

As I mentioned above, preseason rushers with opportunities to play have a good chance for success in the regular season. It's just common sense, but you have to look at the stats with enough perspective to understand which players' performances are meaningful. Let's first delve into the players not named Michael Turner and Tim Hightower on this list before we get into Bradshaw's merits:

As I have mentioned before, NFL RBs are a lot like NBA shooting guards. There are few available spots, but a lot of talent. It is one of the easiest positions to find an adequate substitute for the NFL. This is why Seattle could afford to wait so long to acquire a quality RB of Edgerrin James' caliber. Everyone knows James can still play, but it's more of a financial issue for organizations. An NFL team would rather give its young talent a chance to shine and pay less over a longer period of time than pay more money to sign a bigger name for a shorter term. Understanding this reality should give you the right perspective about the players on this list. All of these players have potential value - just not for this season. Here's how I narrowed them down.

Not this year (but maybe next): These runners showed most of their wares in the second halves of preseason games competing with other players on the bubble to make a regular season roster. This level of competition has the speed, knowledge, and intensity that are more within the range of a college all-star game. When these players get more opportunities to shine with a first-team offense it is time to pay more attention. Lynell Hamilton, P.J. Hill, Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, and Lex Hilliard are fourth quarter wonders that aren't worth a spot on even a deep dynasty squad. They can do yeoman's work if called upon, but a lot has to happen for the opportunity to arise.

Tyrell Sutton and Kory Sheets are versatile performers with higher ceilings than the other backs I just mentioned, but Sutton is competing with Kregg Lumpkin, another back with a higher ceiling for the final roster spot with the Packers and Sheets isn't as good of a between the tackles runner as Glenn Coffee. Both Sutton and Sheets are players to remember in a couple of years, but they're a year or two away from potential fantasy relevance.

On The Third Rung (But The Climb Isn't Far): Most of these runners are first-tier waiver wire options if something goes awry with their team's running game and they often worth holding onto in deeper leagues. The difference between them and true handcuff/quality RBBC contributors is they need an additional opportunity to earn carries. Danny Ware and Tashard Choice fit this description to a T. I know a lot of fantasy owners who just gush over both backs. If you could do a mash-up of Ware's athleticism and Choice's football IQ and intensity, you would have a quality NFL starter. However, they both sit behind quality starters and excellent complements capable of assuming a starting role. Both players will get some playing time, but they are nothing more than desperation starters on a weekly basis if their players ahead of them remain healthy.

Javon Ringer and Gartrell Johnson have the skills to be future co-starters in an RBBC and if they are thrust into the lineup earlier than their teams hoped, they could surprise. In terms of talent, I like both more than Ware and they are on relatively equal footing with Choice. Mike Bell is also a player I would put on similar footing as Choice. With Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush dealing with injuries, Bell is a player I would pick at the end of some drafts and keep at the top of my waiver wire list. Like Choice, we've seen Bell perform well against first-string competition and that makes a big difference when you're looking for safe free agent plays.

Rung Two (But Not RBBC guys): Rashard Mendenhall, Samkon Gado, and Glenn Coffee will all get the job done for you if called upon, but they each have clear deficiencies before they can become long-term starters. Mendenhall has the most upside to develop into a fantasy star, but he has shown he's not quite ready for prime time just yet. Although they have no real competition from a third runner on the depth chart, I'm not as high on them as the two backs below and only Mendenhall is a player I would even draft higher than the very late rounds.

In A Trio, But Upside Too High to Ignore: On the other hand, rookie Mike Goodson and James Davis aren't proven commodities but they are performing well enough that they are projected to see similar opportunities as Danny Ware and Tashard Choice. With Jonathan Stewart still fighting his Achilles issues and Jerome Harrison not seizing his initial opportunity, both Goodson and Davis could see significantly more time than some expect. Both have the skills to be every down backs. I like Davis' opportunity to see significant carries just a bit more because of his overall preseason performances as he competes on a weaker depth chart than Carolina.

Leon Washington: I like Washington's chances to be a top-24 RB because of his receiving skills and the Jets strong offensive line. I just don't like his chances against eight-man fronts we'll be certain to see with Mark Sanchez as the starting QB. He'll occasionally break some long runs in these situations, but I believe Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones will hold Washington back just enough that he may have the Barry Sanders effect coined by Marshall Faulk, but not Barry Sanders' stats. Coach Ryan will use Washington more, but I'm not quite sold on even a Brian Westbrook-type of role unless Jones and Greene get hurt.

Then Why Ahmad Bradshaw

I'm a huge believer in Bradshaw's skills between the tackles. He has excellent vision, short-area quickness, and acceleration and I believe these are more important than strength when running inside. Stamina is really the only question about Bradshaw over the course of an entire season as a load-carrier. This is where most backs with Bradshaw's size begin to add weight to their core and legs. They need more stamina with their explosiveness. However, I think as long as Bradshaw is healthy, he'll see just enough carries to be a significant fantasy producer, but not enough to wear him down.

I should tell you that I am a big-time skeptic when it comes to the durability of freakishly large backs like Brandon Jacobs. It is Jacobs' size that is as much of a liability as it is an asset. Because he's so big, he's as strong as the linebackers (and some of the lineman) that tackle him. His strength is carrying the pile, but the longer a player stays upright and carrying defenders, the more opportunities other players have to make big hits on a slowed target. He also becomes more susceptible to players pulling him in a variety of unnatural directions for tendons, joints, and ligaments should go.

Smaller players may not be able to carry a pile or intimidate a safety with the possibility of a head-on collision, but they can avoid more direct collisions. This is something Ahmad Bradshaw is as adept at as at least half the starting RBs in the league. Watch his preseason performances versus first-team, defenses this year and you'll see a player with a lot of DeAngelo Williams' qualities. The only think I believe that separates Williams from Bradshaw is his balance. Bradshaw's is good; Williams' is among the best in the league.

If Jacobs remains healthy, Bradshaw has played too well not to get 10-12 opportunities per game. If Jacobs gets hurt, expect Bradshaw and Danny Ware to have a 55-45 percentage split in touches. This will obviously make Ware a valuable player, but thinking Bradshaw falls back to a third-down back is falling into the incorrect stereotype of what others presume a smaller back can or can't accomplish. It's vision and acceleration that stands out with the best backs in the NFL, and Bradshaw has demonstrated enough of those to be a bona fide fantasy starter. With the Giants offensive line and a developing passing game, I think his chances are good to produce like one with or without Jacobs in the fold.

Bold Prediction No. 2

Jared Cook will be a starter-worthy fantasy TE

Although Cook hasn't seen much time with the first team offense until the third preseason game, the Titans have gushed over what he's displayed the entire offseason. He doesn't seem like a great candidate to become this reliable of a fantasy weapon because he is one of three quality receiving tight ends on the Titans roster. However, he has some unique skill sets that will make him a bigger contributor than many fantasy owners project. Cook worked extensively in mini camp and early in training camp with the wide receivers and he is used split wide and in the slot in several formations. His size and leaping ability alone make him a great match up problem for corners and safeties.

Nate Washington's injury further opens the door for the Titans to use Cook more extensively, especially with fellow rookie Kenny Britt starting in Washington's place. Britt has good athleticism, but his new role as starter is by necessity rather than performance. The coaching staff said prior to the preseason that Britt would need more time to develop. Now that he's forced into the line up and flashing some quality work, the language has softened to the National Football Post quoting Jeff Fisher as saying, "He has a lot ahead of him, but he is at a point now where the ability is showing up and the playmaking ability is also there. He just needs to play and get opportunities."

I believe the Titans will showcase Cook far more in the regular season than they have thus far. Jermichael Finley is the "sleeper" on everyone's lips right now, and rightfully so. I would also say Finley, Jeremy Shockey, and Todd Heap (more on him in a moment) all could outperform the mid-tier starters like Chris Cooley, Owen Daniels, and John Carlson as long as they stay healthy. The one guy no one is talking about is Cook, but I think he'll make a pretty strong opening statement.

Bold Prediction No. 3

Vince Young will have a positive impact on the Titans '09 season as its QB

As a friendly public service announcement before I begin this segment, I am a Titans fan who was disappointed that they didn't draft Jay Cutler. That said, I think most of us are guilty of rushing to judgment with Vince Young. I know last year was a complete disaster. However, he's not the first QB to implode and later turn it around.

We are an impatient society that is perpetually living ahead of itself. We're always looking for what's next: the next star, the next prodigy, and the next big thing. It has gotten to a point that we're so intent on being two steps ahead that we leave lots of real quality behind only to lament what we missed in hindsight.

One thing symptomatic of our undue obsession with youth is having unrealistic expectations for them. In the NFL we often expect people barely five years into adulthood to have the type of poise few people in our society could remotely show, and do it in situations that less than a percent of people have to face. When these guys to do so, we denigrate them for not having the wisdom of someone a decade their senior.

Vince Young screwed up big time. He lost the fans. He lost his teammates. And he lost his confidence. However, he's not alone. There are several quarterbacks with either up and down starts to their career or looked like abject failures for more than a couple of seasons:

Player A

Player A was considered too stupid to play quarterback. Fans and critics alike believed this passer would never be more than a good athlete with a big arm. His likeness was hung in effigy at his home stadium, and when you look at sub-50 percent completion percentages and 46 interceptions to 19 scores in his first two years, I understand why few people believed in him. The fact that he didn't even have a positive TD to INT ratio for his first five seasons is an incredible testament to the patience of this organization. Now this QB's likeness is enshrined in Canton. The four-time Super Bowl Champion with these horrible stats was none other than Terry Bradshaw.

Player B

Player B looked pretty good in his first season. In fact, he was rookie of the year. However, his eight-score, 25-INT, sophomore campaign followed up by two more seasons with more turnovers than scores did him in. He bounced around a bit after his original team got rid of him and his confidence went in the tank. Eventually, this signal caller made his way to a team known to take in castoffs and oddballs and he led them to a Super Bowl Championship. Jim Plunkett may have not had the carrier most expected, but he did turn things around enough to be a valuable contributor.

Player C

Player C had 51 interceptions to only 30 touchdowns in his first four seasons with paltry yardage totals to add insult to injury. Hard to believe this QB would eventually have three straight 4000-yard seasons, including a 4800-yard, 33-score season. This Hall Of Fame QB with a putrid beginning that would have never flown in our impatient society is Dan Fouts.

Player D

Shall we move to a more recent era of football? Player D was another mobile guy who looked pretty inept during his first two seasons. The only thing this guy could seemingly do well was run. He was brought to his second team as a backup to an all-time great where it was likely he would play out his career in anonymity, holding a clipboard or maybe cleanup time in a blowout. This guy with the 53 percent completion rate in his first two seasons had eight seasons over 65 percent, including a magnificent year with a 70 percent rate in 1994. Not bad, Steve Young, not bad.

Player E

Player E also started in a similar era as Young and he wasn't much better. If I remember correctly, he took a beating in year one, and then split time with a brainy, but weaker armed QB that played in college for Player E's head coach. It was no guarantee Player E would turn into the player that led his team to three Super Bowl victories. I'm sure Troy Aikman would have liked to forget those early years, but they helped him become the player he was.

Player F

Are these players still not current enough for you? I really don't believe the current era argument matters that much, because fans were no more patient in the 70s, 80s, and 90s than they are today. It's ownership that lacks the patience. Public relations and short-term profits take precedence over substance-just look at our financial crisis, Bernie Madoff, Enron, Tyco, and WorldCom. At least what NFL owners are doing is legal, although it's wisdom is sometimes questionable. Player F didn't have the high expectations of a Bradshaw or Aikman, but he landed with a team in a short-passing, west coast system where a 60 percent completion rate is not as difficult to attain. The fact he threw for as many interceptions as touchdowns was disturbing, because he had a penchant for taking too many risks. However three-time MVP Brett Favre did win a Super Bowl and lead his team to another. He may be the all-time interception leader, but he's still in demand.

Player G

Player G was a big-time college quarterback drafted by a GM known for his foresight. However, there were big concerns about his arm strength, and after decent second year, Player G was summarily written off around the league as a guy lacking the physical talent to be a true franchise QB. He regressed in year three and when a new GM took over, it was clear his days were going to come to an end. A funny thing happened in Player G's lame duck season: he had a career-year with 27 scores and 7 interceptions, earning a berth to the Pro Bowl and demonstrated he might be the most accurate QB in the game. He validated that notion with his new team, finishing last year with 5000 yards passing despite not a single receiver of his gained 1000 yards in the process. Drew Brees managed to overcome meager expectations.

So Vince Young is in some respects, elite company. I agree he didn't help himself much by telling a national publication that he would win a Super Bowl and have a Hall of Fame career. His maturity does need a lot of work. He clearly gave up on his team last year and didn't work the way he was supposed to. However, Vince Young still has room and time to grow up. His preseason has been up and down, but what I have liked is that he has followed up bad plays with good ones. I think Young will have his day again. He has the talent and I think he's getting a chance to regain his confidence. He may never turn into a great passer, but with his physical skills, developing into a good passer might be enough.

Kerry Collins may be in great shape, but it doesn't take as much for a player of his tenure to get banged up. Because Young is still maturing, it may only take a boost of confidence for him to turn things around - and his teammates, media, and fans. The Titans can afford him two things a lot of teams can't: good pass protection and a strong ground game. I don't think it takes any more guts and fortitude to lead a team to a BCS National Championship than it does a Super Bowl. Both are played on amazingly large stages. The qualities in Vince Young that helped him lead the Longhorns are still there for him, but he has to have the maturity to refine the raw skills and deal with failure until he develops into a good enough QB to use his natural gifts.

I think he is in as supportive an environment as he will ever find in the NFL. Jeff Fisher has more tenure than any coach in the NFL and Bud Adams clearly wanted Vince Young. Both are as close to old school-style leaders of an NFL organization as you'll get. They weathered a salary cap storm in the earlier part of this decade; they sat Steve McNair for a couple of seasons; and they built this team methodically. Considering I rattled off a half dozen QBs that most people at first didn't think looked like much and their teams allowed them to mature as players and men, I'm not ready to pronounce the death of Vince Young's promising - yes, promising - career.

Bold Prediction No. 4

Steve Slaton will suffer a sophomore slump

The Texans rookie RB had to be the biggest surprise of the fantasy rookies. Not often do former football players the likes of a Troy Aikman display the level of honest shock that he did last year when Slaton ran like the West Virginia Mountaineers had been using the I-formation for his entire college career.

Even as he gained nearly 1300 yards and nine scores on the ground last year, some might argue that Slaton accomplished this feat because he is a big-play runner, and as a big-play runner he's more of a boom-bust type of fantasy player. Before I give you a true explanation as to why I believe Slaton will bust, let's examine this first point by comparing Slaton's games and Adrian Peterson's games and adjust their yards per carry averages by factoring out runs of 20 yards or more:

Steve Slaton's 2008 Rushing Yardage By Game

Adrian Peterson's 2008 Rushing Yardage By Game

Slaton had 11 games where his adjusted yards per game average were less than three yards per carry. On the surface, some might think it validates the claim that he's not a reliable player because if he doesn't have at least 1-2 big-play rushes, he's not an effective runner. This is somewhat true in the case that last year, if Slaton didn't hit big on 1-2 runs per game he probably wouldn't be starting. However, the same case could be made with Adrian Peterson, one of the best RBs for the past two seasons. He had seven games where his adjusted yards per game average amounted to less than three yards per carry. Although one could argue that Peterson was 25 percent better in terms of more games with reasonably decent adjusted yards per carry average, I look at the stats and believe that you can't get too fixated on what a player's "real" production might be if you factored out the big plays, because the player earned those yards. It might be interesting to factor out the big plays and see which runners had the highest average, but it is not what has me cautious about Slaton.

It is how Slaton has looked during the preseason that is a concern. Part of the issue might be mitigated by the fact that the Texans' projected starters on the offensive line got to play together for the first time this preseason in game three, which is usually the dress rehearsal for the season. Game four is usually the contest that showcases players on the bubble, so the guys up front might need a few games to get on track during the regular season. However, I thought Slaton hasn't appeared as quick between the tackles or in open space, which might have to do with his conscious decision to gain weight. If Slaton has lost some acceleration, then his frequency of generating a big play is likely to decrease, and that will make him pretty ordinary.

Most people have written off Chris Brown, or at least want to show caution about him due to his injury history. However, Slaton only had five games with at least 20 carries despite the Texans having no one else to turn to. Adrian Peterson had 12 games. If I'm looking for a potential No. 1 fantasy RB, I want a player who has more chances to reach 20 carries. It's pretty clear that the Texans never viewed Slaton as a workhorse and despite the fact the second-year runner has added more weight to be one, I don't think he's going to make a convincing argument.