The Weekly Gut Check - Must-Picks And The All-Gut Check Team

  Posted 8/19 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

I have done the analysis from every angle up to this point: rookie impact based on hours of film study, stat-based, breakout candidates, draft day strategies using ranking turnover trends, and research into what makes players consistently high performers. However despite the research and what the groupthink say, you know there are certain players who hold your attention. You can't fully explain why you have that good feeling things are going to happen-really good things-and you didn't have to read Malcolm Gladwell for a complete understanding of the process behind it.

It's gut-check time, and I'm going to share with you players at each fantasy position (IDP included) who have my spider senses tingling. Admittedly, some are obvious picks. I call them "must-picks," and I only have a handful of them. Others aren't so obvious, and there are enough of them to comprise an All-Preseason Gut Check Squad.

My fantasy player radar might not be good enough to convert into practical use for the FBI or Pentagon I have sacrificed enough of my short-term memory for this hobby to believe my football sensory perception is rooted in good soil. Some of these views will bear fruit that's ripe. Others might not be ready to pick from the tree. I'm sure (as always) more of that fruit than I'd like will fall to the earth and rot. However, those that are ripe will hopefully (and often do) make up for the rest.

Don't over-think it. Don't get too wrapped up in value and wait one more round. If these guys are available at the right time and place, take them.

Must-Picks

Quarterback

• Tom Brady: Brady makes everything look easy. He is as equally polished with the media as he is in the pocket at ground zero of a jailbreak blitz. Thursday night in Philadelphia, Brady made it look easy. His line did a great job, but it doesn't take anything away from Brady. I don't remember Phillip Rivers or Carson Palmer looking this good when they returned from their ACL tears. The difference is when these guys got hurt. In comparison, Brady was spotted four extra months of rehab time.
  
  Back to the point about his effortlessness, the reason Brady is so polished is because he combines a great work ethic with brains. He works hard and smart, and with the attitude that he has to prove himself every day. One of the prevailing themes you'll see with my "Must-Picks" is the concept of a man on a mission. If you've read or watched anything about Brady over the years, you know he has been fanatical about being ready.
  
  The temperature of the fantasy community has gone from Brady as a potential elite QB, to being the consensus No. 1 QB off the board, to potentially returning to his fantasy dominance of 2007. We're beginning to see Brady return to a top-ten status in drafts. Pretty bold moves considering he'll have to outgun a healthy Drew Brees - an obvious must-pick I don't have to list in this piece, because he is the most accurate QB in football, and in sync with his offensive-minded coach.
  
  Still, most people are too cautious to predict 50 scores out of Brady - I am. However, I have to admit when I look at the Pats lineup of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Fred Taylor, Joey Galloway, and Chris Baker, 50 doesn't seem unreasonable. Just from eyeballing these guys, 38 TDs seems probable and that is enough for me to consider Brady in late-round one to mid-round two.
  
  NFL.com's Michael Fabiano wrote in his piece after the Pats first preseason game that picking Brady this high is a mistake. He cites statistical history showing that QBs with high production don't tend to repeat. The problem is in this instance Fabiano is too myopic with his statistical analysis. He doesn't include Brady as a player in the middle of a 3-4 year window of great production. This is the broader perspective of the stats he didn't fully explore in his piece. I know, because I studied this situation years ago when Daunte Culpepper had his amazing season and discovered that there was usually a window of seasons with super-high statistical output, although frequently some of these players suffered injuries that resulted in a temporary down year followed by a rebound the next. No disrespect intended to Fabiano; just stating the facts. Brady is a must-pick earlier in leagues with six points per touchdown and slightly later with four points per score. His downside is too high to regret it.

Running Back

• Felix Jones: When you can have a player who has a strong chance to be better than what people have hoped from Reggie Bush and at a greater value, then you take him. I'm not a Cowboys fan, but Jones is one of the players I can't wait to watch this year because he is about to comprise one of the top, one-two punches in football. When it comes to the "Dashes" who complement the "Smashes", Jerious Norwood might be faster; Reggie Bush might catch the ball better; and Darren McFadden might have more hype, but I have a feeling Felix Jones is going to have them all in his fantasy rear view mirror. The reason is because he is superior to all of them between the tackles.
  
  
• Ray Rice: Here is another guy on a mission. You don't show up to training camp bigger, stronger, more explosive, and sporting a Mohawk and a tattoo that says "Chosen One" unless you are prepared to fight. I think Rice knew before the 2008 season ended that he had an opportunity to take the top spot on the depth chart in 2009, and not look back. He had to see that coach John Harbaugh thinks Willis McGahee is an underachiever running out of time and Le'Ron McClain was more of a versatile fullback who exceeded expectations. Rice had to see the door was cracked. All he had to do was get ready to blow it wide open.
  
  He impressed the coaching staff and teammates with his effort and pass protection during the training camp of his rookie year and he demonstrated strong receiving skills and some explosiveness. The problem is he couldn't sustain that explosiveness throughout the season. He needed to build more muscle, and that is exactly what he did. With Derrick Mason and Todd Heap as the only proven receivers on the Ravens roster - and Heap has a history of health issues - Rice could very possibly be the second option in this passing offense. I think as a pick between the fourth and sixth rounds he's too promising to pass up.

Wide Receiver

• Chad Ochocinco: The Bengals WR is both a 2009 coming of age story and a man on a mission. We all know the Bengal formerly known as Chad Johnson was a fun loving receiver with a great work ethic. He and Carson Palmer were eager to develop into a pitch and catch combo that rivaled Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. Then the T.O. effect transformed Johnson into Ochocinco and this incarnation of the WR seemed to be more concerned about being a superstar than a winner.
  
  You could argue that his desire to leave Cincinnati was a sign he wanted to be a winner, but I believe it was more the complaints of an immature man. He stopped wanting to work to help his team get better. His actions demonstrated he was more concerned with being a star than a winner. Eventually, he wanted success handed to him. In fact by his own admission, he stopped working out to stay on top of his game during his summer media tantrums of 2008. His preseason injury, and subsequent lackluster performance is now history.
  
  Two things happened that I believe brought Ochocinco back from the brink of being the NFL equivalent of Brittany Spears: Marvin Lewis and Denzel Washington. It's a strange combination of people, but we are talking about Chad Ochocinco (and America), and I suppose anything is possible.
  
  Lewis played the father figure who wouldn't budge no matter how poorly Ochocinco behaved. Despite the receiver's pleas and demands, the Bengals said Ochocinco would have to honor his contract. When the season was over, it was T.J. Houshmandzadeh who the Bengals allowed to leave town.
  
  I believe this will ultimately be the right move both for Ochocinco's career and the football team. Houshmandzadeh is an excellent possession receiver, but his down field success was linked more to the threat of Ochocinco and Chris Henry than his own vertical skills. If Cincinnati wanted to have any hope of turning around their offense quickly, trading Ochocinco would have been the wrong move. It's much easier to find a receiver with Houshmandzadeh's skills than it is to find with Ochocinco's versatility. When his mind is right, Ochocinco is among the top ten receivers in this league. If Lewis wanted any chance to keep his job, he would have to keep the respect of his team. The only way to do this would be to stand fast and refuse to honor Ochocinco's demands, or else he'd lose the rest of this team.
  
  Denzel Washington's role was an unexpected one. According to Yahoo! Sports, Ochocinco met Washington by happenstance at a Lakers' game:

  In one of those typically incestuous Tinseltown celebrity convergences, an impromptu conversation between an athlete who changed his name to enhance his fame and an actor who need only drop his first name to receive the red-carpet treatment.

  Yet when Cincinnati Bengals wideout Chad Ochocinco met Denzel Washington at a Los Angeles Lakers game this past spring, it wasn't the mutual fawning session you might expect. Rather than compliment the receiver formerly known as Johnson for his athletic excellence, Washington called him out, portraying Ochocinco's lost 2008 season as a self-inflicted nightmare.

  "He got on me about the way I handled myself last offseason," Ochocinco recalled in a phone conversation last week. "He wasn't being gentle. He said, 'You know what? You need to straighten up and stop fussin' about something you have no control over. Make it fun again because it sure looks better when you do it that way.' That's all I needed to hear, especially from somebody like him."

  Like it or not, a significant portion of our society views celebrities as role models, so the fact that Denzel Washington could act as a positive role model to Chad Ochocinco through an honest and constructive assessment of the receiver's behavior was a good thing. The Bengals receiver clearly took Washington's words to heart, because he has shown up in great shape, had whatever necessary conversations he needed with Lewis, Palmer, and his teammates, and he looks like the receiver we have been used to seeing for years.
  
  I've had Ochocinco on teams almost every season because I know he's one of those players who can make plays beating you deep or taking the hits over the middle. He's clearly burning to prove to himself that he's still an excellent receiver. Camp reports reflect the team seems more cohesive than ever before, which I think is the result of what happens when the vocal dissenter has lost his battle and rejoined the team in a positive way. I think the Bengals offense is ready to return the unit that made them a playoff-caliber team. Cincinnati might not get there in the win-loss column, but I believe the offense won't be the problem. Ochocinco is still a relative bargain in fantasy drafts, take advantage of the fact that you can get a top-10 receiver a round or two later than your peers.

• Percy Harvin: I fully understand that rookie wide receivers are extremely high-risk fantasy options. However, this rookie is too versatile and electric to ignore. With Bernard Berrian slowed by a hamstring injury and Sidney Rice still slowly coming into his own, Harvin becomes even more important to the success of the Vikings passing game.
  
  Let your opponents talk about Harvin's character, cite his absence from the NFL Rookie Symposium, and remind you he missed the Vikings' first preseason game. One thing he isn't missing is the ball thrown to him in practice - yes, practice. Harvin might be the Allen Iverson of the NFL in playmaking, but he has established himself as the model athlete and teammate that the Vikings were told he was.
  
  He has also shown he can get run routes and get deep. I believe Harvin is going to remind people of a mix between Steve Smith and Reggie Bush this year. Superstar production is too much to ask for, but I think he's the odds-on favorite to be Rookie of The Year. Even if you don't have to reach for him as your No. 3 WR, I believe you'll get a player who will rival Adrian Peterson as the Vikings' best player on the field in any given week. Prior to the news that Favre might return, I was going to say the Packer-great better not watch any Vikings games, because when he sees Harvin he's going to be depressed he turned down the opportunity.

Tight End

• Greg Olsen: Jay Cutler locks onto receivers is as obvious as statement as saying the Pope is Catholic. The Bears best receivers are its tight ends. And Olsen is the one proven guy that can catch the ball in traffic. Add in the fact that Olsen has enough athleticism to get downfield and you do the math. Don't try to steal him at this point because everyone knows he's undervalued. If you hope he falls to you in round eight so you can claim you're a draft day genius, think again. Take him between rounds six and seven, and be grateful you're getting a guy with a reasonable shot of equaling the production of Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Tony Gonzalez who were drafted 1-3 rounds earlier.

The All-Gut Check Squad

Quarterback

• Carson Palmer: You have to admire the Bengals QB. Whether the preferred method has been injury or self-destruction, the Bengals have had their share of guys who have chosen one of these two paths over the years: Odell Thurman, David Pollack, Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, and Chad Ochocinco are just a few of them. However, Palmer and Lewis, and the Bengals organization have done something that I think most people have glossed over: they stayed the course.
  
  They didn't ditch Chris Henry despite his multiple troubles and they didn't fold to Ochocinco's tantrums to trade him. As I mentioned before, sometimes the most important thing a leader can do is stand up to the biggest troublemaker of the bunch to send a message to the rest of the team. One way of doing this is getting rid of the guy. However, that is what Ochocinco wanted, and I already explained why trading him rather than Houshmandzadeh would have been a bad idea. The Bengals organization led by Mike Brown, Lewis, and Palmer take the easy way out.
  
  Through all this craziness, Palmer has remained a steady professional and I think the offense is about to rebound. When other teams are willing to give up on a headache or reward a previous pain in the rear by taking them into the fold, Cincinnati took the tougher road and I have a feeling it's going to pay off this year behind a healthy QB with ability just a notch below Peyton Manning but arguably better weapons.
  
  
• Trent Edwards: I've been high on Edwards since I watched him at Stanford. I often talk about the game where he took an ungodly beating against USC and he continued to stand tough in the pocket and deliver strikes that his receivers dropped. His Stanford team was so bad, he once had to drop back while two of his offensive linemen got into a fight-after the snap!
  
  Some people are saying Buffalo's line could be the NFL's version of that woeful, Stanford Cardinal line. However, I think the Bills are taking an excellent route to diminish the severity of their weakness with the two-minute offense. As the color crew stated on ESPN's broadcast of the Hall of Fame Game, the two-minute offense will tire out the defensive line, slow the pass rush, and allow Edwards to make quick reads to move the offense against their opponent's base defense.
  
  The Bills' strategy might not translate into the number of victories they desire, but Edwards is a good enough quarterback with the weapons to throw for 25 scores and close to 4000 yards in this scheme. What I just said is a deceptive statement because the key point is the scheme, not the quarterback. Edwards is a good young player and will continue to grow into a quarterback people will eventually regard much more than they do now.

Running Back

• Donald Brown: A few things happened in the Colts' first preseason game that confirmed some feelings I had about Bill Polian's logic behind the selection of Donald Brown. The Vikings sacked Peyton Manning three times, an occurrence Manning is beginning to encounter more frequently against the elite defenses. The reasons are the loss of Marvin Harrison as an elite deep threat, the diminishing returns of the offensive line, and the lack of a big-play threat at running back.
  These deficiencies have limited the Colts potential. They aren't even a clear-cut favorite in their division much less a real threat to win the AFC. Polian knew there wasn't a receiver the likes of Marvin Harrison in this draft. We also have learned Joseph Addai on his best day has never been explosive as Donald Brown. Polian picked the rookie to provide an explosive element that will force teams to honor the run.
  
  Brown flashed his skills in game one of the preseason, and what happened against the Vikings was another small window into what the Colts need to do to be successful. First, they need to find a way to stop the pressure up the middle and develop a big-play threat beyond Reggie Wayne, who really isn't a big-play guy without additional help. Anthony Gonzalez might just become good enough to replace Marvin Harrison, however I think that severely shortchanges Harrison's legacy as one of the best deep threats in the game. I believe the Colts will become more of a running team that most might anticipate. Brown is going in drafts around the same time as his teammate Addai. I'd rather take youth and a better track record of durability in this instance.
  
  
• Ahmad Bradshaw: He has been the most dynamic runner on this Giants team since Tiki Barber left - by a mile. Go ahead, enjoy watching those who think the 270-pound, Brandon Jacobs is going to last the entire season. It won't happen. Jacobs takes as much punishment as he gives. Plus he simply lacks the stamina to be the kind of back you would expect to carry the load from wire to wire.
  
  I may be proven wrong, but it's the nature of the position and his dimensions. Argue with me all you want, but you don't see Shaq at point guard or Ivan Rodriguez stealing bases. Brandon Jacobs is really a change of pace back disguised as a lead runner because he's on the opposite end of the spectrum of backs that are most frequently questioned they can carry a heavy load. I believe there is a middle range for height-weight-body type for a consistently successful runner.
  
  Of the runners on the Giants roster, I believe Bradshaw has the best combo of vision, quickness, speed, and hands. He also has enough power to break tackles once he's through the trash of the first level. You're going to hear a lot about Danny Ware from people. However, let people gush about him. He's a great athlete, but he's not an instinctive runner between the tackles on the level of Bradshaw. The third-year back has the skill to set up runs in the similar to DeAngelo Williams, simply one of the best big-play runners in the NFL last year.
  
  Bradshaw may not be "built" to be an every down back for a season, but neither were a whole slew of backs who succeeded to produce line ones behind excellent run blocking offensive lines like Warrick Dunn or Priest Holmes. The fantasy community might be reawakening to Bradshaw after his performance in the second preseason game. However, I think they'll still be slow to rouse. I think Bradshaw is a huge bargain who will be guaranteed to see as much, if not more time than backs we continue to hear about going after him.
  
  
• Bernard Scott: Another theme running throughout this piece - as demonstrated by Ray Rice and Ahmad Bradshaw - is the idea that it's not how fast a runner is, but how quickly he makes good decisions and accelerate to his top speed. Bernard Scott isn't even the official backup to Cedric Benson on the Bengals depth chart, but he is so instinctive and polished with the ball in his hands that I think Scott will steadily earn his team's trust at the rate Benson loses it. Considering you can get him near the end of your draft, he could be a K-Mart's version of Felix Jones by midseason.
  
  
• Chris Brown: I liked how Slaton fought for extra yards, but a lot of his big plays were frequently the result of defenses losing track of him in the pile. In other words, I think he had more lucky breaks through the line than any back I saw last year. I inherited Slaton in a dynasty league this spring, but after watching the film and I decided to deal him. Maybe he'll prove it's not a luck factor at all, but I just didn't see the skills that lead me to believe he's an all-around stud on the level people project him to be.
  
  Considering all the talk about the Texans looking for a between the tackles runner to complement Slaton tells me it was never the plan for the West Virginia rookie to be that all-around guy in the first place. What this means to me is that he's a probably a solid, No. 2 RB at best, especially if Chris Brown works out. When healthy he is a borderline stud, but he's been Steven Jackson times five in terms of his injury history. The good thing is Brown's injuries weren't debilitating. He just didn't turn out to be the guy a team could build around. However, I have a feeling this year that drafting Brown in the late rounds will get you a great flex, and possibly, No. 2 RB with a potentially a LenDale White-like 2008, TD total.

Wide Receiver

• Chris Henry: Carson Palmer's glowing reports about Henry turning around his life is the first thing that should capture your attention. Chad Ochocinco's turnaround is the next. Then there's the addition of Laveranues Coles, a solid veteran with more downfield skills than Houshmandzadeh, but a greater history of nagging injuries. To his credit he's been able to start every game for most of the seasons in his career, but the turning point from being a field-stretcher to a possession guy came after he injured his toe during his second season with Washington. Before that point Coles was a 14-ypc receiver. After, he's been consistently had a ypc in the 10-12 range. With no TE emerging from camp and an average back in Cedric Benson, Henry will see enough time split wide that he could play his way into a prominent role.
  
  
• Limas Sweed: The Steelers WR made some big plays in big games early in his college career. However, it wasn't until Sweed battled back after dropping a big pass in the AFC Championship Game, and continued to play hard while maintaining his confidence that really gave me a good feeling about him. He carried over his effort to the 2009 preseason and he is beginning to flash the playmaking skills the Steelers hoped to get when they drafted him. Hines Ward would be the ideal slot receiver late in his career and I think the more Pittsburgh can feel confident about using Sweed outside, the better this passing offense is going to be. For a late-round pick, his upside is too great to ignore in an offense that surprisingly struggles with its run game in the red zone, and needs a big option through the air.

Tight End

• Vernon Davis: I considered Jeremy Shockey and Todd Heap, because Shockey has the best QB and Heap has the most all around talent and experience, but if I'm going to take one of the fantasy teases I profiled last week, I want it to be the guy who can stay healthy. I think Davis has the best chance. He is still also a player we can consider on the ascent compared to the other two. This year is likely his last chance to have a future with the 49ers as a starter. I have a feeling Davis does the best he can to make good, despite occasional behavior that will earn some scolding from head coach Mike Singletary and coach on the field Frank Gore.

Defensive Tackle

• Jamal Williams: It was a down year for the Chargers defense due to Stephen Cooper missing time and Shawne Merriman tearing his ACL. However, Jamal Williams continues to hold down the fort with his play. He was the No. 13 DT last year despite a severe lack of help. The Chargers defense fortified its troops in the off season and I think this will help Williams' assist total rise to standards where you can get him as a starting quality DT at a bargain basement price in IDP leagues.
  
  
• Tony Brown: The Titans appear confident that losing Albert Haynesworth won't be as devastating as people predict. Part of that optimism has to do with the rotation at defensive tackle that includes Tony Brown, a four-year veteran with consecutive, top 20 seasons at his position. Haynesworth deserves a lot of credit, but Brown has enough quickness and pass rushing skill from the tackle position to surprise. Defensive line coach Jim Washburn is one of the best in the business, and if he says Brown's success had nothing to do with Haynesworth, I'm going to believe him.
  
  According to the Tennessean, Washburn said Brown had to play a third more plays than Haynesworth and his skills shouldn't be questioned: "Tony Brown is a good football player, period. Everybody else says (his success) it's because of something else - they don't know." I'm beginning to think Brown will not experience as much of a drop-off in fantasy production as people anticipate. Especially with a healthy Kyle Vanden Bosch on the outside and...

Defensive End

• William Hayes: The second-year pro from Winston Salem State is an unknown, except to scouts. If I remember correctly, Mel Kiper knew very little about Hayes in 2008's draft broadcast, because no one expected Hayes to even be a draft worthy prospect. Of course, few people monitor players from Winston Salem State, so with the Titans reputation for acquiring good linemen on both sides of the ball they got a bit of a pass with this pick.
  
  Hayes didn't do anything as a rookie, but he's been impressive enough in camp that there are quiet predictions from former Ravens and Browns scout Daniel Jeremiah who has connections that say Hayes could have a breakout year in 2009. Hayes didn't have any stats in the Titans second preseason game, but according to the Tennessean, he consistently got into the backfield and pressured the quarterback.
  
  "We feel like we're going to get a lot of big plays out of him," says Jeff Fisher. Hayes might not be a player you pick in your draft, but if you don't I believe he'll be snatched off your league's waiver wire far quickly.
  
  
• Cliff Avril: I have a similar feeling about Avril as I did about Justin Tuck. Both players switched from LB to DE and they have been praised for their athleticism and potential to develop into big-time pass rushers. Tuck has made good on the deal. I think Avril is poised to follow suit. Coach Jim Schwartz and his defensive coordinators have Avril lining up with a wide split for a DE, much like you see from Schwartz's former team in Tennessee. Avril is going off the board as a late DE2, but I think he has a chance to be a DE 1.
  
  
• Brian Orakpo: If you're in a league with a management site that considers the rookie a defensive end, take Orakpo and don't look back. He's quick, strong, and benefits from the presence of Albert Haynesworth and Andre Carter. He's a potentially decent fantasy LB, which is the position he's playing for the Redskins. However, enjoy this loophole if your league gives you this gift.

Linebacker

• Adalius Thomas: The Patriots had a down year in 2007, but if the offense returns to its 2007 form, the defense will have the luxury of playing with a lot of leads and the pass rushers in this unit will be unleashed once again. With Mike Vrabel sent to the Chiefs, Adalius Thomas gets the opportunity to be the big-play defender for the Pats. Last year he broke his forearm after posting 5.5 sacks in nine games. Now fully healthy and likely to see more passing rushing opportunities, he should have a lot of chances to accumulate top 20 stats.

Cornerback

• Leigh Bodden: It's just logical more than intuitive. Bodden plays on an offense with a chance to return to such devastating explosiveness that their opponents will be forced to abandon the run by the end of the first quarter. Look for Bodden to be the guy most quarterbacks will target if Shawn Springs stays healthy. I'm expecting a return to his Cleveland fantasy stats.

Safety

• Brian Dawkins: Dawkins is at that stage of his career where he's viewed as near the end of his productive years, but he will have enough opportunities to be a fantasy force. Denver's front seven is such a work in progress that Dawkins will be like Sammy Knight at the end of his career. For at least two seasons, Knight was considered past his prime, but continued to post top tier fantasy numbers because he was on teams that couldn't stop anyone up front. Dawkins assumes this "Sammy Knight" role in 2008. Enjoy the fact you'll get a top five DB after most of the trendy guys are off the board.

Updated Crank Projections

Stock Up

• Brett Favre: Does joining a new team, missing half of training camp, and suffering from a partially torn rotator cuff sound too foreboding to acquire Favre for your fantasy lineup? I can deal with him if he's a part of a QBBC or a strong No. 2 QB. He joins a team with an even better running game and more explosive receivers. Bobby Wade should be a little more valuable, because I think he's really their most proven set of hands over the middle. Percy Harvin will definitely get a ton of chances and his stock goes up as a result of Favre's return and Bernard Berrian's hammy.
• Brian Westbrook: Back at practice with a few weeks before opening day to spare. Enough said...
• Julius Jones: It's not a ringing endorsement, but until Seattle figures out their ground game Jones is the best bet. Justin Forsett makes a nice late pick if you wind up with Jones and I still think Devin Moore has a chance to stick to the roster and develop for dynasty owners.
• Peyton Hillis: The dust is settling a bit with Denver's RB depth chart. Moreno is the best talent, but Hillis has held his own during Moreno's absence to earn enough time to at least be in a committee with the rookie. It's possible he'll even begin the season as a starter. If you're going to try to make sense of the Broncos backfield, Moreno, Hillis, Buckhalter, and Jordan are the backs I want in that order - and really just the first two.
• Chad Ochocinco: I think his first preseason performance solidified what we've been hearing about his training camp. He is ready to go and with Steve Smith banged up, Ochocinco moves up.
• Lee Evans: Trent Edwards looks in sync with Terrell Owens and as we've all anticipated this should bode well for Evans to be a strong No. 2 WR.
• Isaac Bruce: Now that Michael Crabtree has put his career on the ledge of a high building, he's going to need a rescue crew to get him down and he'll probably need counseling for a while. Isaac Bruce was a great NFL receiver. Now he's just pretty darn good. That is still good enough to draft him.
• Jeremy Shockey: He has a decent track record of playing through injuries, but he also has a history of not playing effectively through them. The fact he's healthy and looked like his old self so far in the preseason raises his stock.

Stock Down

• Steve Slaton: He continues to fall as long as Chris Brown stays healthy and continues to prove that Houston found their chain mover to complement Slaton's big-play ability. Brown is a breakaway threat in his own right, and I wouldn't be surprised if he outplays Slaton if all things are even.
• Rashard Mendenhall: It appears my projection of Mendenhall as a sleeper was not a good one. He ran with even less decisiveness than he did as a rookie. The only hope is the fact he was slow to develop at Illinois and maybe he'll catch on before it's too late for him in Pittsburgh. He better realize he'll have less time in the NFL.
• Matt Cassel: It already appears that he's losing ground to the human crash test dummy Brodie Croyle and this news comes after the Chiefs brought in Ashlie Lelie to bolster the receiving corps. Isn't Scott Pioli supposed to be a GM genius? It makes you wonder which came first, the Belichick or the Pioli?