The Weekly Gut Check - Teasers (2009 Anti-Sleepers) and Updated Crank Projections

  Posted 8/13 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Anti-hero

--noun, plural -roes.
A protagonist who lacks the attributes that make a heroic figure, as nobility of mind and spirit, a life or attitude marked by action or purpose, and the like.

Anti-sleeper (the tease)

--noun, plural -s.
An NFL player who clearly has talent, and fantasy owners believe has a decent chance to produce well above his current draft value, but lacks the attributes and/or situation to really do it. The most common attribute that works against the anti-sleeper is his inability to stay healthy. The situation that confronts him is the style of offense or other players on the depth chart with promising roles.

This is a dangerous column, especially if you're like me and find yourself drawn to players with talent, but neither the situation nor the medical history to maximize it since they've entered the NFL. These players, whether you call them teases or anti-sleepers, flash their skills for a period of time but can't sustain the opportunity to produce for more than a season (if that).

For years I have published an All-Preseason Gut Check Team filled with sleepers. I plan to do it once again next week, but it occurred to me that trying to target sleeper candidates to avoid with good reason might be just as valuable.

The problem is I just can't avoid all of them and I bet some of you have the same problem. The reason is some of these players really will make good on their promise. Instead of telling you to avoid them altogether, I'm warning you not to draft too many of them.

I created a preliminary list of candidates and then asked those of you on Twitter and Facebook to supply me your late-round guys that you wanted to hear my take on their potential for 2009. Some of them I consider true sleepers and they are the ones I'll discuss next week. The rest are players that intrigue fantasy owners, but their promise won't translate to the field this year. Many of these players I think are talented, but at least one factor will prevent them from making good on the promise that comes with training camp. Some of them are great to consider for your waiver wire, but don't mistake them as players to select in the late rounds unless it's a very deep draft.

Anti-Sleeper Quarterbacks

• Matt Cassel: Cassel's performance had me reminiscing of Scott Mitchell in the 90s when Dan Marino ruptured his Achilles' against the Cleveland Browns and the unknown backup played well enough that he earned an opportunity to start elsewhere when Marino returned the following year. Mitchell threw for over 4000 yards and 32 scores in his second season as Detroit's starter, but never came close to those numbers again. You also should remember that Cassel played in a run and shoot offense that opposing teams hadn't figured out and he had an excellent, big-play threat in Herman Moore and quality possession receiver in Brett Perriman. Both had over 1400 yards receiving and a young, Johnnie Morton had 590 yards and eight scores from the slot.
  
  I think there are numerous parallels between Mitchell's second year in Detroit and Cassel's first opportunity to start since high school. Like the Lions' unique offense, the Patriots have a system that opposing teams could not figure out in 2008 and still struggled to stop in 2009 without it's leader. Mitchell had Pro-Bowl caliber talent at receiver (and a pretty good running back in Barry Sanders) and these players proved they were skilled without the run and shoot system that Detroit eventually abandoned. Cassel was throwing to arguably the finest deep threat to ever suit up, and an excellent possession receiver with YAC skills in an offense under a head coach that is one of the finest football minds in recent NFL history.
  
  Although Cassel had the same great offense in 2008 that Tom Brady had in 2007, the quarterback was nowhere close the Tom Brady's numbers. No matter how great the talent around Cassel was, I didn't expect him to pass for more than 4500 yards or 35 scores. However, he left enough opportunities on the field to get close to 4000 yards and 30 scores rather the 3600 yards and 21 TDs he actually attained. Of course, we also saw New England opt to run the ball more to protect Cassel in ways they didn't need to do with a healthy Brady.
  
  Cassel did a great job for a first-year quarterback and a phenomenal job as player who never started a game in college. However, Kansas City lacks the skill talent Back East. Dwayne Bowe is good enough to command double teams, but not consistently good enough beat them like Randy Moss. Bobby Engram is arguably as savvy a receiver as Wes Welker but without a Randy Moss-like player or a second, quality outside threat, he won't thrive like Welker has in New England. Neither Mark Bradley nor Devard Darling have inspired enough confidence for Kansas City to stand pat with their depth chart for even a week into training camp. However, I don't see how Amani Toomer is going to do enough to free Dwayne Bowe. In other words, Amani Toomer plus Bobby Engram does not equal Tony Gonzalez; it may come close strategically, but not statistically.
  
  I think Cassel throws for 3000 yards and 20 scores, at best. That's slightly better than Kyle Orton's campaign last year in Chicago. The numbers may seem too low for a QB on a team with a defense that should be in line to give up enough points early in games that the offense will need to abandon the run. However, it also means the offense will be forced into situations where Cassel will be on the spot more than he was in New England. I also think a healthy and potentially rededicated Larry Johnson is a much better runner than anything the Patriots could field last season.
  
  Training camp/preseason talk aside, when the regular season starts, teams want to win and they do it with the best players available. Larry Johnson is still arguably their best offensive talent. Jamaal Charles has great potential, too. So as much as the Chiefs are under new management, the new workers on the front lines aren't talented enough to completely change the operation in Kansas City. Cassel will be forced to throw more, but he won't be in the favorable situations that he was in New England. Consider this year as his true test to be an NFL starter, because I'm still wondering whether the Patriots offense was so good that a good high school starting QB could succeed in it.
• Ben Roethlisberger: We all learned in 2008 that Big Ben has a lot of early-career John Elway in him. And Elway had a little Terry Bradshaw in him. When called upon, these passers can pull victory out of the jaws of defeat. Like Elway and Bradshaw, Roethlisberger can produce fantasy-worthy stats if Pittsburgh didn't want to emphasize the run. With the exception of 2007, Big Ben has been remarkably consistent, throwing for 17-18 scores every year. Even without a healthy Willie Parker or Rashard Mendenhall in 2008, his stats didn't change much from 2006 with Mewelde Moore serving as the lead back for stretches.
  
  This year, Pittsburgh's stable of backs are healthy and despite what seems like a summer ritual of fantasy owners smugly drafting Roethlisberger like they pulled an extra ace out of their back pocket, the Steelers aren't revamping their offensive philosophy. He's a solid, No. 2 QB, but there are five passers I'd rather take a risk on because their upside is greater (Schaub, Garrard, Edwards, Palmer, and Cutler). As a football fan, I wish he were quarterbacking the Titans. As a fantasy owner, he's hopefully warming my bench.

Anti-Sleeper Running Backs

• Pierre Thomas: Let me get this straight, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are consensus top 24 non-PPR backs in an offense that is weighted towards throwing the football? Last season I understand that Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush finished in the top 24 in 2006, however this was Drew Brees', Marques Colston's, and Sean Payton's seasons in the Big Easy.
  
  How many teams in the past 40 years had a 4000-yard QB and two, top 25 RBs? The 1996 Ravens had Bam Morris (21) and Earnest Byner (27) paired with Vinny Testaverde, but that doesn't make the cut. Neither does the pairing of Marion Butts (25) and Leroy Thompson (26) with Drew Bledsoe in 1994. The Colts had Joseph Addai (11) and Dominic Rhodes (33) in 2006; the Chiefs had Larry Johnson (2) and Priest Holmes (32) in 2005 and once again Holmes (11) and Johnson (26) in 2004; and once again the Colts had a tandem, this time Rhodes (11) and Edgerrin James (32). What do all four situations have in common? The lead back suffered a season-ending injury.
  
  Other than Rod Bernstine (19) and Robert Delpino (24) paired with John Elway in 1993; Mark Higgs (15) and Bobby Humphrey (24) paired with Dan Marino in 1992; and Ottis Anderson (6) and Stump Mitchell (17) paired with Neil Lomax in 1984, Bush and McAllister's dynamic duo paired with Drew Brees is only the fourth time it ever happen. Plus, Delpino, Humphrey, and Mitchell's stats were modest by the last decade's standards. You could argue it was a different era of football.
  
  Thomas and Bush finished 21st and 35th respectively, but the bulk of Thomas' carries came after Bush was done for the year and Bush was on his way to a top-12 season if not for the knee problems, which matches the pattern with the Colts and Chiefs during this decade. From my standpoint you either view Thomas as the clear, starter worthy RB or it's Bush, but not both. I know there's a chance Bush could be used more extensively as a receiver and that would be how the Saints would wind up with two RBs in the top 24. However, I believe Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and the rest of the receiving corps would have to be missing in action. Considering Brees threw for 5000 yards without a 1000-yard receiver, I'm not of the belief we'll see it happen. Bush is the more talented player, and I have to presume the Saints still see it this way.
  
  Thomas isn't a player to avoid, but drafting him among the top 25 RBs is only advisable if you truly believe Reggie Bush won't last the first half of the fantasy season. Based on previous seasons, you're probably right but it's an expensive handcuff, or a risky bet that Thomas-Bush will repeat what McAllister-Bush did a few years ago. Even if you believe Bush will succumb to injury, I think he'll play well in enough games that it won't be soon enough to derive real value with Thomas as your No. 2 RB unless your league just completely muffs the punt and doesn't make you pay for taking him that high.
• Reggie Bush: Of course, if you're not as whipped over eye-popping talent as I then Reggie Bush is probably the player you want to avoid for the exact reasons I mentioned about two top fantasy backs on the same team with a 4000-yard passer under center. Bush's knee has been a problem two years in a row, with last season's excellent start as the ultimate tease. Can you really rely on a running back with consecutive seasons ended by injury? Bush could wind up in a long line of players like Chris Brown, Robert Edwards, KiJana Carter, and for those of you growing up in the 70s, Greg Pruitt: great college talents who had injuries reduce them to role players, at best.
  
  The problem for me is that I've been enamored with Bush's skills since I studied him at USC, and he's flashed just enough development in year three that he's kept me on the hook for this season. However, three or four decent performances in a 10-game season are enough of a reason for any sensible person to opt for Thomas instead. Considering Bush somewhere in round four is a pure, gut check moment in your draft. He's pure temptation when considering reports that he looks scintillating when practicing. However, his health status is foreboding, considering names like KiJana Carter or Greg Pruitt who had special skills robbed by multiple injuries. I have drafted Bush once in 10 opportunities this year and I'd say that's about a third of the odds I'd lay on him making it through the season with his legs unscathed.
• Cedric Benson: In theory Cedric Benson is great value because he's a starting running back languishing on draft boards around the country. However, if you've read my Maximizing Sleeper RBs strategy column you will see I didn't exactly give a glowing endorsement of Benson. My stance hasn't changed much. I think he'll give fantasy owners some decent games in at least two of the first four games. If you think you have the skills to wheel and deal, Benson is the perfect back to ride against Denver in the first half of September and then trade before he faces Pittsburgh a couple of weeks later.
  
  Benson clearly hasn't matured. He was a bust in Chicago and instead of taking the high road this summer he chose to portray the Bears as the ones that made the mistake to let him go. The reason they let him go was because he didn't play up to his physical talent and refused to take responsibility for it. The same way he refused to take responsibility for the scrutiny he faced prior to the draft for his immature behavior at Texas. Certain types of immaturity won't hurt a player's performance. Chad Ochocinco is clearly immature, but he is accountable for what he does on the field. Benson still has the mindset that he's a victim in life.
  
  It's too bad because if he really worked at his craft, the Bengals wouldn't need Brian Leonard to be the 3rd down back, and Bernard Scott wouldn't have a semi-realistic opportunity to vulture carries from Benson. Harsh, yes, but Benson was crying when he was drafted (not from joy, but from his incoherent account to Susie Kolber about the predraft scrutiny) and in a sense, he's still crying today. He has proven that he lacks the approach to make good on his talents. He's not just an anti-sleeper, he's an anti-Rudi Johnson: great physical talent, no drive.
• Jonathan Stewart: I thought Jonathan Stewart was clearly the best overall back in the 2008 draft class. He's a physical freak of nature. At Oregon he displayed Emmitt Smith-like agility in a bruiser's body. The only two players I've seen in college who were physically more impressive for their size in the last decade were Adrian Peterson and Ricky Williams. Peterson has the height for the weight he carries. I always thought Williams was a little too big for his weight and I think he had the right idea to lose weight, but his concern came around the time he was also dealing with a drug problem. I believe a mentally healthy Williams at 220 lbs would have been better than he was at 235 lbs.
  
  While muscle can get stronger and more explosive, cartilage and ligaments cannot. Well, they can explode, and that's when things really get unpleasant for an RB's career prospects. It's telling to me that younger backs want to add muscle, but as they get older (if they make it that far) are trying to lose weight to get quicker. Jonathan Stewart has a lot of weight for his size, and his feet and ankles seem to be the part of his body crying to uncle. Maybe this isn't something I can prove but after watching a number of larger backs with great speed and agility combos, I'm beginning to wonder.
  
  Whatever the reason, at this point Sigmund Bloom is dead-on: "Stewart is an injury handcuff masquerading as an RB2." Stewart can't stay healthy and he's missing practice time. It's not a huge loss for Carolina right now, because DeAngelo Williams is the clear-cut starter, and reportedly in midseason form. Williams is as versatile a back as a team could ask for, and unlike the Steelers' big-play artist Willie Parker, Williams can get it done in short yardage.
  
  If these nagging injuries continue to happen to Stewart the big back is likely to be the one sent packing when the Panthers eventually have to make a choice between him and Williams. Ultimately, this could still be good for Stewart's dynasty prospects if he can make good elsewhere - provided he's healthy. I'm beginning to wonder if he turns into the next great tease in fantasy football.

Anti-Sleeper Wide Receivers

• Braylon Edwards: One great season followed by a pitiful one has fantasy owners hoping for a rebound. Physically, Edwards meets the part, but his team doesn't. Derek Anderson's long descent from unknown darling to overrated Pro Bowl QB happened because he lacked the skills to make good decisions when a defense forced him to play from his weaknesses rather than his strengths. Brady Quinn's weakness is on intermediate and deep throws - the best facet of Edwards' game.
  
  Edwards is still dealing with an ankle injury and he will have unproven receivers on the opposite side of him in the starting line up, unless Mike Furrey works his way into the lineup. Although he has No. 1 WR skills when focused, he lacks the elite ability to perform at that level without a second WR or quality QB like we've seen from Andre or Calvin Johnson. If you're looking for a serious rebound player, head to southern Ohio and draft Chad Ochocinco. Edwards should have some good weeks, but I believe he'll underwhelm fantasy owners who take him at his current ADP.
• Chris Chambers: Let's play the numbers game with Chambers. The first number is one. That's how many 1000-yard seasons Chambers has in his career. Two is the number of seasons Chambers has scored double-digit touchdowns in his career. Three? The option Chambers is (at best) in the Chargers passing game behind Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and possibly LaDainian Tomlinson. Four? The average tally of touchdowns Chambers has scored in the past three seasons.
  
  Chambers as a No. 2 WR would be great on teams like Arizona, New England, or New Orleans would be a place where fantasy owners should be drooling over him on draft day, because he is still a great athletic talent. However, he never became the receiver we thought we'd see after a breathtaking second half of his rookie season. This is Chambers' tease factor. For years, we've waited for him to fulfill his potential and for one reason or another he never has. The excuses were minor injuries, less than stellar QB play, and putrid offenses.
  
  However, Chambers has run out of excuses. Chargers' coach Norv Turner loves balance and unless the receiving corps is decimated with injuries Chambers' yardage won't get closer to 500-600 yards. At least a third of your league is likely to get receivers off the waiver wire with these or better production.
• Mike Walker: It pains me to say put Mike Walker here. I hope he qualifies as one of the players that escape this list for good in 2009. However, if there is a player in this league who has been the poster child for a bad run of luck, Walker's mug is plastered on the equivalent of every NFL milk carton that says, "Have you seen me?"
  
  If you haven't read it a million times in my columns by now, I've said repeatedly that Mike Walker was a better talent at the University of Central Florida than Brandon Marshall. This is the tease with Walker, because when he was a rookie with the Jaguars, observers said he looked like the best receiver on the field in practice, but his post-ACL, surgically repaired knee was still balky. The following year, he dealt with knee injuries, staph infection, and then the death of his father and friend within a week of each other.
  
  This year, Torry Holt will be the No. 1 WR in name only. According to scouts his explosiveness is gone and even the Jaguars concede that he's not able to practice like most veterans. This means Mike Walker is the guy the Jaguars need to play to his potential. Theoretically he's a great value, because if he stays healthy he has all of the tools and the situation to be a breakout receiver. In reality, he already hurt his leg in a scrimmage and had to be helped off the field. Although X-rays were negative and the injury isn't serious, it doesn't raise my confidence that Walker can stay on the field.
  
  The problem is Walker is just as likely to be that killer sleeper as a sleeper killer. I'm just as likely to be glad someone else picked him, as I will be sad I missed out. I'm trying to convince myself that having him in dynasty leagues is enough. Can you tell it isn't working?

Anti-Sleeper Tight Ends

Note: One of these guys is going to make good on his promise this year. However, I might as well be the unwitting victim of the shell game on a street corner trying to pick the right one.

• Vernon Davis: The tease with Davis' game is his incredible physical gifts. Mike Heimerdinger may think he has a player reminiscent of Shannon Sharpe in rookie Jared Cook, but Davis is an even better athlete. It's just too bad that Davis left the compartment in his brain to play football where Thurman Thomas left his helmet in the Super Bowl against the Redskins in Atlanta.
  
  It has taken Davis three years to find it and I'm not sure he's found a place to hold onto it firmly. When Frank Gore has to call out Davis in the media because it was yet another time his teammate's head for football wasn't in the right place, it's not a good sign. When 49ers beat writer Matt Maiocco has nothing to say about Davis except let's wait to see what he does in a real game, you know why Davis has broken quite a few fantasy owners for two seasons since a promising rookie year despite a leg injury. At least his ADP is at a place you don't have to reach for him.
• Todd Heap: Heap is the Mike Walker of TEs, except he actually proved he was capable of elite production for a few seasons between aches and pains. It has been well documented that Heap was kept on the line to protect rookie QB Joe Flacco last year. The hope is Heap will be used far more extensively as a receiver this year.
  
  Personally, I like the logic. However, I wish we could transfer Heap's mind for football into Vernon Davis' body. We would have a lock for the Hall of Fame. At least this year Davis is even getting drafted before Heap. If you take your chances with the skillful, but fragile TE, another factor in your favor is that Heap said he hasn't felt this good in years. Unfortunately, Heap has missed time in mini camp and training camp due to a lower back issue. It kind of lets some of the air out of the previous statement about feeling good, doesn't it?
• Jeremy Shockey: Shockey gets to play with a truly great QB and he is healthy. And despite a "disappointing" first season with the Saints, he did catch 50 passes for nearly 500 yards. If he could have scored 5-6 times with that total in 2008, he would have been a solid fantasy factor. However, Shockey may have to compete for touches with Lance Moore, Marques Colston, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Devery Henderson, and possibly Robert Meachem. I'd put him behind Bush in this order when it comes to fantasy value as a receiver. It doesn't sound good to be option No. 4 but with a QB capable of a 5000-yard season, 700-800 yards and 6-8 scores isn't out of the question. For a TE available after round 10 in many drafts, he's an enticing late round pick.
  
  Shockey also has the rep of a player who doesn't execute his assignments consistently and Drew Brees is a quarterback who sees the field well enough that he doesn't need to cater to the whims of an underachieving talent for the offense to be successful. Although Shockey lacks the downside of Davis and Heap, he could be just mediocre enough that you start him too often before going with another option.

Short Takes on Late Round RBs via Twitter Request

• Kevin Faulk: Faulk is a very good utility back that does everything well, but nothing great. He had over 900 combined yards last year, which was his best fantasy output in his 10-year career. The last time Faulk even came close to this total was 2003 and I find it difficult to believe Faulk's 2008 was more than a blip on his career statistical output because of injuries to Tom Brady and Laurence Maroney. While we don't know officially how the RB rotation will shake out, Fred Taylor, Maroney, and arguably Sammy Morris are better between the tackles runners than Faulk, and Taylor is on par with Faulk as a receiver. As of early August, Faulk is listed as RB41, which is ridiculously higher than LenDale White who scored 15 touchdowns last year and is actually in shape this summer.
  
  Maybe the Titans defense will be weaker with the loss of Albert Haynesworth, but the offense has only added weapons and they won't abandon their game plan to methodically drive down the field behind one of the league's best offensive lines (I know it's an obscure rule, but after the opponent scores they do have to kick the ball back to the other team…). To rank Faulk, a back with three other players on the depth chart who could easily eat into his time on one of the best passing offenses in the league, ahead of White, who only splits time with Chris Johnson on a run-heavy offense, makes little sense.
  
  You might get some nice bye weeks out of Faulk, however I prefer to select backs with upside in the mid-rounds of my drafts. LenDale white could conceivably have 1500 combined yards and 15 scores if Chris Johnson were to get injured early in the year. You'll need Randy Moss to run over the RB depth chart with a snow mover for Faulk to get a chance at 900 combined yards again. You do the math.
• Brandon Jackson: The Packer's third-year vet is a nifty guy with decent balance to make some plays between the tackles. He's the Midwest version of Kevin Faulk in training, but he lacks the chain-moving skills of either DeShawn Wynn or Kregg Lumpkin, who are also arguably better receivers. Like New England, Green Bay's offensive strength is its QB and WRs. Although Jackson is the No. 2 RB in name, I think Wynn or Lumpkin have a much better shot to be that player in role when it really matters: if Grant gets hurt. Jackson's 5.5 yards per carry was based on 45 rushes spread over 13 games with only two games where he earned double-digit attempts. If he had 100 attempts and 4-6 games with at least 15-20 carries, I'd be more optimistic about his upside.
• Mewelde Moore: I agree with Footballguys staffer David Yudkin, who makes a great point that Moore appeared to earn consideration to start for the Vikings but never got it. Moore had some excellent games in Minnesota due to his quick feet, receiving skills, and vision. At 5-11, 208 lbs., Moore is just on the cusp of having lead back dimensions and according to Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, his 2008 performance in relief of Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall was a big reason for Pittsburgh's
  Super Bowl run. However, there's the rub: Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall are healthy. Both are more explosive game-breakers than Moore and Mendenhall runs with more power. It's possible both backs get hurt again and Moore is once again the default starter, but expecting him to earn more than what Kevin Faulk usually gets as the utility back in New England - especially with Parker and Mendenhall healthy - doesn't make him more than pick at the very end of your draft, at best.
• Justin Forsett: There's an undercurrent of excitement about former Cal Bear Justin Forsett, a young back who has made the round trip from Seattle to Indianapolis and back in just his first season in the NFL. He's a tough, courageous runner at 5-8, 195 lbs., but he is not the next coming of Maurice Jones-Drew or Darren Sproles. Like these two game-breakers, Forsett has good balance and agility. However, he lacks game-breaking speed and unlike Jones-Drew and Sproles, first and second level defenders regularly took him down easily. Right now he's a pleasant training camp story for beat writers to profile because Forsett's approach to the game naturally makes him a coach's favorite. I just don't think tearing up the Pac 10 is necessarily a great precursor to shredding even the weaker NFL defenses of the NFC West. Forsett may get some time in Seattle's RBBC, but if he's getting the lions' share of the carries, something really bad is happening in the Emerald City, and those carries won't be enough to spend a draft pick on him.
• Arian Foster: Foster is another back I liked when I evaluated him in college. Unlike Forsett, the former Tennessee Volunteer has the frame, footwork, and gait of Eddie George, and catches the ball well enough that it's far easier to envision him getting a real chance in Houston. Yet, Foster went undrafted and this had to do with his penchant to fumble the ball, and inconsistent production as a senior. When interviewed or profile in the media Foster was portrayed as a smart young man, but in those portrayals it seemed he lacked the fire and/or maturity to make football his sole focus. It's not as if Foster is even the most talented runner on the Texans depth chart. I would make a strong argument that Chris Brown and Ryan Moats are better pure runners. However, this opportunity is likely both players' last stands to make significant contributions on rosters even as role players. Foster deserves at least some future consideration for these reasons alone in deep dynasty leagues, but in re-drafts Chris Brown is the sleeper in Houston's backfield.

Updated Crank Projections

Stock Up

Nate Washington was used early and often in the Titans offense in Sunday's Hall of Fame Game and it was the play design that hints at the promise of Washington becoming the primary receiver in this offense. We all know Washington has deep speed, but the Titans use of shorter routes to rely upon his skills after the catch that should get your attention. Washington looks like he could be an upgrade to Justin Gage, which means the Titans offense could actually be more explosive than we think. Kerry Collins could be the next player to get an upgrade at this rate.

Isaac Bruce continues to demonstrate he can perform at a high level. With Michael Crabtree still threatening career suicide with each passing day that he holds out, Bruce is firmly entrenched as the starter opposite Josh Morgan. He's criminally undervalued.

Stock Down

Steve Slaton hasn't done anything wrong, but Chris Brown is beginning to prove that he might be the change of pace option Gary Kubiak envisioned last year before Slaton had to take on a bigger share of the carries. Slaton performed beyond my expectations as a rookie and ran tougher between the tackles than I saw him at West Virginia. However, he isn't a natural tackle-breaker as a runner. A lot of his big runs were plays where defenders lost Slaton in the hole and Slaton did enough to keep himself upright in traffic to squirt through a new opening before a defender could wrap him. Chris Brown is an excellent complement and he's healthy enough to make a strong case. If he remains in good shape, I think Slaton might turn out to be a better No. 2 RB.

Jerome Harrison loses ground because rookie James Davis has been as impressive. According to camp reports, Davis is already at least as good a pass protector as Harrison. The fourth-year back from Washington State could still be coach Eric Mangini's Cleveland version of Leon Washington but if Jamal Lewis falters, Davis could wind up being the understudy that gets the first opportunity.

Torry Holt appears to be in the role of aging veteran/on-field coach for Jacksonville's young receivers. I mentioned earlier why he is losing value. In fact, it's quite possible Isaac Bruce should be where Torry Holt is ranked.

Steve Smith's injury and Roddy White's recent holdout decrease their value. Smith will likely need a few weeks to get back into peak form if his injury isn't too serious. I need to see White demonstrate he can make it through camp healthy after missing a couple of weeks.

Brandon Marshall's hip injury and court case are serious concerns. Think about how Marshall tweaked his injury: he got into a scrap with a defender. This means he momentarily lost awareness of his injury and when he acted physically like nothing was wrong, he re-injured it to some degree. Players tell the media all the time that they know they are at full health when they forget about the injury and do something that puts stress on that body part without an issue. This incident tells me he failed the real test before the season even began. I think we're going to be talking about Marshall next year the way some are speculating about Braylon Edwards this year. Not good.