The Weekly Gut Check - 2009 Crank Score Projections

  Posted 8/6 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Projecting Crank Scores: A Quick Review

To create my 2009 Crank Score projections I took three years of Crank results and created an average value per position (QB1-QB24; RB1-RB48; WR1-WR48; and TE1-TE24). Then I studied what factors the most consistent players at each position had in common. Finally, the players are plugged into the matrix and it's time to unveil where I have them rated and discuss its implications for your draft if you decide to employ this strategy.

QB Projections

Among the four skill positions, only tight ends have a lower collective X-Value than quarterbacks. And if it weren't for Tom Brady's dominant, 2007 campaign, the difference between the top Crank-Consistent QB and the No. 2 passer on the list wouldn't be as great. In a standard scoring fantasy league, it appears fantasy quarterbacks can be broken down into four tiers:

1. The Elite: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Daunte Culpepper all had one recently. When a quarterback plays this well compared to his peers, he's often the top performer in fantasy football by a wide enough margin that you will gain a distinct advantage with him in your lineup if you have decent surrounding talent. There are maybe 10-12 players at other positions with better X-values, but none will score as many points. As my colleague Sigmund Bloom deftly puts it, " it's like having an extra player in your lineup every week compared to your competition." The risk is hitting the bull's eye on the right QB. If you miss, you've theoretically lost a chance on drafting two elite players.


2. The Good: On average, there have been three players in this tier. You know you're in good hands with these signal callers, but there are 36-40 players at other positions with arguably better value. If you've played fantasy football for any length of time, you know these quarterbacks tend to go three to four rounds after the guy projected to have a career year. Sometimes, if you'll see a second QB drafted in rounds two or three rather than rounds four to five, but the floodgates don't open until the next tier.


3. The Panic Rounds: These six QBs are considered the last "true" starters and there's often a panic in the mid-rounds to grab at least four of them before they're gone in rounds seven or eight. Think of about it this way: The average difference in X-Value between the No. 1 QB and the No. 4 QB is eight X-points. That is the same X-Value points gap between the No. 5 QB and the No. 13 QB. This is why David Dodds' perfect draft strategy of rotating late round quarterbacks can be an effective approach. While half your league is falling over themselves in the mid-rounds to get a "decent" QB, you can acquire quality players at RB and WR and play the matchups with two QBs who can at least provide quality starter production if you make the right choices.


4. The Decent: Once the panic rounds end, there are usually six to eight QBs who are capable of producing enough points each week that they won't cost a good lineup a victory. They aren't likely to win you games, but they won't hurt you. Players like David Garrard and Matt Hasselbeck are players that come to mind as good examples. And they are likely to have four to five games where they perform better than expected. Rotate two QBs of this caliber accurately week-to-week and the QB slot in your lineup performs as well or better than the guys taken in the panic rounds.

This year, I think there are four quarterbacks I would feel comfortable drafting within the first five rounds:

• Tom Brady (The Elite): A few years ago I did an analysis on Daunte Culpepper and other quarterbacks coming off career years. What I learned is that there is a window of excellence that many of these passers experience during their careers. This window opens for a period of 3-4 years due to that QB's development; a good fit with an offensive philosophy; and excellent skill players in support. These players with a window of elite years included Culpepper, Steve Young, Dan Fouts, Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Randall Cunningham, and Warren Moon. Only the last four mentioned didn't miss time due to injury. I believe Tom Brady's elite window opened in 2007 and the conditions are still right for him to remain in that window for at least this season. If have a pick near the turn, getting Brady in round one or early round two is well worth the gamble.


• Drew Brees: The Saints QB was the elite player last year due to Brady's injury. With all the talk about Pierre Thomas, let's remember one thing: the Saints throw the football to win games. They want to run more effectively, but let's not confuse Pierre Thomas' prospects with a 2009 version of Terrell Davis. You might like the RB's skills, but we're not going to see an offense based on four yards and a cloud of field turf chips unless Brees forgets to bring his arm to the huddle. When a QB amasses 5000 yards without a 1000-yard receiver, you should know Chuck Knox and Marty Schottenheimer aren't in the building.


• Aaron Rodgers: How many quarterbacks replace living legends and make you forget what everyone was worrying about by the end of their first season? This feat in itself should tell you all that you need to know. However if you want more reasons, consider the fact that Greg Jennings is one of the top five receivers in the league, Donald Driver is still a 1000-yard contributor, and James Jones and Jordy Nelson might be good enough to start for some teams. The Packers will need to run more effectively than the Saints, but this is still a passing offense. Rodgers spent enough time on the bench sitting and learning that I don't expect a drop-off in production in 2009. Derek Anderson and Joe Flacco might turn out to be flukes, but Rodgers was in the right situation to take the reigns and not look back.


• Kurt Warner: The Cardinals plan to be more balanced on offense this year. Well, Obama plans to pass a healthcare bill that doctors approve of; my fiancée plans to quit smoking; and I plan to get in better shape. I think the odds of real change happening with these four plans ranked from most likely to least is to go from my last stated plan to the first. Chris Wells is the equivalent of a high-performance sports car parked on an unpaved road filled with tons of loose rocks and potholes. There need to be some road graders before the Cardinals start driving it. Since Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston have an airport with well-paved runway just a few yards away I think it's a good bet that the Cardinals will transport themselves up and down the field like their mascot. While Arizona might work to achieve more balance, but it won't mean Kurt Warner will become 10th ranked fantasy QB in 2009. He's a safe bet for at least 3500 yards and 25 scores and more importantly, consistently high production weekly.

Here are the QBs in my rankings that stand out from what you might see elsewhere:

• Carson Palmer (No. 6): This appears to be a passing offense where everything has a good chance to click at the right time. Chad Ochocinco has regained enough sanity to be a professional football player first, and clown second. Although T.J. Houshmandzadeh is an excellent possession receiver, he needed other receivers to threaten the deep zone and preoccupy a defense for him to sneak downfield. Laveranues Coles may not be as reliable a possession guy, but he's not far off. He also has the speed to stretch the field and a reformed and focused Chris Henry is the wild card that should blow this offense wide open. In leagues without fantasy writers, you will probably find Carson Palmer available between rounds seven and nine. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he knocks one of the four players out of their projected spot. Remember, most Crank-consistent QBs lack a top-producing runner and have multiple, Crank-consistent WRs. On the strength of Ochocinco and Coles alone, Palmer qualifies.


• Trent Edwards (No. 9): Lee Evans and Terrell Owens are going to be Crank-consistent, starting WRs and Marshawn Lynch has proven he's a strong No. 2 RB, but not in a situation to be an elite runner. His suspension won't help matters, either. When a team decides to run a no-huddle offense and give their QB complete control over audibles at the line of scrimmage, it's time to take notice that the team is going to throw the ball early and often. Edwards is that perfect QB to get as the draft transitions to the late rounds (rounds 9-12), because he'll at least be a good rotation QB. I think he'll wind up being a top-seven QB who you get as the 12th-15th QB off the board.


• Tony Romo (No. 14): Roy Williams has the skills to be a fantastic receiver. I just don't think the Cowboys plan to air it out. Unless Michael Irvin truly got Jerry Jones a player in Jessie Holley or Sam Hurd can hold onto the ball better, Dallas lacks a true deep No. 2 WR. Teams that have a decent No. 1 WR and a strong TE paired with a very good rotation of backs don't have QBs throwing for 4000 yards. Think of the Chiefs, Giants, Ravens, and Chargers of recent years. For the most part, these teams ran the ball and hoped to throw the ball efficiently. Expect Dallas to move in this direction. Romo will have some decent games, but a lot of fantasy owners will be complaining about how bad he's become when the truth has more to do with the philosophical direction and not diminishing skill.

RB Projections

I don't need to explain much about running backs. Most of you are either in the camp where you are going to take two within the first three rounds or two within the first five rounds. I gave a thorough game plan for taking four RBs after round five as a high-risk alternative a few weeks ago. This year I would recommend you take two within the first five rounds in drafts with standard lineups and scoring. Personally, I think the appeal of a big-time QB and two strong receivers is hard to pass up. Plus, the turnover in the top 12 at RB is generally too great for me to take a chance on a second RB in round two, and possibly round three, when I can get quality receivers.

The rankings that stand out are a reflection of the information I've been covering for the past 2-3 months in this column and seems to fit the theme of a little game I'll call, "do you believe what coaches say?":

• Maurice Jones-Drew (No. 1): Although there are few RBs who do significant damage on the ground and through the air, those that do are great fantasy options for at least a few seasons. Marshall Faulk and Brian Westbrook come to mind immediately, and I think Maurice Jones-Drew is an excellent fit within that pantheon of runners. He's a good bet to catch 40 balls and get 250 carries. He's a rare player because he has enough power and balance to be used at the goal line and enough shiftiness and speed to be a dangerous open field runner. How many backs have you seen in the last decade get used at the goal line and kick returns? I can't remember any except for Jones-Drew. With a healthy offensive line, Jones-Drew will be counted on to shoulder the load and he's preparing for this to be the case. Jacksonville's passing game should be more efficient than last year, but make no mistake this is Jones-Drew's offense to carry. Adrian Peterson has a better line, but he also has more proven back up to spell him and his receiving skills aren't as strong as Jones-Drew. I think this added dimension as a receiver and the skills at the goal line and between the tackles that others are overlooking make the Jaguars RB a safer bet as the No. 1 RB in most leagues.


• Ronnie Brown (No. 3): The only reason Brown split time with Ricky Williams last year was the fact he was recovering from a torn ACL. Williams is still capable of excellent moments, but he is no longer the world-beater he once was. It normally takes two years for a back to regain enough of his pre-injury explosion and stamina to be a consistent factor. We saw this phenomenon with Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James and Frank Gore. I believe you will see it with Brown. More importantly, the Dolphins lack an upper echelon passing offense. As we saw last year, Chad Pennington played excellent football, but this is primarily a running offense that had some success when they had to employ the Wildcat after injuries hit. The addition of center Jake Grove to an offensive line that will be at full health should help Miami be more productive in situations where they couldn't produce as a full-fledged, power-oriented offense. The equation is there: power ground game, plus one workhorse back, plus mediocre passing game equals high-end, No. 1 fantasy RB stats. Brown was on his way to a dominant fantasy season in 2007, and I think the conditions are right for him to be a great second- or third-round value in 2009.


• DeAngelo Williams (No. 4): When Priest Holmes was a dominant fantasy force he wasn't downgraded because Larry Johnson was waiting in the wings. To be fair, Larry Johnson didn't endear himself to Chiefs coaching staff. However, Williams has done nothing to lose opportunities to Jonathan Stewart. Although the Panthers have an all-world WR in Steve Smith, they don't have much else in the passing game. This is a team that runs the football and uses Smith to stretch the field over top when defenses are forced to over play Carolina's RBs. I expect Stewart to get more carries, but this won't be a true RBBC. Williams will remain the lead back because he's proven he can get into the end zone as a short-yardage back and a breakaway runner. If anything, Stewart's skills will open things up for Williams when he does get the ball. Having Williams ranked outside the top five backs is something I just don't understand.


• Michael Turner (No. 8): This is the one time I truly believe a coaching staff is going to do what it says - reduce Turner's workload. The addition of Tony Gonzalez will allow Atlanta to have a more effective play action game. Most imagine the QB throwing deep off 1st and 10 or second and short play action, but the TE is often the greatest beneficiary in these situations. I can see Turner losing 4-5 attempts per game from last year's total in a more efficient, diversified offense. That's 64-80 fewer carries and up to 350 fewer yards if you give Turner a reasonable 4.4 YPC for 2009. Drop his TD total by 3-5 scores with Gonzalez in the mix and I think it makes sense to keep Turner in the top 12, but not in the top five.


• Ray Rice (No. 11): I've been talking about Rice since spring. He is a player I traded to get in a dynasty league because there are just some individuals you know are going to be successful. Rice has that warrior mentality you see from highly respected players and when he came into camp in better shape and the attitude that the job was his to earn, it was simply another illustration of what college fans saw from Rice doing his part to carry his Rutgers squad onto the college football landscape. Every year, I hear the same arguments about backs like Rice who are 5-8 or 5-9 and 199-205 lbs: "they are too small to be the focal point of the offense." And every year the list grows with names like Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, Charlie Garner, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sander, Thurman Thomas, Brian Westbrook, Maurice Jones Drew, and DeAngelo Williams. People forget that these runners will likely add enough muscle to their young bodies to be "big enough." Ray Rice is big enough and his team likes to run the football and play aggressive defense. Joe Flacco played within himself as a rookie - a big compliment to his wherewithal - but if Derrick Mason doesn't change his mind, the passing game isn't taking a step forward in 2009. However, Ray Rice will.


• LaDainian Tomlinson (No. 12): Incredible back on a team that now has a borderline elite QB, a borderline elite WR, and an elite TE. Like Atlanta, who has the surrounding talent and quality of line play to do it, the Chargers are an example of team you should also listen to when they tell the media that the wish to be more balanced offensively. Tomlinson is capable of having one last season of greatness, but the offensive conditions with his team don't appear to make this as likely. I believe Tomlinson has another two to three years of starter worthy production, but not at a dominant level - especially on a team where it's no longer required for him to be the statistical leader.


• Knowshon Moreno (No. 13): As I mentioned to Sigmund Bloom on the Audible a couple of weeks ago, I don't care what Josh McDaniels wants to do with his offensive system. I only care about what's likely to happen. He alienated Jay Cutler. He's close to alienating Brandon Marshall, who isn't fully healthy, missed reps to install the new offense with his new QB, and has a chance of missing time due to his chaotic personal dramas. And he's got to choose between two QBs who can't come close to doing what Jay Cutler could when the pocket broke down. I have a feeling this offense is going to be an unmitigated disaster to begin the season and for McDaniels to save his bacon, he'll need to do the one thing this offense has always done well: run the football. Knowshon Moreno has what it takes to be a 1500-yard, 15-score back in this league behind the right kind of line. If McDaniels didn't screw up the blocking scheme the way former Falcons' head coach Bobby Petrino did in his short tenure, Moreno should be good for 1200 yards on the ground and up to 400 yards as a receiver.


• Clinton Portis (No. 14): Having Portis this low makes me nervous in the same way it did ranking Curtis Martin as a second round back in the later stages of his career when he had alternating years of excellence. However, Jason Campbell is a candidate to move up my rankings if WR Devin Thomas continues to show improvement with the pads on. If so, I'm keeping Portis in the high-end No. 2 RB range because Campbell has shown the ability to take coaching, and one thing Jim Zorn does well is coach quarterbacks. Santana Moss and Devin Thomas playing to their potential could be an underrated receiving unit, especially with Chris Cooley manning the middle.


• Brian Westbrook (No. 15): This is the lowest I've ranked Westbrook in five years and if he continues to rehab quickly from his surgery the ranking will be too low. However, the discussion of limiting his goal line opportunities is enough of a concern to drop the RB out of the top seven picks. He might be a big-play back, but projecting more than five or six touchdowns of more than 20 yards isn't something I'm comfortable doing. There is also a difference between having general fitness and being in football shape, which means he could struggle early in the year. Even with these question marks and the presence of rookie LeSean McCoy, Westbrook is still an excellent pick as your No. 2 RB in fantasy drafts.


• Donald Brown (No. 16): At this point, I'm not drafting Brown anywhere near his ranking. On the surface, it appears Brown has a long way to go before fantasy owners can see a tangible reason to ranking him as a No. 2 RB in any league. Joseph Addai is a decent incumbent with excellent knowledge of the Colts' system. However, Brown has two qualities that I think are better than what Addai brings to the table: excellent fitness and big-play ability. Surely Addai is in decent shape, but Brown is renown for his work ethic to be in tip-tip shape. Addai has dealt with enough injuries that I suspect his fitness regimen isn't at the same level, because his workouts have to focus more frequently on a certain body part. There hasn't been much stated about Brown before training camp so I expect the rookie to be a fast riser in August.


• Brandon Jacobs (No. 18): This is a pretty low ranking and I have two explanations for it. The first is I admittedly have some bias against larger backs. I believe backs over 240 lbs. are more prone to take as much punishment as they dish out. As a result, I bet they tend to experience injuries that are harder to perform with. When a back as big as Jacobs is healthy, they are entertaining to watch and can provide excellent production. I personally don't want to count on Jacobs to be an every week, No. 1 fantasy RB because I think about bigger backs who sandwiched strong years with several years of three- , four-, and five-games missed in a season. The other reason is the Giants run a three-headed RB committee that I think limits Jacobs' upside as a fantasy runner. Ahmad Bradshaw is a talented enough runner to perform like a No. 2 fantasy RB on his own and Danny Ware was a great physical specimen at the University of Georgia who lacked the maturity and perspective to hone his craft while he was there. It appears Ware has turned that corner as a pro, and we'll see him more often in Derrick Ward's old slot in the rotation. Both Bradshaw and Ware are more dynamic runners, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if Jacobs gets fewer carries as a result.


• Rashard Mendenhall (No. 19): As you see, Willie Parker is nowhere to be found in my top 24. It's because my selection of Mendenhall this early is one of my big risk - big reward gambles in drafts. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin's take in Mendenhall's role in the offense is simple: the second-year RB will determine his role with his performance in camp. As some of you know, Mendenhall couldn't shake Pierre Thomas from the top of the Illinois depth chart early in his college career. Although this was a source of consternation to some, Thomas turned out to be a pretty good player and when Mendenhall earned his opportunity to start, he didn't disappoint. It's no surprise that Mendenhall wasn't as quick to adjust as a rookie, however he has worked hard in the offseason, which has been evident by his mini camp performance. Physically, the second-year runner is everything a team could ask for: he's a faster version of Steven Jackson running behind a team that prides itself for its physical style of football. The official Footballguys.com stance is Mendenhall will be groomed for 2010. Definitely the safe perspective, but with the way the RB position changes so much each year, I'm taking the riskier play.


• Marion Barber III (No. 20): Felix Jones and Tashard Choice are players the Cowboys want to use more often and I believe the Cowboys offense will look more like the New York Giants attack now that Terrell Owens is gone. Like the Giants, expect a three-headed committee approach with Barber as the lead back, but enough opportunities for the electric Jones and the determined Choice to cut into Barber's production. I could see drafting him five to six spots higher on the RB rankings if you believe Roy Williams will perform like he's capable and keep defenses honest against the run.

WR Projections

As a group, receivers have the highest X-Values in their elite tier and there are more starter tier receivers with higher values than other positions. This has a lot to do with the fact that they are just as Crank-consistent (or more) as runners and standard fantasy lineups require more of them.

If you have no higher than the sixth pick in a draft, I recommend you seriously consider the idea of taking two receivers with your opening picks. Starting your draft with two of the following is an excellent opening move: Randy Moss, Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald.

Here are my takes on 10 receivers on this list that should be on your mind for various reasons:

• Larry Fitzgerald (No. 5): He's one of my favorite players in this league right now, but I think expectations are too high for him in 2009. Yes, he took his game up a notch in the playoffs, doing it with injuries to his hands. However, let's not forget that Anquan Boldin was playing with a hamstring issue during that time, and he missed regular season games with fractured cheekbones. I think a healthy Anquan Boldin and an ascending talent in Steve Breaston will continue to make it difficult for teams to solely focus on Fitzgerald. At the same time, Kurt Warner will distribute the ball among the three receivers enough that I think Fitzgerald's ceiling is lower than the other elite receivers on my list. He's a great No. 1 WR, but just not in a situation to be the absolute top guy. If you are looking for as much of a lock to give you excellent production each week as you can get from a receiver, Fitzgerald is your guy. If you are looking for the potential for monster games any given week, look eastward to one of Fitz's former Minnesota mentors.


• Chad Ochocinco (No. 8): Getting along with your quarterback isn't that important if you're playing like an All-Pro. When healthy and focused, Ochocinco is just that type of receiver. After laboring through the worst season of his career in 2008, the loquacious receiver had a "come to Jesus" type of offseason. He's in great shape, and ready for redemption. He's still going to try to be the center of attention, but I think we'll see a lot more of it on the field in a positive way and a little less of it in an annoying, self-seeking and distracting way. I would look at the Bengals offense a lot like people view the Cardinals' unit: three strong receivers and a very good quarterback compensating for a suspect running game. I don't think there is a reason to worry about Chris Henry or Laveranues Coles cutting into Ochocinco's opportunities. If anything, they will enhance the opportunities he receives to be a sold, No. 1 fantasy receiver. Remember, Crank-consistent receivers at the No. 1 level often come in pairs (Coles and/or Henry) and they play on a team with a strong QB (Palmer) and average ground game. If anything, look for one of the other receivers to be a pleasant (Coles) or major (Henry) surprise.


• T.J. Houshmandzadeh (No. 16): As you can see from my Ochocinco ranking, I think most people have it backwards: Ochocinco made Houshmandzadeh more dangerous. If you're looking for consistent numbers, Seattle's new prize WR will epitomize it this year. I think you can probably plug him in for 70-80 yards a week and a score every other game. However, if you're looking for closer to top-12 numbers, I think you'd be better off with players who can get deep on their own. Houshmandzadeh's long receptions in Cincinnati often came from the slot. The Bengals frequently lined Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry wide and then had Houshmandzadeh run corner routes or streaks against a safety or overmatched nickel DB. Seattle doesn't have a deep threat remotely on the level of the Bengals corps. Heck, they don't have a starting-caliber WR with deep speed that has both more than a year of experience and a non-surgically repaired ACL. I'll gladly make Houshmandzadeh my No. 2 WR if I can pick him between the fourth and sixth rounds.


• Lance Moore (No. 18): Moore should be ready for the start of the season, but this ranking actually accounts for his ongoing rehab to his surgically repaired labrum. I would have him 5-7 spots higher if he were entering camp at full health. Sure, he's small. So is Drew Brees, and Brees is the most accurate QB in football. He may not always have the highest completion percentage, but from the standpoint of natural accuracy, especially the deep ball, it's not even close. Brees will find Moore whenever he wants, and it will be often. Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey may be back and Marques Colston might be the No. 1 WR, but I believe Brees is in the middle of one of those windows of elite play. I don't expect 5000 yards from the QB once again, but 4000-4500 is still a strong possibility and I can see Moore getting 1100 of those yards with 7-8 scores even with a slow September.


• Steve Smith (Giants) (No. 19): Fantasy owners and media types often get it backwards with receivers. If they see the guy ran past a CB for a long touchdown, they immediately come away impressed. Next thing you know, the "future" of the receiver position is some draft pick who can stretch the field vertically. "Once he refines his routes, he'll make a great pro," people say. I'm guilty of it sometimes. However, I don't fail to recognize that it's better to have a young receiver with great route skills and fearlessness over the middle than a temperamental thoroughbred. Steve Smith has shown what he can do over the middle. Now that he'll get a chance to play outside with greater frequency and the Giants will actually need him to use some of that 4.4 speed, we're going to see the beginning of a lot more fantasy production. Let your pals keeping nodding their heads with self-satisfaction after picking Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham, or David Tyree. That's about the only satisfaction they will receive for a long time. Smith will easily be a 1000-yard receiver with six to eight scores. He's going to be the No. 3 WR on a lot of successful fantasy teams this fall.


• Kevin Walter (No. 29): A lot of people believe Matt Schaub has top-five potential as a fantasy producer because he plays for an offensive-friendly coach, his team struggles defensively, and his division has three other play-off caliber teams. The reason Schaub is rated lower is sometimes unwritten: will he stay healthy enough to compile these numbers? If Schaub stays healthy, someone has to get the balls not thrown to Andre Johnson. Owen Daniels might be a nice H-back, but he's the No. 3 option. Walter may have been inconsistent last year, but so was Sage Rosenfels. Three of Walter's best efforts were in games with Schaub under center. Walter reminds me of Ed McCaffrey; whether you attribute it to the NFL or Walter, he's a slow-but-steady, developing player. He's not my ideal No. 3 WR, but I feel I could do much worse than to draft him there.


• Earl Bennett (No. 30): He isn't the biggest or the fastest, but one thing Bennett can do better than his peers on the Bears roster is catch the ball in traffic. I would view Chicago's passing attack this way: Greg Olsen will be the primary threat (80 catches), and be frequently split wide or in the slot; Devin Hester will be the deep threat, making one big catch per game and dropping a frustrating number of intermediate routes; and Earl Bennett will be the utility option, often used in the slot with Olsen split wide to draw match up advantages. I could see Bennett shocking the league and catching up to 90 balls from Cutler this year, but that's if the defense implodes and the Bears have to throw a lot more than they hope. It's more likely Bennett catches 60 balls and becomes a deceptively good red zone option for 8-9 scores. He may not be a yardage machine, but he'll be an undervalued receiver in both PPR and non-PPR formats.


• Percy Harvin (No. 35): Even without Brett Favre, I think fellow FBG staffer Bob Henry and I see Harvin in a similar light. He's a playmaker with enough versatility to make a significant rookie impact. I've seen the Shark Pool thread inquiring about Harvin having any similarities to former Bengal Peter Warrick. If it wasn't answered clearly enough for your satisfaction there: the answer is no. Peter Warrick made a name for himself as a quick player thriving off stop-start, changes of direction in college. He was only moderately successful in the pros because you cannot reverse field or stop your momentum and create separation as easily. Players like Warrick and Reggie Bush may have seemed more Barry Sanders-like at the college level, but they were merely allowing defenders to catch up with them in the NFL. Percy Harvin runs downhill. It's why he was used so effectively between the tackles as a spread formation runner at Florida. He actually graded out better than several running back prospects on training camp rosters when I studied him for my Rookie Scouting Portfolio at specifically that position. If Brad Childress uses Harvin in the Wildcat formation, we will see some of this come to light in the NFL. As a receiver, Harvin is much better than people with a long-standing Florida bias against their WR prospects would expect. I believe 80 touches is a very reasonable scenario for Harvin. If he averages 10 yards per touch, he'll be an excellent flex player or No. 3 WR.


• Jerricho Cotchery (No. 37): Cotchery is a Houshmandzadeh type with a little more speed. Now that Laveranues Coles and Brett Favre are gone, are you sure you want him as a No. 2 fantasy WR on your roster? Crank-consistent WRs often have a quality running mate, and I don't see a proven No. 2 WR in New York. The best New York receiver to fit into a No. 2 role might be Hakeem Nicks, the rookie playing across town. Throw in a new QB and three decent running backs behind a very good run-blocking offensive line and I'm just not thrilled about Cotchery this year. As bad as Brett Favre looked down the stretch, he did more to make the receivers look good than they did to help him. Sorry Favre haters, his "will-I or won't-I" drama might disgust you, but he did more for the Jets unit than they did for him. Mark Sanchez isn't going to repeat Matt Ryan's rookie year. Cotchery might approach 800-900 yards, but that's a bye week option and a No. 4 fantasy WR for me.


• Hakeem Nicks (No. 42): I believe the rookie will do enough in 2009 to get fantasy owners salivating over him in 2010. He already has performed well enough in mini camp and OTAs to have teammates believing he'll have an impact season as a rookie. Nick's catches the ball as well as a fifth-year veteran possession receiver in the NFL and he has the strength and athleticism to make big plays. If Smith and Nicks hit on all cylinders this season, Eli Manning and the Giants offense could be a major surprise. I'm not that optimistic, but I think Nicks will have four or five games that generate huge buzz. If he can have another four or five that are workmanlike, you're looking at a valuable No. 4 option.

TE Projections

I have a proclivity for believing that the X-Value is only important for tight ends when selecting your first one off the board. If you're going to select more than one, make sure that you're in a very deep draft (more than 20 rounds) or in a non-waiver wire league. Otherwise, I believe it's just a waste of potential value to pass up opportunities to get more runners and receivers.

The safest bet is Jason Witten. I know, tell you something that you don't know. Fine. The next safest bet is Greg Olsen. As mentioned earlier in this piece, I think 80 catches for Olsen is likely. More importantly, his coaches think 80 catches for Olsen is likely. Getting Olsen in round eight is still likely, but that is a rapidly changing scenario in leagues where owners have a clue. Considering how safe a player I think he is, I believe the upside makes him worth reaching a round or two higher if you must - especially in PPR leagues.

Otherwise, between Tony Gonzalez and Anthony Fasano, the rest of the players are a blur with the exception of Kellen Winslow. The Bucs new TE has a real shot at numbers we're seeing projected for Olsen, because I think Tampa will have to check down a lot more in a new scheme with new quarterbacks.

If you're looking late, there are guys with a lot of potential:

• Dustin Keller: If it's true that a young quarterback's best friend is a tight end then Keller is a nice late-round value. He has big-play ability and I expect he'll be more acclimated to the pros in his second-year. As Jeff Pasquino aptly comments in his rankings: "Whenever I want value at the TE position I look for a team that has next to nothing at the No. 2 WR position…" Keller fits the bill and he has the skills to someday be a top-five fantasy TE.


• Vernon Davis: Davis is about to become this decade's version of WR Michael Westbrook: an unbelievable physical talent with capability of dominating opponents weekly, but for various reasons frustrates fantasy owners far more than he fulfills their wishes. Will Jimmy Raye's Chief-based offense and Mike Singletary's John Brown's in Davis' hind parts do the trick in 2009? Your guess is as good as mine. If you works out for you then congratulations on your perseverance but he's the greatest risk-reward player in this years' draft.


• Jared Cook: I'm thinking Cook is one of two tight ends that just might be worth selecting towards the end of your drafts. He might be used more as a wide receiver, dovetailing nicely with Pasquino's thoughts on TE's playing for teams without a true, No. 2 WR. I know Nate Washington is seen as an upgrade in Tennessee, but as a Titans fan I've also seen that LP field is the place where free agent receivers go to die. Next to Davis, Cook might have the most physical upside of any receiving TE in the NFL. He's impressed enough that the Titans are talking about using him a lot as a rookie. If they do, it will be split wide or in the slot.


• Cornelius Ingram: Boy was I down on Ingram in my 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Knee-injury, lazy play away from the football when on the field, and inconsistent effort running routes really put me off. However, I also said Ingram has topnotch physical skills and if he plays like he's capable he's a great prospect. Fast forward to mini camp and Ingram feels healthy, the knee doesn't appear to be as much of a concern (although I suspect he'll truly be 100 percent in 2010), and he has the Eagles very excited about his immediate prospects. Considering the Eagles also have some question marks at the No. 2 WR spot, Ingram could be a major surprise. In deep drafts, I just might try to pick two of these last four players and see if I hit big.