Identifying Sleepers

Posted 7/20 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

One of the toughest things for fantasy owners is to identify sleepers. What players can I draft that can substantially outplay their draft position (ADP)? Well, there are indicators as to which players might be left for dead and which might offer great opportunities to succeed. This is the first article in a series that will look at the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions. We will use a specific list of criteria in order evaluate sleepers. These are general rules and should be taken as such. We will try to find as many players that fit multiple categories. The same list of rules will be applied to all three positions and are applicable for each.

All leagues are not created equal. There are all types of fantasy leagues. Some have large starting lineups. Some employ 10 teams and some 16 teams. Even some leagues utilize an odd scoring system. Given the difficulty in appeasing all of the varieties of leagues, this series will focus on standard 12-team leagues with standard scoring. Since these rules are general, the methodology should work for all leagues.

In order to detect and identify sleepers, we must identify what we are using to evaluate the players. The criteria will give us key indicators of things to keep an eye out for when seeking sleeper prospects. Below are some of the situations to examine when looking for a sleeper or breakout candidate:

A player cannot be considered a sleeper if you never would start the player given any circumstance in a normal league. Some of the players that come to mind are Seneca Wallace, Pat White, Lorenzo Booker, or Brad Smith. There are many, many others that fit into this category. I would be hard-pressed to think of any string of events that would make me desperate enough to insert one of these players into my fantasy team's lineup. With these guys, there will be players that are better options on the waiver wire, so no need to take in a draft. We all can name several players at every position that would never start a game in fantasy football no matter what.
The potential sleeper must be able to produce at least two starting levels higher than pick used for RB and WR, and one for QB (i.e., WR5 has to have ability and situation to produce at WR3 level, if not better). There is no need drafting a back as RB4 on your team that can only hope to attain RB3 status. Justin Fargas and Ricky Williams come to mind. These two backs have no shot at being a Top 35 rusher in 2008. This is where the risk/reward comes into play. If the player does not have the talent or situation to produce at a high level, let someone else draft him. When drafting a WR5 or WR6, there is no reason to take a guy that cannot put up WR3 numbers if given the right scenario. One player I like in this category is Tashard Choice. If anything happened to Marion Barber, Choice would once again be thrust into playing time for the Cowboys. This would immediately make him a RB2 candidate with an inexpensive price tag. Ladell Betts finished as RB10 the year Clinton Portis was injured.
The very best sleepers have to rely on few other things to happen. A NFL RB2, who only needs one injury (or to outplay one player), is more attractive than one who is a RB3 or even RB4, regardless of talent. Tim Hightower becomes attractive because he looks to be the lone beneficiary if something happens to Beanie Wells, who battled injuries in college. Hightower is a better sleeper option than Danny Ware and Shonn Greene because each would share carries no matter what happens to the other backs. Many great sleeper opportunities come from situations where the starting job is up for grabs. In these cases, the lower ranked of the two in competition emerges as the sleeper at a great price. We will examine the situation closer in a future article, but Earnest Graham is prime example of this criteria. He and Derrick Ward are battling to be the starting running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the money that the Buccaneers gave Ward, fantasy owners are taking Ward several rounds before Graham.
Every sleeper is judged purely based on potential outcome versus pick used. This is relatively simple. When judging the sleeper upside of a player, it becomes a matter of pick used (ADP) versus what the player can achieve. It is a matter of risk versus reward.
We will attempt to identify sleepers at different levels. Many times, fantasy owners look for sleepers that are outside of the Top 50 at the position. There is little risk in the pick, but offers a slim chance of reward. In the subsequent articles, we will examine sleepers of differing ADP, each with a different risk and reward for the fantasy owner.
Fantasy owners need to look for anything that has changed in situation: changing teams, changes in personnel in front of player, changes in coaching staffs, etc. This is one of the biggest keys to finding sleepers. A change in any variable could alter the situation from one to avoid to one that is very favorable. Fantasy owners are encouraged to look for changes in team personnel and coaching staff. The passing games in Kansas City and Chicago should be given extra consideration change in offensive personnel and philosophy. In addition, fantasy owners should pay close attention to Laveranues Coles this season. He goes from an average passing offense to a key member of the Cincinnati Bengals. With Chad Ochocinco's penchant for disrupting team chemistry, Coles could be thrust into a prominent role early on. In addition, he gets a huge upgrade in situation and passer going to the pass-happy Bengals with Carson Palmer.
Pay attention to points per game stats for an injured player from the year before. This is another of my favorite things to look at to identify sleepers. One such player that jumps out to me is Matt Schaub. He has missed games the last two years due to injury but has been a top fantasy passer on a per game basis. He is a quarterback that is overlooked by many, but is a very good quarterback. Larry Johnson is another player that played well before injury. After playing at a high level for the 2006 season and parts of the 2007 and 2008 seasons, the veteran ball carrier is now being drafted as a very low fantasy RB2. He offers plenty of value for fantasy owners. There are other examples of this phenomenon like Felix Jones and even Deion Branch. Jones had a couple of monster games before being lost for the season. His appeal increases in PPR leagues.

These rules will help us locate and identify sleeper candidates. There will be three more articles in the series, one each for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. The next installment will address the quarterback position. Since most leagues start just 12 passers a week, we will focus on fantasy options that have a chance to be a fantasy starter, and produce big numbers when they do get an opportunity. When looking for sleeper plays, I tend to focus on players drafted later that can be viable fantasy starters. The key is potential. If the player falters, there are similar players fitting the above criteria available on the waiver wire.