Players That Scare Me

Posted 8/28 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Like most fantasy owners, there are several situations and players that scare me as a fantasy owner. Similar players in better circumstances are available without the risk ... so why take the unneeded chance? To me, much of fantasy football is about risk management. I will be happy to take a risk in certain situations, but the upside must be high and the number of risks taken low. I do not want to take any unnecessary risk in the first couple of rounds in a fantasy draft. These are the players that will lead your fantasy team. They need to be solid and as safe as possible. There is always the chance for poor production due to injury, so why add to the chances for a down season? Below are some situations that I am leery of buying into in the beginning part of the draft.

I am going to avoid players early in my drafts that are on bad teams with rookie head coaches. This makes for a bad situation. While the players in Miami and Atlanta would have fit this category a year ago, I do not see lightning striking again with the Oakland Raiders, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos, or Kansas City Chiefs. In addition to the rookie head coaches, there is one thing these teams have in common; they all have issues at the quarterback position. There is no certainty or stability at the position. Most either have passers competing for the job or merely ones that are not any good. This will make it difficult to find consistent fantasy production for all of the skill positions. The quarterback play is what stabilized the offenses in both Miami and Atlanta last season. In addition, with the poor defenses of these teams, I am avoiding the running backs in the first two rounds of drafts. The offenses will be forced into "catch up" mode early on in many games. Most of these teams also have issues with the offensive line which will only exacerbate a bad situation. Yes, I know that this may mean I pass on a top notch player like Steven Jackson, Frank Gore or Calvin Johnson, but I would rather take the risk on a player in a better situation. I do not want my title aspirations tied to these teams.

I will be happy to take risks on players from these teams in the middle or late in the draft, just not in top two rounds. There are plenty of serviceable fantasy options in which to take the risk. At running back, I like Michael Bush, James Davis, Donnie Avery, Josh Morgan, and others later in drafts from these teams. Also, none of these teams offer a quarterback that is even viable as a fantasy QB1. Sure, Cassel, Hasselbeck, and Orton might be decent as a backup on your team, but those situations are not appealing for starting fantasy quarterbacks.

As a rule, rookie wide receivers scare me. There is so much to learn for these athletically gifted players. For the past several seasons, the incoming pass catcher with the highest ADP (Average Draft Position) has not finished the season as the top rookie wideout. Plus, fantasy owners must select a top rookie as WR4, and that is not desirable. Even though I think Hakeem Nicks and Percy Harvin will be extremely productive as professionals, I do not want to rely on them this season on a regular basis. With the Crabtree holdout, I will gladly let someone else take him entirely too high. Taking a rookie wide receiver very late in the drafts is fine, but little is invested or expected.

I also will try to avoid "lame duck" players. What does this mean? There are several players that are in the last year of their contracts and the team has decided not to renew their contract. There are three players that scare me that are "lame ducks": Jason Campbell, Kyle Orton, and Thomas Jones. There are others that fit the criteria, but these three stick out to me. Campbell had a poor second half to last season and has not played well this preseason. The Redskin fans will be clamoring for Todd Collins early on if he does not improve. Further, his poor play should lead many fantasy owners to think twice about the other receivers in Washington. In Denver, McDaniels has tied his future to Kyle Orton even though the ex-Bear is not a top tier passer. Orton has looked spotty so far this preseason. The disruption due to the Brandon Marshall saga has not helped. Denver has a BRUTAL schedule starting in week four so Orton may not make it through the season if the Broncos are losing every week. Both of these passers needs a strong 2009 season in order to get a 2010 contract. It may not happen this year for either Campbell or Orton. Thomas Jones is an interesting player this year. He is coming off of a great season. He held out of camp to put pressure on the Jets to extend his contract, but the team knew better. Now, Jones is back playing, but splitting time with Leon Washington and possibly Shonn Greene, too. Jones is on the old side and will not be back in New York next season. The Jets paid a lot to move up in April's NFL Draft to take Greene. Jones is being drafted off of his AFC leading 2008 season, which is too high of a price for me considering the crowded backfield.

Wide receivers drafted as high-end fantasy WR2 that are changing teams scare me. Why so? While there are instances where the stud receiver can be immediately productive in a new offense, the odds are not good. There are a couple of wideouts that may struggle this season ... at least in comparison to their ADP. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Terrell Owens have a lot in common. Each signed with a team that has poor play on the offensive line. Plus, both quarterback situations are tenuous and MUCH worse than the ones each left. Houshmandzadeh leaves the prolific Bengal pass offense for the Seahawks, a team that struggles in most facets of the offense and has an aging, injury-prone passer. Owens leaves the Cowboys for the chilly air of Buffalo. He has been slowed by a toe injury so far this offseason and it could linger. Neither of these two receivers are a good bet to meet or beat their current expectations.

Now, on to the individual players I am avoiding and why:

Roy Williams - After the departure of Owens in Dallas, Roy Williams is expected to take on the role of WR1 for the Cowboys. There is a catch, though. Williams has played in all 16 games just once in 6-year career. Add in his inconsistent effort and suspect hands and you get a NFL WR2 that has little chance for success as a WR1. Williams has only one productive season as a professional where his performance equaled his ADP. It is unlikely that number two will come this year. (Ed Note: This was written before Williams' injury scare on Thursday).
Brett Favre - There are so many things that scare me about the Brett Favre situation. First of all, he is still not fully recovered from the offseason surgery. Secondly, he steps into a situation where he does not have the support of all of his teammates. The Vikings do have a good offensive line and will be able to protect Favre, but the wide receiver corps is less than stellar. Favre will be drafted as a low-end fantasy QB1 in some leagues. This is just asking for failure. The odds are strong that Favre loses his games started streak this season. Let someone else take on this headache and you can select Sage late in the draft.
Kurt Warner - Warner is coming off of a terrific season, leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. He performed as well as anyone could ask. But, the aging veteran had offseason hip surgery. He is still limited somewhat by the hip. The good news is that Warner was never known for his mobility nor elusiveness. So much went right for Warner and the Cardinals last season that expectations are high ... maybe too high. One area of concern is that Arizona lost their offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, to the Chiefs. The Super Bowl jinx could be in force. If you do draft Warner, it is advisable to "reach" for Leinart. Leinart might be a good late round gamble even if you do not have Warner.
Seattle Running Backs - Neither Julius Jones nor Edgerrin James has much of a chance for success this season. The offensive line is beat up, and generally lacking. With the deficiency on defense, the Seahawks could be playing from behind many games. The Seattle backfield is one that offers little upside. Right now, it is not known which back will be the starter. Either way, fantasy owners would have to be extremely desperate to insert either Jones or James into their fantasy lineups. It is better to avoid this situation and select higher upside backs.