The Weekly Gut Check - What Makes RBs and QBs Consistent?

  Posted 7/20 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Part V of a series devoted to incorporating risk into your draft.

WARNING: If you are looking for the safest way to win a league, this month-long series is not the answer. However, the ideas, trends, and players mentioned here should help you with your individual approach in leagues where your peers also have a strong knowledge base. The key is how much you want to "break the rules." If "high-risk" in your daily life means taking a different way to work, and the word "reach" makes you cringe, then keep your GPS switched on, check out David Dodds' annual piece "The Perfect Draft." His well-conceived strategy should give you a good shot at a contender through by-the-book picks and depth. Consider these articles as a creative place where you see how "pushing the envelope" could work out for you and incorporate what you like/dislike accordingly.

This week, I am profiling consistency factors for RBs and QBs and posting previous seasons of Crank Data at these positions for your reference. Next week, I will do the same for WRs and TEs. And the week after that, I'll provide my initial set of Crank Score Projections.

Consistency Factors: What Makes A Player Consistent?

This may be the most important, and toughest, question to answer about player consistency. How does one project consistency with reasonable success? Although for the past four years I've had numerous e-mails from readers touting this method as a huge reason for their fantasy football success, I have no illusions of Crank being some magic pill to dominate your league. Gauging consistency is helpful, but how to do it is still frontier territory. My goal is to continue to improve upon ways to use Crank as a projection tool.

The AVT/X-Value format I mentioned last week is a good start. The next step is to develop some logic behind placing the players into these predetermined spots. My buddy Parag, made an excellent suggestion in the Shark Pool forum that yardage is a more consistent factor than touchdowns and we would likely discover that the more consistent players are the yardage machines and not the scoring specialists. This is something we'll look into momentarily.

RB Consistency Factors

Here are the past three years of Crank Scores for the top 24 RBs in 12-team leagues with Footballguys.com scoring:

2006 RB Crank Scores

2007 RB Crank Scores

2008 RB Crank Scores

The data shows the better Crank performers come in all shapes and sizes, ranging from Michael Turner and Steven Jackson to Brian Westbrook and Maurice Jones Drew. There is not a physical prototype for high production. If anything, I'd argue backs 5-foot-10 and 225 pounds and under are generally more productive for the long haul. However, that's an entirely different article topic.

One potential factor is whether the runner plays in an effective passing offense. There are five backs that were Elite level players (top two) at least once from 2006-2008: LaDainian Tomlinson (twice), Brian Westbrook, DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, and Steven Jackson. Only Tomlinson and Westbrook had a QB make the top 12 in Crank in a season when they were Elite (McNabb (3rd) and Rivers (8th) in 2006). It's a small sample size, but only one-third of the six Elite RB performances in the past three seasons had quarterback considered a No. 1 quality fantasy starter (top 12) playing alongside them.

When we expand the sample size to the top 12 Crank RBs from 2006-2008, there are eight players who made it at least twice (Westbrook did it all three seasons). Other than Westbrook and Tomlinson mentioned above, Steven Jackson, Steve Slaton, and Frank Gore were the only performers with a season in the top 12 with a starter-quality fantasy QB in the backfield with them. Therefore, only five of the 16 performances in the past three seasons had a top 12 QB performing on the same team with these RBs. The frequency remained in the 30 percent range. If we further expand the sample to include backs that made the top 12 at least once from 2006-2008, then we can include Joseph Addai (Peyton Manning), Ahman Green (Brett Favre), and Willie Parker (Ben Roethlisberger), only nine of the 36 possible performances had a good RB-QB combo on the same team.

This appears to indicate that a No. 1 quality Crank Scoring RB is most often on a team where the quarterback (and arguably the passing game in general) isn't among the 12 best in the NFL. If there is a productive QB in the fold, then RB is generally a big factor in the passing game to qualify. Steven Jackson (90), Ahman Green (46), Brian Westbrook (77,90, and 54), and Joseph Addai (41) all qualify with above average or high reception counts for the years their QB was also a top 12 Crank Scorer. This guideline still applies with the top 24 RBs. Although there is a slightly greater prevalence of RBs on teams with strong QB production, it's not a huge difference from the top 12 or top two.

Timeshares are a significant factor in projections. The backs in a clear-cut, committee situation at the time they were a top 24 Crank RB during this three-season period were Maurice Jones Drew, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Reggie Bush, Willie Parker, and Le'Ron McClain. That's only eight backs accounting for 18 seasons of production in this three-year window. That's 18 seasons out a possible 72 (top 24 backs x three seasons = 72 possible seasons). Only a quarter of the top 24 performances came from true blue committee backs.

So thus far, it appears that the majority of the highest-performing Crank backs play on teams without a highly productive QB and they are considered the load carrier. This is pretty logical stuff because these backs have less competition for their attempts than runners in more balanced or pass heavy offenses or ground-oriented attacks with a rotation of two or three runners.

The third most obvious factor is health. In order to be a consistently high scorer, you have to perform in most of the games during the season. Of the 36 top 12 backs from 2006-2008, there were only three who missed more than two games during the season. If you draft late in the preseason and you know a runner is dealing with a sprained knee, major muscle pull, or moderately limiting ankle injury, think twice before believing you're getting a bargain who will play like a No. 1 RB when they recover. Odds are they won't recover enough in during the season to be more than a fantasy No. 2 RB. This also goes for holdouts (think Ryan Grant) and early season suspensions. These runners will at best perform to the round you drafted them, which won't be round one.

So far, I think we can do a reasonably good job of projecting which runners will play in offenses that do not have committee situations and lack a top-12 quality passing game. What about Parag's suggestion from the Shark Pool? Is there a ratio of yards to touchdowns that would be meaningful? If so, can we identify factors that make this more predictable?

I reviewed the past three years of Crank Scores for RBs and determined the ratio of touches per touchdown and total touches per player for a variety of tiers. Although there definite exceptions to the averages each year just from eyeballing the data, in general you can conclude that the higher the Crank Score, the lower the ratio of scores per touch (attempts + receptions). It's also clear that there is a correlation between a high touch count and high Crank Score.

I believe the data shows that frequent opportunity to touch the ball is the safest indicator for success (I know, mind-blowing, isn't it?). The more the back gets the ball, the more likely he is to be successful. This supports the point that the most desirable runners are most often found in offenses without fantasy starter quality QBs, or significant cogs in passing offenses if they do share the backfield with a quality passer.

When it comes down to it, I believe the place to start when projecting running backs for Crank Score performance is these factors:

• Top 12 Crank RBs are predominantly in offenses without a Top 12 Crank QB.
• Top 24 Crank RBs are more (75% in three season) often the clear-cut starter and not in a committee.
• Less than one third of the backs in three seasons made the top 12 as Crank RBs with a Top 12 Crank QB and they had at least 40 receptions that year.
• The vast majority (33 of 36) of Top 12 Crank RBs from 2006-2008 missed no more than two games.
• The top six Crank RBs averaged no less than 331 touches for a season; the top 12 no less than 310; and the 13th-24th ranked had no less than 231 opportunities.

Right away, I can think of players who could easily qualify as top 12 with these conditions. Frank Gore, Ronnie Brown, and Clinton Portis are all players who are unlikely to split significant time in a committee and have quarterbacks who I have strong doubts about their skill, personnel, or offense to produce as fantasy starters. Maurice Jones Drew, Steven Jackson, and Matt Forte stand out as runners who have QBs with the ability to produce as fantasy starters and have proven they have the receiving skills to catch 40 balls easily. Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner will potentially share the backfield with QBs that have fantasy starter skill, but the offenses are tailored around the running game and they are likely to see a desirable carry count. I do believe Tuner's carries will decrease by design with the emergence of Matt Ryan and Roddy White, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez. Turner will still be a quality starter, but I'm not a believer in him posting two straight seasons of elite production.

This leaves us with four of the top 12 spots open and a number of candidates. Here are some of the players I'm considering for the remaining spots in next week's first crack at Crank projections and brief thoughts about them:

• LaDainian Tomlinson: With Philip Rivers breaking out last year and Darren Sproles developing into a player the Chargers want to get in the lineup whenever possible, LaDainian Tomlinson isn't top 12 material in my eyes.
• Ryan Grant: I was pretty high on Ryan Grant, but this research has put me on the fence because he has a borderline elite QB in the fold. However, he's healthy and with 30 receptions in 2007 despite not being the clear-cut starter that year, I think there's a good chance he could be one of those exceptions because his receiving skills are good enough.
• DeAngelo Williams: Williams may "share time" with Jonathan Stewart, but this is a run-oriented offense and Williams remains the primary ball carrier as long as he's healthy. Stewart is once again dealing with an injury that has limited him this spring.
• Brian Westbrook: His recovery from surgery creates some doubt in my mind that he'll be a force for the first month of the season.
• Knowshon Moreno: Denver traded away their franchise quarterback for a journeyman starter and opting for a quick strike passing game and a grind it out ground game. Moreno has the talent to be the centerpiece of this offense. I doubt Kyle Orton will be a top 12 starter, but how quickly it takes for the rookie RB to earn the feature role is the biggest question.
• Brandon Jacobs: Ahmad Bradshaw, Danny Ware, and Andre Brown are the three backs vying for the two remaining spots in the Giants three-headed committee. Jacobs is clearly the lead dog, but I think New York believes Jacobs isn't capable of carrying the load by himself like an Adrian Peterson or Michael Turner. Jacobs' style is punishing on both himself and opponents and the offense has been successful incorporating a quick-hitting, agile runner like Bradshaw and 'tweener like Derrick Ward. Eli Manning may have lost Plaxico Burress, but he could take another step in his development and Hakeem Nicks has potential to be a more versatile primary receiver very soon. Counting on Jacobs to be a top-12 guy might be a stretch.
• Chris Johnson: It was a great rookie year for the former East Carolina back but as I have mentioned in my rankings, I think his opportunities were the result of a confluence of factors that went right for Tennessee in '08 that I think will be more difficult to achieve in '09 without Albert Haynesworth. For what its worth, Johnson looks like a good prospect to catch 40-plus balls in this offense if OC Mike Heimerdinger comes through with getting Johnson in space more often.

QB Consistency Factors

The next three charts are QB Crank Scores paired with seasonal stats. The last four columns are Total Touchdowns (T TDs), Total Attempts (T Att), Ratio (the number of attempts rushing and passing per touchdown) and Attempts Per Game (Att/G). I did not include the breakdown data of Elite, No. 1, and Subpar performance in this table for QBs, because in reality, you're looking for just one strong starter. You'll learn momentarily that recent history suggests there is an abundance of QBs outside the top 12 that can perform at least half the season like a starting fantasy QB.

2006 QB Crank Scores

2007 QB Crank Scores

2008 QB Crank Scores

Since we've already determined that the majority of the top Crank Score runners lack a starting quality QB, we know that the better performing Crank QBs lack a true bell cow back unless that runner is a frequent target in the passing game. New Orleans, Green Bay, Miami, Kansas City, Arizona, Denver, Dallas and Indianapolis all lacked one consistently high-producing back last year. All of these teams I mentioned had a top-12 Crank Scorer at QB. Because we already measured the corollary of this conclusion with RBs from 2006-2008, we already know that the numbers in 2007 and 2006 for QBs will bear similar fruit.

Health will be an important factor for any position, but it is relatively less critical for QBs. Of the top six Crank-scoring QBs from 2006-2008, only Donovan McNabb in 2006 didn't play all sixteen games (10). However, there were four passers in the top twelve that missed more than three games during this three-year period. Obviously health is important, but considering that the 12th-24th ranked quarterbacks from 2006-2007 performed like No. 1 starters between 40 - 60% of the time, it's generally not as difficult to get quality performances from reserves than other positions.

At the same time, 2008 was a stark contrast from the 2006 - 2007 seasons due to the fact that only three QBs outside the top twelve had games worthy of a No. 1 starter. Nine QBs ranked between 13th and 24th in Crank Score last year had a zero percent No. 1 score, which placed a much higher importance on having a top-12 quality QB in 2008. In contrast, there were six QBs in 2007 and seven QBs in 2008 that had a No. 1 QB percentage over 50. This had to do with greater starter turnover due to health and ineffective play last year than in the previous two seasons.

Another difference between last year and the two years prior is the percentage of time the top three Crank QBs performed like a top-12 fantasy starter. Last year, Phillip Rivers did it 68.75 percent of the time, and Drew Brees and Kurt Warner were at 62.5 percent. From 2006 - 2007, Carson Palmer's 75 percent in 2006 was the lowest and the other five players in that span ranged from 80 - 93.75%. It shows it's reasonable to count on three QBs to have elite-caliber production most years. Once again, this is the value of looking at season stats in three-year increments.

Does opportunity or touchdown proficiency play into what separates a top-tier starter from the rest of the fantasy starters at the position?

*Donovan McNabb missed six games in 2006, lowering the average significantly. He was on pace for 550 touches.

Clearly, the top three QBs from each of the last three seasons had a better rate of touchdowns per touch than the rest of the top 12:

Top Three QBs From Each of The Past Three Seasons

None of these upper echelon performers had a highly consistent feature back other than Donovan McNabb's teammate Brian Westbrook in 2006. Many of these offenses have a balance, however you have to remember that performing within the top 12 of 32 teams in an area is more of a demonstration of excellence, not balance. Very few teams possess excellent statistical outputs both on the ground and in the air.

Back to McNabb's 2006 performance, there's another interesting component that needs to be discussed here. The Eagles QB was the only QB without a top-12 WR and/or upper echelon TE. Although Drew Brees lacked a 1000-yard receiver in 2008, he did have Marques Colston down the stretch of 2008 and the WR had excellent numbers during that period. Lance Moore also posted strong fantasy WR production. Manning, Warner, Brady, and Palmer had at least two high-quality receivers and Romo, Rivers, and Manning had a productive TE and No. 1 quality WR.

This holds true for a majority of the other QBs in the top 12 for the past three seasons. Just as highly productive QBs are less likely to have an equally strong ground attack, they are most likely to have at least two significant producers at the receiver and/or tight end spots. Another obvious statement, however there are several QBs on the low-end or the cusp of a top-12 ranking whose situations match this statement.

If we're going to figure out which of the less obvious players will be in the top 12 in 2009, then I think the factors we mentioned will be helpful towards sorting them out:

• Few top 12 Crank QBs have a feature RB with commensurate production. If they do, that RB is a prominent receiver in the passing game.
• The best Crank QBs have a higher ratio of touchdowns per attempts and generally more attempts per game. However, the difference in attempts is small. These QBs are more efficient.
• The best Crank QBs have at least one WR and/or TE with commensurate production.

Here are some of the QBs I will be considering to fill in the remaining spots of the Top 12 in 2009:

• Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben is a great example of a QB who is difficult to project, because he was in the top 12 in 2006 and 2007 and he has two quality receivers in Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. However, Ward is approaching the point where his decline is imminent, and the team drafted a potential stud runner in Rashard Mendenhall. This is an offense in transition, but has enough veteran leadership to produce. The fact Pittsburgh's offensive identity has rooted in the ground game makes Roethlisberger a risky pick as a No. 1 QB despite his skill.
• Trent Edwards: The Bills QB is a player few fantasy owners appreciate because they haven't seen big things from Edwards and they overlook his development in the way many overlooked Drew Brees. Buffalo has been more of a running team and short passing attack with the occasional big play to deep threat Lee Evans. However, the addition of Terrell Owens and early season suspension of Marshawn Lynch tips the balance of the offense towards the pass. Throw in the offense expanding Edwards' autonomy over the offense and the addition of a two-minute formation that will be used often, and Edwards is more of a risk worth taking.
• David Garrard: The Jags quarterback had a very productive 2007, but his offensive line unraveled in 2008. Now that Garrard has a veteran WR in Torry Holt and a healthy young talent like Mike Walker, Jacksonville could be a surprisingly effective passing offense. Although I expect Maurice Jones Drew to be the centerpiece of the offense, he's a terrific receiver out of the backfield and I expect Garrard-Jones Drew to have a similar dynamic as McNabb-Westbrook had in recent years.
• Matt Ryan: Another player on the proverbial fence between fantasy starter and reserve. The Falcons clearly led with their bruising ground game, however the talk in Atlanta is they wish to limit Michael Turner's carries this year. With the emergence of Roddy White and acquisition of Tony Gonzalez, the organization's actions meet their preseason rhetoric. I think Ryan will perform more efficiently this season, but I'm not counting on him taking a huge step forward with his overall fantasy productivity. If Michael Turner stays healthy enough, Ryan will be a low-end starter at best.
• Jay Cutler: Cutler's talent is obvious, but where's the top-end WR in Chicago? The best receiver is TE Greg Olsen and arguably the second-best hands on the team might belong to RB Matt Forte. I think Cutler is fantasy fool's gold in 2009 because I doubt the consistency will be there without a proven downfield threat who can make the money catches on the tough throws his QB can deliver.
• Jason Campbell: Campbell has a quality TE, a WR capable of No. 1 production, and some young wide outs with potential. However, Clinton Portis has carried this offense. Is this an offense where its identity is transitioning to a more pass heavy attack? I think that's Jim Zorn's goal, but I think he knows he'll have to approach the season relying upon Portis and hope everything else clicks.
• Matt Schaub: Stud WR? Check. Decent TE. Check. Quality No. 2 WR? Check. RB with 50 receptions last season? Check. Matt Schaub has all the factors that you want in a consistently high producer at the QB position, except maybe one: staying healthy.

As I begin thinking about next week's column, it would seem pretty obvious that the top-12 Crank WRs and TEs would be far and away players with a top-12 QB in terms of consistency, right? Stay tuned...