The Gut Check Vol. 151 - RB Workloads and Rankings

  Posted 5/4 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Great Legs: What The Rockettes And The NFL Draft Have In Common

Admittedly I have vastly different reasons for why I like the legs of each subject in my title, but as fantasy GMs we're always looking for that next great pair of legs that is skilled enough to tote the rock at least 15 times per game; 240 times a season. It's because the career lifespan of a running back is generally short. Even when a runner has a longer than average career, it's rare for him to maintain top-tier, starter-quality production in fantasy leagues for more than three-to-five years. Those who can deliver at least 1300 yards for three seasons are among the most productive 175 backs in the history of the game. Considering there are at least 96 RBs on a depth chart every season and turnover is high, a career of 3900 yards is impressive. When a back has at least five years of production on this level, he's in the top 60 at his position of all-time.

You have to admit, being in the top three percent of more than 1700 runners since 1950 in rushing yards is extraordinary. Yet it's a league of extraordinary athletes and as fantasy owners we're looking for players who are able to sustain elite productivity from season to season. There comes a point when a runner attains a level of productivity in a season where it is human nature to fear that our future expectations for that player may be too high.

For years I have written a piece about RB workloads where I used a sum of attempts and receptions to determine a threshold. The number was 370 f-carries.

An f-carry is defined as 1 carry for every attempt and .5 carry for every reception.

f-carry = ([attempts]*1)+([receptions]*.5)

If a player's productivity crossed this line, there appeared to be a significant likelihood that the player had a strong decline in production the following season and often due to injury. Furthermore, that player's likelihood of coming close to this elite level of productivity was small. In other words, I was saying that once a player hit this threshold it signaled the beginning of the end for this player's fantasy stardom.

It seemed to make sense. From 2000-2007, here are the players who exceeded 370 f-carries:

RBs With 370+ f-carries From 2000-2007*

* No RB exceeded 370 f-carries in 2007.

Other than LaDainian Tomlinson and Edgerrin James, none of the backs on the list were able to repeat this level of production. Delving into the last 13 seasons, the evidence appeared even more compelling because of the 48 runners with at least 370 f-carries in a season, a significant majority saw a drop in productivity the following year.

The numbers appear to say that 34 of the 48 runners - a remarkable 70.8% - experienced at least a 21% decrease in productivity the following season. What that meant to me was that just less than a third of the backs would come close to repeating that initial high level of productivity and if you drafted a back with 370 f-carries from the year before you had a 70% chance of seeing that player have significant decline in production. The results indicated that player was overvalued.

But does this decline mean the player is useless? When looking at the average fantasy value for runners over that same period of time, backs with at least 300 fantasy points in a given year were no worse than the No. 4 back and more likely to finish as one of the top two in the league. Hypothetically, a drop of 10% or less would have kept them in the top five overall; a drop of 11%-20% kept them in the top eight; and a drop of 21%-30% kept them in the at least in the top 12 in all but one year and generally in the top nine.

Although the historical difference in value for running backs in the top 12 to top 24 has a greater drop off than other positions, an RB ranked in the top 12 in a 12-team league is usually going to be more valuable than all but maybe one or two receivers. It would take a 41%-50% drop-off from an elite year for a fantasy owner to even begin considering a WR over that player. Since nearly 69% of the runners in this sample experienced less than a 40% drop-off in the subsequent season, deciding not to draft the player at all is a mistake.

It's the same for the idea that once a player reaches that 370 f-carry threshold his future career productivity has grim prospects. The historical data consisting of 145 seasons after these 48 runners reached the threshold show that the RB might have had a peak year with 370 f-carries, but he is by no means ready to call it quits.

Knowing what we do about average value, 72% of the runners that saw their production decline from 300 to 200 in this 13-year period still have an average value within the 12th- to 15th-rankned players within their position. Although less than five percent of the sample attained 300 fantasy points again, 25% of the sample was actually ranked within the top 12-15. From the perspective of fantasy points, this might be a significant drop because the position has a greater range of productivity, but it doesn't make them nonstarters. Fortunately for me - and those who followed my columns on this topic before - circumstances in my favor prevented my ignorance from hurting our fantasy prospects because the players targeted in this analysis since 2003 suffered injuries causing them to miss significant time. Regrettably I even associated some of this data as a link to subsequent break down.

There is obviously anecdotal evidence that runners with high workloads get hurt the next year, but statistically one cannot prove it. What can be proven is what the Shark Pool message board has known for a couple of years now:

When a running back reaches the highest reaches of productivity in one season, there's a high probability that he will experience a downturn in production the next year. Not because he's breaking down, but because the high production was a rare feat. It means the higher the production, the greater the subsequent drop. This is known as regressing to the mean. But as I explained before, doesn't mean that player is doomed. An extremely well written statistical analysis is available here.

I'd like to thank the Shark Pool for showing me the error of my ways. It's one of the great things about belonging to a site such as Footballguys: you learn from other people. Obviously, I need to change my rankings, which you will likely see for my runners and overall by the time this column appears online. I intended my rankings to be a launching point for my discussion of the workload hypothesis and why we should be wary of Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner in 2009, but after a more careful review, I can't continue in that direction. In fact, I discovered evidence that may say not to worry about a significant regression for either player in 2009.

There are actually 33 runners who had 370 f-carries in a season. The number 48 was the number of seasons a runner exceeded the 370 f-carry threshold - and with Peterson and Turner surpassing it in 2008 that number of seasons is now 50. Since Peterson and Turner will get their chance in 2009, I removed from them from the total. Of those remaining 31 runners, 20 of them have yet to reach that level of productivity again, but 11 have repeated this feat and the list has some information worth considering.

• Players with more than one big year account for 63% of these high workload seasons.


• 73% of these players on this chart had their multiple big seasons back-to-back.


• 45% of these backs actually increased their fantasy point production the year after.


• The average point a RB on this list had a big year was at 2.5 years of experience (Exp).


• 18% of the backs on this list actually had more than two big years.


• The average point these three-plus, big-year backs experienced that third year was at year five.

These points actually makes it look favorable that Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner could be in for a repeat. Peterson was in his second season last year. When you examine the physical profile and running style of these players on the list, they are all after contact runners. Peterson and Turner. Turner was technically in his fifth season, which is the average point an RB who surpassed the 370 f-carry, threshold once in his career. A majority of the runners on this list started as rookies, but 13 of the 22 on the list of backs with only one season at this level or production didn't start as rookies. Anecdotal evidence? Possibly, but it is worth thinking about and I believe Matt Ryan will improve enough in year two that Turner makes a fine starter, but regresses to the bottom tier of No. 1 RBs.

One factor that could be either a positive or a negative is Peterson's insistence to add 12 pounds of muscle to his frame. Additional muscle in his core (thighs, back, abs and chest) could make him more explosive and durable. At the same time, it makes him less flexible and more prone to injury. In the end, I have to look to other backs that have been successful after adding additional weight such as Clinton Portis, Terrell Davis, Thomas Jones, Ricky Watters, and Ricky Williams. Plus, I have always thought Peterson was a special player in terms of his overall skill sets - potentially a once in an era kind of player. Michael Turner is a very good runner, but not on that level.

So I believe Turner's 2009 regression will be more significant and Peterson's production will likely remain similar to 2008.

Behind The Curtain: The Strategy Behind My RB Rankings

My initial rankings created discussion in the Shark Pool forum because of my initial perspective of Peterson and Turner, but there are also quite a few questions about several other runners I have ranked that differ significantly from convention. The same goes with other positions, but this week - for the sake of time and thoroughness - I will discuss my methodology for runners only. Next week, I'll talk about wide receivers.

The first thing I did to arrive at my 2009 RB list was to study the ranking trends from 2004-2008. I collected six forms of data:

• The turnover rate for the top 12
• The turnover for the top 24
• The percentage of rookies in the top 12
• The percentage of rookies in the top 24
• The percent of RBs with three straight years in the top 12
• The percent of RBs with three straight years in the top 24

Once I arrived at these numbers for three seasons I calculated the average for each criteria point and decided to use the results as the foundation for my positional rankings.

In my view, this data provides a convincing argument against excessive continuity from season to season when projecting performance. Based on these numbers, only five RBs finishing in the top 12 in 2008 will perform at the same level in 2009 and two of the new backs will be rookies. In the top 24, we should expect to see 13 runners from 2008 to make the top 24 in 2009 and we'll need to add a third rookie into the mix. Moreover, when deciding which players stay in the top 12-24, we see that over a three-year period, two runners maintained top-12 production and nearly six runners maintained top-24 production. The percent likelihood a player has more than three straight years of top-12 production is very low and makes a good knockout factor

Having these six parameters to formulate your top 24 forces you to make more difficult choices up front that during the season should pay off if you make the correct choices on draft day. The additional factors I use to complete this process include whether the runner is coming off a significant injury, if the player is coming off a heavy workload and on track to experience a statistical regression, and is another player in the equation to split time.

Based on these factors, here are the six, top-12 runners in 2008 that I bumped out of my 2009 rankings:

• Thomas Jones: Jones is not only expected to cede time to Leon Washington, but third round pick Shonn Greene has the skills to make this a three-back committee in 2009. The offensive line is still as strong as last year, but without a proven veteran it's difficult to imagine the Jets running game will be as effective.


• LaDainian Tomlinson: He has been a special back and one of the best of this era. Writers have been predicting his demise for a the past two seasons, but based on the fact he's already had three straight seasons in the top 12 and he has suffered a significant injury in consecutive seasons I find it hard to believe that Norv Turner will be able to back up his promise that Tomlinson sees an increased workload in 2009. Certainly he could do what Curtis Martin did and have a huge season later in his career, but if I have to follow historical averages with rankings, Tomlinson may see safe but I think he's a bigger risk as a top-12 RB than most expect.


• Brian Westbrook: One of my favorite players. He has proven his toughness and his versatile productivity, but like Tomlinson, he also has three straight seasons in the top 12 and he's coming off a leg injury. The addition of LeSean McCoy - a gifted runner who should be effective with limited appearances - will lighten Westbrook's workload. If it doesn't, Westbrook is at a similar point in his career as Tomlinson and the injuries may begin arriving at a more frequent rate.


• Steve Slaton: The Houston Texan is a candidate to move up my list when the preseason gets under way. For now, I'm skeptical the second-year back will get the same number of opportunities in 2009 despite the fact they didn't draft a back early to complement him. Head coach Gary Kubiak comes from the Shanahan School when picking runners. Remember, Slaton wasn't even a first-day pick. I believe rookie free agents Arian Foster and Jeremiah Johnson have the talent to contribute and the possibility remains they sign another back. When reviewing some of his games, there is no question Slaton made the necessary adjustments to be an effective pro set back, but he still lacked consistent skills to move the chains; generating plays from one extreme to the other. Because Slaton made the necessary adjustments as a rookie to perform with greater patience and technique, I'm going to pay special attention to his preseason and possibly make my own adjustments.


• Chris Johnson: What a year for Johnson in Tennessee. The ECU product demonstrated he could break arm tackles and finish runs with more power than many expected. But with the addition of rookie Javon Ringer and the subtraction of 20 pounds from LenDale White's midsection, Johnson should see a lighter workload. I know he looked great against Baltimore in the divisional playoffs, but he couldn't finish the game. The Titans addition of wide receiver Kenny Britt and TE-hybrid Jared Cook illustrates its understanding that they need to spread the ball around the field more efficiently. I expect Johnson to be a good starter, but never an elite performer for an entire season.


• Clinton Portis: The Redskins back has a remarkable career with four seasons with at least 1400 yards rushing and he'll still be two years from age 30 by the time the season begins. Although I think he's a better back than the Giants Brandon Jacobs, I think if I have to choose between the two today I'd go with the younger player and the better surrounding talent. Portis just misses the cut as a top-12 back.

Here are the seven backs I added to the Top 12

• Ronnie Brown: Bill Parcells liked what he saw from the Miami runner despite coming off an ACL tear suffered in 2007. Although Brown didn't even crack 1000 yards, his 916-yard, 10-score season was a good indication that bigger things should happen with two years removed from the surgery. Frank Gore, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Willis McGahee are backs that looked much better in year two after their ACL tears. It's also important to remember that Brown was on pace for a huge fantasy season in 2007 until he sustained the injury in week seven. Bill Parcells-inspired teams tend to make significant improvements between its first and second seasons and I expect the offensive line to really come together. The media is making a big story of the Wildcat offense and the drafting of Pat White, but don't expect significantly more use of his formation to the detriment of Brown. White will get some carries, but it won't be enough to cause concern. Despite its effectiveness, Brown is the most dangerous weapon Miami has in its arsenal. People are down on him because he only finished a full season once and that was under Parcells this year, but he has played at least 13 games in three of his first four years, averaging 4.4 yards per carry during this time. Remember, the average season those runners who get 370 f-carries for the only time in their career comes in season five. This is that year for Ronnie Brown and with a contract expiring he's playing for a new one.


• Steven Jackson: Jackson is also an injury-prone; only finishing a season once in a five-year career. Still, the Ram has four 1000-yard seasons and when he's on the field he's highly productive. St. Louis intends to change to a power offense and Jackson has already demonstrated he can produce at a high level without a great line ahead of him. Jackson already had a 370 f-carry season once, but the average point a runner experiences it a second time is either season four or season five. Jackson is close enough at this stage of his career where it could happen.


• Ryan Grant: I'm not a huge fan, but Grant had some strong moments in 2008 despite a slow start in the first month, coming off a summer hold out. What I like most is Grant's situation. He's a young back, on paper he doesn't have stiff competition for the job, and he's surrounded by a strong passing game. He also finished the season better than he started and unless Kregg Lumpkin returns to his prep school form, Grant has little competition and a lot of upside for 2009 on what could be a balanced offense.


• Brandon Jacobs: The Giants lose Derrick Ward in the offseason, but draft big back Andre Brown of NC State to fill that void. I think it will take some time for Brown to be marginally effective as a committee back so that means Jacobs and Bradshaw will see more of the carries than they did as a threesome. A big, bruising runner like Jacobs worries me that he takes more hits and gets hurt that the average runner, but he's entering the prime of his career and the loss of Burress will require a greater commitment to the ground game.


• Frank Gore: Like Jackson, Gore has a huge, second season and then fell back to earth due to line woes and identity crises for the offense. Now that head coach Mike Singletary as the reins, look for this team to pound the rock - Crabtree or not. Despite all the hype surrounding Alabama back Glenn Coffee, the rookie has a knack for turning potential five-yard runs into 3-yarders. Gore should remain the main cog in the Niners offense.


• Knowshon Moreno: The kid from New Jersey by way of Athens, Georgia has the best vision in this draft class and will get a chance to start right away for the Denver Broncos. He's a physical, versatile, and quick player who I think is the best bet to produce as a rookie.


• Donald Brown: The Connecticut product plays on a prolific offense. Although he'll have to split time with Addai to begin the season, he has the big-play ability to be rewarded a majority of the carries if he produces as expected. Chris Wells made my top 24, but I believe Indianapolis thrives more off the running game and has experienced more success with it in recent years than the Cardinals, who arguably picked a better player have been very much a pass-first offensive unit.

Quick Shots

These are players in the top 24 who I'll offer a brief explanation and likely more detail this summer.

• Rashard Mendenhall: The Steelers 2008 first round pick wasn't selected to sit on the bench. Pittsburgh is one of those old school organizations that will keep an expensive player on the bench if he's not performing, but to write off a strong college prospect because he had a slow start to camp, fumbling issues, and broken shoulder is not sound judgment. Neither is harping on Mendenhall's trash-talking before the Monday night game he hurt his shoulder. Mendenhall's combination of size and speed makes him a perfect fit for a rough and tough Steelers offense and the team will give him every opportunity to unseat Willie Parker this year. Unless he's a complete bust, Mendenhall should see a significant split of the carries and produce like a starter - especially at the goal line where he'll be Pittsburgh's more dynamic LenDale White to Willie Parker's less dynamic Chris Johnson.


• Larry Johnson: Other than Javarris Williams, the depth chart looks the same in Kansas City after the 2009 NFL Draft. Larry Johnson will be doing his best to right the ship in this town because it has been made clear to this intelligent but troubled runner that one more slip-up will likely prevent him from ever having a shot to start elsewhere. Look for Johnson to experience a minor renaissance because he has something to prove. Jamal Charles is skill much like LeSean McCoy (but with better speed), but he needs to become more patient.


• Marshawn Lynch: The third-year Bill drops for a few reasons. The first is his three-game suspension due to drug use and it occurs to begin the year so there's a great chance he gets off to a slow start much like Ryan Grant did in 2008 due his camp hold out. The addition of Terrell Owens, Shawn Nelson and Dominic Rhodes will also mean a lighter workload, which may help the team but not Lynch's numbers.

Next week, I'll discuss my wide receiver rankings and profile some breakout candidates at the position.