The Weekly Gut Check Vol. 156 - Rookie Impact Series: TE

  Posted 6/7 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Impact Tight Ends

Mike Ditka.

He may be the punch line in a lot of ESPN segments, but the Bears icon is the only name that should pass through your lips when having a discussion about elite rookie performers at the tight end position. For the past five to six years we continue to hear about the great influx of talented receiving tight ends in the NFL. This might be true, but it hasn't registered where fantasy owners need to see it. In this same range of time, the typical cut off fantasy value to reach the Top 12 at the position is around 80 points. The players who met or exceeded this 80-point baseline might surprise you.

If you're looking for tight ends who would have performed within the Top 12 of recent seasons this is pretty close to the definitive list. Three of the 22 were rookies in this new century. It's the same total for the "pass-happy" era of the 1960s (if you're over 55 and live within a couple of hours of Green Bay, Wisconsin), so I wouldn't say the current generation has exactly taken the league by storm.

If you widen the range by 20 points and set the cutoff at 60 fantasy points, then you have 45 total players in the history of the game and you can include five additional tight ends from this era: Randy McMichael (2002), Dustin Keller (2008), Chris Cooley (2004), Owen Daniels (2006), and Zach Miller (2007). At this point, you can say the new millennium has ushered in more tight ends of worth than any other era of the NFL.

If you're looking for a cheap performer who you might get you by while you try to deal for more viable starter in-season, then drafting a rookie tight end late in your redraft is a decent strategy if you like to play with a little more risk because you should be able to find one that can keep from losing games if you build a very strong lineup across the rest of your roster. Sometimes it's better to build a winning team by creating a position of strength and a rookie tight end might be a temporary salve. It's not recommended, but it can be a decent little trick if you feel like you waited too late to draft any tight ends you covet and you hate the idea of passing over a player with good break out potential (Mike Walker, Steve Smith, or Earl Bennett) to ensure you have a "starter" that you know has little upside.

As you can see by the beginning of each paragraph, there are a lot of "ifs" when talking about tight ends in re-drafts, but selecting a rookie tight end in dynasty leagues rings a far more definitive tone because you can afford for these players to taking a couple of seasons to transition into starting quality performers. Whether you're in a situation to take a bigger risk in a redraft or looking for that future dynasty starter, this article should serve you well. I will be basing my impact analysis of these players on the intensive film study I do and where each player landed. For more detailed information on any of these players, I highly recommend two resources: my 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and Draftguys.com. I can personally attest that the information you get from both places is based on film study of the players in action and you'll get accurate depictions of how these prospects played in college. I rank the players by who I think will have the best year, but I will also provide my takes on their career outlook.

Redraft(able)

Jared Cook, Titans

Skills: South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier compared Jared Cook to Calvin Johnson. In terms of his height, size, and vertical leap, Spurrier isn't far off. Cook has excellent hands, too, and he put all of this on display, earning a fair bit of buzz in Titans mini camp. Cook has the ability to be a dangerous slot receiver right away, especially on routes that get him to the perimeter or the back of the end zone where he can use his athleticism to exploit mismatches for big plays.

Obstacles: Bo Scaife has Kerry Collins' and the coaching staff's confidence. Alge Crumpler is a proven veteran who can still block effectively. And 2008 rookie draft pick Craig Stevens is also a good, young run blocker. Jeff Fisher already expects Cook to eventually add more weight to his frame so he can get to a targeted, 260 pounds and become a more effective in-line blocker. As a Gamecock, Cook played in a spread offense where he was placed predominantly in the slot.

Outlook: Cook may not be a full-time player for the Titans as a rookie, but he's a better natural receiver and best downfield threat on the Titans' TE depth chart. He's unique enough as a weapon to see time as a slot receiver and crate mismatches immediately. Mike Heimerdinger demonstrated he could incorporate a rookie like Chris Johnson into the mix with good results and I believe he'll do the same with Cook. The success isn't likely to be on as grand of a scale, but I think Cook is a boom-bust rookie at the TE position that you can afford to entertain in the late rounds of re-drafts. Personally, if I were to wait too late for a decent fantasy TE and I'm faced with the decision to take a tight end with limited upside (Brad Cottam, perhaps?) when I can grab Cook at the end of a redraft because his upside appears much greater, I'd prefer to take the risk. In dynasty leagues, Cook's value is worth a late round two-early round three selection because his physical skill are elite for receiving tight ends and I wouldn't be surprised of he proves to have the best hands on the team within a couple of seasons.

Shawn Nelson, Bills

Skills: Cook has the most upside, but Nelson is in my opinion the player with the greatest potential to be the most productive receiving tight end as a rookie. Cook isn't a great blocker, but does well enough that he should see the field both at the line and split away from it. Nelson runs with good quickness and technique after the catch and he releases pretty well from the line of scrimmage into his routes. This makes Nelson more versatile and easier to incorporate into an offense than Cook, but Cook gets higher marks because I think he could conceivably emerge as the Titans' favorite red zone passing target this year due to his height and the lack of great weapons that pose as much of a mismatch as Cook will.

Obstacles: Cook sometimes allows the ball to get into his body and he'll need to be more consistent using the correct hands technique to avoid dropping easy throws. The Bills have serviceable tight ends that block better and know the playbook and a coach like Dick Jauron won't hesitate to be cautious with Nelson if the rookie shows too many signs of putting his starting quarterback in danger. Even if Nelson earns the starting nod, Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, and Fred Jackson/Dominic Rhodes/Marshawn Lynch will command a lot of targets in the passing game.

Outlook: After Jared Cook, Nelson might have had the best mini camp of the tight ends in this draft class. The reason I think he's a sneaky good pick who could pay huge dividends is the new personnel and offensive scheme in Buffalo. Offensive coordinator Turk Schonert will be giving QB Trent Edwards more opportunities to run the two-minute offense. The hope is to catch the opposing defenses in schemes that present a mismatch with the their two-minute formations. One of the first approaches a defense tries to take against a two-minute offense is to funnel plays to the middle of the field. Trent Edwards has proven to be an efficient quarterback (pre-Adrian Wilson's shot to the head) and will have no qualms checking down to his tight end. Even when the offensive isn't running at the close of each half, Nelson should still see a nice amount of targets if he's earned an opportunity to start. For dynasty leagues, Nelson lacks the same upside but there's not so much of a gap between Cook and Nelson that I wouldn't consider Nelson first if you aren't an owner who feels boom-bust prospects are too risky.

Brandon Pettigrew, Lions

Skills: Pettigrew is arguably the best in-line tight end prospect in this draft. He's a big, strong, and agile player with good hands and he did a very nice job of catching the football in the Oklahoma State offense. He's a load to tackle if he gets down the seam and can drive a defensive end or outside linebacker off the line of scrimmage with his strength and technique. He should be a very effective run blocker on down hill running plays.

Obstacles: Pettigrew lacks great speed and it doesn't appear likely that he'll be able to stretch the seam with the frequency he did in college - which wasn't very often even by college standards. His blocking is supposed to be his strength, but I thought he showed difficulty winning battles on runs designed to the outside. Get Pettigrew moving east west and I think he struggles.

Outlook: The Lions hope to run the ball more down hill, which should help Pettigrew make an immediate impact as a run blocker and short yardage receiver off play action. This is where I believe Pettigrew will thrive the most as an NFL tight end and it demonstrates the Lions new GM and coaching staff made a good choice for with Pettigrew because he fits their scheme. A lot of draft analysts, yours truly included, see Pettigrew as a Bubba Franks-type of player. With the right quarterback, Pettigrew could become and red zone machine but don't expect more than 400-600 yards receiving from him at any point in his career. He's the safest pick of the rookies to see targets, but there is very little upside unless Daunte Culpepper or Matthew Stafford finds a way to make Pettigrew an incredible mismatch in the red zone immediately.

Talent, Opportunity, but...

Travis Beckum, Giants

Skills: The rookie from Wisconsin has a good chance to develop into a dynamic "move" TE in the NFL. He has the speed and physicality after the catch that you want from a seam receiver. A former high school linebacker, his athleticism helps him make plays that belong on highlight packages. Giants observers said he caught everything in sight in mini camp and they have moved him around in the offensive scheme to try him on as their "mismatch" receiver versus specific defensive looks.

Obstacles: Hopefully Beckum continues to catch the ball in pads as well as he does in practice, because one issue he needed to correct in college was his tendency to trap the ball against his body more often than he used his hands. Of greater concern was his tendency to drop passes after contact. He could come up with some spectacular plays, but I saw enough examples of Beckum dropping the ball after getting hit that I'm more keen to pay attention to him in training camp and the preseason for the quality of his hands than now. He also didn't do a great job of using his hands to get free off the line of scrimmage and this will need work. Because the Giants offense will have little continuity at the receiver position from last year, I think Kevin Boss remains the favorite to keep his job.

Outlook: I think Beckum gets a chance to contribute and if he continues to perform well in training camp and the preseason, he could conceivably start, but his timetable for development is realistically longer than a few months. In my opinion, Beckum is a luxury pick in dynasty leagues with upside as good as any player on this list. I think within two seasons, he'll be poised to be a fantasy factor. If you're looking for redraft value, I think he's a player that will get picked late by many owners but finds his way to the waiver wire by mid-to-late September before showing anything worthwhile to add to your team for bye weeks four to six weeks later, at best. The ability is there and he does show he can catch the football with his hands and make the great play, but I'm looking for the tough play, something that he needs to correct his technique to produce. It's the tough plays he'll be faced with making much more often than he did at Wisconsin: getting off the jam on third and short to catch a pass in a tight seam with defenders about to nail him. Diving catches where he looks like an oversized Wes Chandler are pretty, but the Giants need him to be gritty. That might take a bit more time than training camp.

Cornelius Ingram, Eagles

Skills: If you like athletes capable of making things look easy, Ingram is your guy. When at his best, he's up there with Cook and Nelson as downfield threats that can stretch the seam against linebackers and some safeties.

Obstacles: Ingram should be ready to contribute this year after recovering from an ACL tear sustained early in 2008 but monitor his progress because he probably won't be fully recovered until 2010, and make sure he makes it through training camp and the preseason without any setbacks. However, this isn't the only obstacle with Ingram. The most frustrating aspect of Ingram's game is that he doesn't play with the effort that he's capable on a consistent basis. He'll be out to impress this year, but if he thinks he has the job in hand or can slack with the Eagles coaching staff he showed on the field at Florida he will do it. I watched enough games of Ingram's at Florida to see him not run routes at full speed when he thought the ball was going elsewhere and pass up opportunities to block for his teammates. If Ingram plays this way, a player with a work ethic like Brent Celek will have no problem keeping the talented rookie on the bench.

Outlook: The Eagles have been impressed thus far and if Ingram is healthy enough to perform, he will be out to make a good first impression. I think he's a better redraft prospect than a dynasty pick at this point because I don't believe he approaches the game with the work ethic to be the player he's capable. I'll have to hear and see better things before I'm convinced otherwise. I bet he'll be a popular, late-round pick with fantasy owners slapping the guy on the back that picks him this summer. However, if things stand as they did in Gainesville, I'd rather draft him late in a dynasty league, hope he performs in 2009, and trade him by heading into the 2010 season.

Chase Coffman, Bengals

Skills: Put Coffman's hands and attitude in Ingram's body and you'd have a future Hall of Famer. The former Missouri Tiger has a knack for making plays because he does the little things to get open against zone or tight coverage and he has excellent concentration to make difficult receptions that require him to adjust his body or take a hit. He's a tall, lanky player for his position and I think opponents find his athleticism deceiving. He also gutted his way through a season where he was hampered with turf toe and still produced for the Tigers. I think Coffman has the skills and toughness to develop into the quality receiving tight end that has eluded the Bengals since they drafted Carson Palmer.

Obstacles: Coffman isn't very quick or fast and he was used as a slot receiver in Missouri's spread scheme so it's difficult to gauge if he can get off the line of scrimmage when facing some opposition to that goal. His blocking is his greatest weakness. His effort his good, but he needs to learn how to become fundamentally sound. The Bengals offense has been effective in the past without a great receiving tight end because they have had a trio of excellent receivers, and this won't change in 2009 as long as Chad Ochocinco doesn't completely self-destruct. Coffman already has a late start this season because the Bengals asked him to sit out mini camp so his surgically repaired broken foot has sufficient chance to heal.

Outlook: If Coffman can stay healthy, he has a great opportunity to become a Todd Christensen type of player for the Bengals offense. If Todd Christensen was before your time as a fan, he was a reliable, high-reception TE for the Oakland Raiders in the 80s. Coffman will have the benefit of three receivers capable of getting deep against defenders on any play and if used as one of the slot receivers in four-wide sets, Coffman could see a lot of opportunities. The same goes with two-TE sets if the Bengals can establish a consistently strong ground game with Cedric Benson or Bernard Scott. Coffman lacks the superior athleticism of some of his peers, but he's gritty and that's something take over "pretty" when it comes to football.

Talented, Limited Opportunity

James Casey, Texans

Skills: A former minor league baseball player, Casey was a utility player for Rice's spread offense. You could find him in the backfield as a straight ahead, grind-it-out runner; in the slot as a spread formation receiver running intermediate routes against safeties and corners; and as an H-Back/TE hybrid on the line of scrimmage. He's a muscular athlete capable of adding extra weight to be an in-line tight end, but he's also quick and agile enough to get down the seam of a defense in the slot. He's one of the more versatile skill players in this draft because he can produce as a FB, TE, or slot receiver.

Obstacles: Owen Daniels has proven he's pretty good and while he's not as versatile as Casey, he does line up in the Texans backfield on occasion and was an H-back of sorts at Wisconsin. This leaves Casey without a clear shot at starting at a single position unless Daniels. At the same time, Casey could be a surprisingly productive player as the No. 2 TE in multiple-TE formations or the FB while Daniels is on the line of scrimmage. This will help the Texans more than it will fantasy owners during Casey's rookie year. Fellow rookie TE Anthony Hill, a 6-foot-6 260-pound starter at N.C. State, lacks to the speed to be a great seam-stretcher at the position, but he is a better blocker and catches the ball well enough to be a true TE for the Texans.

Outlook: Casey's short-term outlook isn't great for fantasy owners searching for a late-round prospect in redraft leagues unless Owen Daniels gets hurt. A healthy Daniels will relegate Casey to a utility role with a few games of decent production that will prompt some unprofitable waiver wire speculation. Casey makes a very strong dynasty league prospect if you're looking for a TE who could become a Dallas Clark-type of player. Most of the names mentioned above have been drafted above Casey in dynasty leagues. If your rookie draft is approaching, Casey is a nice luxury pick in the mid-rounds if you need a TE of the future.

Davon Drew, Ravens

Skills: Drew was a quarterback when he enrolled at East Carolina University, but made the switch to TE. When I watched him play I thought he was ahead of the game as a developing player at his new position. He demonstrated good hands, the ability to snare the ball away from his body, and the ability to defeat press coverage at the line of scrimmage. Drew is a high-effort player with a playmaker's mentality. He lacks that elite, athletic body you see from prospects like Beckum or Ingram, but he has flashed all the skills to be an all-around TE that can play the run and stretch the seam in the passing game.

Obstacles: When Todd Heap is healthy, he's as good as there is in the NFL. Because of his propensity to get injured, Baltimore acquired free agent L.J. Smith, another quality veteran with decent skills, to serve as the No. 2 on the depth chart. Of course, that means there is always a chance Drew could see the field earlier than the Ravens desire because neither Heap nor Smith are the epitome of durability. Quinn Sypniewski, Edgard Jones, and Isaac Smolko are one-dimensional in their skill sets but one of them might do well enough in camp force Drew onto the practice squad - if a team doesn't snatch him up after the cuts.

Outlook: Drew is the guy few people have heard about when this rookie class of TEs is profiled, but he has the potential to be a quality starter for several years in this offense and a good fantasy performer. There are a lot of fantasy owners who like Zach Miller or John Carlson's potential and I think Davon Drew could be every bit as good, if not eventually better than these two. His redraft potential could skyrocket if Heap and Smith pull up lame (again) and a young quarterback like Joe Flacco could develop rapport with him quickly. It's more likely fantasy owners will find Drew to be a nice, late-round dynasty prospect worth carrying on a deep roster for a couple of seasons until he gets a true shot to contribute.

Dan Gronkowski, Lions

Skills: The University of Maryland starter has the look of a 10-year player in the NFL. At 6-foot-6, 255 pounds, the Lions rookie was drafted after Detroit selected blue chip prospect, Brandon Pettigrew, but don't count out Gronkowski as a future contributor who outperform Pettigrew if the first-day pick doesn't work hard. Gronkowski has soft hands, catches the ball well with his back to the football, and he's a good run blocker with a high-effort game.

Obstacles: Brandon Pettigrew is the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 TE within the next 12 months and veterans Casey Fitzsimmons and Will Heller are capable backups. Gronkowski will have a fight on his hands to even make the practice squad.

Outlook: It's possible the best thing that can happen for Gronkowski if Pettigrew nails down the job is for the rookie from Maryland to get cut and picked up by another team. I think Gronkowski and Davon Drew are evenly rated, but Drew is the more dynamic receiver downfield and Gronkowski is the better blocker. Get this rookie on a team like the Cleveland Browns and he's easily the No. 2 TE, beating out a less versatile Martin Rucker, and within another year, taking the job from veteran Robert Royal. Unlike Drew, Gronkowski isn't even worth a late draft pick in dynasty leagues unless something happens to Pettigrew this summer. I think it's likely that Gronkowski will be one of those players who gets a shot two or three years from now and will be on most waiver wires until that time.

Fantasy Free Agents Who Could Produce If Called Upon

Cameron Morrah, Seahawks

Skills: At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, Morrah has the athleticism to be a decent NFL receiver at the tight end position. He catches the ball with his hands, flashes ability to defeat press coverage, and get separation downfield.

Obstacles: I believe Morrah declared for the draft a year too early because he lacks the consistency with all the attributes I listed as skills. Another year of work on his hands, routes, and separation from the line of scrimmage could have made him a first-day prospect in 2010's NFL Draft. Now he's at best a No. 2 TE behind John Carlson and could easily be beat out by veteran John Owens if he doesn't push himself.

Outlook: With hard work, Morrah could become a quality contributor in a few years. Right now, he'll only see an opportunity if John Carlson gets hurt. Even then, I would expect Seattle to acquire a veteran to use ahead of Morrah until the rookie can learn the ropes.

Anthony Hill, Texans

Skills: One of my favorites in this TE class because he's a less heralded version of Brandon Pettigrew. Hill is a big target (6-foot-6, 265 pounds) with good hands and he can block very well. He moves fluidly for a man of his size and I think he could develop into a strong No. 2 TE in most offenses with potential to earn opportunities in the passing game.

Obstacles: Hill lacks great speed and I don't think he'll ever be a consistent performer for fantasy leagues. He also sits behind Owen Daniels and James Casey on the Texans depth chart.

Outlook: I think short-term Hill will be the No. 2 blocking TE and the No. 3 receiving TE in this offense if he makes the team at all. If not, I expect him to land on a team with the desire to build a strong run game. Because he's a more fluid receiver than people would expect, I do think there is an outside chance he could win a starting job for a season if his team suddenly needs him in that role. His upside to stick with a team is high, but to produce for fantasy owners isn't as strong.

Darius Hill, Bengals

Skills: From strictly the standpoint of fantasy upside as a receiver, Hill might be better than James Casey who is several spots higher on this list. He's a smart player who can use his hands well against press coverage, and he uses his 6-foot-6 frame to his advantage on the perimeter. He catches the ball like a solid WR prospect.

Obstacles: Hill is a skinny, 236 pounds and he lacks the speed you'd hope to see from a player of his dimensions. If he could run within the ballpark of Jared Cook, he'd be a top-five prospect in this class. He'll need to add weight without losing any of his speed or quickness to have a chance contribute. Right now, he's stuck behind Chase Coffman, Reggie Kelly, Ben Utecht, and possibly Matt Sherry. He'll need to have a great camp to make this roster. Even if he does, this isn't an offense that throws the ball much to the TE.

Outlook: I doubt Hill makes the team, but I wouldn't be surprised if this tall, thin TE finds his way to a team like Indianapolis who seems to be successful using players of Hill's makeup. I think we'll hear more from him in the future, but he'll not be a likely fantasy prospect in the short term.

Bear Pascoe, 49ers

Skills: Pascoe is a physical player with some skills as a receiver over the middle. He makes a good short-range weapon as a receiver.

Obstacles: He lacks NFL quality speed and he needs to learn better run-blocking techniques.

Outlook: At best, he's the third TE behind Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker. He could develop into a short yardage or red zone option in a few years, but I don't think it happens with San Francisco unless one of the first two players moves to greener pastures.