The Weekly Gut Check Vol. 150 - Sleepers and Breakouts 2008 Second-Half Wonders

  Posted 4/24 by Matt Waldman, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

New Digs, Same Dude

It's weird to say I'm the new guy, especially when this is my sixth year and column number 150. Those of you who have followed my move to Footballguys.com know what I'm about, but there are a lot of you reading this column for the first time. I'll explain my approach so you know where I'm often coming from.

I like risk. There's nothing more personally gratifying as a fantasy owner than to win and do it taking a chance. It could come from reaching a little bit on that sleeper, using a new approach that differs from the norm, or unearthing a trend others haven't recognized. Fantasy football has its share of proven strategies and as a writer I will cover many of them. But I also like to push the envelope and experiment with ideas that differ from convention, because in the years since I began playing this game the average fantasy owner is far savvier and "conventional wisdom" can become an oxymoron when everyone is taking a similar approach. When I explore potential sleepers, test new strategies, and question established guidelines I want you to benefit - either by using my method or running the opposite direction.

One example, which I'll touch upon throughout the preseason, will be my 2009 rankings on the site. With each passing year I see similar rankings from analysts that are based on performance from the previous season. I'm not berating it; I generally take the same approach because it's a sound, conservative strategy for fantasy owners. But I wanted to take a more dramatic departure for some time.

Now that I am one of several writers at this site ranking players, I'm making the conscious choice to provide rankings that are meant to be high-risk, high-reward. I want to offer a stark contrast to the groupthink when I feel I can make a good argument to do so. Based on what I have studied about a player's annual performance over a three-year period, I'd rather take the risk to project off the trends in addition to player's season stats from the previous year. Next week's column will have a more detailed explanation of my rankings process at this stage of the season.

I've been a fan of Footballguys.com since 1999. I believe Footballguys.com is a natural fit for The Weekly Gut Check. I hope if you think so, that you feel free to let me know with your comments, questions, or suggestions. On to this week's topic...

Second-Half Wonders

One of the more compelling ways to identify players on the rise is to find guys who have a significantly stronger second-half performance for the previous season compared to the first half. I call these sleeper and breakout candidates Second-Half Wonders. Here's the methodology:

• I measure the player's Fpts/Gm for their first eight and last eight games.
• I calculate that player's percent increase in production during his second half of the season compared to the first.
• If that player's productivity increases at least 20% during his second half, he's a potential Second-Half Wonder.

The players who aren't established starters until the second half of a season tend to have closer to a 40% increase in productivity. Although Kurt Warner, Justin Gage, and Lee Evans were good examples of successful '08 performers after qualifying as a 2007 Second-Half Wonder, last year didn't have the best guys. I'm a believer that the math involved with discovering these players will yield some worthwhile candidates, but narrowing down the pool to the best bets takes analysis beyond the stats.

Before I show the 2008 Second Half Wonders who owners should monitor in the '09 preseason, here's a historical look at Second-Half Wonders by position:

Second-Half Wonders at WR And The Subsequent Season

Over a five-year period, it's clear that a WR qualifying as a Second-Half Wonder tends to have a strong average increase (50%) in productivity. The important part is that in the subsequent year he retains that value on average pretty well (86%). Looking at the individual players on this list it's obvious that not all the players are successful the following year. But I'd say that number is limited to five players in five years; three of them from 2008 alone (and two of those players were injured).

If there is one position to monitor players with strong second-half production, it is wide receiver. When looking only at Second-Half Wonders who start the subsequent year, the average receiver who met these conditions had a fantasy point average equal to production of the top 15 receivers by average points per game in 2008. In most years, a top-15 showing is a breakout season for an unproven receiver. This makes Second Half Wonders at WR a good thing to monitor in both re-draft and dynasty leagues.

The five-year history for runners that are Second Half Wonders isn't too shabby, either:

Second-Half Wonders at RB And The Subsequent Season

Although the total sample size doesn't have a strong retention of fantasy points (52%) from that previous season's second half, the average player who has a strong second half and starts the following year has a much better track record. The average Fpts/Gm for a Second-Half Wonder who started the next year would have him ranked among the top 15 backs in points per game average in 2008. Clearly some of the players were already recognized as No. 2 fantasy backs, but this analysis should help you validate that ranking for a player if not find potential value for a less proven player getting his first real chance to start.

I went back six years to get a similar sample size for an analysis of tight ends that qualified as Second-Half Wonders:

Second-Half Wonders at TE And The Subsequent Season

Although most tight ends aren't big-time producers in the average fantasy league, knowing that you can get the Fpts/Gm equivalent of a starter from the average Second-Half Wonder TE who earns a starting role the following season validates the perspective a fantasy owner should have about the position. Unless you get one of the top three or four starters you might do well enough to take a chance on an up and coming player available later.

Last year was a dog for Second-Half Wonders at QB. Four of the six players who qualified for the 2007 performance either got hurt or benched in 2008. Since 2002, the overall numbers illustrate that a QB with a strong second half is a safe bet to perform like a quality starter the following year.

Second-Half Wonders at QB And The Subsequent Season

Over a five-year period a Second-Half Wonder at QB that started the next season had a fantasy points per game average (18.6) on par with the eighth-ranked starter in 2008. Several of these players were values heading into the year after their second-half performances.

2008 Second Half Wonders at QB

There are seven out of nine players listed here who qualify, but I am including Daunte Culpepper and Brady Quinn because they got significant playing time in 2008. There's a good shot they'll see even more time in 2009. Culpepper has reported for the 2009 season in much better shape. Even if Detroit drafts Matthew Stafford, it is possible they sit the junior a year. Although the more likely scenario is that Stafford starts immediately, Culpepper could be asked to take over if the rookie falters. Quinn has been the subject of pre-draft trade rumors, but if he stays in Cleveland he has a good chance to be a permanent starter very soon. Shaun Hill should also be lumped with these two quarterbacks because he only started one game in the first half of the season. Quinn obviously has the most dynasty value, but Culpepper and Hill make nice handcuffs for deep-roster teams if the Lions and 49ers draft quarterbacks.

Although he has incrementally improved as a quarterback and had nice moments in 2008, Seneca Wallace is likely an afterthought. Matt Hasselbeck may be completely recovered, but back injuries are rarely a one-time event. This makes Wallace a quality waiver wire option in dynasty leagues where most young players with starting promise are already rostered. Tyler Thigpen also qualifies as a decent fantasy option if Matt Cassel's success turns out to be more Patriots-driven than skill-driven. For a first-time starter, Thigpen did a great job down the stretch. But his performance with the Chiefs only supports the argument that Cassel has enough talent in Kansas City to make a lot from his new opportunity.

Jeff Garcia is a curious case because at this stage of his career, he is still everything JaMarcus Russell isn't as a starter. If the Raiders offense begins to match the defense and the coaching staff concludes Russell is holding them back from contention, its possible Garcia gets the nod mid-season. I know it seems unlikely the Raiders will contend, but we see dramatic changes in team play every year. That said, I wouldn't expect much from this passing game unless Oakland's young receivers have developed by leaps and bounds. Kerry Collins from a production standpoint is "Garcia-plus" this season. The only way he makes it to fantasy starter status is if they acquire a big-name receiver.

Strictly speaking from the standpoint of fantasy points per game, Tarvaris Jackson looks like a great 2009 breakout candidate. With the support of a great running game and strong defense, a quarterback with second half stats like Jackson's is promising. But Jackson hasn't demonstrated the skills you want from a solid starting quarterback; he's still staring down receivers and only reading throwing to one quadrant of the field. With Sage Rosenfels in the fold, Jackson will need to dramatically outplay the former Texan to see the field on opening day. If thrust into action, he might be a surprisingly good waiver wire option, because too much was expected from him too early and as long as he's working hard, he still can develop into a reasonably good back up.

The clear-cut breakout candidate is Kansas City's Matt Cassel and he's the Susan Boyle of dynasty leagues in 2009 because like Boyle he came out of nowhere and only got better. His 45% increase in fantasy production during the second half of 2008 is the story, especially for a guy who didn't see live bullets since high school. Most of us have heard that Cassel was the early candidate to succeed Carson Palmer as USC, but before Matt Leinart eventually got the nod. So the talent has always been there, it's just a most unusual situation to play out as it did. The Chiefs have the components to be a decent offense. Dwayne Bowe is a borderline Pro Bowl talent, Tony Gonzalez is still one of the best three pass-catching tight ends in the game, and Larry Johnson has enough gas in the tank to keep defenses honest. The midseason emergence of former Bear, Mark Bradley solidified the receiving corps. They might need one more weapon on the outside to give Cassel a shot at producing like he did in the second half of 2008 as a Pat, but if he even retains 75% of his second half production we're looking at starting-quality production. It's no wonder he'll be a favorite sleeper and heavily debated player this preseason.

2008 Second Half Wonders at RB

The list of runners is pretty long for 2008, but there are storylines behind the numbers that require more categorization to narrow the list:

• Super Subs: Pierre Thomas, Fred Jackson, LaMont Jordan, Tashard Choice, Darren Sproles, Dominic Rhodes, and Peyton Hillis are all backs that saw significant time due to the injury of a starter. Other than potentially Jordan and Hillis, none of these backs are projected starters heading into the 2009 season. Both have the talent and versatility to produce if called upon and are cheaper dynasty and redraft options. Jackson appeared to be the one player who will see his value increase temporarily with Lynch suspended for the first three games of the season. But with Dominic Rhodes recently signed as a Bill, anticipate a time-share until Lunch returns. If you're looking for depth, these five players are excellent picks in the second half of a draft in most leagues. Notice I didn't talk about Darren Sproles and that's because I envision him transitioning to the next category...
• Time Shares: Ricky Williams, Leon Washington, Fred Taylor, Chester Taylor, and DeShaun Foster had specific roles with their teams and performed well enough in the second half to demonstrate what they could do as starters in the short term if something happened to the main man. They are each capable of big games at least three to five times a season and make solid bye week options in deep leagues or a league with more than 12 teams. I think Williams will cede more time to Ronnie Brown if the trade rumors involving the former Auburn runner prove false. Brown will be nearly two years removed from his ACL tear and I anticipate he'll be a very good fantasy option in 2009. Washington should get a little more time at the expense of Thomas Jones. I think Fred Taylor serves as a good role model for Lawrence Maroney; Chester Taylor's role stays the same; and it's likely DeShaun Foster's role is similar in San Francisco.
• Rehabbed and Ready: Ryan Grant and Justin Fargas are players who were dinged to begin the season, but got better as the year progressed. Personally, I avoided Grant like the plague in '08 drafts due to the holdout and the Favre trade. He was too risky for his ADP - even for a risk-taker - but he did end the season strong. Aaron Rodgers demonstrated the offense should be in good hands in '09. I'm not convinced Grant is a long-term factor in Green Bay, but he's good enough to be a productive fantasy starter once again. Fargas is not as powerful as Michael Bush could be, but he runs with better pad level. He also not as big of a play threat as Darren McFadden could be, but right now Fargas has enough of both of his competitors' skill sets to be the best all-around runner on the depth chart. One player, whose '08 second half just missed the cut, but deserves mentioning here is Steven Jackson. We all know the Rams starter as the talent and skill in the tank to be one of the five best backs in the league. St. Louis has made the point that they will be emphasizing the run in '09, but as funny as it is to look at a bruiser of a guy like Jackson and call him brittle, it's hard for some owners to pull the trigger on him. In many drafts he'll likely be undervalued just enough to make it worthwhile - especially auction leagues where his price should remain relatively low to his potential. I don't count on any of these guys taking the league by storm, but they should fulfill expectations consistent with what they have done in the past - with Jackson as the possible exception.

That leaves us with eight players I see as true candidates to make a significant impact, that I have placed in order of expected production.

Cedric Benson: I've never been crazy about Benson, but like Thomas Jones, Tiki Barber, and Garrison Hearst, it's possible this highly regarded prospect finally learns what it takes to maximize his potential. Cincinnati will need more balance on offense to compete, something they figured out when Chad Ochocinco was playing much of the year with one arm and half a heart.

Le'Ron McClain: McClain might seem like a one-year wonder to some, especially with rookie Ray Rice improving down the stretch. I'm inclined to think this way, but I think the Alabama alum will get first-dibs at the opportunity to start and the Ravens like power football. The most likely scenario is another three-way that isn't fantasy friendly.

Thomas Jones: Thomas Jones is likely to cede more time to Leon Washington. Washington is a better big-play threat and continues to earn more opportunities with his play. The amount of running room Jones sees will have a lot to do with the new Jets' starting QB proving to defenses that he can beat them at any time. The Jets have a good offensive line, but poor quarterback play can negate that fact. Be careful.

Brandon Jacobs: Brandon Jacobs is a runner I enjoy watching, but I still think he'll be a part of a committee approach with Bradshaw and either Danny Ware or a rookie in the mix. Jacobs is money when he's healthy, but he's already been dinged up a little too often for me to be confident in him as even a 12-game per year starter. I think pad level is an important technique for runners, and it's difficult for a back of his size to consistently maintain that pad level. In my eyes this makes him a higher risk No. 1 RB in redraft leagues.

Kevin Smith: I think the player with the most upside on this list is the Lions' Kevin Smith. Despite Detroit putting Jon Kitna on IR and the trading Roy Williams, he continued to improve as the season progressed, holding off Rudi Johnson in the process. Maybe that's like saying Gregory Hines held off the guy in cow suit and the sandwich board in front of Ryan's Steakhouse in a dance contest, but I'm no less enthused about Smith than I was his rookie year. He should be a quality No. 2 runner available in many leagues where most No. 2 backs are gone. He's a hard worker and a smooth runner and I expect him to continue to improve.

Michael Turner: Turner's performance may not have been expected last year in Atlanta, but had nothing to do with his talent. What's especially impressive about last season was that Turner's production increased nearly 30% over the last half of the year despite going over 370 touches. His touch-count and the likelihood that his numbers regress in '09 concern me but if a previous season's workload doesn't matter to you, then he's certainly earned a place as a top-tier back in drafts this summer. This is a player I'm likely to go against the grain this year. Despite the workload he has fresh legs sitting behind LaDainian Tomlinson, but I expect him to regress statistically and I'm a believer in the theory that there is something to exceeding that 370-touch workload figure.

DeAngelo Williams: Many owners had written off DeAngelo Williams at this time last year, but even with an impressive Jonathan Stewart on board, Williams showed the league and fans that he's one of the best young backs in the league. He had 993 yards on 153 touches in the final eight games - that's 88 more yards on 48 fewer carries than Michael Turner over the same period. I expect Stewart to get more carries and Williams' numbers to regress, but Might Mouse should be good for another 1200-1300 yards in '09. Frankly, I'm a believer in the theory that backs with speed, agility, and a low center of gravity are more likely to produce at a consistently high rate. I'll explain this in subsequent columns, but until then just remember that Williams had great year without a huge workload - a nice indication that he should be good to go in '09.

Maurice Jones-Drew: He has a lot of owners divided on his capability of being a stud. He's had two top-12 seasons in three years, but his unconventional frame concerns some fantasy owners that he can't be more than a committee back who gets 35%-40% of the carries. As you can see I'm not one of them. Jones-Drew's numbers weren't as impressive as Williams or Turner, but he played behind an offensive line that was decimated by injuries and tragedy - and this happened before they could even finish September. This just wasn't the same team, but Jones-Drew managed to compile 1389 yards from scrimmage with 14 scores while splitting time with Fred Taylor.

There are some owners who haven't given up on Greg Jones' potential and a few USC fans who think Chauncey Washington has potential, but these two guys aren't close to the same player as Fred Taylor, one of the most under appreciated talents at the position. With a healthy line and a receiving corps that has purged its "characters" in favor of character, I believe Jones-Drew is primed for a big year. Taylor had 556 yards on the ground in 2008 and I think Jones-Drew add 400 of those yards to what he did last year just due to the fact that he'll stay on the field more often and get a chance to stay in a rhythm. This alone should yield bigger plays. The addition of Torry Holt with his reliable routes and hands should help the Jaguars move the chains and that keeps the offense in favorable situations to run the football.

I have always seen Jones-Drew as a player with more upside than Brian Westbrook, because his core strength is much greater. He's built like a 5-10, 220-lb back with great agility that got put in a car crusher. You don't use a back of his dimensions in goal line situations like Jacksonville has unless you have seen him demonstrate power. You also don't reward him with a big payday unless you believe he's the guy you plan to ride into contention, something the Jags did in April.

2008 Second Half Wonders at WR

Like the runners, receivers had a large group of candidates. But several of them are depth chart players who contribute to NFL offenses, yet won't be more than fantasy reserves in 2009: Dennis Northcutt, Harry Douglas, Jabar Gaffney, Jason Avant, Chris Henry, Josh Reed, Chaz Schilens, Johnnie Lee Higgins, and Steve Johnson. I believe Douglas, Higgins, and Johnson are players to monitor in dynasty leagues because they have a knack for making big plays. Higgins and Johnson may have the most upside for different reasons. Higgins is a very good runner after the catch and was underrated as a receiver at UTEP. He's capable of being an 800-yard receiver in the Raiders offense if everything works out. In leagues where individual players get points for special teams, Higgins is quite valuable. Schilens is intriguing, but it's likely the Raiders will draft a receiver or two who will be seen as future starters. As always, Chris Henry has the talent to be a fantasy starter, the maturity remains a question mark. His opportunity will also depend on Coles' health and whether the Bengals need to trade Chad Ochocinco because they're quickly running out of paper products in the locker room and the expenditures for tissues has impacted their scouting budget.

Steve Johnson is a player well documented by the great Draft Guys TV trio of Cecil Lammey, Sigmund Bloom, and Marc Faletti. Check out the video here. With James Hardy getting moved behind Terrell Owens in the off-season and Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed best used in the slot, Johnson is logically the best candidate to get an opportunity to start even if the Bills draft a receiver. His athleticism, work ethic, and hands make him a nice long-term prospect and I expect him to develop into a surprise starter within a few years, possibly earlier.

Other players we don't really need to discuss in depth include Terrell Owens, Marques Colston, or Antonio Bryant. These three receivers each have potential issues, but they have all proven they can be big-time producers in the NFL under the right conditions. Wes Welker, Justin Gage, Lance Moore, and Deion Branch may not be stud material, but they have also done enough to prove their worth and are capable fantasy starters.

Up and Comers

Mark Bradley: Bradley's best game last year was a nine-reception, 81-yard effort with a touchdown against the Chargers. He'll need to have that kind of effort 10 games per year to be considered a strong starter. But here's the thing: at this time last year in Kansas City, the players in the conversation for the No. 2 WR spot were Devard Darling and rookies Jeff Webb and Will Franklin. A year later, Franklin has been waived, Webb was offered a one-year deal (a typical scenario for a player the organization presumes will be depth but want one more chance to see if he can do something more interesting), and Darling remains the same tease he was in Baltimore. Bradley has a firm hold on the No. 2 post heading into training camp. He flashed enough speed to get behind defenders and he's finally healthy. It's unrealistic to expect a 1000-yard season from Bradley in '09, but I believe he delivers more starter-worth performances will be a quality reserve.

Josh Morgan: Morgan only caught passes in nine games last year, but in three of them he had at least 11 fantasy points and he scored a touchdown in two of the three games where he caught at least three passes. Physically, he has the most upside of any receiver mentioned here, but he's still raw and the quarterback situation and offense is still in flux. I expect him to get better, but he'll need to be more than a one-trick pony (deep routes) to achieve fantasy-friendly consistency in 2009.

Ted Ginn, Jr.: Like Clayton, Ginn had four games with at least 12 fantasy points from weeks 9-17. He also meets the statistical profile I used for determining a WR breakout candidate (more in a future column) and did this without a strong running mate on the other side of the formation. Predictably, a Bill Parcells-influenced coaching staff is not lauding Ginn for his second-year improvement, but it's also a good sign they expect more, because he is a great athletic talent still learning the details of his position. One of the things I disliked about Ginn as a prospect was his tendency to catch the ball with his body, but I have to give him credit for his ability to hang onto passes in the thick of coverage despite a lack of good hands technique. It's difficult for receivers to improve as hand catchers when they have this bad habit, which is why I believe Mark Clayton has the chance to be a better fantasy option. Still, I wouldn't count Ginn out; I just think people are a little too excited about his potential.

Mark Clayton: Bradley's former running mate at OU has disappointed fantasy owners after a promising sophomore effort with the Ravens. Injuries and inconsistent quarterback play are partially responsible for Clayton not fulfilling his potential. In '08 Clayton got healthy enough to turn it up a notch, posting four games with at least 12 fantasy points from weeks 9-17 with a rookie quarterback. This is a pivotal year for Clayton to show he's a player the Ravens want to reinvest in their commitment in him. He has demonstrated the talent to be a viable deep threat, and his skills after the catch are impressive. He and Joe Flacco should be a good match because the second-year QB likes to go downfield and isn't afraid to put the ball in the air and let his receiver fight for it. Clayton may not get the press Ted Ginn and Josh Morgan will get this summer, but I think he has a good chance to meet or exceed their '09 stats.

2008 Second Half Wonders at TE

I don't need to say much about Kellen Winslow Jr., Todd Heap, Tony Gonzalez, or Heath Miller. All four have proven their skills and this column is devoted to sleepers and breakouts. These guys won't sneak up on anyone. There are four other players listed at the beginning of this table that aren't technically Second Half Wonders, but worth mentioning if you play in deeper leagues and need to become familiar with players on the waiver wire. Darcy Johnson and Joey Haynos aren't likely to win any starting jobs soon, but both filled in admirably when called upon. Johnson has enough talent to be a fantasy starter and has pushed the slow developing, Vernon Davis in San Francisco.

Joey Haynos, a rookie out of Maryland, has great size and good hands to be an every down TE. He was originally a free agent invited to the Packers' camp, but found his way to Miami and I wouldn't be surprised if he sticks for a while because of his skill as an in-line blocker. Neither is anything more than waiver wire material to monitor on occasion.

Jermichael Finley and Anthony Fasano are a different story. Finley will get a chance to prove he can develop into a starter in a prolific offense. He has the natural skills to be a nice short-range option, but I thought coming out of Texas he was a bit more limited athletically than others thought. I expect Finley to make strides, but I don't see him becoming a fantasy starter this year. He's a buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues around midseason if he's still behind Donald Lee at that point.

Anthony Fasano was the No. 13 TE in total fantasy points in '08, but he had what I call a bookend season - he started and finished the season with excellent production, but not much in between. It's pretty obvious Sparano and Parcells knew what they were getting from the player they originally drafted in Dallas. He's not elite in any one area, but he's a workmanlike player who will mesh well with Chad Pennington. I only expect Fasano to improve and crack the top 12 in '09.

Breaking Out or Completely Broken?

This is the question when it comes to players with teasing physical skills who haven't put it together: Daniel Graham, Vernon Davis, Donald Lee, and Ben Watson. At this point, Graham and Lee are situational players capable of delivering a good performance, but are seen as quality depth. They are top of the line fantasy free agents at best. Watson and Davis should be far better at this point of their careers. Watson has been unable to stay healthy or deliver consistently when he's on the field. He's been slowly phased out of the game plan as a relied upon option in the passing game.

Vernon Davis appeared to make a better effort after 49ers coach Mike Singletary kicked Davis off the field and then dropped his drawers in the locker room, but the result was only a modest up-tick in fantasy point production. Percentage wise, it was worthwhile to list Davis here, but he will need to do a lot more to fulfill the promise that several have already soured on. Coach Singletary may think he has to go Full Monty to motivate Davis at his rate. All jokes aside, I think Davis finally got the message because this is probably the first time a coach hasn't treated him with kid gloves. But it doesn't mean I'm going to take the chance on him as my first tight end off the board in the later rounds. The only way I change my mind on him is if reports surface that he has dramatically improved his routes.

Breakout Candidates Du Jour

Dustin Keller: Physically, Keller is an excellent candidate to become a valuable starter at his position. His speed and skills after the catch are good enough for him to become a primary weapon in the Jets offense. The question mark will be at quarterback. If Keller can develop a quick rapport with Brett Favre's replacement, he has a chance to at least pick up some of the slack left behind with the loss of Laveranues Coles. He's much more of a risk-reward prospect this year than Carlson, but a nice commodity in dynasty leagues.

John Carlson: The Seahawks rookie was the seventh ranked fantasy tight end in 2008, but there are several question marks to consider. He was the most consistent component of the Seattle passing game, but it was partially due to a receiving corps decimated by injuries. Carlson lacks the elite speed for a TE, but he's a savvy route runner and reliable hands catcher. I expect Carlson to be more consistent, but I think the resulting production moves him up a notch or two at best. With a solid fantasy roster at other positions, Carlson isn't a bad option at all.

Among other topics next week, I'll discuss my spring rankings and the methodology behind them.