The Weekly Gut Check - What Makes WRs and TEs Consistent?

  Posted 8/5 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Part VI of a series devoted to incorporating risk into your draft.

WARNING: If you are looking for the safest way to win a league, this month-long series is not the answer. However, the ideas, trends, and players mentioned here should help you with your individual approach in leagues where your peers also have a strong knowledge base. The key is how much you want to "break the rules." If "high-risk" in your daily life means taking a different way to work, and the word "reach" makes you cringe, then keep your GPS switched on, check out David Dodds' annual piece "The Perfect Draft." His well-conceived strategy should give you a good shot at a contender through by-the-book picks and depth. Consider these articles as a creative place where you see how "pushing the envelope" could work out for you and incorporate what you like/dislike accordingly.

This week: I am profiling consistency factors for WRs and TEs and posting previous seasons of Crank Data at these positions for your reference. Next week, I will conclude this series with my initial set of Crank Projections for 2009. For last week's RB and QB consistency factors click here.

Consistency Factors: What We Have Learned

In most cases there is an inverse relationship between a Crank-consistent RB and his QB, and a Crank-consistent QB and his RB. Unless the RB is used prominently as a receiver, you're most likely to find a high performing, Crank-consistent QB or RB, but not both in the same offense. It's a worthwhile reminder of common sense that if one of these positions is the focal point of the offense, then the other isn't as likely to do as much as a complement compared to his peers on other teams.

We also learned high performing, Crank-consistent QBs have high performing, Crank-Consistent WRs and/or TEs. We're going to look for other factors that contribute to a good Crank WR and TE and give quick observations on some players in 2009 based on this information.

WR Consistency Factors

Here are the past three years of Crank Scores for the top 36 WRs in 12-team leagues with Footballguys.com scoring:

2008 WR Crank Scores

Notes
* = Three seasons in the top 36 from 2006-2008
# = Two seasons in the top 36 from 2006-2008
(3) = Three seasons in the top 12 from 2006-2008
(2) = Two seasons in the top 12 from 2006-2008

The continuity from year to year at WR is very similar to running back. Nearly one-third (11 of 36) of the top 36 receivers have been starters in three-receiver, fantasy lineups for the past three seasons while exactly one-third (8 out of 24) of runners have been starters in two-RB, fantasy lineups for the past three seasons. Two-thirds of the receivers have been fantasy starter worthy for two of the past three seasons. Only 13 of the 24 RBs were starter worth for two of the last three seasons. Receivers have a slight advantage in continuity as fantasy starters.

Both positions had their fair share of rookies and first-timers perform like worthwhile fantasy starters. There were seven runners who made the top 24 in Crank at their position as first-year starters: DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, and Le'Ron McClain. In contrast, wide receiver is generally recognized as a tougher position to produce like a starter as a rookie, or in their first year with significant playing time. However, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, Donald Avery, and Lance Moore were all first-time starters, and Steve Breaston, Calvin Johnson and Ted Ginn were receivers in just their second seasons. I don't believe this is a trend as much as it is a cycle: every so often, enough veteran receivers decline in production or retire that there is a demand for first-time receivers to break into a starting lineup. Last year was a good example.

2007 WR Crank Scores

2006 WR Crank Scores

There are two arguments in favor of drafting the very best receivers with one of your first two picks off the board in 2 RB-3 WR fantasy lineups. From 2006-2008 there were four receivers with three years in the Crank Top 12. In contrast, there was only one back that accomplished the same feat. At the same time, there are four backs with two years in the Crank Top 12 and only one receiver with the same feat. This only gives receivers a 6-5 edge in continuity, but when you compare how often these players reach Crank tiers the advantage becomes clearer. From 2006-2008, in a comparison of players with at least a 40 percent Elite score, the edge goes to the receivers 22-11. Receivers also hold a 13-2 score when measuring the Elite score at 50 percent. This helps validate the idea that if you are picking past the fifth spot in a 12-team league that considering one of the top receivers with your first pick is a sound strategy.

Although there are more RBs than WRs with performances in the No. 1 (top 12) and No. 2 (top 24) tiers, remember there are an extra twelve starting receivers to consider. If you grab one of the elite receivers, and still get two quality starting backs, you're likely to hold a points edge each week due to the fact you will still likely get a quality No. 3 receiver.

In terms of what makes a receiver consistent, let's run through the possible factors. An average of seven of the top 12 receivers from 2006-2008 were over 6'2" and 210 lbs., but don't go off the deep end drafting pass catchers with these physical requirements. There are still notable players of average or smaller dimensions that perform among the best at their position (Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings and Torry Holt for example).

One thing that stands out immediately is that an average of seven of the top 12 receivers from 2006-2008 had a teammate in the top 36 WRs or a top 12 TEs. This is a big sign that you're looking for receivers from prolific passing offenses. There are certainly exceptions like Calvin Johnson and possibly Andre Johnson, both physical freaks of nature who can produce consistently against double coverage. I would argue the Panthers' Steve Smith as belongs in this small group.

This tells me if you're looking for a rebound year from a player like Braylon Edwards, who lost Kellen Winslow and his QB's 2007 performance is likely an anomaly, I wouldn't expect him to rebound all the way back to the top 12. Nether Mike Furrey, Brian Robiskie, nor Muhammad Massoquoi will do enough to help Edwards return to No.1 fantasy starter status.

In contrast, only a little more than three receivers per year in the top 12 had an RB teammate also in the top 12. This may indicate that the more promising the RB is productive for a team, the less likely there will be a fantasy No.1 WR also on that squad.

One minor surprise was the fact that these three seasons of top 36 lists were comprised predominantly of receivers who were excellent at stretching the field vertically. There were exceptions, but even the WRs not known as great deep threats could get behind a secondary frequently enough to keep defenses honest (Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, and Derrick Mason). I can count very few Crank-consistent WRs that aren't at least somewhat effective on deep routes: Marty Booker, Wes Welker, and Muhsin Muhammad are the only ones in these three tables that stand out. Maybe you'll find a few more, but not a lot.

Most receivers in the top 12-15 each year have at least five catches per game (between 70-80 per year). These are the safe bets to also be in the top 36 because of the opportunities they receive. However, it's clear that pure possession receivers who can't get deep and have strong production are rare. Other than Wes Welker who is working opposite the greatest deep threat of all time and catching passes from Tom Brady, I'd rather take my chances on the deep threats.

I would argue that most receivers with a high yardage total on fewer than 65 receptions in a season are likely used as a one-dimensional deep threat in today's pass-happy NFL. However they have potential to develop into fully dimensional primary weapons in subsequent seasons and this is something to watch for when developing projections at the position. Vincent Jackson, Bernard Berrian, DeSean Jackson and Lee Evans are players who met these conditions last year as deep threats. In 2007, Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson, and Santonio Holmes were classic deep threats according to this definition. Although Holmes didn't perform as expected in the regular season, Johnson and Jennings proved they were elite fantasy producers, and Holmes flashed he's capable on the biggest stage of all. Braylon Edwards demonstrated the same promise in 2006 before his elite 2007 season.

Although there are certainly players who don't follow up the next season with these statistical precursors from the season before (Reggie Brown and Reggie Williams), there are still plenty of productive receivers who simply remain good deep threats: Joey Galloway, Isaac Bruce (the late years), Lee Evans, and Bernard Berrian all have been decent fantasy starters in recent years despite never taking that next step in subsequent seasons. A player like Mark Clayton seems to be headed in this direction at worst, although he still has a chance to be more. The same can be said for Santonio Holmes.

I would also make sure you're picking receivers on teams with a quarterback who can throw the deep ball. Chad Pennington is a great example of a QB of a team with receivers you don't want to get too excited about. He might make a good backup fantasy QB in some leagues but I don't care how good his receivers could be, I'm not counting on them developing into true fantasy starters with him throwing the ball unless Miami reverts to the run and shoot (dink and dunk). I would encourage you to take them in the late rounds, but I'd rather have Chris Henry - a veritable backup - than Ted Ginn Jr.

Tight end play is also an interesting factor. Did you know that from 2006-2008, there were an average of three receivers playing on a team with a top 12 Crank-consistent TE that also produced as top 12 Crank-consistent WRs? The Jason Witten and Dallas Clark were fantasy starter tight ends with receivers who cracked the top 12, but the only other tight end to make this list from 2006-2008 with a WR in tow was Kellen Winslow. This should tell you the best of the best WRs don't have a TE as a strong complement; it's usually another starting quality WR. You'll find good No. 2 and No. 3 fantasy starting WRs with strong TE play, but three out of four receivers in the top 12 didn't have a production peer at TE.

In review, here's what I think makes WRs Crank-consistent:

1. Top 36 WRs have a teammate at WR and/or TE with strong Crank-consistent productivity from previous years.
2. The QB has a history of Crank-consistent productivity or is taking the reigns of an offense that passes more productively than it runs the ball.
3. They catch at least 5 balls per game and if they don't, they have a high yards per catch average. Considering the examples, these deep threats have a strong RB or ground game in the fold that helps the offense stretch the field.
4. Receivers who have a season with a top 36 ranking from a season with a high yards per catch reception and more than 40 receptions are likely flashing bigger production to come.
5. Top 12 WRs are three times more likely to have a second WR in the top 36 than a TE teammate in the top 12 at their position.
6. An average of three, top-12 WRs per season from 2006-2008 had a top 12 RB as a teammate.

With these guidelines in mind, here are players that are noteworthy in either an overrated or underrated way:

• Reggie Brown: Everyone is talking about Jeremy Maclin, but I can't see him performing any better than as a slot receiver this year. He didn't show enough at Missouri to be more than this. Unless he improved dramatically as a route runner, he'll need a year or two. Remember, Philadelphia hasn't had a history of drafting great receivers in the Andy Reid-coached regime. What has changed with the Eagles' staff or front office? DeSean Jackson is arguably the best player they've picked at the position since Mike Quick. Kevin Curtis has proven he can play, but his ability to stay healthy is a real issue. Reggie Brown could sneak up on fantasy owners. He had two "precursor seasons" in terms of reasonably good productivity off a low-catch total. Then he got hurt last year. So far he's looked excellent in camp. He's a potential late-round/waiver wire steal at a low cost.
• Brandon Marshall: He has a quality young receiver opposite him in Eddie Royal, but can Kyle Orton throw the deep ball well enough to make Marshall nearly as effective as he was with Jay Cutler? I don't think so. I'm beginning to sour on Marshall as the "Randy Moss-threat" in the Josh McDaniels offense. Remember, Moss had Tom Brady in 2007 after being a mediocre starter with Kerry Collins in '05-'06. Even with a surprisingly decent Matt Cassel, he was not the same world-beater. Marshall needs a "Tom Brady-threat" and he doesn't have one this year.
• Mike Walker: If Torry Holt is healthy enough to perform at 75% of his peak capacity, I think Walker is in one of those offenses that are the exception to the rule for Crank-Consistency. Maurice Jones-Drew is a topnotch RB who can catch the ball and David Garrard demonstrated top-7 Crank-consistency in 2007 when then Jaguars offensive line was healthy. I believe Walker has the skills to be a primary WR and an excellent late-round value.
• Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks: I love their potential, but if the Giants remain primarily a ground attack, neither of these receivers will crack the top 15 at their position. Odds are likely, this team continues to ground and pound, which I believe means either Smith or Nicks could make a decent starter as a fantasy No. 2 or No. 3. Jerry Rice likes Smith, and I understand why. However, Nicks has the best combo of skills. This in itself makes the Giants unit a huge gamble, but both receivers are going late in most drafts.
• T.J. Houshmandzadeh: The former Bengal might be boycotting EA Sports' Madden game because his rating is too low, but I think Madden's crew got it right. He's not really a deep threat and barely someone I would consider decent at getting open vertically without help opposite him. His best deep route is the corner route from the slot, which illustrates my point. Deion Branch is not Chad Ochocinco and he's still recovering from his ACL tear. Nate Burleson is not even a year removed from his ACL tear. Who is the deep threat or primary threat opposite Seattle's new guy? I'm having a tough time justifying how I can continue to keep Houshmandzadeh near my top 15. However, who is going to run the ball for Seattle? By the sheer necessity that they may need to throw the football often, Houshmandzadeh could continue to be the ultimate possession receiver in fantasy football. If this turns out to be the case, he could be the guy with the most consistent weekly stat line in fantasy football 7-9 catches, 60-80 yards and a score every two weeks.
• Chris Henry: If there is a team this year that could follow the Arizona Cardinals with three, 1000-yard receivers, my long shot money is on the Bengals. Chris Henry is arguably the most talented No. 3 WR in the league and all reports from Cincinnati indicate he has matured enough for his football career to blossom. Although Houshmandzadeh is a great possession player and the best red zone receiver the Bengals had, Laveranues Coles and Chad Ochocinco are better all-around players in terms of route running anywhere on the field. A healthy Carson Palmer and healthy Ochocinco could be the underpinnings of a special year offensively because all three receivers in Cincinnati can beat defenses deep and Henry is a very tough to cover one on one because he's such a talented physical specimen.

TE Consistency Factors

2008 TE Crank Scores

Notes
* = Three seasons in the top 36 from 2006-2008
# = Two seasons in the top 36 from 2006-2008
(3) = Three seasons in the top 12 from 2006-2008
(2) = Two seasons in the top 12 from 2006-2008

2007 TE Crank Scores

2006 TE Crank Scores

At least two of Witten, Gates and Gonzalez were ranked in the top three from 2006-2008. They aren't any more physically talented than Vernon Davis, Ben Watson, or the healthiest versions of Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey, and Kellen Winslow, Jr. However, they are more dangerous down the intermediate seam of a defense than players like Chris Cooley, Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, or Heath Miller - whose athleticism is good, but just a notch below.

Although the top three at the position have some continuity, only five players in the top 12 in 2008 were repeat performers. This is a bit low for the position historically; we generally see eight or nine players make the top 12 for at least a two-year period (see the 2006 and 2007 tables).

Witten and Gates had good young quarterbacks throwing them the ball. Gates also had Drew Brees for one season. However, Gonzalez has never played with a topnotch passer. Nor has Gonzalez performed with a top producer at RB since 2006. If anything, this might validate that a good TE is a young QB's security blanket.

When you examine the relationship between productive Crank-consistent TEs and their RB teammates, you find that an average of five of the top 12 Crank-consistent TEs each season had a top-12, Crank-consistent RB on their team. Although this is almost twice the rate of success with a quality RB in the fold compared to receivers, it's still not a great indicator for projecting consistency. The average does climbs closer to seven TEs if you include backs in the top 24. Yet this still isn't valuable enough information to factor into your projections.

This lack of any strong correlation with other positions illustrates to me that the starting quality TEs are often on teams where there is no clear-cut superstar at receiver or running back. If there is, it's more likely to be a runner. This makes sense because from a play-calling standpoint, there is a tendency for defenses to get sucked into the box to play the run and this opens up the short and intermediate play action passing in the middle of the field.

An average of over seven TEs per year in the top 12 from 2006-2008 are players who frequently lined up wide or in the slot in their respective offenses. This indicates they are valued as receivers a will be featured prominently in the offense. The coaches have confidence in their athleticism to make plays against outside linebackers and safeties.

Piecing this information into projection guidelines, here is what I think is important to consider:

1. The elite TEs tend to dominate the fantasy world for at least 3-4 seasons, if not longer. You have a good shot to be right on at least two of the top three TEs if you project from the previous season.
2. When that one new TE enters the top three at his position, he is a player capable of playing split from the offensive line.
3. An average of seven of the top-12 TEs are players that are split away from the offensive line frequently.
4. Although not a strong factor, it is more likely for a top-12 TE to have a strong starter at RB than a strong starter at WR.

There's not as much to use with TEs compared to receivers, but thankfully it's a position where you can often find decent match ups on the waiver wire. Plus, I believe these factors will soon change because the type of athletes getting drafted into the NFL in recent seasons. Right now, here's what I think these factors say about the players we'll be considering this summer:

• Jason Witten and Antonio Gates: I think they will be the two players who remain in the top three at their position. They have decent QB play, solid running, and at least one downfield threat at WR. However, I don't think any of their teammates will be elite performers this year.
• Tony Gonzalez: I'm on the fence with Gonzalez. Moving two a new offense is an adjustment, but it seems he's played in different offenses and quarterbacks with Kansas City more often than other players change teams. As a veteran, I expect him to make the adjustment. However, I think Roddy White and Michael Turner will perform well enough that Gonzalez won't be the first option in the red zone or other situations where he was top dog in the Chiefs offense. We're hearing reports from some journalists speculating that Turner could have a Priest Holmes-like season and Gonzalez could have 10 scores. It's possible, but that means Matt Ryan is going to vault into the elite starters this year. If you believe this, then take your chances. Personally, I think Ryan will be better in 2009, but his best years will still be ahead of him. Right now, I think he's slightly over valued.
• Greg Olsen: I liked him before I did this analysis, and the fact that Chicago doesn't appear to have a stud receiver advances the notion that the Bears hope to get their TE 80 receptions in this offense. Jay Cutler has the skills the put him in the same conversation as Tony Romo and Philip Rivers and Matt Forte is very good, but not great. Olsen also frequently split away from the line last year. He's my top candidate to crack the top three in 2009.
• Vernon Davis: Isaac Bruce's skills have diminished from "all-world" to "decent starter" and the passing offense has been scaled back. A young QB's best friend is a good TE and Davis has the athleticism to be among the elite. I think he improves his stats this year, but I'm not counting on superstardom - maybe top five if everything works out - still a good bargain.
• Jeremy Shockey: The argument "he's got to throw it to somebody" doesn't work here. Drew Brees throws it to everybody. Remember, the Saints QB had 5000 yards without a 1000-yard receiver last year. Shockey has underachieved for most of his career. With a healthy Bush, Thomas, Colston, and Moore, Shockey isn't a player I expect to be more than a situational player with value to infrequent on a weekly basis.

Next article: My first set of Crank Projections for 2009.