The Gut Check Vol. 152 - Breakout Wide Receivers: Adventures in Stat-Profiling

  Posted 5/16 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

The term 'profiling' doesn't sit well with me. It's tough not to think of Dallas police officer Robert Powell doing his worst smashup impersonation of Barney Fife and Dirty Harry with the Moats family as a hostile audience. Fortunately, we're talking about football and not a law enforcement officer losing his common sense and humanity. Although (most) NFL wide receivers are several notches below Robert Powell when it comes to engendering hostility, if I could find a profiling method to determine which one was going to flake out next I would gladly run the numbers. At least there's a profiling method to determine which new players are on the edge of becoming the next diva and that's what this column will cover.

Since 2004, I've been using a statistical profile initially developed by Tony San Nicholas to determine which wide receivers have a high probability to produce a 150-point fantasy season. This is the magic number because historically - including last year - reaching that 150-point mark would have placed a wide receiver within the top 15 producers at his position.

Behind the Curtain: The Strategy behind My WR Rankings

Even if you aren't looking for a sleeper, it's vital to understand the dynamics of turnover in the rankings at the wide receiver position from year to year. Between 2006-2008, an average of 16.67 players that made the top 36 list weren't there the previous year - meaning only 58% of the receivers produced like a fantasy starter the year before in a three-wide receiver league. The turnover only increases the higher you get up the list. Of the receivers making the top 24 and top 12 respectively, only 53% were there the year before.

If you aren't convinced by now that the fantasy landscape at the wide receiver position doesn't change dramatically in a short time, wait until you see how many receivers have three straight years of starting quality production:

• Average No. WRs in the Top 12 for three consecutive seasons: 2
• Average No. WRs in the Top 24 for three consecutive seasons: 6.67
• Average No. WRs in the Top 36 for three consecutive seasons: 14.67

The average fantasy owner can have a false sense of security when creating a top-12 list if they presume the same five to six receivers will have elite production. The half-decent part of that statement is that if you hit upon the right six receivers, they'll at least have a good shot of being top-24 performers. Still, the turnover is not a comforting thought and anything that helps fantasy owners identify some of those 16.67 players who weren't in the top 36 at their position in 2008, but will produce starting quality numbers in 2009 is helpful. As we approach August, I'll continue to refine my rankings with this data as my foundation.

Stat Profile of a Breakout Wide Receiver

Creating a statistical profile of a breakout candidate is one way of finding them. Tony San Nicholas, a fantasy owner I know, researched which stats were most common for receivers who experienced a breakout season. He discovered five things that provide a reasonable list of candidates:

• 85% of breakout receivers (at least 150 Fpts) did it between their second and fifth seasons
• 81% caught at least 41 balls
• 78% scored at least twice
• 71% gained 400 yards
• Five receivers per year reach that 150-point mark per year, on average

Last year's preliminary list included Kevin Walter, Jerricho Cotchery, and Michael Jenkins, three players I left off my final list but had better production than seven of the players there. Only Walter was a borderline breakout candidate of the three.

My goal is to provide a large enough list for discussion and then rank them according to likelihood to produce as a breakout starter. Here's how 2008's final list performed:

If you can use this stat profiling to identify between three to six starting-quality receivers who are mid-to-late round picks and will outplay higher valued receivers by season's end then I consider this method a success.

One thing the top-20 receivers who were breakout candidates have in common is a starting-quality player as a teammate.

• Dwayne Bowe-Tyler Thigpen (13)* and Tony Gonzalez (1)
• Calvin Johnson-Kevin Smith (18)
• Bernard Berrian-Adrian Peterson (3) and Visanthe Shiancoe (8)
• Justin Gage-Chris Johnson (11) and LenDale White (19)

  *Thigpen was ranked 13th for the entire year despite not starting the entire season.

There were players who made the top 36 who didn't meet the statistical profile and the reason they got a chance to produce is apparent once you see their names:

• Lance Moore (12) - Marques Colston only started six games due to injuries.
• Eddie Royal (23) - His rookie year.
• Steve Breaston (28) - He started nine games, but really got more looks after Anquan Boldin's injury versus the Jets.
• DeSean Jackson (25) - He received more opportunities as a rookie with Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis suffering injuries and playing 10 and nine games respectively.

As you can see, it's much easier to predict players who meet statistical criteria than rookies or young vets earning opportunities due to another's injury. Despite the fact that the number of rookies making starter-worthy impact in the NFL is trending upward since the late 90s, rookie receivers are more difficult to project. Of the four receivers listed, only Lance Moore's ranking qualified him as a breakout receiver in 2008. The rest will definitely earn consideration as candidates this year.

2009 Breakout Candidates: The Preliminary List

We're looking for receivers between their second and fifth season who in 2008 had at least 41 receptions, 400 yards, and two scores. Players who just missed the cut that I would watch include the Giants Steve Smith and second-year, undrafted free agent Davone Bess of the Dolphins. Both are skilled receivers who I think will continue to develop into starters. Nate Washington and Devery Henderson also came close, but their respective teams view both receivers as quality No. 3 options who can deliver if their preferred starters get hurt or underwhelm.

A 13-player list isn't a bad starting point, but the likelihood of these 13 players having a breakout season, much less making the top 36 in 2009 is low. Consider there are quality starters returning from injury (Marques Colston, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Deion Branch, and Kevin Curtis) and promising rookies (Michael Crabtree, Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Brian Robiskie, and Jeremy Maclin) in offenses that need their services immediately.

Of course you could disagree, add all these players together, and include the some of the perennial, top performers and you've got a compelling start to a top-36 right here. I just don't believe we'll have six rookies in the top 36 and some of the players returning from injury are suspect (or in the case of Burress, suspects). This preliminary list of breakouts also has players who I don't think will make the cut.

Red Tags in Their Lockers

Matt Jones, Free Agent: What we've learned from Matt Jones' public escapades is that he is actually more talented than ESPN reporter Chris Mortensen gushed on air when Jones was drafted. You have to be gifted to tease teammates and fans with moments of excellence although his quarterback said he consistently didn't know the plays and where to line up until last year. Considering Jones racked up demerits with the NFL's drug program in healthy supply, can you imagine what would be possible if he channeled that energy into his job? If Jones somehow finds his way back to the NFL's good graces - ala Antonio Bryant or Koren Robinson - he just requires the commitment and focus to be a dangerous threat to NFL defenses instead of him self. It's much easier said than done.

Greg Camarillo, Dolphins: Camarillo was a pleasant surprise for Miami in 2008, beating out the more heralded Derek Hagan and Ernest Wilford for the starting job. Camarillo is a mix of Wes Welker and Wayne Chrebet; an overachiever who became a reliable option. The reason I think he's not likely to improve upon last year's stats is the knee injury he suffered in week 11. Although there's optimism that Camarillo's reconstructive knee surgery was a success and he'll be ready for training camp, the odds are against him to return to his pre-injury form until 2010. Expect Devon Bess and rookie Patrick Turner to give Camarillo some competition. Until his knee fully heals, I don't expect him to do more than split time in the slot with Bess.

The next three receivers are players who have shown the talent to be starters, but the opportunity isn't there.

Skilled, But the Stars Must Align Exactly (Projected top 36-48)

Michael Jenkins, Atlanta: The former Ohio State Buckeye had some strong games in '08, coming through with 50 catches 777 yards and a trio of scores. As promising as his production last year appears when viewing it from the perspective of the Falcons' strong ground game and a precocious passer, Jenkins' upside was likely capped a couple of weeks ago when Atlanta acquired TE Tony Gonzalez. QB Matt Ryan should improve and the passing game should become more dynamic, but this team will still lean on the run for as long as Michael Turner is in the backfield. Unless injury forces Jenkins to be more than the third guy on the totem pole, expect 400-600 yards from the Falcons' possession guy.

Steve Breaston, Cardinals: Breaston had an excellent year for a No. 3 receiver in the Cardinals' high-flying offense. The Michigan alum added more muscle to his frame and looked sharp from training camp through the Super Bowl. He came through several times in '08 with leaping catches and strong gains after receptions with his open field skills. His role in the offense is generally as an underneath threat: short outs, crossers, hitches, and slants. What limits Breaston is the presence of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. It's difficult to project three receivers going over 1,000 yards two years in a row. The last time a trio even achieved 1,000 yards was the Colts corps of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley in 2004 - and they didn't repeat. If injury strikes the Cardinals starters or Boldin is dealt before the season, then Breaston's opportunities greatly increase. Otherwise, expect Breaston's stats to regress in 2009. He's a valuable player to draft in the late rounds, but to value him as anything more than a weak, No. 3 fantasy receiver is expecting a little more than I believe he's worth.

Domenik Hixon, Giants: Hixon has shown big-play potential and gained the confidence of Eli Manning as the season wore on. He was especially adept at deep perimeter routes and he's a decent threat after the catch. The Giants clearly wished to upgrade their receiving corps prior to the draft and a deal for Braylon Edwards was nearly completed, but the Browns weren't able to convince New York to let go of their other young receiver, Steve Smith. This should indicate to fantasy owners that Smith is the more valued player. Hixon was not even mentioned in trade talks, according to the Giants' staff. Smith may not be as explosive as Hixon, but he's a more polished receiver and has won the trust of Manning in pivotal moments of drives. The addition of Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden will have a greater effect on Hixon long-term, but don't be surprised if Nicks cracks the line up by midseason of 2009 and Hixon is relegated to a situational role. As with Breaston, Hixon has the skills and the confidence of his quarterback to produce like a starter, but he's not likely to be the Giants first option.

This narrows the field to 8 receivers I think are capable of breaking into the top 36 in 2008. Here's how I see them in order of least to most potential.

Good, But Don't Go Overboard (Projected Top 25-36)

Donnie Avery, Rams: I was surprised Avery played as well as he did for stretches of his rookie year. His speed was a known quantity, but I was especially impressed with his ability to track the deep ball in tight coverage. The reasons I don't see Avery making a significant increase in production have to do with the youth of the Rams receiving corps and the change of the offense's focus. Although Torry Holt wasn't at peak form in 2008, he still garnered the respect of opposing defenses. The rookie went on a three-game tear, racking up 15 catches, 301 yards, and two scores between weeks six through eight. Once defenses focused on Avery, his production dropped. This year Avery will team with promising second-year receiver Keenan Burton and new acquisition Laurent Robinson, but neither have proven themselves to opposing defenses. Throw in change in approach to a run-heavy offense and I think Avery's numbers improve, but he'll need the offense to click, Bulger to stay healthy, and both Burton and Robinson to make strides to produce better than a No. 3 fantasy receiver.

Ted Ginn, Jr, Dolphins: Ginn had a nice second year in Miami and the Dolphins brass has made it public that they expect him to work hard to further improve his game. One of the reasons is Ginn's final third of the '08 season was not as good as the second third. He has to improve as a technician of the position in order to exploit his vast athleticism and skills after the catch. Miami's offense generates big plays from its ground game and Ginn needs to become more consistent catching the ball with his hands. He's an intriguing player because he can make tough catches in traffic despite bad hands technique and it's just unusual to see a body catcher have great success in the modern era. The jury is still out on Ginn, but if he improves his routes he could make a serious jump. I believe the odds are against Ginn to develop into an elite receiver, but I subscribe to the idea that you can outwork talent. We'll find out if Ginn has done the work.

Anthony Gonzalez, Colts: Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are options A and B with Peyton Manning, but Gonzalez benefits from the Colts' parting of ways with Marvin Harrison. A good route runner with deceptive speed, Gonzalez is a player who should grow with Manning during the offseason. Last year, the presence of Harrison and Manning's inability to practice during the preseason due to his knee surgery had a negative impact on Gonzalez's progress from year one to year two. This year, the potential obstacle might be BYU rookie Austin Collie, who is very similar to Gonzalez in style. Collie has excellent quickness and maybe the best hands of his rookie class at the position. He's also a hard worker who would routinely have late night workout and practice sessions with BYU QB Max Hall. Look for Manning to return to form and Gonzalez as one of the consistent beneficiaries, but if you're expecting him to turn the corner with Wayne, Clark, Addai, Brown, and Collie as viable options then I think you're expecting too much.

Jerricho Cotchery, Jets: Cotchery is an excellent young receiver with T.J. Houshmandzadeh-type skills, but his success will depend wholly on his quarterback(s). If Mark Sanchez has a Matt Ryan-like rookie year, Cotchery could be an 1100-yard receiver, especially if a second option like David Clowney makes good on his preseason promise of 2008. Another situation or things work out and they acquire Plaxico Burress. But as much as QB production is an unknown at this time, Cotchery's downside is not as bad as that of the receivers he's ahead of. Even if the Jets' passing game never makes it to peak altitude, Cotchery should be good for 700-900 yards and a few scores.

Mark Clayton, Ravens: After not improving on his 67-catch, 939-yard, five-score season in 2006, most fantasy owners have given up on Mark Clayton. The Ravens receiver has been slowed by injuries and poor quarterback play and I think it's these two factors that contribute so much to the volatility of rankings each year. Key players get hurt and offenses go downhill and then they rebound the next year or two to three years later and the "this year" mentality of the media and fans don't focus on this perspective until it makes a heartwarming story.

Clayton seemed to flourish in the second half of 2008 under the strong-armed Joe Flacco, averaging 8.24 fantasy points per game during that stretch - a 46% increase from the beginning of the year. What should encourage those interested in Clayton's prospects is the fact Baltimore did not address this position in the draft. The most promising player they acquired at the position is undrafted rookie Erron Riley, a speedster out of Duke who I expect to develop, but not right away. Clayton is in a good situation to return to his 2006 form because of a strong ground game, and veterans Todd Heap and Derrick Mason. Clayton is a boom-bust pick in 2009 that may not even get drafted in some leagues, but if he's going to fulfill his potential this is his last big chance to do it. The Ravens have all the pieces in place to make a Super Bowl run and if Joe Flacco improves in year two, then Clayton could exceed ins 2006 stats and finally become the player they expected him to be when they drafted him.

Bernard Berrian, Vikings: Berrian's stats from 2008 make him look like a dangerous pick here, because receivers with high yardage totals on a small amount of catches tend to bust in subsequent seasons. A great example was former Houston Oiler Chris Sanders, the former Ohio State receiver who averaged an incredible, 23.5 yards per catch on 35 receptions in 1995, but never fulfilled his great promise due to the fact he was a one-route type of receiver. But this isn't a Chris Sanders situation; we've seen Berrian steadily improve each year and in 2009 he should finally get help with rookie Percy Harvin in the fold. The Florida rookie should make it far more difficult for teams to key on any one player consistently and this should make Berrian a more consistent producer. Another positive is the addition of Texans quarterback Sage Rosenfels, who has shown he can scan the field and not just a quadrant of it (Tarvaris Jackson). I think Harvin could actually limit Berrian's potential for breakout productivity, but not enough to prevent owners from considering Berrian as a potential No. 2 fantasy option for their receiving corps.

Marquee Talents (Top 15)

Eddie Royal, Broncos: Brandon Marshall is recovering from hip surgery and the starting QB battle is between Kyle Orton and Chris Simms. The most reliable option for them at this point might be Royal, a precise route runner who had six big games as a rookie. If new coach Josh McDaniels converts Denver's offense to a recent version of the Patriots offense, Royal will be the prime candidate for the Wes Welker role. This will greatly increase his likelihood for another high-target/high production season. If not, Royal has still proven versatile enough to be threat anywhere on the field. The loss of Jay Cutler makes him a bigger risk to as a breakout player, but this team's defense is still a weakness on paper and that means Denver will still need to throw the ball more than they would like. Still, a 91-catch season as a rookie is difficult to downplay.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Jackson has the individual talent and the surrounding talent to breakout in 2009. Like Royal, he's both a dangerous run after the catch receiver and speedy deep threat. He's also a decent route runner for this early stage of his career. He understands how to generate separation from his breaks and he will catch the ball in traffic, although it's probably not where the Eagles consistently want him to operate. With Donovan McNabb running the offense and Brian Westbrook as the player opposing defenses will key on, Jackson will be the player that will be counted on to exploit defenses for their focus on the Eagles RB. Throw in rookie Jeremy Maclin, and veterans Jason Avant, Reggie Brown, and Kevin Curtis and Jackson has enough support to be a 75- or 80- reception receiver in this offense.

Don't Snooze on These Guys

These receivers didn't meet the stat profile, but I believe you should keep them in mind on draft day in order of most likely to least likely to have a fantasy impact.

Steve Smith, Giants: The former USC Trojan has earned more trust from Eli Manning than any receiver currently on the Giants roster. The Browns valued him enough to want him as part of a deal for Braylon Edwards, but the Giants nixed that offer. Smith's greatest asset his ability to catch the ball in traffic, take the hit, and hold onto the football. One of the toughest routes in football is the skinny post. It requires great timing with the quarterback, enough speed to get into the intermediate area of the field, and the concentration and toughness to hold onto the football. This route is usually run with a safety looming over top to deliver the punishment as the receiver makes the catch and either a cornerback or linebacker in tight trail position. This route and the deep, in-cut are the most frequent reasons why receivers are the meat in collision sandwiches. Smith has the courage and skill to make these catches. He's more Derrick Mason quick than Steve Smith (Car) fast, but I believe we'll see Eli Manning throw more intermediate and deep routes to Smith with Plaxico Burress gone and rookie Hakeem Nicks in his rookie year. I expect at least an 800-yard season from Smith.

Mike Walker, Jaguars: Brandon Marshall was the more physically talented University of Central Florida receiver, but Walker, the better overall receiver, wasn't that far behind in terms of speed and size. Walker's career has been beset by obstacles that have included a slow-recovering ACL tear that he played on as a senior but was still balky in his first training camp with the Jaguars and re-aggravated against the Redskins in the last preseason game of 2007. In 2008, he seemed to turn a corner with a five-reception, 46-yard effort against Houston and a six-catch, 107-yard night versus Pittsburgh. He then sprained the MCL in his right knee late in the game and developed a staph infection in the joint missing four games. To make matters worse, his best friend was stabbed to death on Thanksgiving night and he was called to the scene to identify the body. Walker volunteered to pay for the funeral expenses because the mother of his friend didn't have the funds. And to top it off, on the day of the funeral his father died. These a rare extenuating circumstances for anyone trying to get off to a good start in their profession. I saw that Steelers' game last year and Walker looked every bit like the player he was at UCF; getting open over the middle and taking hits to make the catch, fast enough to get 20-30 yards downfield, and reliable hands. Fantasy owners will shy away from him, but he comes into camp slated as the starter opposite Torry Holt and the skills are there.

Limas Sweed, Steelers: He didn't do much his rookie season, but what he showed in the AFC Championship spoke highly of the direction I think he'll head. One of those plays was a spectacular drop on a deep ball. In a big game where it's tightly contested and Sweed could make a difference, he didn't come through. But Sweed didn't go into a shell. He caught two passes thrown his way for 20 yards, including a diving grab over the middle. At Texas, Sweed came through on the big stage as a freshman versus Ohio State late in the game. Although he'll be remembered for that dropped ball versus Baltimore by skeptics, Sweed showed me mental toughness to keep fighting. The fact that he's already off to a good start in minicamp is another good sign. Eventually Hines Ward will take a lesser role or retire and as good as Santonio Holmes looks at times, his off-field concerns might give Sweed an opportunity sooner than later. Even if Ward and Holmes are opening day starters, look for Sweed to see the field more often in his second year with Nate Washington and his 40 catches, 63 yards, and three scores now in Tennessee.

Davone Bess, Miami: He's such a sneaky good pick. Former Hawaii head coach June Jones said Bess reminds him of Andre Rison as a player; a big compliment for a '08 rookie who wasn't drafted. But Bess made a quick and lasting impression upon the Miami Dolphins coaching staff, making the team, and posting 554 yards on 54 catches. Rison was listed as 6-1, but that's a generous number. Bess might be 5-10 with the right pair of shoes. Like Rison, Bess is very good after the catch and he is capable of acrobatic grabs. I would not be at all surprised if Bess takes another step forward and puts pressure on Ted Ginn, Jr. at some point in their careers. Until that time, he's the slot guy potentially splitting time with Camarillo, but I believe he's still a ways from maximizing his potential as an NFL receiver because at Hawaii he only ran a certain number of routes from the spread offense and he's still learning the techniques of beating the jam and running pro style routes.

Keenan Burton, Rams: Burton did very little as a rookie, but look at his games and see if you notice what I did:

In four of these games he had some nice downfield plays. It's not a lot to look at, but he did show some skill at catching the ball in traffic downfield, which is a promising sign. Burton is a taller, lankier version of Bess. He's not as shifty as Bess, but he's faster. He'll be facing competition from Laurent Robinson, a favorite among many fantasy owners who have been reading his camp clippings since he was a rookie in Atlanta. He's probably the most unlikely candidate on this list, but worth knowing his name in case Avery and/or Robinson don't work out as expected.

Next week: I will begin a 4-week Rookie Impact Series by Skill Position, leading off with Quarterbacks.