Identifying Sleepers - Quarterbacks

  Posted 7/20 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Fantasy players are always on the lookout for the next emerging sleeper candidate. We all want to be the one that discovers the next great player. This is the second installment of a series that explores how to find sleepers in your fantasy league. We will examine sleepers at the quarterback position. Since every league is different, this series will concentrate purely on standard scoring, 12-team leagues. The methodology of looking for sleepers will be the same for all of the positions. In addition, we will try to find players that meet at least one, hopefully several, of these criteria. Below are the guidelines that will be employed to identify sleepers:

• A player cannot be considered a sleeper if you never would start the player given any circumstance in a normal league.
• The potential sleeper must be able to produce at least two starting levels higher than pick used (i.e., WR5 has to have ability and situation to produce at WR3 level, if not better). There is no need drafting a back as RB4 on your team that can only hope to attain RB3 status. For quarterbacks, one starting level is enough.
• The very best sleepers have to rely on few other things to happen. A NFL RB2, who only needs one injury (or to outplay one player) is more attractive than one who is a RB3 or even RB4, regardless of talent.
• Every sleeper is judged purely based on potential outcome versus pick used. This is relatively simple, it is a matter of risk versus reward.
• Fantasy owners need to look for anything that has changed in situation: changing teams, changes in personnel in front of player, changing in coaches, etc..
• One key for future breakout can be the points per game stats for an injured player from the year before.

Before we get started looking for this year's sleepers at the quarterback position, we will look at the sleepers suggested in last year's article. The three top passers listed were Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, and Jason Campbell. Two very good calls and one that finished at his ADP. Schaub had a good season and out-paced his ADP by a good margin. Rodgers had a great season and out-played his QB17 ADP by tremendous margin. Campbell started off hot, but finished about where he was drafted. He is and was a low-end fantasy QB2 option. These three were listed as fantasy passers drafted as QB2s but had the potential to finish as a QB1. In addition, three other quarterbacks were listed as players drafted as fantasy QB3s but could finish in the Top 15. Kurt Warner, Matt Moore, and Brady Quinn were listed. Only Warner was given the opportunity, and he took advantage of it. Warner finished as a Top 5 fantasy passer in many leagues. Neither of the other two saw much action. Moore was injured before the season and Quinn played sparingly. The best part of these types of sleepers is that they cost little but have high upside.

For the 2009 sleepers, we will break these down by their draft position (ADP), and look at the options. First, let's look fantasy QB2s that are not drafted in the top 15 passers. Three potential sleepers jump off the page. We will only consider those that are capable of landing in the Top 12 at season's end.

1. David Garrard gets little respect. He suffered through a rough 2008 season beset by injuries to the Jaguar offensive line and wide receiver position but still finished as QB11. Jacksonville upgraded the receivers by bringing in Torry Holt and drafting Thomas and Dillard in the 2009 NFL Draft. In addition, the Jaguars are hoping that Mike Walker can free himself from the knee injuries that have plagued him the last four years. In April's Draft, the team upgraded the offensive line by taking a pair of talented players that could see time right away. David Garrard has lost weight this offseason and looks to be in great shape. He will be much more mobile and able to make plays on the ground. Garrard has Top 8 potential for fantasy owners and can be had for the price of a backup. He is the ideal complement (QB2) for owners who waited and waited to draft their starting fantasy passer. He is a bargain at his current ADP, QB17.
2. Kyle Orton was hand-picked by Josh McDaniels to lead the Bronco passing game. Denver has two very strong receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, in addition to Brandon Stokely, Jabar Gaffney, Tony Scheffler, and others. McDaniels brought his high-powered passing attack from the Patriots and looks to run a wide-open offense. His ADP is only QB18 while fantasy owners figure out if Orton can play well enough to hold onto the job. The Broncos still have a porous defense and will be passing a ton just to stay in games. Orton should be the main beneficiary. As a backup fantasy quarterback, the new Bronco passer offers Top 10 potential. No, he is not Jay Cutler, but is able to produce strong fantasy numbers. Fantasy owners with an extra roster spot should consider taking Simms late just for insurance.
3. Shaun Hill played well at the end of the 2008 season. He led the 49ers to a winning record in his starts. Hill produced good fantasy numbers in the limited action. On a per game basis, Hill finished as a Top 12 fantasy passer. But, even with the addition of Michael Crabtree and Brandon Jones, Hill is being drafted outside of the Top 25 passers. Josh Morgan is back healthy and looks strong. Shaun Hill is a player that could surprise this season. He faces competition from the oft-disappointing Alex Smith. Even with the exit of Mike Martz, the 49er passing game should be more than capable with Hill under center. With Crabtree, Morgan, Jones, Isaac Bruce, Jason Hill, and Arnaz Battle, the 49ers have a deep receiving corps.

The last group of potential sleepers at the quarterback position are ones drafted as fantasy QB3s (or later) but have a chance to produce at a Top 15 level. This would translate into being at least a good spot starter to cover bye weeks or injury. Since these quarterbacks are drafted as a fantasy QB3, it means that this player is drafted for upside only. The sleeper status is based purely on the ability to produce strong fantasy numbers if given the opportunity. If your fantasy team has two quarterbacks that are NFL starters, this QB3 needs to be focused more on upside than current situation.

1. Kurt Warner is a marvel at his age. He still has the accurate passing with a quick release and deft touch. The former Arena League star finished as a Top 10 fantasy passer the past two seasons. He is the unquestioned starter in Arizona. But, I do not think the aging passer can stay healthy for another season. Too much went right for Warner and the Cardinals in 2008. This time last year, it was Leinart who was touted as the starter while Warner was the value play. This is the year to draft Matt Leinart late in fantasy drafts.
2. Yes, Matt Schaub has played well and is the starter in Houston. But, the Texans brought in Dan Orlovsky for a reason. They paid him good money to be the backup in Houston. Plus, we have to give credit to Gary Kubiak for recognizing talent at the quarterback position. Orlovsky looked surprisingly competent last year in Detroit. He was running for his life many games, but still was able to produce adequate fantasy points. While still young, the former UConn star has plenty of room for development. Fantasy owners should expect improvement while he is under the tutelage of Kubiak. Plus, the weapons are present for him to be a fantasy starter should Schaub miss any games .... as he has the last two seasons.
3. Chad Henne is a forgotten man. He was drafted to be the heir apparent in Miami. But, the strong season by Chad Pennington and the drafting of Pat White has led many to forget about the former Michigan star. Pennington is in the last year of his contract so he is expected to be playing elsewhere in 2010. White is a great weapon in the "Wildcat" formation but is not an every-down quarterback. The Dolphins still have a weak corps of wide receivers. But, Pennington was a Top 15 fantasy passer on a per game basis with the same concerns at receiver. Henne has all of the tools to step into the role should Pennington get injured or become ineffective this season.

Fantasy owners are advised to take a chance on a sleeper quarterback as a fantasy QB2 or QB3. Sleeper passers are great risks to take. If the sleeper QB excels, it takes the pressure off of having to "hit" on the fantasy starter. Sleeper quarterbacks will emerge during the season and one or two will come from the waiver wire. With decent options available on the waiver wire, fantasy owners are encouraged to only draft QB2 or QB3 on the basis of upside and potential. But, if a fantasy owner wants to draft and stash a sleeper quarterback, follow the criteria listed above to find the next emerging passer.