Last Man Standing

  Posted 5/29 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

How To Succeed In Survivor Leagues

Survivor leagues have become very popular throughout the last few years. A Survivor draft is a fantasy league draft in which the owner drafts the best possible team and then is no longer allowed to make free agent acquisitions, trades or alter his lineup in any way. These leagues remind me of the old Ronco infomercial slogan, "Set it and forget it". The players on your roster that score the best each week will be used for your weekly score. For example, if an owner has three quarterbacks on his roster and one scores 30 points, one scores 25 points, and one scores 2 points, the highest score (30 points) is the one used for the week. This is true for each of the fantasy positions. So, lineup requirements have a big impact on the distribution of the roster during the draft. In these Survivor leagues, the team with the lowest point total is bounced out each week, while the rest remain. Contrary to other leagues, the goal is not to win or be the highest scorer each week, but rather not to be the lowest scorer. It is a subtle change in thinking. The only caveat is that many leagues offer teams with the highest score each week immunity for the coming week. This is the one way to minimize the luck involved. This evolution in the Survivor rules is an attempt to limit the times a high scoring team gets bounced on a low week.

Many think luck plays a much greater role in Survivor leagues because of the "one bad week and you're out" rule. Player injuries and poor weeks play a much larger role in Survivor leagues, but there are still steps you can take to maximize the potential of your roster. We will examine those below.

How much luck is needed?

Because there are no free agent acquisitions or trades, player injuries will knock several strong teams from contention before the weather turns cold. This is the primary reason why it is essential to draft for depth at key positions. We will address the role of depth later in this article. Luck also plays a role because injuries and one poor week can decimate a solid Survivor team. It is imperative that owners in this style of league closely monitor the bye weeks or an early exit may result. There is little an owner can do in Survivor leagues if the players on his roster underachieve. This is why it is very important to land solid starters at all of the key positions used in your league along with adequate depth to cover bye weeks and injuries.

Steps to a Successful Survivor Fantasy Football Season
(Many leagues start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 Def with an 18-round draft)

1. Running backs are critical in a Survivor league. Finding a solid RB1 is imperative.
2. Only draft a receiver in the first two rounds if the value is exceptional.
3. Only draft a quarterback early if the pick is excellent value.
4. Select at least three running backs in the first eight rounds.
5. Try to keep bye week repetition to a minimum. This is one of the main guidelines.
6. Draft for excellent depth at all positions, especially running back and wide receiver.
7. Ignore both the kicker and the team defense position until late in draft
8. Fill out the skill position starters by the tenth round.

Just like in most fantasy football leagues with standard starting requirements (1 QB, 2-3 RB, 2-3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 Def), running backs in Survivor leagues always are the hardest to come by. They should be targeted by the owner in the first few rounds unless extraordinary value exists at other positions. Round one should almost always be used for a running back because that is where the value is unless the league has unique scoring rules. If you do choose WR/WR or QB/WR in the first two rounds, you must target running backs in the next few rounds to get some strength to the position. It is difficult to play catch-up at the running back position with many of these Survivor leagues having 16 teams. But, the PPR scoring employed by many of the Survivor leagues makes drafting a WR in the second or third round more rewarding. By that time, the talent at running back has thinned out, leaving the receiver position as one with still very good players remaining.

Many experts will tell you that value can be found later in fantasy drafts at the running back position and it has been somewhat true in the past. However, most of the primary running back jobs are sewn up and only injuries will allow a lower-round back to become a good value play. There are usually less than 15 capable running backs that are worthy of going in the first 20 picks. Don't look to another position unless the value is remarkable. Tom Brady and Drew Brees become value plays in the second round, and there are a few prominent receivers that also become valuable in the second. Taking two high quality running backs in the first two rounds really starts the draft off on a strong note in a Survivor league where only the top producers each week for a team are counted. The emphasis should be on taking the right ball carriers. Taking runners for the sake of taking player listed in the RB category does little good. If a team takes a running back with the first two picks, it is still likely that the owner can put together solid talent at QB and WR who can put points up each Sunday. The key on receiver position is on depth and those that can put up solid numbers each and every week. If a Survivor owner does draft RB in the first two rounds, he should strive to have five wide receivers by the eighth or ninth round. Five solid, mid-tier receivers can put up numbers very comparable to the top-tier receivers. The depth at the running back position dries up much quicker than at the wide receiver position. This makes sense and is true for most every draft.

At the quarterback position, the value in selecting quarterbacks usually begins in the sixth round or later. These are the types of leagues that taking a handcuff is rewarded. A quarterback like Matt Schaub becomes as valuable as many of the elite passers when the owner is able to draft Dan Orlovsky very late. Combine those two with a passer like Brady Quinn, David Garrard, or even Jake Delhomme and the owner will get at least as good of production as those taking Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in the early rounds. Other QB combos to pursue are Matt Leinart/Kurt Warner, Tarvaris Jackson/Sage Rosenfels and Chad Pennington/Chad Henne. Taking the pair from the same team enables the owner to minimize the risk at the situation from either injury or not knowing who will emerge as the starter. All of these situations are ideal to put up fantasy points. Since quarterbacks score well, it is important to consider bye weeks and not to take a zero one week if at all possible.

The value of the tight end position really depends on the scoring rules. Normally, most should not even consider tight end until the ninth round at the earliest because the position is very deep. But, in leagues rewarding points per reception, tight ends can become valuable. Same goes for 16-team leagues. This is an extraordinary year for depth at the tight end position. It is quite advantageous to take two quality tight ends. Two things to remember are to watch bye weeks and match the style of player with the league scoring. Some tight ends score best in PPR leagues while some scores best in standard scoring leagues. Also, since you need points every week, a sure and steady veteran is much more valuable than a flashy first or second year player.

Many have always thought that it is important to draft three running backs minimum in the first eight rounds no matter the type of league. The running backs you know will score consistent fantasy points on a weekly basis are usually all taken by the end of the seventh round. The only ones left are those backs mired in committees. You do not want too many of these backs on a Survivor roster. Since ball carries are more consistent on a week-to-week basis than the receivers, the steady backs give the owner an advantage over those that go WR/WR or WR/QB to start off the draft.

One of the things that always surprises me in Survivor drafts is when the owners pay no attention to bye weeks. Inevitably, this team ends up with three of the team's running backs with the same bye week. Drafting without paying attention to the byes will result in disaster. All it takes is one bad week and you'll be kicked off the 'Island' without even an opportunity to sit on the 'Jury'. It does not matter how many times you were the high scorer in previous weeks, you are now sitting on the sideline. There will be times when the value of a player left on your draft sheet is too good to pass up despite having the same bye as other players on your squad. However, all things being equal, try to pick up players that will be able to fill in for your other players when they are off.

Another very important strategy to use is to make sure you have solid depth at all positions on your squad. In a 12-team Survivor Draft that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 DEF with an 18-round fantasy draft, you must have an even distribution on the roster to succeed. At the kicker, tight end and team defense position, you'll be able to get by with two players as long as the bye weeks are spread out. In addition, it is a good strategy to try to avoid having your top players across different positions off the same week. For the quarterback, running back and receiver positions, it is crucial that you try to have two bench players for depth at each position. Those extra players will be there to cover for injuries and bye weeks. In the example above, you should end up with 2-3 QB, 4-5 RB, 5-6 WR, 2 TE, 2 PK and 2 DEF with solid depth in all the positions.

By the 10th round of a Survivor draft, a roster should already have a minimum of 1 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE and an extra pick that can be used in any of those four positions. Making sure you have covered all four positions is huge because it gives you scoring potential coming from all aspects of your roster and that will help an owner avoid exile. After the tenth round, good players that offer RB or WR depth are almost depleted.

Do not draft a kicker or a team defense until at least the 13th round! Since there are fewer kickers than team defenses guaranteed of a job (obviously), it is wise to address kicker before defense. At the minimum, try to have the kicker position fully addressed in the 17th round. It does a fantasy owner no good to have a fantasy kicker that lost his job in preseason. There is no way to replace him. Also try to consider which teams have the better schedules for team defense. Defenses have the opportunity to score well with returns for scores, turnovers, and sacks, so I try to find those playing the worst offenses.

In Conclusion

Survivor Leagues are a lot of fun and very easy to manage since you merely "Set it and forget it". These leagues take zero management. There is some luck needed stay alive for 16 weeks in order to win. Using the steps above will at least put you in a position to do well in the Survivor league format.