The Weekly Gut Check - Fantasy Dumpster Diving

  Posted 8/28 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Discerning the Preseason Noise From the Deafening Silence

Most fantasy writers will tell you two things:

1. Pay attention to what happens in the preseason
2. Don't pay too much attention to what happens in the preseason

This begs the question: How do you know when to do rule No. 1 without ignoring the tenets of rule No. 2? Worthwhile fantasy players emerge in the preseason, and with this time of the month being the most fertile for drafts, owners often miss the opportunity to acquire players before they become high-demand, difference makers off the waiver wire.

Some of these players are shouting their case with their preseason play. Others are quietly doing good work behind the scenes. And still others we haven't heard so much as a peep, but their relative silence shouldn't fool you.

My fiancée, who knows nothing about football other than the fact she has the natural tendency to enjoy plays that most often resulted in the NFL imposing fines on players the likes of Chuck Cecil and Rodney Harrison, wondered aloud how I could fare well in a recent draft where I was picking ninth. "Eight guys ahead of you might all pick quarterbacks and you could wind up with Screech," she said, asking how I wound up with such an unfortunate draft position.
I told her a dice roll determined my spot.

"Who made the dice roll?"

"My co-staffer Jason Wood."

"What does he do for a living?"

"He's a fund manager."

She rolled her eyes and sighed, "I rest my case." No hard feelings, Wood. She has an accounting background, and 30 seconds later she made the observation that Kevin Spacey is "nothing but Pee Wee Herman after speech and etiquette courses."

I'll let you make that call whether she's right about Spacey and Herman, but the point I'm making is that discerning the preseason noise (the Pee Wee Hermans) from the deafening silence (the Kevin Spaceys) is a potential difference maker in the late rounds of drafts. You can call this fantasy dumpster diving, because these late-round picks and waiver wire candidates can enhance your draft, even if you're picking from an unenviable position.

Lots of Noise, Little Game

These are players we're hearing a lot about as they enjoy good training camps and/or preseasons. However, at this point in their careers it's highly unlikely they will transfer their production into the regular season. These are the fantasy equivalent of "red herrings":

• RB Aaron Brown, Detroit: Brown has speed, quickness, and agility in the open field. Put him in open space and he can take it the distance just like he did against the Falcons in the fourth quarter of the Lions' first preseason game. However in memory of Stanley Kaplan who passed away this week, "Aaron Brown" is to "contact" as "Santa Claus" is to "Hanukkah". Simply put, Brown can't help himself but to try to bounce every run outside. This may have worked occasionally at TCU, but it won't fly in the NFL.


• RB LaRod Stephens-Howling, Arizona: If you get points for return yardage, Stephens-Howling an excellent late round draft pick. He has moves upon and moves, and if tenacity and heart were the sole determinants of success, this former Pitt Panther would have been a blue chip prospect. Just don't confuse him as a potential fantasy RB any time soon. If he learns to be more decisive from the backfield, he could have a shot to surprise in a few years as a third down back. Right now, he's not even worth a roster spot on a dynasty squad unless your scoring rules meet the condition I stated at the beginning.


• RB Javon Ringer, Tennessee: Ringer has looked good against second team defenses and he has played with an aggressiveness and balance that has teammates like Kerry Collins telling the media that he would like to see the rookie get some looks with the first team. If it happens in the final two weeks of the preseason, I wouldn't be surprised if he fares well enough that the Titans maintain their excitement about his future. However, I don't believe he'll take the goal line and short yardage duties away from LenDale White. If your draft is after the Titans' third preseason game and you like what you see from Ringer, maybe add him to the end of your draft board. If not, he's strictly a waiver wire option. Either way, he's not as a good of a bet as other backs I'll talk about later.


• WR Marko Mitchell, Washington: He has the dimensions we fantasy owners love to see from wide receivers at 6-4, 218 lbs., and both the Redskins coaching staff and veterans Clinton Portis and Santana Moss have good things to say about Mitchell. They think he could be the surprise of training camp because their cornerbacks are having trouble dealing with his height. Funny, but I remember Mitchell at Nevada as the receiver who had great difficulty timing his leaps on fade routes in the red zone, and the ball too frequently bouncing off his hands. To his credit, he does use decent hands technique when he does catch the football, and he has enough speed to be a threat on the perimeter of the defense. So it's understandable why DBs have trouble with him in the red zone right now. Still, that doesn't make Mitchell more than an end of the depth chart WR in 2009. He's not an agile route runner, and he consistently didn't show the effort to become a technician while in college. Let's see how he does next year after he's had a season practicing square-ins, skinny posts, physically beating the jam, and taking big hits.


• WR Dwayne Jarrett, Carolina: Not that his play has been remotely stellar, but the fact he is from USC and got the opportunity to start in place of Steve Smith in the first preseason game has some holding out hope that Jarrett will eventually become a quality receiver. I'm holding out hope that you will tip me 20 percent for my services after you compete against Chase Stuart in fantasy football and win $100,000. However, I'm pretty sure that is more likely to happen than Jarrett will become a consistently good possession receiver (and I'm not putting down any deposits on luxury items in the near future). Jarrett has the talent and he has been in the league long enough to work on his game, but thus far we have seen little return. This is because he hasn't put forth the effort.


• WR Mohammed Massaquoi, Cleveland: There's a lot working against him. He is a rookie with a history of inconsistency when the games count and Cleveland simply has more reliable receivers on their depth chart. Massoquoi will have the occasional outburst of production that will grab your attention, but give him another year or two before you jump on his bandwagon. His lapses will drive you, and the Browns, to madness.

The Volume is Just Right and the Music Sounds Good

• WR Robert Meachem, New Orleans: Here is a player I have consistently cited as an example of being drafted too high because he was a great physical talent, but didn't know how to play the position. His years at Tennessee were spent in offense gaining big yardage off short passes and letting balls bounce off his hands over the middle. However, Meachem deserves a ton of credit for approaching teammate David Patten after his rookie season. He asked if he could join the veteran receiver in his offseason training program to learn what it takes to become a true professional. In 2008, Meachem showed flashes of explosive play, averaging 24.5 yards per catch on 12 receptions, but he still wasn't more than a perimeter threat (are you listening, Marko Mitchell fans?). This year, Drew Brees has stated that Meachem is developing into a more complete receiver that they can rely on as more than a deep threat. The third-year receiver proved this point in the Saints ' first two preseason games, getting deep on a 64-yard score in game one but also making a fine, leaping, over the shoulder grab on a deep out for 17 yards in game two. He's still a little rough around the edges, but his work ethic and physical skill are beginning to turn the tide and he has a strong chance to be the No. 3 receiver. Meachem makes a nice late round pick because Marques Colston and Lance Moore are just months removed from surgeries and Drew Brees is prolific enough that there could be room enough for three highly productive receivers if the conditions are right. The probably aren't with Bush, Thomas, and Shockey all getting their share of targets, but Meachem after round 15 still has a nice ring to it.


• WR Troy Williamson, Jacksonville: Another 2006 draft pick that qualified under my "Robert Meachem" clause -players that NFL GMs were overly enamored with athleticism and put receiving skills on the backburner. After a couple of disappointing years in Minnesota, Williamson turned up in Jacksonville in 2008, doing little to distinguish himself. Teammate Mike Sims-Walker has been the receiver most fantasy owners are expecting to take hold of the No. 2 spot on the depth chart and finally fulfill his potential. The problem is Sims-Walker has been as durable as an egg meeting concrete. This has opened the door for Williamson to begin the preseason as a starter on the depth chart and he has played lights-out ever since. His greatest strength is as a perimeter option, ala Chris Henry in the Houshmandzadeh years, but if Mike Sims-Walker continues to stay brittle, Williamson is Jacksonville's only veteran option to line up next to Torry Holt.


• RB Mike Goodson, Carolina: Jonathan Stewart's weeks of missed practice with soreness to his Achilles' tendon is troubling. At this point, I would say those owners who have drafted him in rounds five through eight are more likely to be wasting a pick. Goodson looked like the real deal as a freshman at Texas A&M, but problems with the coaching staff, poor surrounding talent, and inconsistency plagued the remainder of his college career. So far Goodson has made the most of his opportunity in the loaded Carolina backfield. What impressed me is that Goodson ran hard in his preseason effort against the Giants. Although he lost a fumble in the game, it was the result of high effort and not consistently poor ball protection. Later in the game, he proved he could protect the ball and play tough when he took a hard shot at the goal line at the end of his 14-yard run. He also had no fumbles the following week against Miami. As much as I like Jonathan Stewart's potential I think his future in Carolina will be stunted if Goodson continues to improve as his rookie season progresses. So far, I think the best deals when it comes to the Carolina backfield might just be to select DeAngelo Williams at the end of the first round (still a good value), skip Stewart this year, and land Goodson late.


• WR Deon Butler, Seattle: I saw his preseason game against Denver, and he looked like the receiver I saw make USC's defense look silly during the 2009 Rose Bowl, and wowed Footballguys and Draftguys TV analysts Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey. Remember, Deion Branch and Nate Burleson are both still limited to varying degrees with surgically repaired ACLs. Burleson appears the most ready of the two, but Butler provides a level of acceleration that the veteran never had prior to his injury. I hear the rumbles from people that Butler could be this year's Eddie Royal. Although Butler isn't as physically strong as Royal, he is almost as good of a route runner. Combine his skills and the risk factor of the other receivers on the depth chart and Butler is a reasonable, late-round rookie investment in re-drafts. Far more so than even the highly touted Michael Crabtree, who is inexplicably going in the mid-rounds of some drafts although he has no knowledge of his team's offense, and still hasn't agreed to a deal.


• RB James Davis, Cleveland: This might be the most obvious pick of the players on this list because there are so many things working in his favor right now. He was a highly touted freshman at Clemson, who subsequently split time with a speed demon in C.J. Spiller. Clemson had a spread offense tailor made for a scat back; not Davis' style. So Davis fell, although I would argue he has always been a better, every down NFL prospect than Spiller. So the first thing in his favor is that he'll be undervalued in most local leagues outside of the Cleveland, Ohio and Greenville, South Carolina areas. Next, is the fact he's already a better pass blocker than Mangini's mini camp favorite for complementary duty, Jerome Harrison. Third, Jamal Lewis has shown nice patience, but not a lot of burst in the preseason. Davis has run hard and shown enough acceleration to make big plays. Although counting on Cleveland's running game to carry your fantasy team will only be worthwhile if the passing game comes together, Davis could become a solid bye week option or trade bait if he significantly cuts into Lewis' workload or becomes the lead back even if the offense sputters overall.


• TE Jermichael Finley, Green Bay: The Packers offense has the balance and strong quarterback play to turn Finley into an overnight success in year two of his NFL career ALA Jason Witten. Finley isn't as good as Witten, but he has enough athleticism and skills to be a solid, No. 1 fantasy tight end at the cost of a late round pick. He has looked fluid in his routes and after the catch during the preseason and QB Aaron Rodgers appears to have more confidence in him. I thought for a player labeled as immature in his development at Texas, he showed a lot of natural football IQ: carrying out fakes to set up the play design, field vision, and patience securing the football before attempting to gain yardage after the catch.


• RB Glen Coffee, San Francisco: I want to tell you that Coffee's performance is just preseason noise. I want it to be the case so badly, because at Alabama I thought his perceived talent was inflated from having a great offensive line. I still believe this is the case, but one major thing in Coffee's favor is his patience, and aggressiveness to maximize every attempt. If the 49ers offensive line improves under coordinator Jimmy Raye's schemes, then Coffee should be a reliable No. 2 RB to Frank Gore. I don't believe he'll be studly for the long haul if Gore gets hurt, but he'll do a workmanlike job, maybe even averaging 4 yards per carry in the process. It's a lukewarm endorsement, but at the end of the draft you could do much worse, especially if you picked Gore.

Silent But Deadly

With these guys, we either haven't seen impressive performances in games, or if we have, they seem buried too deep on the depth chart to be worthwhile draft picks. However, I think it would be a mistake to overlook them because if their performances aren't as impressive as advertised I believe teams are either being careful with them or are hiding them from the opposition in games, but maximizing their opportunities in practice.

• TE Jared Cook, Tennessee: We have heard a lot about how thrilled Tennessee was to land a player of Cook's skills. Offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger has compared Cook to a young Shannon Sharpe and the talk around training camp is the rookie will be used as a receiver in a lot of sets this year. In the preseason Cook mostly got reps with the second and third team offensive units. He looked good when targeted, but the fact he didn't do his damage versus first-team defenses has kept his value extremely low. Cook will probably be available on the waiver wire of most leagues, but I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a high-demand free agent after he has a big game and flashes his great athleticism split wide or from the slot. I think he's going to be enough of a contributor in the offense that he could become one of the hottest fantasy starters at his position as fantasy owners make their stretch run.


• TE/FB James Casey, Houston: Gary Kubiak, former henchman of Mike Shanahan, has to love a player who can be a reliable receiver from the slot, at the line of scrimmage, or from the backfield. Casey is still learning how to be a decent in-line TE, but he's a good enough receiver with after the catch skills to be used in a variety of ways in an offense that has the weapons to make him a sneaky good option in single coverage. Unlike Cook, who I might draft, I would let Casey be a first-off-the-wire free agent early in the season if you see him get at least a few targets per game or if 1-2 targets come in the red area, he might be worth consideration.


• RB Mike Bell, New Orleans: I always liked Bell as a runner. As a rookie with Denver he demonstrated good acceleration, patience, and toughness. A few years later, he is making the most of his opportunity as a Saint. With Reggie Bush's knee a constant question mark until he proves otherwise, Bell is closer to assuming the starting role than less observant fantasy owners might think in an offense where he can have some big games.


• QB J.T. O'Sullivan, Cincinnati: A clear-cut, waiver wire player, O'Sullivan reminds me of a John Kitna, Jeff Garcia, or Brad Johnson because he has toiled in NFL Europe and bounced around numerous NFL teams paying his dues. O'Sullivan has shown flashes of good production in several stints and if Carson Palmer gets hurt, I think the Bengals have enough weapons to make O'Sullivan at least a high-end No. 2 QB in a 12-team league. Just remember his name because he has looked very impressive during the preseason, going 10 for 13 for 141 yards and a TD against the Patriots, and 9 for 11 for 100 yards and a score versus the Saints. As a guy who picked Palmer in multiple drafts this month I hope I don't need him, but he's my ace up my sleeve if the situation gets dire - well, maybe a Jack instead of an ace, but that's not a bad card.


• WR Mike Furrey, Cleveland: He is a great example of a player that I is "south-proof": if things go south with the offense, Furrey is the kind of receiver who will still get a lot of opportunities and make good on enough of them to be a relevant fantasy performer. Wes Welker is the ultimate "south-proof" guy and I think Furrey may start as the Browns' No. 3 WR, but I think after Braylon Edwards, he's the most polished receiver they have on a depth chart of young talents. Let your opponents take Terry Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi with their sly grins - I think Furrey will have a good chance of emerging as a solid reserve for your roster.


• QB Daunte Culpepper, Detroit: Based on what I've seen from both Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford, I believe Sanchez would have lost the competition to become starter to Culpepper if the rookies switched teams. Although Culpepper doesn't look like the athletic stud he was a decade ago, he has regained enough quickness through good conditioning and years removed from his knee injury to avoid the rush and get outside. Considering he has looked pretty good without Calvin Johnson in the lineup is enough reason for me to think Culpepper could be a solid No. 2 QB at a bargain bin price. There is always the threat that Stafford takes over within a matter of weeks after the season starts and this is what is driving down Culpepper's stock. But if you have a strong No. 1 QB on your roster and want to load up on other positions, Culpepper is a worthy option with Calvin Johnson on the receiving end of his passes.

Updated Crank Projections

Stock Up

• Ryan Grant: I was bullish on him this spring, but had a temporary bout of skittishness as summer came. Because I still believe Green Bay will be a prolific passing offense, I don't think the odds of Grant becoming a top 12 RB are as strong as other players. However, he's a solid No. 2 RB I wouldn't hesitate to pick in the third round.


• Ahmad Bradshaw: See last week's column.


• Leon Washington: Coach Ryan is going to make good on his statements to the media the Washington will be a much bigger part of the offense. He will be an excellent check down option for Sanchez, and he demonstrated his ability to be rugged between the tackles against the vaunted Ravens defense.


• Edgerrin James: There was a pretty good debate in the Shark Pool about James' place in the pantheon of the decade's elite rushers. Some Footballguys believe James was a product of the Colts prolific offense and the productivity of Dominic Rhodes supports their argument. However, others think James was one of the best between the tackle runners of this era and he was as important a cog in the Colts offense as Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. Personally, side with those who think James was a terrific runner. His production dipped in Arizona, but I believe the Cardinals offensive line is below average. Seattle's offensive line isn't that great, either. Yet, I think it is good enough for an older James to push Julius Jones.


• Daunte Culpepper, Troy Williamson, and Jermichael Finley: See earlier portion of this piece.


• Shaun Hill: With the 49ers starting job wrapped up, Hill has enough firepower to be a decent No. 2 RB in fantasy leagues, and he naturally makes the list.


• Laurent Robinson: He has wrapped up the No. 2 spot in St. Louis and should begin to show the general public why he was a highly regarded, young prospect among NFL coaches who watched him in camp.

Stock Down

• Jonathan Stewart: You do the math with DeAngelo Williams looking great, Mike Goodson off to an impressive start, and Stewart unable to practice.


• Jason Campbell: The No. 2 WR spot still seems a bit shaky and there's too much defending Campbell in the media without enough happening on the field to support it.