The Gut Check Vol. 154 - Rookie Impact Series: RB

  Posted 5/29 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Impact Running Backs

My colleague Chase Stuart is right: only once in recent history have the two top backs in the draft produced Top 12 fantasy numbers in their rookie year. Not that Stuart is a proponent of such a ridiculous perspective I'm about to state, but if you play in a league with a one-RB starting lineup and believe the best rookies are determined by their NFL draft order, then you better sit down and reserve some reading time. In traditional two-RB lineups or leagues that allow a third flex option; having good information on rookie running backs cannot be underestimated.

The proof is in the fantasy rankings from 1999-2008:

Rookies account for a significant percentage of starting quality production at RB in most redraft leagues every year, especially backs that have production ranking them among the Top 13 to 36 at the position. The problem for bean counters is the difficulty justifying a preseason projection of a rookie to produce Top 5, Top 12, or even a Top 20 performance. The reason is as Stuart mentioned; the Top drafted backs aren't typically the ones with the best rookie seasons. This has to do with the fact that many rookies who do produce aren't expected to begin the season as starters, if expected to contribute at all.

But in order to have a strong draft beyond the opening rounds, it benefits you to learn about the rookie runners. If you wait for them on the waiver wire, you greatly diminish your chances to acquire a good fantasy contributor. Just like some of you reading this, I have experienced success because I understood the talent of an Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, or Maurice Jones Drew and drafted them at the appropriate time. When you consider names like Mike Bell, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Samkon Gado, Dominic Rhodes, and Domanick Williams are among these rookies, it's apparent that knowing the late round picks and the undrafted free agents also comes in handy.

I will be basing my impact analysis of these players on the intensive film study I do and which team signed the player. For more detailed information on any of these players, I highly recommend two resources: my 2009 Rookie Scouting Portfolio and Draftguys.com. I can personally attest that the information you get from both places is based on film study of the players in action and you'll get accurate depictions of how these prospects played in college. Forgive my actor references, movies are on my mind lately.

Starring Roles

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos

• Skills: The Broncos first round pick is the most NFL-ready back in this class. He is as versatile player as Don Cheadle is an actor, and it is this ability to do many things well that made him the first back chosen. Moreno catches the ball well with his hands on more routes than simple screens and outlet passes. Other than Chris Obgonnaya of Texas - Moreno was the one runner who consistently caught the ball on routes thrown downfield and in tight coverage. He's also a physical blocker who has good recognition skills in pass protection and this will get him on the field early in his career. What Moreno does best is run the football between the tackles. His vision is among the best I have seen from a back in the past five years that I have been conducting film study. I believe you can classify vision into three broad components for a runner: seeing, anticipating, and deciding. There are several talented runners who see openings 90 degrees to either side of the direction they are running, but they can't anticipate where a hole will open or how to set up big plays by thinking a move ahead of what they are doing. Sometimes they can't even decide which is the best option to choose when there are two gaping holes. Moreno has no such problems. He is a patient runner who will follow his blocks and wait for the lanes to open as designed, but he will also exploit creases that are too good to ignore. Better yet, he sees the field and understands angles well enough to make moves to set up openings a lot of backs don't see. He's not the fastest back, but his vision and quickness make him a lot faster on the field than a simple stopwatch measurement - think of one of the rebels in The Matrix and you have an idea of his skill avoiding hits in tight spaces. He reminds people of Cadillac Williams and Clinton Portis, but Moreno lacks their long speed. When you combine Moreno's level of vision with his balance and agility, you get a player a lot like a Curtis Martin, Edgerrin James, or Emmitt Smith.
• Obstacles: Moreno is far more talented than any back on the Broncos roster save Lamont Jordan, who lacks the durability to pose a significant challenge long-term. The rookie should be good for 800-900 yards with even a poor offense around him, because he should earn 225-250 attempts as a rookie. Denver has a decent offensive line, but it is the passing game that is the question mark after the Cutler trade and the addition of head coach Josh McDaniels and QB Kyle Orton. One of the pitfalls of a short passing offense is defenses will have more players near the line of scrimmage to handle the run if there aren't enough successful downfield passing plays. As it is, Moreno is more of a chain mover than a break away back unless he's already in space.
• Outlook: If the offense suffers greatly in the transition to a new quarterback and scheme, Moreno's production will be at the low end of 800-900 yards. If Denver can be efficient with their deep passing game, I think Moreno is far more likely to exceed 1200 yards on the ground and add another 250-300 as a receiver because he will earn closer to 250-300 attempts. Moreno is a good red zone option, but the much-publicized scoring ills of the Broncos in 2008 have to do with line play as much as their runners. I expect Moreno to have more success, but I wouldn't go overboard on projected touchdowns unless McDaniels' scheme and quarterback proves it can stretch the field. Long-term, Moreno has the skills to be a perennial Top 12 fantasy performer.

Donald Brown, Colts

• Skills: One of the best athletes in this class of backs, Donald Brown's running style is best-described as "fluid." He's a smooth, quick runner like Matt Forte was at Tulane. And like Forte, Brown played on a team (UConn) that lived and died by his productivity. He's very adept at making that cut in the hole to get into the secondary and he picks and slides easily to openings he spots at the line of scrimmage. Although not a power back, Brown has quite a reputation for a nasty stiff arm and finishes his runs with good pad level to get those extra one to two yards that often move the chains. UConn didn't have much of a passing offense, but Colts GM Bill Polian doesn't draft runners who are liabilities as receivers. One of those draft picks from long ago was Thurman Thomas, who I think Brown is a lot like stylistically. My esteemed colleague, Cecil Lammey isn't as bullish on Brown as I, but I think Brown is like Jackie Chan: nice guy, soft-spoken, but you'd never expect him to be as dynamic as he is and you still can't believe it when you first see it.
• Obstacles: Although I think he has the vision and quickness to be a fine short yardage back, he's not a power back. He'll need to develop the short yardage skills fans saw from compact, physical players like Priest Holmes and Thurman Thomas. I think is entirely possible for Brown to do, but the jury is out if he will be effective immediately at this aspect of the NFL game. When healthy, Joseph Addai has proven he can be a productive NFL starter. Brown won't win the starting job without a battle and count on that duel to extend well into the season. The reason is Addai's pass blocking something Brown needs work to improve. His efforts in college were more tentative against athletic linebackers and defensive ends.
• Outlook: If Brown wins the job from Addai, or is the default starter due to injury, his fantasy upside as a rookie is higher than any back in this class because of the Colts' excellent passing offense. Otherwise, Brown should still get 12-15 touches per game as part of an RBBC with Addai because he has more big-play ability. Moreno is a more talented back, but Brown is a great consolation prize if you're looking for a potential rookie impact player. At best, Brown becomes the second-half workhorse and one of the hottest fantasy backs down the stretch of 2009. At worse, Brown is a decent bye week option or flex-back in fantasy leagues that have one. Dynasty leaguers fortunate enough to acquire Brown should expect a future big-play artist with open lanes to run thanks to Peyton Manning. He should establish himself as the clear-cut starter by year two.

Chris Wells, Cardinals

• Skills: Physically, Wells is the most talented runner in this class because of his size-speed-balance combo. He's strong enough to wear down a defense and fast enough to score from 30-40 yards away on a well-blocked play. Sometimes he will run with a recklessness that can leave the casual observer with the impression that Wells is a potentially great player with game-changing ability. Although there have been moments where breaks the big play, what I like about Wells most is that he is very patient setting up blocks. He'll take what a defense gives him rather than try something superhuman. When healthy, he's a runner that will grind up a defense and spit them out in the fourth quarter.
• Obstacles: A lot of people say he reminds them of Adrian Peterson because of those big-play moments I mentioned, but they are using the kind of glasses belong on bar counters and not on the bridge of the nose. Wells is capable of making that 'wow' play when the offensive line blocks to perfection, but he lacks the "extras" that Peterson has like elite agility and elite balance. His skills at freelancing when the blocking scheme is neutralized aren't that great, either. Throw in the durability concerns with his foot and Wells is a lot like that muscle car sitting in your pal's garage: the results might not match the promise and the owner fell in love with it too fast. Get Wells moving east west, and like many runners, he's a more like that 97-lb. weakling in the old Charles Atlas advertisements. Don't expect him to make players miss when defenses meet him in the backfield. Arizona may have a head coach who wants to run the ball, but they have an offense made for passing. Tim Hightower lacks Wells Top shelf physical talent, but it's likely he'll split time with Wells to begin the year.
• Outlook: If a runner of Edgerrin James' savvy can't get the job done in Arizona, I'm not holding my breath that Wells will do much better as a rookie unless they switch back to a gap style blocking scheme and can successfully open huge holes with it. James might have been past his prime, but Wells will need a line that opens holes to show anything like he did at Ohio State and the zone blocking scheme relies upon players with great vision and quickness. He's not as shifty as James and lacks the same Top end vision. He's likely to get enough carries to consider him in re-drafts as a No. 3-No. 4 RB, but something will need to click for that Cardinals offensive line to see Wells flash those skills that got him drafted as a first round pick. If Wells stays healthy and plays like he showed he's capable against Texas, he could be the most productive rookie back, but he's not as creative as the two backs ranked above him and the Cardinals line is a weak run unit. I'm not as bullish on Wells long-term prospects in Arizona because it shouldn't take this long for an organization to develop a better ground game when there has been focus on the offensive line and they brought in a coach with the pedigree to improve the run. I'm worried Wells will have a career like Mickey Rourke's, sans the late comeback: lot's of promise early, but self-destructs before he achieves what he should.

Supporting Roles

LeSean McCoy, Eagles

• Skills: In Knowshon Moreno's profile, I talked about vision. In one sense of the word, LeSean McCoy has excellent vision; he sees creases open better than any back in this draft. He's a highly instinctive runner with excellent shiftiness. He's capable of bouncing a run outside in unlikely situations and he can terrorize a defense in the open field. He's quicker than fast and a solid receiver.
• Obstacles: Although McCoy sees openings and has the instincts to make quick decisions on obvious creases that are difficult for others to reach, he often makes poor choices on holes where it would be better for him to take what the defense originally gave him. Players like McCoy are flashy and catch the eyes and hearts of fantasy owners because of their ability to make high difficulty plays. The problem is backs like McCoy take too many risks. Laurence Maroney and Jamaal Charles are to talented backs with this kind of skill, but have to prove they can make the small plays that move the chains. McCoy has this same natural boom-bust factor to his game. If he chooses to freelance and risk the outcome of drives, McCoy will limit his future opportunities. He also has the frame to add more muscle to his core and become more powerful and explosive. He will need this additional muscle to become a feature back in the NFL and not wear down during the season. What he really needs to work on, according to Andy Reid is his pass blocking. This will be the critical component for McCoy to see more than just a few predictable carries in relief of Westbrook.
• Outlook: McCoy is like the roles Tom Cruise played in the 80s: a precocious talent, not quite ready for prime time, but he has moments that take your breath away with his skills. We're just talking about a runner and not a linebacker, fighter pilot, or bartender/entrepreneur. McCoy is in a perfect situation behind Brian Westbrook and he should get a chance to contribute in situations where the Eagles can ease him into the offense at a pace they determine is best for his development. If Westbrook stays healthy this plan can be executed to perfection and McCoy will tantalize fantasy owners with big plays. His deficiencies will be more apparent if Westbrook misses significant time and McCoy is the default starter. He's a sexy dynasty pick because of his immense upside, his potential fit with the Eagles offense, and the fact Philly sees him as the heir apparent to Westbrook within a few seasons. The outlook for McCoy in re-drafts is as a valuable handcuff to Westbrook and possibly a bye-week option if Philly decides to use him in the backfield with Westbrook in the slot. Keep tabs on what Philly beat writers are reporting at practice about this possibility, but the true indicator this will be a regular thing will come within the first month of the season.

Shonn Greene, Jets

• Skills: When I saw Greene in that black and gold, Iowa uniform, I couldn't help imagine a more athletic-looking Jerome Bettis. Greene has very good footwork, patience, and he's a strong finisher who will get those yards after contact that will wear out a defense in the second half. If you're going to hit Greene, you better aim low because he's strong and built low to the ground. In this sense he's like two former Chargers: Gary Brown and Michael Turner. He's among the best power runners in this class.
• Obstacles: The only reason Greene is behind McCoy in terms of short-term impact is his pass blocking and receiving. At Iowa, Greene tended to round off routes and one week he'd catch the ball easily, but fight it the next. He showed the latter early at Jets mini camp and elicited a quip to the media about it from Rex Ryan. One thing unequivocally bad about Greene's game is his pass blocking. He made the effort, but consistently misdiagnosed the angle to take defenders coming off the edge. He also doesn't understand how to sustain blocks if he does take the correct angle and makes contact. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are quality backs with more versatility at this point in their careers.
• Outlook: Like Bernie Mac who was great when used as a supporting actor as part of a comedy duo but never really carried a good movie on his own, Greene doesn't have that kind of elite talent. If Greene had third down skills, the Jets could take a much harder line with Jones and Washington's contract issues. The rookie has the skills as a runner to be a 1200-yard back behind this offensive line, but with the Jets' youthful passing game I expect Greene to be a situational back in 2009. If he picks things up quickly, Greene could be a two-down back who alternates series with Thomas Jones. The worst-case scenario for Greene is short yardage opportunities. I believe Greene's dynasty value is safer than McCoy's because he's such a good inside runner. It's conceivable Greene and Washington are the future 1-2 punch in New York and in an RBBC such as this one, Greene could be a 1200-yard 10-score runner for a few years.

Glenn Coffee, 49ers

• Skills: Let's run through the list. Speed? Good. Quickness? Good. Pad level? Good. Pass blocking? Good. Receiving? Good. If the 49ers were looking for a "good" depth chart player to play behind Frank Gore they found one.
• Obstacles: Coffee benefited from a mammoth, Crimson Tide offensive line that often gored opposing defensive fronts. When he needed to get yardage on his own, he couldn't do it like the better backs that make it in the NFL. While he is capable of getting yardage after contact, he's a narrow-hipped runner who gets that extra yard or two because he'll keep his pads low and legs moving, but he doesn't break tackles with great balance or strength. Because he lacks Chris Johnson-like speed and agility, he doesn't have any physical skills to compensate for his deficiencies. But he is a high effort player who dies hard and that will make him a valued contributor.
• Outlook: Coffee is one of those backs that, up to a point, will play as well as his surrounding talent. If the 49ers develop a dynamic offense, he'll have games where he might look like a future starter. If the talent around him struggles, he won't carry the team on his shoulders. I think he'll be one of those Pierre Thomas-type of runners: Good enough for spot duty, but questionable whether he can carry the load for any length of time on his own and be a weapon defenses fear. His immediate opportunity to back up Frank Gore puts him ahead of the backs in the section below when it comes to redraft leagues, but I wouldn't select him until the very end of a draft. In dynasty leagues, I'd drop him below all of the backs I have listed in the next section because I don't believe his upside is there. He's like Casey Affleck: Good, but not great. Heck, he may even be a little better than good, but he's not going to be a guy you want carrying the show except in really specific situations. It's the same with Coffee. Personally, I'll pass on him until the mini camp drooling subsides and we see similar results in pads.

Cameo Appearances

Cedric Peerman, Ravens

• Skills: The fastest-timed back at the combine, Peerman explodes out of his cuts and has the burst to get to the corner against fast college defenses. Although Donald Brown is touted to have a great stiff arm, Virginia Tech's esteemed defensive coordinator Bud Foster said Peerman's was "the best in the business." Based on what I saw against defensive ends, linebackers, and cornerbacks when running to the edge, I wholeheartedly agree. What really impresses me is the sharpness of his cuts and his ability to finish runs. His dimensions are nearly identical to 49ers workhorse Frank Gore and his skills very similar.
• Obstacles: Peerman's production is unproven compared to his draft class colleagues, but he did lead the ACC in rushing prior to his Lis Franc injury as a junior. Because this injury can end a player's career, NFL teams were wary about picking him early despite the fact he played well as a senior. The most confusing piece of analysis I encountered with Peerman - besides the fact many analysts labeled him as slow in their pre-combine write ups (Advice to the reader: if a back doesn't break away or get the corner cleanly against an ACC team like Miami or Va. Tech, he's not automatically slow - the defense might be really fast compared to his team's offensive line) - they said he had issues protecting the football. Guess how many fumbles Peerman had in his college career? One - in 444 attempts! Yes, he had one at the Senior Bowl, but I'll take the 443 attempts without a turnover as a better judge. The real obstacles aren't skill related; it's his competition in Baltimore. Ray Rice is an excellent young back. He's not as quick as Peerman, but he's a tough runner with good vision that understands how to maximize his gains after contact. Willis McGahee is a versatile back with enough experience to get the job done. When he's motivated, he's very good. The problem is he seems to need outside motivation that backs like Rice and Peerman won't. Still, Peerman is at best the No. 3 RB on the depth chart heading into training camp.
• Outlook: Cedric Peerman is like the George Clooney of running backs. Way back when Clooney started his career, he was the nephew of your great aunt's favorite female big band singer. All he seemed to have going for him was his last name, big hair, and bit part in an episode of The Golden Girls probably because Betty White wanted some eye candy (I know, the thought makes my spine crawl, too...). Once Clooney got a break into movies he was sneaky good with flicks like The Peacemaker and Out of Sight where he could be cool, hip, and clever. Next thing you know, he's got a range you'd never guess until you see Oh Brother Where Art Thou?, Good Night, and Good Luck, or Syriana. Not that he's the greatest actor you'll ever see, but he certainly knows how to make the most of his opportunities. I think Cedric Peerman's career will take a similar trajectory. Some folks said he wasn't fast enough and he proceeds to post the best combine time in the 40. Others say he has fumbling issues, but he only had on in 444 attempts. They say he has durability concerns, but he didn't have a major injury last year after coming back from a long rehab. When you combine talent, character, and effort, the only back I'd consider after Knowshon Moreno and before Peerman is possibly Donald Brown and I'm not certain I'd pull the trigger. That makes Peerman a great bargain in dynasty leagues where you are drafting against Footballguys.com members who read the Rookie Scouting Portfolio or this column. I was high on Ray Rice in 2008, but I think Peerman has the skills to fight his way into an RBBC with Rice by 2010, especially if Le'Ron McClain remains at fullback. Peerman is strictly a waiver wire option at this point in redraft leagues but if McGahee or Rice get nicked in the preseason, he's worth a very late draft pick.

Bernard Scott, Bengals

• Skills: Scott's vision, quickness, and agility make him a back that is hard to ignore when you see him put these skills on display. He's also a good receiver and when you get him into the open field, he'll make any defense nervous. He's a highly instinctive back along the lines of Clinton Portis. He's not as tough of a runner, but neither was Portis early in his career. Scott is just as likely to squirt through a small crease between the tackles for a first down, as he is to bounce a run outside.
• Obstacles: The reason you haven't heard much about Scott outside of Draftguys.com is that he's bounced around to multiple schools due to several off-field incidents. Maturity has not been Scott's strong point. The talk is that Scott has made significant strides to mature in the past year, but we'll see once he gets a little taste of the big-time. He's on an organization that has proven they will take risks on players with immense talent and immaturity, but they've also been burned several times. But it's his on-field performance that will be the first thing we'll have to see - can Scott be as dynamic as he was in the lower divisions of college football?
• Outlook: If Scott answers all the doubts, he's in a great situation to be a surprise starter by the end of September. Cedric Benson had some nice moments down the stretch, and if he's ready to dedicate himself to fulfilling his immense potential, Scott will be a third down back, at best. Even so, he'll need to outperform Rutgers hybrid back, Brian Leonard who is an excellent short yardage runner and receiver when healthy. Scott is a real boom-bust pick if you're thinking about him for a redraft league - kind of like Robert Downey, Jr. early in his career; equal parts talent for performing and self-destructing. Scott is a much more reasonable pick in dynasty leagues where you can get him in the mid-to-late rounds, sit on him for a year or two, and see if he's grown up enough tap his potential.

Rashad Jennings, Jaguars

• Skills: Jennings is a small school player who transferred from Pittsburgh. The fact he was smart enough to leave Dave Wannstedt's program early should earn him points from fantasy owners immediately. Kind of like Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's impeccable timing to get away from professional wrestling before any chance he of success in Hollywood got ruined by an extreme barbed wire for his former employer. Wanny and pro wrestling jokes aside, what you should know about Jennings is that he's a bigger back with finesse Skills: agility, burst, and he catches the football well. I compare him in varying degrees to players like Shaun Alexander and Ronnie Brown. The reasons Jennings transferred had to do with being closer to his family when his father was diagnosed with diabetes. If he stayed at Pittsburgh I wouldn't be at all surprised if McCoy reconsidered his decision to leave early.
• Obstacles: One of the more evident issues with his running style is how he finishes runs against contact. Much like Darren McFadden, he's a waist-bender when lowering his pads. This is important because most good finishers bend their knees to generate power and leverage when they lower their pads into a collision. Bending at the waist can limit the runner's ability to use his strength to gain extra yards because they are more prone to getting stood up at the collision. He also tends to carry the ball too far from his body and in the NFL that could keep him at the bottom of the depth chart if he fumbles the ball. Jennings will begin this training camp competing with former USC back Chauncey Washington for the No. 3 job. He'll need to push No. 2 back Greg Jones if he wants a chance to see more than a couple f carries per game.
• Outlook: I'll start with this quote from beat writer Vic Ketchman after he watched mini camp:

  Seventh-round running back Rashad Jennings was that player on offense. Jennings flashed speed, quickness and pass-catching ability you usually don't see in a player his size. He also displayed an element of poise and comfort you don't often see in a player from a lower-division school in his rookie minicamp. Jennings was sensational. He especially caught everyone's attention on Sunday morning with a darting run up the middle that froze defenders."

  This is the time when guys are playing in their underwear and that diminishes the value of this observation until we see some action with live bullets, so it's still time to watch and wait. That said, I think Chauncey Washington is likely to be looking for another team by the end of training camp and Greg Jones' chances of maintaining a hold on his No. 2 spot is 50-50 with Jennings in the fold. Jones was once the Top rated RB prospect by the Blesto Scouting service, which is now located in Jacksonville, Fla. This was before the FSU star tore his ACL. Since that time, he hasn't been the same runner. If Jones were going to regain his pre-injury form, it would have happened earlier in his pro career. I think Jennings makes a good dynasty handcuff to Maurice Jones Drew and like Peerman in Baltimore, a guy to monitor his training camp to determine whether he's a late pick or waiver wire option for 2009 re-drafts.

James Davis, Browns

• Skills: Here's another back I'd take over Glen Coffee. The Clemson runner had a terrific freshman year, but the turmoil around Greenville, South Carolina impacted the overall play of the Tigers in the past couple of seasons. Davis reminds me a lot of Stephen Davis. He's not very fast, but he is a very skilled between the tackles runner who has patience, balance, and strength. Like a Stephen Davis or Rudi Johnson, he's a smart back who can wear down a defense when running behind a quality offensive line - something the Browns organization is trying to do through draft. He's the type of team player who will endear him self to Browns fans. The Hollywood equivalent would be actor Scott Glenn. If there's an actor who quietly "moves the chains" from scene to scene it's a guy like Glenn who had solid roles such as the ensemble pieces Silverado and The Right Stuff, and had a strong supporting presence in Training Day and Absolute Power.
• Obstacles: Davis is not a breakaway threat and he lacks great lateral agility. He'll likely sit behind Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison for at least this year. If he does find his way onto the field sooner, the Browns offense is still in flux and that doesn't bode well for his short-term productivity.
• Outlook: James Davis went to Douglass High School in Atlanta Georgia; the same school as Jamal Lewis. In fact, Davis has known Lewis for some time and Cleveland's acquisition continues the mentor-mentee relationship between David and Lewis. Davis will never have Lewis' elite speed and agility, but the rookie is good enough to be a solid fantasy starter long-term if the Browns offense develops some consistency. A solid training camp should put him behind Jerome Harrison on the depth chart and earn him a few situational carries on a weekly basis. If Lewis gets hurt, Davis has a real opportunity to be a two-down back or a change of pace to Harrison in '09. He's a premium waiver wire option in redraft leagues if he plays how he's capable.

Andre Brown, Giants

• Skills: Brown probably has more upside than Davis, but I think he's also a boom-bust prospect. The appeal is his size, power, and footwork. Much like Shonn Greene, Andre Brown can move effectively between the tackles to find an opening at the line of scrimmage or make cuts in the hole that help him elude the linebacker or safety at the second level of the defense. It's impressive for a runner of his size to make effective stutter steps and spin moves - he runs with a wiggle. His greatest strength is his power after contact and when he builds momentum on a run, he's clearly no easy takedown for a defender.
• Obstacles: Brown has good, timed speed, but I didn't see him display this kind of burst in games. One of the reasons might be that he's broken the same foot twice in two years. This may have also impacted his ability to make lateral cuts, although I think this has more to do with his size and style of running than his foot injury. This will be something to watch in the preseason, because if he displays sharp lateral cuts in game situations and some long speed, move him up your list. He's like comedian Chris Rock, you watch his standup and think he could be a real star, but he hasn't been able to do it. It could be the role, but it could also be him. To me, Brown shows flashes that make you think he has something, but there are still things that he needs to fix. One of them is his pad level; he runs too high at times and despite the fact he will cover the ball with both arms it won't matter much of two or three defenders can keep him upright and go after the ball. Physically, Brown might be a more desirable runner for the Giants to covet over Ahmad Bradshaw, but the third-year runner out of Marshall has excellent vision, agility, and enough speed to break big runs. It will be a challenge for Brown to become the clear-cut No. 2 RB on the depth chart. Danny Ware isn't as instinctive, but he's an athletic talent who has steadily developed into a player the Giants want to consider. If Brown loses his confidence at all in training camp, he could have a difficult time beating Ware, too.
• Outlook: Long-term, Brown reminds me a lot of former Brown and Viking back Leroy Hoard. The Giants are fortunate to land a back with his kind of upside to join their three-back rotation, especially with a big back like Jacobs who I believe is more prone to injury due to his size and running style. If your dynasty draft occurs later in the preseason or you're looking for a potential gem in the late rounds of your redraft, pay attention to his lateral agility and speed. If it looks good, move him up your rookie rankings. If it doesn't stand out, he's a mid-to-late round dynasty pick and a waiver wire option for re-drafts.

Javon Ringer, Titans

• Skills: Ringer is a tough back who will pound it between the tackles and he understands how to get maximize the yardage available in traffic. He's a very effective north-south, one-cut, downhill runner and he understands how to use his diminutive size to his advantage in short yardage. He catches the ball with his hands and I think he can develop into an effective receiver out of the backfield with more reps.
• Obstacles: While I think he belongs on an NFL roster, I'm not sold on him as a future starter. Ringer had to frequently gear down to make sharp cuts that you will see better prospects consistently make without losing speed or taking extra steps. I didn't see Ringer run through tackles against more athletic defenses, either. These two issues will be difficult for him to correct. What he can improve upon is his tendency to carry the ball too far from his body and his impatience on runs to the outside - he often outran his blocks and didn't maximize his potential gains on these designed plays. If he displays more speed and agility than he did in college, I would bump him up at least a few spots because he's an intuitive runner between the tackles and combining that skill with hitting the hole hard could make him a viable No. 2 back.
• Outlook: Javon Ringer is like Steve Buscemi: some people love his work and he always has small moments in films that are impressive, but he lacks that charisma to carry a Hollywood movie. Put him in an independent film as the lead and he's great, but Hollywood has certain physical requirements for a leading man. I think Javon Ringer is that kind of football player: brief moments, but don't expect him to do more. He'd be a stud in the CFL, but I don't think his skills are NFL-starter caliber. Chris Johnson's job is clearly safe for as long as he stays healthy and frankly, I think he has no chance to overtake a (finally) motivated LenDale White. An in-shape White will be more effective than Ringer, unless the rookie displays more quickness and agility than he did in college. White should have no problem earning the No. 3 spot on the depth chart and if something happens to either player ahead of him, he'll do a workmanlike job. He's worthy of a late-round pick in dynasty leagues and someone redraft leaguers should know about for the waiver wire.

Screen Tests For Bit Parts

Mike Goodson, Panthers

• Skills: If Goodson took the trajectory most expected from him after his impressive freshman season at Texas A&M, he would have been one of the top four backs in this class. He's a quick, shifty, and agile back who can make the first player miss and has enough strength to gain extra yards after contact. He has a talent for maintaining enough distance between himself and an oncoming hitter to prolong the impending wrap-up. He's a good receiver out of the backfield who catches the ball with his hands. If he plays up to his potential, the Carolina Panthers have the best three backs in the NFL and all three have enough raw talent to start and produce for any team in the league.
• Obstacles: Goodson frustrated two different coaches at Texas A&M. As a runner with breakaway speed and enough moves to set up players a step ahead of what he's currently doing with the ball in his hand, he needs to develop a stiff arm. He could be a better finisher, because he shows good leg drive and strength but he doesn't have good pad level. He was rarely used as a blocker and he'll need to work on this aspect of the game to get a chance to see time in this offense.
• Outlook: Based solely on instincts, I'd take Goodson over Beanie Wells and LeSean McCoy but based on where I do have him on this list of backs you can see I place a great deal of value on other factors such as work ethic and technique. The only way Goodson sees time in the Panthers backfield is if there's an injury to their two studs. At the same time, Goodson is in a good situation to learn from two players who had no problem working together to make each other better. If the rookie comes into camp with the right approach, he could eventually become a nice committee back who eventually earns a starting spot for a team. He's strictly a waiver wire option in an emergency situation in '09 re-drafts. In dynasty leagues, he's a luxury pick with a lot of upside but should have made good on that potential a long time ago.

Devin Moore, Seahawks:

• Skills: I have a really strong hunch that Moore, a rookie from Wyoming, is going to surprise. He's the fastest rookie runner in this class and he catches the ball well. What caught my eye was his toughness between the tackles. Like the Titans' Chris Johnson, Moore had no problem putting his head down and bouncing off hits. He was aggressive inside the hash marks and hit the holes hard. Once he gets into the open field, he'll keep defensive coordinators sleepless at night. The thing I like about him as a guy to watch is that he hits the hole hard and he's patient and this indicates he has good vision as a player who can do the two disparate things good backs do: anticipate an opening and spot the right crease to hit without hesitation.
• Obstacles: Unlike Chris Johnson, he lacked good pad level in college and he opens him self to huge shots, which you can see in excellent detail if you check out Draftguys TV's segment on Moore. With his diminutive size, his vision will have to be great at this level in order to compete for anything more than a third down role in an NFL offense.
• Outlook: Remember Amp Lee and Eric Metcalf? If you do, you know these guys were terrific options for fantasy owners because they had starting receiver-like production out of backfield or in the slot and you could expect 400-600 yards on the ground as a bonus. Devin Moore has this type of upside for an offense like Seattle who lacks a big-play threat at the RB position. He should make the team as a return specialist where he will excel. If he can fight his way into the offense as a situational player, he becomes a high risk-reward waiver wire pick in re-drafts. If you have a Seattle runner on your dynasty league squad, Moore is worth a late pick. The same goes if you're in a deep dynasty league and have an open spot.

Extras Hoping to Get Noticed

Jeremiah Johnson, Texans

• Skills: Johnson might be the most elusive back in this class and he is definitely the best in the open field. He's a fine receiver and he'll make an immediate impact as a return specialist for the Texans if he earns the opportunity.
• Obstacles: Johnson played in the spread attack at Oregon and, unlike his former backfield mate Jonathan Stewart, Johnson had a bad habit of bouncing runs outside without giving the play call the benefit of working with a more patient approach. If he, like Steve Slaton, can show he can make the transition to a zone-blocking scheme, his elusiveness can come into play. He's coming off an ACL tear sustained his junior year and according to Pro Football Weekly, teams were apparently more concerned about a dislocated shoulder in Oregon's second game of 2008 than Johnson expected. One thing that Sigmund Bloom mentioned in the Shark Pool about shoulder injuries is that runners with chronic shoulder problems don't last long in the NFL. If Johnson's shoulder injury reappears, his chances of sticking with a team as a future runner will be slim. It also didn't help matters that Johnson didn't have a game-breaking time in the 40-yard dash at the combine, although he looked plenty fast on film.
• Outlook: I was surprised a team didn't draft Johnson until I learned about the injury concerns with his shoulder. Yet he lands in a situation where he not only has a good chance to make the team, but also will be given an opportunity to contribute. Coach Gary Kubiak's initial track record with runners seems to have a strong influence from his time spent under Mike Shanahan and that means if Johnson plays like he's capable, he can be a significant part of the rotation. His best chance to succeed will be on special teams, but he's worth a late round gamble in dynasty leagues.

LaRod Stephens-Howling, Cardinals

• Skills: The reason I said Jeremiah Johnson 'might be' the most elusive back in the class is that Stephens-Howling is right up there. The former Pitt Panther has moves upon moves and runs with an urgency of a guy with his pants on fire. Although 5-7 and 180 pounds, Stephens-Howling is a tough player and breaks more tackles than one would expect because he has surprisingly good balance. He also knows how to press a hole and cut back to the crease as it opens. His receiving skills are strong and he does a nice job of creating space in zone coverage so he's open for his quarterback. He has the fearlessness and skill to make an NFL roster.
• Obstacles: The good part of running like your pants are on fire is the urgency, but the downside is he tends to dance too much and look for the big play like his only hope to survive is to find that bucket of water in the end zone. Like his former teammate LeSean McCoy, he needs to do a better job of picking a lane and sticking with it. Maybe he believes his right arm is on fire, too, because he never carried the ball there when I watched him run.
• Outlook: Stephens-Howling is another potential Amp Lee-Eric Metcalf type of back who is great in space and tough as nails for his size. In a wide-open offense like the Cardinals, he could be a versatile weapon out of the backfield. At this point, he's nice late round pick if your league provides scoring for return specialists (think Johnnie Lee Higgins). He'll probably be a fun player to watch in the preseason, but it is not likely he sees time in the offense this year unless the backfield is decimated with injuries. There's a good chance he doesn't even make the team because the Cardinals already has some dynamic players to return kicks and punts.

Josh Vaughn, Buccaneers

• Skills: The rookie from Richmond is 6-0, 232 pounds and his running style reminds me a lot of Jamal Anderson. His speed is average at best for an NFL runner, but he his very strong and capable of making sharp lateral cuts. He catches the ball well and he has a wicked stiff arm. I liked how he punished players at the point of attack, especially in the open field.
• Obstacles: Besides his lack of breakaway speed, he has a bad habit of trying to cut back runs where taking what the defense gives him and punishing them for it would be better. He needs to learn to hit the hole harder in short yardage situations. Much like the Raiders' big back Michael Bush who had this problem at Louisville, Vaughn has to understand that despite his small back agility, he needs to use his size and strength in short yardage and run decisively. This is one of the reasons why he wasn't drafted, because he was benched early in his senior season for not running with the power he had. Once he understood what the coaching staff was seeking from him, Vaughn looked like a different player.
• Outlook: Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward have a stranglehold on the starting rotation in Tampa, but Cadillac Williams exemplifies what can happen to an RB depth chart in the NFL. Vaughn has a fighting chance to make the roster and just like Jamal Anderson, a seventh round pick of the Falcons from BYU, he'll be a long-term project for dynasty owners and not likely even a waiver wire option for redraft leagues unless and epidemic of injuries strike.

Javarris Williams, Chiefs

• Skills: The Tennessee State star RB runs with a good wiggle and chops his stride, which helps him maintain his balance when hit. He has a good stiff arm and he protects the football well. He has strong enough vision to press the hole and find the cutback lane as well as make that second cut while in the crease to get to the second level.
• Obstacles: Williams seems to run with one speed and doesn't do a good job of varying his burst so defenders have a tougher time getting a bead on him. He does get into the habit of bouncing too many runs outside and change of direction tends to come off dipping to one side or the other than a hard, lateral cut.
• Outlook: Williams is not as talented as Larry Johnson or Jamaal Charles, but he could give Dantrell Savage some competition for a roster spot. If he improves his speed and limits his tendency to bounce runs outside, he could challenge Charles if the second-year back from Texas hasn't improved from his rookie year. Williams is a late round dynasty pick and a redraft free agent. I think long-term he has a chance to stick to a roster as a valuable No. 2 RB, but that chance will only come if an injuries force him into a lineup.

Tyrell Sutton, Packers

• Skills: The rookie from Northwestern is a strong open field runner with good hands. Sutton runs a lot tougher than you would expect from a spread formation back. He's a good after contact runner who keeps his pads low and his legs moving.
• Obstacles: What sums up this rookie is the phrase "Maurice Jones-Drew without the explosiveness." That's how I see him. Although he has a low center of gravity to deflect hits and the speed to hit the crease hard and get to the second level quickly, he isn't a home run player and his cutting ability isn't nearly as explosive as a Top tier runner. Not that the Green Bay depth chart is filled with established stars, but I think there's enough talent on the Packers to make it difficult for Sutton to stick unless the team envisions him as a change of pace guy on third down.
• Outlook: Sutton will need help to earn a job but if he can stay healthy and show more explosion than he did as a senior, then he has a better chance than I indicated.

Kory Sheets, 49ers

• Skills: Sheets catches the ball well, has good speed, and excellent agility. I think he has more big-play potential than their draft pick Glen Coffee. He has very good peripheral vision and if Steve Slaton can change his running style to be effective in the NFL, Sheets has a fighting chance.
• Obstacles: I thought Sheets was indecisive at the line of scrimmage and he loses his momentum on short yardage plays to get yards after contact. I don't think he's a patient runner and there are certain designed plays where you need to follow the blocking to have any chance of gaining yards and Sheets would try to freelance on those, which resulted in losses. Earlier in his career he had issues protecting the football.
• Outlook: If Sheets gets it together, he has more ability than Glen Coffee, but I wouldn't get too excited about him making good on that promise.

Ian Johnson, Vikings

• Skills: Johnson has some burst and straight-line speed that can make him a contributor in an NFL offenses. He catches the ball well with his hands and when he builds up a head of steam, he can be difficult to bring down. He follows blocks very well on gap plays and keeps the ball secure. He timed much faster at the combine than he appeared to run in games.
• Obstacles: Will his additional muscle mass translate to more power and speed? He's never been a great after contact runner where it is most needed: the first and second level of a defense. Although he follows blocks well on gap plays, these are power plays that don't require as much vision to spot holes and react as you would find with zone running schemes, which are prevalent in the pros.
• Outlook: Johnson isn't going to beat Chester Taylor for a job. He's a No. 3 RB at best for the Vikings and unless he finds himself on another team or the top of the depth chart misses significant time, I wouldn't consider him for dynasty or redraft leagues.

Antone Smith, Lions

• Skills: Smith runs with excellent fundamentals and this helps him break tackles and get yardage after contact that you would not expect from a guy of his size. He has enough of a burst to get outside and he's capable of sharp, lateral cuts. He catches the ball well with his hands and gives 100% as a blocker in the passing game.
• Obstacles: If he can somehow gain another 10 pounds he might have enough talent to become a committee back, but as is, he isn't that great of a finisher and his size is the reason why.
• Outlook: Smith already impressed the Lions' staff in mini camp and I think he has a good shot to make the roster as a third down option/change of pace guy. He's a high-effort player and when you're among this rung of backs, it does count for a lot.

Arian Foster, Texans

• Skills: Foster has first-day talent. He reminds me a lot of Eddie George due to his long-striding speed, hands, and finishing power.
• Obstacles: His decision-making leaves a lot to be desired. He'll try to make difficult cutbacks when taking what the defense gives him and using his power makes more sense. He doesn't accelerate into the hole with decisiveness and this really detracts from his natural power. He's a very smart guy (philosophy major), but not mature with his approach to the game.
• Outlook: Foster has a great opportunity to be what Chris Brown hasn't been in Houston, but he'll need to dedicate himself to the game. He's a better fit for a downhill running game than Jeremiah Johnson, but his underachieving ways make it more likely the versatile Johnson earns a spot.

P.J. Hill, Saints

• Skills: Point Hill in a direction and have him run in a straight line as fast as he can, and he's a load to tackle. He demonstrates some patience and footwork for his size and he does a good job of picking holes in tight spaces. He can make players miss and protects the ball well.
• Obstacles: It's purely coincidence, but Hill is a lot like another former Wisconsin back, Ron Dayne; big guys who run like small guys and ruin their chances to be worthwhile starters in the NFL with this approach. Hill is too tentative in traffic and his pads are too high to finish strong. He's frequently the loser in head-on collisions with defenders and his legs go dead on contact. He'll also need to become a much better pass blocker to get a sniff of the backfield for Sean Payton and Drew Brees to trust him.
• Outlook: Unless Hill had an awakening after his predraft, traffic incident that cost him a lot of good will and likely a chance to get drafted; he's a practice squad player in New Orleans, at best.

Chris Ogbonnaya, Rams

• Skills: Obgonnaya is an impressive receiver out of the backfield. He was one of only a few players who actually demonstrated the ability to catch passes downfield in tight coverage like a wide receiver. He's an athletic guy with build up speed, strength, and some agility. He's a raw prospect with some future promise.
• Obstacles: He has the raw tools, but lacks the creativity to get extra yards. His power seems limited to him moving north south and he lacks patience. His pre-snap reads of the defense are weak and he lacks suddenness. I don't think he's nearly as good of a runner as the three backs currently on the Rams depth chart.
• Outlook: Practice squad player, at best.

Marlon Lucky, Bengals

• Skills: He's a north south runner with power. He isn't really fast, but he attacks the line of scrimmage with aggression and he'll wear down a defense. He accelerates well out of his cuts and plays with good pad level. He gains yardage after contact he has enough size and fundamentals to be a two-down back and committee guy within the next couple of years.
• Obstacles: He's not used much in the passing game and he needs to be more aggressive at the point of attack when pass blocking. He lacks creativity as a runner; when there were opportunities for Lucky to bounce a run outside or make a move in the open field, he didn't even try. His acceleration and long speed aren't very good and I'm not sure if that has to do with his turf toe in 2007 or back injuries in 2006. The Bengals backfield isn't filled with all-stars, but it might be difficult for him to make a dent in it.
• Outlook: Practice squad player.