Identifying Sleepers - Wide Receivers

  Posted 7/20 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Fantasy players are constantly searching for the next sleeper wide receiver. Each wants to be the one that discovers the great player that his leaguemates have never heard of like Marques Colston a couple of years ago. This is the fourth and final article in the series that explores how to find sleepers in your fantasy league. We will look for sleepers at the wide receiver position. Since every league is different, this series will concentrate purely on standard scoring, 12-team leagues. The methodology of looking for sleepers will be the same for wide receivers as it was for the quarterback and running back positions. In addition, we will try to find players that meet at least one, hopefully several, of these rules. Below is the list that will be employed to identify sleepers:

• A player cannot be considered a sleeper if you never would start the player given any circumstance in a normal league.
• The potential sleeper must be able to produce at least two starting levels higher than pick used (i.e., WR5 has to have ability and situation to produce at WR3 level, if not better). There is no need drafting a back as RB4 on your team that can only hope to attain RB3 status. For quarterbacks, one starting level is enough.
• The very best sleepers have to rely on few other things to happen. A NFL RB2, who only needs one injury (or to outplay one player) is more attractive than one who is a RB3 or even RB4, regardless of talent.
• Every sleeper is judged purely based on potential outcome versus pick used. This is relatively simple, it is a matter of risk versus reward.
• Fantasy owners need to look for anything that has changed in situation: changing teams, changes in personnel in front of player, changing in coaches, etc..
• One key for future breakout can be the points per game stats for an injured player from the year before.

Now, let's get started on looking for sleepers at the wide receiver position. We will look at these wideouts according to their draft position (ADP). Since most leagues start 36 or 48 receivers each week, we will only consider pass catchers outside of the Top 60 at the position. The focus will be on identifying sleeper candidates that have the ability to be a fantasy WR3, or better. Last year, Muhsin Muhammad was touted as a sleeper in this article. He had an ADP of WR64. Muhammad outplayed that draft pick by a good margin, finishing as an every-week starter for many fantasy teams. Interestingly, he is being drafted as WR55 at the present time. What value for a late pick.

1. Mark Bradley had some big games for Kansas City in 2008. He was released by the Bears after battling injuries and inconsistency during his tenure in Chicago. Bradley relished in the wide-open, pass-happy offense employed by the Chiefs. He had a strong stretch of games in midseason, scoring at least ten fantasy points in four of five games. Bradley is a versatile player that can help in many ways. The son of former Oklahoma quarterback Danny Bradley even threw a touchdown pass to Tyler Thigpen in week nine. With the upgrade at quarterback, and an offseason in the new system, fantasy owners should expect big things from Mark Bradley. He just needs to stay healthy. Bradley is a play-making receiver who makes big plays after the catch. He is a threat for the big gain every time he touches the ball. The Chief offense, void of big play guys, will look for Bradley often. The trade of Tony Gonzalez should mean even more pass targets for Bradley and slot receiver Bobby Engram. Bradley is being drafted as the WR64 off the board in fantasy drafts, late in the 16th round. He was startable some in 2008 and should be again in 2009. Coach Haley's new offense and Matt Cassel under center are two reasons to expect some big games from Mark Bradley.
2. Earl Bennett was an unquestioned flop his rookie season. He was drafted with high hopes of developing into a strong possession receiver that would be a great security blanket for quarterback Kyle Orton. Well, Bennett struggled on the field and in preparation. What makes him a sleeper? He reunites with college quarterback Jay Cutler. The Bears only have Devin Hester as a halfway decent receiver. There will be plenty of opportunity for Bennett to prove he has matured and is ready to start for the Bears. With an ADP of WR61, Bennett could become a startable fantasy receiver with the strong-armed Cutler tossing him the ball.
3. Mike Walker has battled knee injures for the last few years. He has shown flashes that give many onlookers hope that he might be past the injuries. Walker is a physical receiver that has good speed for his size. The Jaguars got rid of most of their receivers from last year and brought in aging veteran Torry Holt, and drafted two rookies. One reason for optimism is the improvement to the offensive line should give David Garrard more time to throw. Walker will be given every opportunity to start opposite Holt, which is all anyone can ask. With an ADP of WR72, he is a good gamble. Mike Walker has shown big play ability, which is what the Jaguar offense needs.
4. Devin Thomas has considerable upside after disappointing fantasy owners his rookie season. Thomas struggled with the finer points of the professional game after getting by on sheer athleticism throughout college. He is the favorite to become the WR2 in Washington. The Redskins are still very high on Thomas. The development of quarterback Jason Campbell could help Thomas take another step forward in becoming a startable fantasy option. Santana Moss' injury history makes Thomas a possible fantasy starter if Moss misses time. Being drafted as the 74th receiver off the board, late in the 19th round. Thomas combines speed and size to be a player that could really emerge in year two as a pro.
5. Josh Morgan is a steal with an ADP of WR59, player 173 overall. I realize that he is just outside of the WR60 criteria but I love Morgan's chances this year. Morgan is a player that could make some noise this season. He had some bad luck last year after excelling in preseason. Morgan suffered a knee injured, then staph infection, which limited his comeback in 2008. With Mike Martz run out of town, most do not expect the 49ers to throw the ball as much as before. The drafting of Michael Crabtree only muddies the water for the San Francisco receiving corps. But, Morgan is very talented and will get his shot this year. Yes, Isaac Bruce is still around, but the team will look for ways to get the ball into Morgan's hands. He was terrific in preseason last year and has had a strong offseason. Morgan is a player to watch who could break out this year. Fantasy owners are not giving Morgan enough credit, drafting the rookie Crabtree some 81 picks before Josh Morgan. This situation screams value.

Sleepers appear at the wide receiver position more than any other. As a rookie, Anquan Boldin finished as the WR4 with a WR88 ADP. Antonio Bryant had a monster season in 2008 after being out of football for all of 2007. But, in both situations, each could have been identified using the above criteria. Whether for the players listed above, or others, fantasy owners can utilize the above rules to identify sleepers at all positions.