The Gut Check Vol. 153 - Rookie Impact Series: QB

  Posted 5/29 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Play Fool Fe Catch Wise

Why am I quoting a reggae song title? What does it have to do with rookie quarterbacks? And why should you even care about rookie quarterbacks if you aren't in a dynasty league?

Redraft leaguers link the words rookie and starting quarterback and the first word that comes to mind is YUCK. Only half of the Top 10 rookie performances in league history were starter worthy. Last year, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were the 16th and 20th ranked fantasy quarterbacks, respectively and they supplanted two of the former rookies on this list. A less-savvy fantasy owner's response might be there's nothing to see here, move along...

But don't turn your nose up too soon; during the pivotal bye-week stretch of Weeks 6 through Week 12, Ryan was a better producer than veterans David Garrard, Jeff Garcia, Eli Manning, Jake Delhomme, Marc Bulger, Brett Favre, and Ben Roethlisberger. Take Garrard and Garcia off that list and Flacco out-produced the remaining five in the same stretch. Not bad for two guys on most waiver wires a month into the season.

Respectively, Ryan and Flacco were only a point and two points per game away from being Top 12 quarterbacks during that stretch. Ryan was actually more consistent during that stretch than Jay Cutler, Shaun Hill, and Chad Pennington, producing one more starter-quality performance than these three during the same six-week period. Because most rookie quarterbacks are waiver wire fodder in redraft leagues, a fantasy owner who is more risk tolerant can use this likelihood to his benefit in competitive leagues when there are at least two potential opening day rookie starters.

If you know you have a chance to land a quality starter off the waiver wire, you may decide to draft one quarterback and use that spot originally slated for that reserve for an extra runner or receiver. Let those owners think they've outsmarted you when they pick a third or even fourth quarterback and talk trash about seeing you for a midseason trade. The term Play Fool Fe Catch Wise is patois for "play the fool to catch the wise". By allowing others to think you're ignorant about good fantasy football strategy, you can take this risk on that extra player you really wanted and know you can pick up a rookie early who will have a good chance to be a solid bye-week option.

In competitive leagues, one player can mean the difference between enough wins and losses for you to contend, and every advantage you can find counts. Quarterback is a good place to take a draft-day risk, because difference in points between low-end fantasy starters and high-end reserves is generally narrower at quarterback than other positions. While some owners were picking their No. 2 quarterback in Round 9 through Round 14, others got far more productive players like Steve Slaton, Le'Ron McClain, Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, Eddie Royal, and DeSean Jackson. Odds were in their favor that they were also able to drop an underperforming player for Ryan or Flacco, if they didn't already trade for a better option.

Determining Rookie Quarterback Impact

Although I think only three to four rookie quarterbacks are worth considering for the strategy I mentioned above, I'm going to provide a list of eleven signal callers who were drafted or signed to an NFL team. Some of these players will only get a shot to play this year if the worst-case scenario occurs for each team. Here's how I judged them:

• The reward and risk based on extensive film study I did for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
• Their potential fit with the team's current personnel and scheme.
• How close they fit into the profile of successful rookie fantasy starters
• Their short-term and long-term opportunity

As I mentioned earlier, there were only five quarterbacks who had an end-of-year ranking worth of a fantasy starter in a 12-team league:

* - Player's first year in the NFL, but he played in another league.
U - Player was not drafted by an NFL team.

Technically, only Peyton Manning, Rick Mirer, and Jim Zorn fit the profile of true rookies, but there was still an overall gap in talent between the NFL, USFL, and CFL so Kelly and Moon will also be factored into this examination. What do these players have in common?

• Four of the five QBs played in major college programs
• Three of the four QBs were Top 15 picks, and in my opinion, Moon would have been if he played in a more racially tolerant era.
• Four of the five QBs were at least 6'3 and 210 pounds; Zorn was 6'2, 200 pounds

Not a lot substance to these points other than they met the prototypical size/weight requirements and talent, and for the most part, the football world recognized it. Only two of the quarterbacks (Manning and Mirer) had 1000-yard rushers (Marshall Faulk and Chris Warren, respectively), and Faulk also had 86 receptions for 908 yards. Mirer, Kelley, and Zorn had backs with at least 380 yards as receivers, which is a healthy amount from the position.

It is intriguing to me that all of these quarterbacks had a receiving corps where the most productive two to three wide receivers had fewer than five years of experience. Manning, Kelly, and Zorn each had two receivers with at least 500 yards and a third very close to that figure. The stats also show that Manning, Mirer, Moon, and Zorn operated frequently from two-TE sets: all four had two tight ends rank within the Top 28 at their position for fantasy points during their rookie season. Jim Kelly's tight end, Pete Metzelaars, was ranked tenth. All of the quarterbacks listed had a receiver with at least 30 catches and a 14-yard per catch average, but I do think this information tells us that these quarterbacks spread the ball around and weren't afraid to dink and dunk their way up the field to tight ends and backs. They took what the defense gave them.

Will this information help us determine if there is a quarterback capable of breaking out as a rookie? We'll see if any of these signal callers have a similar environment that could match the past quarterbacks who did have a Top 12 season as a rookie.

Potential Starters

Mark Sanchez, Jets

• The Reward: Sanchez is a very fluid operator of the play action game. When a young player can force a defense to pause briefly to consider a run play, he buys himself extra time in the pocket to spot the open receiver. I think this is generally more effective than if you had an amazing athlete at the position who doesn't understand how to play-fake, drop, set, and throw. Sanchez executes several types of play-fakes with skill, and behind a quality offensive line like New York's he will have opportunities to make big plays. He's also capable of pinpoint accuracy when he has time, and he makes some difficult throws look easy. Combine these skills with the fact Sanchez installed a portion of the offense with his fellow rookies the night before the first minicamp, and it's no wonder the Jets are thrilled with their decision to trade up and acquire him. He's confident, skillful, and a hard worker. Eventually, good things should happen with his approach.
• The Risk: Sanchez had difficulty facing defenses that made it a point to shut him down by rushing him up the middle. Effective pressure up the middle is difficult for most quarterbacks, but Sanchez did show the propensity to make costly mistakes in these situations. He'll need to prove that he won't rush his passes into the thick of coverage. I saw him do this frequently in the face of pressure. Most of his decisions were good, but the propensity to rush his form, duck his head, and rip it is unsettling. His ability to make pinpoint throws will be tested more frequently in the pros because in college Sanchez often made these great passes to wide open receivers. It's one thing to hit the bull's eye when there's no potential obstacle in the path of your throw, but the NFL will be different. The other issue might be the approach the Jets take to develop Sanchez. Granted, there are certain players who benefited from playing right away, but if expectations are too high, too soon then the pressure can get intense and the player mentally/emotionally checks out. New York is a place ripe for this kind of thing to happen and if Sanchez loses focus, all the skill in the world won't help.
• The Fit: The Jets currently have one proven wide receiver with five years of experience (Jerricho Cotchery), a young tight end/receiver hybrid (Dustin Keller), a second-year speed merchant/slot guys with promise (David Clowney), and a slot option (Chansi Stuckey). RB Leon Washington had 46 receptions in 2008 and Thomas Jones once had 56 receptions with the Bears in 2004. As a runner Thomas Jones had decent yardage before Brett Favre, but he clearly benefited in the red zone with a veteran under center, only scoring once in 2007. The Jets have a decent defense that should improve if they have the talent to match Coach Ryan's scheme - I think they do, especially with the addition of Bart Scott in the middle. If they can get pressure from the outside, this unit could be excellent in 2009. This tells me that if Sanchez can be patient with the short game, he has a lot of options and a defense to keep the offensive game plan balanced if he can limit his mistakes.
• The Verdict: The lack of a proven deep threat makes this a situation where defenses can sit on outside routes and wreak havoc on the short passing game. There will only be so many non-garbage time situations where the backs can gain yardage and move the chains as receivers and teams will force Sanchez to prove he can hit the intermediate and deep passes in reasonable coverage to stretch before they unclamp the short routes. I know everyone is excited about Sanchez right now, but I believe starting him right away is not the best option. You can love the work ethic, the leadership, and the natural skills, but I think this team's running game lacks punch to allow Sanchez to do what he does best in the play action game. Shonn Greene could develop into that option, but he's a liability in pass coverage and an inconsistent receiver. Expect some solid garbage time games for Sanchez if he starts in 2009, but there will be bigger growing pains than what you saw from Matt Ryan. Last year's 16th-ranked fantasy QB had a dynamic running game and a game-breaking receiver to stretch the field. Sanchez will be capable of a few decent games in leagues that don't penalize for interceptions, but it is his long-term prospects that hold the most promise. If he makes it through his initial growing pains, I expect Sanchez to perform like a perennial Top 10 quarterback with a few elite years of production.

Matthew Stafford, Lions

• The Reward: Sanchez and Stafford are the 1 and 1A rookies in this quarterback class and on the surface Sanchez has the better situation. This may be the case, but one thing Stafford has proven that I have not seen from Sanchez is the ability to make throws when the defense has done everything correctly to stop the quarterback strategically. Like Favre, Cutler, McNabb, and Roethlisberger, Stafford can make those off-balance throws with a defender in his face or dragging him to the ground. Stafford is also a more mobile quarterback than discussed. He won't require a defense to put a spy on him, but he is quick and can gain first downs on designed runs or when breaking the pocket. What is apparent on film and blew away the Lions coaching staff is Stafford's ability to break down the game. Once he understands an offense, he is capable winning the line of scrimmage chess match with the opposing defense and make adjustments under live fire. Although the pro set offense Stafford ran at the University of Georgia is more basic than what he'll use in the NFL, it still requires a more advanced form of processing information and setting up receivers for success than what prospects transitioning from strictly the spread formation. His pocket presence is a little better than Sanchez's entering the NFL.
• The Risk: Stafford is an emotional player. It's apparent early in games because he allows his footwork to get sloppy and he loads up his deep throws with an extra push in his delivery that results in consistently overthrowing his receiver. I call him emotional because it happens at times when you would expect a player to be excited or nervous: early in a game or in his first week of NFL practices. It's not too uncommon for a young quarterback to have this problem. He also gets sloppy with his footwork at unpredictable moments and has been known to make a boneheaded throw or two during a game. He'll eventually be under center for a team that seems a long way away from consistently good play, and it's easy to imagine Stafford suffering through a season we've seen with rookies Troy Aikman or David Carr. If this happens, it could ruin his confidence level and execution. Stafford is a less vocal leader who isn't known for his sparkling charisma like Mark Sanchez. He says what needs to be said and moves on.
• The Fit: I think the Lions coaching staff and front office are in agreement that rebuilding the Lions will require a patient approach, and that begins with grooming their rookie quarterback. There is a clear game plan in place to bring Stafford along at a pace that insures that when he takes the field he's ready to handle the pitfalls that will come his away. Daunte Culpepper has reported to camp in good shape and is taking a very professional approach to leading this team, while knowing his time will be limited there. This approach should help the Lions because, unlike the Jets, they may not have to opt for their rookie to give them the best chance to win. There is a nice young nucleus developing with this offense. Calvin Johnson is physically the most dominating receiver in the NFL, and he gives the Lions a chance to make the big play regardless of the coverage defenses throw at him. The addition of Ronald Curry and Bryant Johnson give Stafford three wide receivers with less than five years of experience who are athletically capable of producing in the right environment. Rookie Derrick Williams has the skills after the catch, but he may need time to develop into an effective receiver. He might be a career slot receiver with limited effectiveness if he doesn't work to improve his routes. RB Kevin Smith had a solid rookie year and he's a tough player with the quickness, footwork, vision, and work ethic to develop into a 1300-yard back. His receiving skills as a rookie were decent, compiling 39 receptions and 286 yards. The addition of two rookie tight ends with good hands will give Stafford a lot of underneath options to complement Johnson's skill to stretch the defense. Brandon Pettigrew is a big, sure-handed prospect who can block and can force opposing defenses to take their focus off Calvin Johnson, and the lesser known Dan Gronkowski is a sneaky good player who is a high effort blocker and skilled enough as a receiver to make an impact. When it's all said and done, Johnson is still the key because he is too dangerous for opposing defenders to ignore the deep pass. Once Stafford gets his chance, he has shown repeatedly in college that he is not afraid to throw the ball into tight coverage and trust his receivers to make the play.
• The Verdict: Sanchez is the name on everyone's lips right now, but if the Lions are as patient with Stafford as I expect them to be, the top pick in this year's draft will have the last word. If the Lions can get their offensive line to do a workmanlike job, Stafford has more versatile weapons to produce. I do expect the Lions to improve this season because I believe they picked the right head coach in former Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. If the team feels Stafford is ready to start early in the season, expect him to perform well enough that he can deliver a three- or four-game stretch of productivity worthwhile to a fantasy owner needing a bye-week QB. Because of Calvin Johnson, I think Stafford has more fantasy upside this year if he sees time, but he is less likely to be rushed into action. Stafford is also more likely to see a lot of garbage time because the Detroit defense is going to be under construction all year and the Lions will need to abandon the run early more often than the Jets.

Josh Freeman, Buccaneers

• The Reward: If you're looking for a big quarterback with smarts, toughness, poise, and a ridiculous arm, Josh Freeman is the one. He's a mechanically sound quarterback who coaches won't need to take a lot of time to refine his drops or delivery. I was impressed with Freeman's pocket presence against fast, blitzing defenses. He knew he was going to take a shot but faced the fire to deliver accurate passes downfield. He also continued to play in one game after getting banged up and kept his team in the contest until the very end. He reminds me a lot of Steve McNair for his arm and poise but in Daunte Culpepper's pre-injury body.
• The Risk: Freeman believes he's the best quarterback in this class, and it is entirely possible this could turn out to be the case. However, compared to Stafford and Sanchez, he stares down his receivers far too frequently and doesn't have as much practice manipulating coverage in the pro set. Bigger quarterbacks also tend to have the mentality that they can stand in the pocket and hold onto the ball longer than they should. If Freeman falls into this trap early in his career, it could become a tough habit for him to break. I like the fact that Buccaneer's new head coach Raheem Morris has enough confidence in Freeman to pick the rookie this high after they spent time together at Kansas State, but this could become a situation where the coaching staff is too optimistic about a prospect and put him in too early. If this happens, Freeman will struggle. He's not as great of a reach as Tarvaris Jackson was for Ray Childress and the Minnesota Vikings, but I think Freeman was more of a second-round talent at this stage of his development.
• The Fit: Tampa is known for a good, young offensive line, but they also played in a West Coast offense that operated off short drops with a quick, mobile quarterback like Jeff Garcia. If Morris changes the offensive scheme, the line will be tested with a young quarterback who might lack the immediate discipline to get rid of the ball quickly. If Freeman gets into the lineup in year one, he has a great talent in Antonio Bryant, but I'm concerned Bryant is a better fit with veteran signal callers who can keep him engaged on the field and make sure he's playing at his top form. The addition of Kellen Winslow, Jr. will certainly benefit any quarterback, and veteran Ike Hilliard is another decent short option. Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham, and Cadillac Williams (when healthy) form a solid trio of backs who can move the chains and catch the football. On the other side of the ball the Tampa-2 is about to undergo an overhaul that might need more than a year to complete. I'd say Freeman is in a situation that might have the best of what Detroit and New York has to offer their respective quarterbacks. If he progresses faster than expected, his situation is the nicest for a rookie to produce.
• The Verdict: This year I expect Byron Leftwich and Luke McCown to be atop the depth chart, but if things go sour in Tampa then Freeman could get enough trash collection to get dynasty owners excited about his future. I think it's highly possible we'll see the rookie as the Buccaneers starter by 2010. If Bryant and Winslow can stay in top form, we might be looking at the most productive quarterback of the three. The issue will be whether he can improve his read and recognition skills as quickly as I anticipate from Stafford and Sanchez.

Productive Role Player

Pat White, Dolphins

• The Reward: Strictly on the basis of rookie impact, White might have the most of any quarterback in this class simply because his skills are a great match for Miami's Wildcat scheme. He isn't as dynamic a runner as Michael Vick, but he has enough speed, quickness, and vision to be effective against NFL defenses in the Dolphins' system. But the former West Virginia Mountaineer is far more than a spread/option quarterback in terms of his skill sets. White might throw the most accurate deep ball of the quarterbacks in this class, and he has a strong enough arm to gun the ball 40 yards downfield while on the run. As a pocket passer, I thought he demonstrated enough skills to be a legitimate prospect at the position. I know Peter King thinks White will be transitioned to a slot receiver role, but the respected Sports Illustrated writer is purely an NFL columnist who might watch college football in whatever spare time he has. I would speculate he's making this comment based on what he knows about the history of the NFL and not Pat White. I've watched enough film on White to know that he understands how to make subtle moves in the pocket to avoid the rush but keep his eyes downfield. He also demonstrates the ability to manipulate the defense with his eyes. He may be an unusual prospect as a future starter based on his physical skill sets, but his best chance to make an NFL impact will be as a starting quarterback.
• The Risk: The reason why the media and some NFL teams don't expect Pat White to be a starting quarterback in a traditional offense is his 6'0, 197-pound frame. There are a base set of physical skills that NFL personnel staff feel far more secure having in a quarterback. White lacks to of them: 1) the height to see over linemen, and 2) the weight to withstand punishment in the pocket. The average fan can argue that players like Drew Brees, Doug Flutie, Jeff Blake, and Michael Vick were good quarterbacks and didn't have this prototypical height and weight, but they are regarded as exceptions to the rule. I would also argue that as a passer, Vick is a regarded as a bust. Despite White's pocket skills, he'll need to prove he can get the job done against bigger, faster, and more intricate NFL defenses. Another deficiency is White's touch. He's accurate, but he has more difficulty throwing passes that require arc and less velocity. This makes him more of a liability on fades, corner routes, and touch passes often used in the red zone. It's possible that if he doesn't improve in this area, Miami's red zone offense would suffer with White as its starter because teams could shut down the run and force him to throw the ball.
• The Fit: The Dolphins have some decent weapons available to Pat White when he runs the Wildcat offense. Ronnie Brown is an elite runner when 100 percent healthy, and Ricky Williams is one of the better No. 2 backs in the NFL. Plus, both are excellent receivers out of the backfield. Just like the offensive profiles of the breakout rookies, Miami has a very good tight end in Anthony Fasano and young receivers with less than five years of starting experience. Ted Ginn and Davone Bess actually look like the type of receivers that former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez would have drooled over in his version of the spread offense. Both are excellent runners after the catch and appear to be good fits for what White already does best as a quarterback. It would be one of the major storylines of the 2009 season if Miami were to operate solely out of the spread and the Wildcat with Pat White as their quarterback. I think chances are slim this happens, but we should see enough of White in every game that he makes headlines for his playmaking.
• The Verdict: White might be on the field more than any rookie quarterback in 2009, but I would not expect his production to be consistent. He might have a few big games that draw impetuous fantasy owners to jump over each other trying to get White off the waiver wire, but unless the Dolphins decide to use the Wildcat as the main formation in their offense, White's opportunities will be limited and his fantasy production wildly inconsistent. White has the fundamentals to challenge Chad Henne for the No. 2 spot regardless of the offensive scheme, and I believe there's a chance he could win that job outright in training camp. If this happens, he could be a viable free agent option if something happens to Chad Pennington. Long-term, White is probably the ultimate boom-bust pick as a fantasy quarterback. Even if he earns an opportunity to start, I don't expect him to be the type of player to gain 700-1000 yards on the ground and 2500 yards through the air. He might reach 300-500 on the ground because he's not a very strong player and his running style is far too upright to withstand physical punishment. As a passer, I think he has the potential to become a 3000-yard passer, but unless he becomes a touchdown machine these stats make him a borderline fantasy starter. If he can improve his touch, then I think he has a better chance to post numbers like a productive fantasy starter. At this point his short-term impact seems better than his long-term. If the Dolphins make him a receiver his size and speed are average at best for the position.

Dynasty Diamond in the Rough

Nate Davis, 49ers

• The Reward: Davis is the most underrated quarterback in this class. He has a very quick release, good downfield accuracy, and enough mobility and pocket presence to make plays downfield and avoid sacks. If you hear anyone in the media say that his stock went down based on his final two games of the year, it's a good indicator that you might want to change your reading/viewing habits. The MAC Championship game versus Buffalo wasn't a bad, passing performance; Davis fumbled the ball three times - twice trying to extend the play as a runner. The bowl game versus Tulsa was played in winds unsuitable for anyone to throw the ball. Davis has an NFL arm, he's capable of pinpoint accuracy downfield, and he is probably the best improviser in this class.
• The Risk: The reasons Davis became a fifth-round pick have more to do with the fact he has dyslexia and he has an unorthodox grip. The dyslexia makes it difficult for Davis to absorb knowledge through reading and writing as quickly as the average person, but he's a good visual learner. People with learning disabilities are often highly intelligent but have difficulty with one style of learning. Fortunately, learning how to play football is very much a visual learning experience. Davis' unorthodox grip has to do with the fact he wears gloves and will grip the ball on the non-laces side. ESPN's Ron Jaworski picked apart this aspect of Davis' game at the NFL Draft, but his colleagues countered that Peyton Manning is highly accurate and throws a ball that isn't always pretty. Based on what I saw on film, I think this is a minor issue. The biggest risk is whether Davis will be able to transition to a more complex offense. I saw Davis work under center at Ball State - he was very effective, but his primary scheme was the spread.
• The Fit: I think San Francisco is a great fit for a passer like Davis, and he could be a dark horse to start if he has an especially strong camp. Shaun Hill is a decent back up, and Alex Smith has been disappointing due to injury and a slow transition to the style of play in the NFL. The 49ers have several young, talented receivers. Michael Crabtree is obviously the headliner, but Jason Hill has long reminded me of a player capable of developing into a player of Isaac Bruce's skill sets. Finally, Josh Morgan has the physical talent of an elite receiver. TE Vernon Davis might be the most physically talented at his position in the NFL, but he needs to develop a more professional approach to learning the game. If he continues to falter, Delanie Walker can be a solid option. Throw in Frank Gore, and a quarterback capable of keeping the play alive and making accurate downfield plays could make this a terrific offense. Davis has the skills to be that player.
• The Verdict: Short-term, I think Davis is the No. 3 QB on this roster, and the starting job will be between Smith and Hill. His greatest value is two to three years from now. Long-term I think he has the skills to become an NFL starter and he makes a nice mid- to late-round dynasty pick to stash on a roster.

Quality Backups With Long Term Starter Potential

Brian Hoyer, Patriots

• The Reward: Hoyer had moments of excellence in college where his technique, decisions, and physical skill made it easy to imagine him starting for a team on Sundays. He's aggressive as a downfield passer and doesn't get rattled easily. I like his skills with pump fakes and play fakes. I can easily see why the Patriots signed him after the draft.
• The Risk: Hoyer didn't elevate the Spartans the way some quarterbacks do, but to be fair, the Big Ten is a competitive conference. He tends to overthrow the ball on deeper and intermediate routes and lacks the skill to extend plays like the guys mentioned above.
• The Fit: This could be the best place for any pocket passer with potential to end up. Once they got past their Rohan Davey phase, the Patriots have figured out how to find quarterbacks who are good matches for their system. I expect Hoyer to develop in this system and, if called upon, deliver.
• The Verdict: He's strictly a waiver wire option in any league, but depending on the way the Patriots depth chart shakes out with O'Connell, Guitierrez, and Hoyer, he might be worth a pickup on a deep roster for a dynasty league. I was tempted to put Hoyer in the group with Davis, but until we see what he does with his initial opportunity in New England, I don't want to overstate his long-term value.

Rhett Bomar, Giants

• The Reward: If Bomar didn't place himself in the middle of a job scandal at Oklahoma, this quarterback class might have had three big-time prospects, and no one would know about Sam Bradford yet. Bomar has the arm, athleticism, and aggressiveness to be a big-time quarterback. His mechanics are decent enough that if Giants back up Andre Woodson hasn't fixed his elongated delivery, Bomar could potentially beat the former Kentucky star for his spot on the depth chart.
• The Risk: Bomar takes a lot of risks as a signal caller. He needs to be more discriminating when he tucks the ball and runs. He took some big shots trying to break the pocket and gain yardage rather than throwing the ball away or sliding at the end of a decent run. He'll also try to squeeze passes into coverage in situations where this type of play wasn't needed. His recklessness will need to be toned down for him to have a chance to become a decent NFL starter.
• The Fit: Considering I don't expect Bomar to take over for Eli Manning unless there is a catastrophic injury, it's difficult to project Bomar in the Giants offense far enough into the future where he has a legitimate chance to start. If he had to start during the season, I think we would see a player who would likely make enough mistakes to get benched in favor of a journeyman brought in make good decisions and not lose the game.
• The Verdict: Bomar has Matt Hasselbeck-like potential long term. He's a player that should be available on dynasty waiver wires for the next year or two. In redraft leagues, he has no value.

Stephen McGee, Cowboys

• The Reward: McGee is a mature leader for his age. He has the physical skills to be a pro quarterback.
• The Risk: He played in a spread offense most of his career at Texas A&M and needs to learn how to play in a pro style offense.
• The Fit: Tony Romo should have several years left as the Dallas starter. The chances of McGee seeing the field early in his career are slim, even as a back up. If he does, Dallas has enough weapons to make McGee a risky bye-week pick up at best in a fantasy league.
• The Verdict: McGee could develop quickly enough to make him nice trade bait for the Cowboys. At the same time, the Cowboys are a fickle organization by NFL standards. It's possible they could decide that Tony Romo isn't the player they anticipated if McGee shows enough potential in the next two to three seasons. I expect McGee to become a valuable back up with starter potential for another team.

Career Backups With Occasional Starting Value

Curtis Painter, Colts

• The Reward: Painter has the arm and acumen to spread the ball around the field.
• The Risk: He played in a spread system at Purdue ,and he'll need to refine his drops, play fakes, and timing in a pro set.
• The Fit: With the weapons the Colts have, Painter could be effective sooner than later, but with Manning's track record as a starter, it's not likely Indy will need to find out for another five years.
• The Verdict: Painter is at best an emergency option for a fantasy owner in the short-term, but if Kyle Orton can carve out some fantasy value, Painter has that potential as well.

John Parker Wilson, Falcons

• The Reward: Wilson has a lot of similar skills to Matt Ryan. He moves reasonably well, he's capable of pinpoint accuracy, and he has enough arm strength to make the requisite throws in the NFL. He is one of the better deep-ball throwers in this class of rookies.
• The Risk: None of his skills are on the same level of Ryan or the other elite prospects in this class. He isn't adept at extending the play outside the pocket, and when he's forced to, he'll try to throw the ball across his body or take risks that lead to negative plays for the offense.
• The Fit: The Falcons provide Wilson a chance to develop in an offense that isn't much different than the one he operated at Alabama in terms of overall philosophy - use the power running game to set up the pass and keep mistakes to a minimum.
• The Verdict: Wilson lacks great upside, but he has enough skills to develop into strong back up and a surprisingly decent starter with a strong team around him. He lacks superstar skills, and he's not a likely player you add to a fantasy roster until he's proven he can produce consistently. This should be several years from now.

Mike Teel, Seahawks

• The Reward: Teel is accurate in the pocket and moves reasonably well in tight spaces. His arm in strong enough to make the NFL throws and he's a mature leader.
• The Risk: He isn't the type of player who can extend a play.
• The Fit: Seattle's West Coast attack is good for players who are best in the pocket and delivering the ball quickly. This system is a good fit for Teel to develop.
• The Verdict: If Teel is going to maximize his potential Seattle is a good place for him to begin. I see him as a back up who is capable of being productive if there's a lot of offensive talent around him.

From the Inbox

Footballguys staff writer Chase Stuart sent me an e-mail this week about my RB Workload piece. I want to share the e-mail and my response.

Hey Matt,

Glad to have you on board, and I love listening to you on the Audible. I wanted to throw some thoughts your way on your latest article [Here's something you said that I want to comment on]:

"Certainly he could do what Curtis Martin did and have a huge season later in his career, but if I have to follow historical averages with rankings…"

The thing is, you *don't* have to follow historical averages. You were so receptive to the Shark Pool feedback last week, that I thought you wouldn't mind some more. Looking at historical averages is an interesting thing. Knowing that seven of the Top 12 won't repeat, and that two rookies will be in the Top 12 is interesting.

It's useful if you're writing a book on NFL history. It's useful if you're assigning confidence levels to your fantasy projections. But it's not useful for creating fantasy rankings to the extent that a player falling out of the Top 12 isn't obvious (and in that case, you don't care about historical averages -- think Tiki Barber after he retired) and trying to make your individual rankings match group historical results is a bad way to make accurate projections.

It might seem counter intuitive, but group projections necessarily should differentiate from individual projections in this instance. Consider a 10-team fantasy league. Player A, who has an FBG subscription, has a 37% chance of winning the league. Players B through J, who don't subscribe to FBG, each have a seven percent chance of winning the league. If you were to project someone to win the league, you'd project Player A to win. But if I asked you, "Will Player A win the league?" the correct answer would be "no." He's *not* more likely than not going to win the league. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't be projected to win. That's the difference between an individual projection (you give him the best chance to win) and a group projection (the field will win).

How about a more relevant example? You have Knowshon Moreno and Donald Brown in your Top 12 because two rookie RBs "should be" in there and those two are the best rookie RBs. But the notion of two good rookie RBs is a group projection, while your rankings of Moreno and Brown specifically are individual projections.

From 1988 to 2008, there were 21 NFL drafts and therefore 42 RBs drafted among the first two RBs in their class. Just 9 of the 42 ranked in the Top 12 their rookie seasons. Just once in 21 seasons - 2007 - were the top two RBs drafted in their class also Top 12 fantasy RBs that season. It was Peterson and Lynch (who just made the cut at RB 12). So while you might say 2.3 rookie RBs will be in the Top 12, the odds of Brown and Moreno being in the Top 12 is incredibly small - less than 5 percent based on past history.

Don't let this information make you put Beanie Wells in your Top 12, though. Only two of the 21 RBs drafted third in their class ranked in the Top 12 (Robert Edwards and Eddie George) as rookies, and only three others (Errict Rhett, Cadillac Williams, and Kevin Jones) ranked in the Top 24. So less than one-fourth of the No. 3 RBs ranked in the Top 24 as rookies.

The odds of any Top 12 RB staying in the Top 12 may not be great; but it's *always* higher than the odds of your average RB13-RB24 runner vaulting into the Top 12. Moving a player into the Top 12 just because history says it will happen is not a good way to make individual projections.

The reason for this is often the reason a player falls out of the Top 12 is because something unpredictable happens. He gets hurt. He has a really hard SOS. He falls down at the one-yard line a lot. His backup RB plays much better than anyone thought. By nature, we're calling these things unpredictable; trying to predict what's unpredictable should sound absurd, and it is. The goal of individual fantasy projections isn't to be perfect, but rather to be as accurate as possible. To do that, you should focus on each individual player and not what groups of players do.

To drive the point home with a sledgehammer, consider that almost every season, a Top 12 fantasy QB is not a Week 1 starter. Do you really want to put someone who is not an opening day starter in your fantasy Top 12? We may know that one of Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Leinart, Tyler Thigpen, Chad Henne, Chris Simms, whoever the backup is behind Brees/Manning/Brady is, Charlie Batch, Seneca Wallace, and Jeff Garcia will probably end up in the Top 12. That does not mean you should take the most likely of that group and plop them in your Top 12. While that might seem obviously inaccurate, that's really no different than the theory you espoused in your article.

It's easy to do the math and see what every year seven RBs will fall out of last year's Top 12. Therefore, we should move someone else, up. But it's just as obvious that on a head-to-head basis (say, RB4 in 2008 vs. RB 14 in 2008), the Top 12 RB the prior year is more likely to remain in the Top 12. Obviously I'm not saying you should keep your list the same every year; I'm just saying don't mean any one player down to fit a group trend of players like him falling down. The problem is assigning 100 percent of the penalty to 50 or 58 percent of the players.

Anyway, hopefully these comments don't come off the wrong way. I'm a fan of your work so far and thought you'd be open to criticism. I've taken way more criticism than most in the Pool, and it's made me a much better fantasy writer.

Chase

My response:

Hey Chase,

I'm always open to criticism and thanks for your e-mail. I see your point about individual/versus group projections, but it was fun delving into that kind of thinking. I've done it several ways and frankly, none of us are going to be right.

It sounds like there's a right away to be wrong and a wrong way to be wrong and I'm taking the wrong way based on what you've written. And I'm sure that is true, because if I'm trying to represent something statistically, and it's not the best stance, then yeah, it's wrong even if the results this year proved to be right. I hadn't thought about it from that perspective. You're point about the rookie backs ties that together well.

In one sense my rankings are based on trying to fit individuals into a group dynamic, and your point is valid. What I haven't mentioned is I don't see myself sticking to that dynamic all preseason. I just wanted to use it as a starting point to see where it will take me, and I want to share with readers which players I like to fit these spots if things fell into place based on the historical averages.

As events happen during the season, I will make changes, and it won't fit the format of the averages. Still, I want to experiment with what my rankings will be like if I begin from this place and update it from there rather than the best guys from last year being the best guys to begin this year, which is what I've almost always have done.

One thing I didn't mention in this e-mail response is that I'm looking at the players I think have the best chance to produce not just based on statistical history, but who I really think has the talent and situation to be an excellent player in this league. It's higher risk but yes, if I think Kurt Warner, the back up to Leinart at this time last year, should be the player to target, then I'm going to rank him higher than Leinart and put him in a spot where I think it makes sense to grab him. To play it safe, Chase's explanation of how the stats will play out is more accurate.

At this point, I would rather have a talent like Moreno or Brown over several other established players. The stats available to us only explain the bottom-line production and chances of repeating, but it does not encompass all the dynamics that we factor into determining a talented player. Plus there were three rookie RBs who made the Top 12, and I think Chase was assuming (and correctly according to stats) that the best rookie backs were the first three backs selected, which I wouldn't have assumed. I just think this year Moreno and Brown are the best backs in the best situation to produce like fantasy starters at a high level; the draft status is merely coincidence.