Rookie Quarterbacks - Historical Success

  Posted 8/17 by Jeff Tefertiller - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Quick links to all eight parts of the Rookie Series:
QB History · 2009 QBs · RB History · 2009 RBs · WR History · 2009 WRs · TE History · 2009 TEs

Fantasy owners are always eyeballing the incoming rookie class to see which players might make an immediate impact ... or any impact at all. This is the first installment in a series will examine every draft pick since 1990 for the four skill positions and look for trends that may develop. Half of the articles will look at the historical data and the other half will use that data to predict the success of the 2009 NFL rookie draft class. These articles will look at the odds for success of the incoming rookies and compare to the historical success rates. This article will focus on the quarterback position.

The methodology for determining a successful draft pick will be based on the following metrics:

• The number of seasons in the NFL. The longer the career span, the better chance the player was an asset to fantasy owners.
• The number of seasons the player finished as a fantasy starter (using 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE as the starting lineup) in a 12-team league.
• The number of seasons as an elite fantasy starter (finishing in top six quarterback or tight end, or top twelve running back or wide receiver).
• In addition, a ratio was used for the two metrics above. The ratio divides the number of seasons finishing at the metric level by the number of seasons in the NFL. It was included to help distinguish players of varying career lengths.

The above metrics will be a constant for all of the skill positions. The picks are broken down by the following picks: Top 5 Pick, Picks 6-10 Overall, 1st Round picks outside of Top 10, 2nd Round, 3rd Round, 4th Round, 5th Round, 6th Round, and 7th Round and later. As most would guess, the success rate is highest for the early picks and lowest for the low picks. But, where are the major drop-offs in rates of success? Well, it will be different depending on the position.

Now, on to the quarterbacks drafted since 1990. The Top 5 overall picks at the quarterback position have yielded a mixed bag of results. There are many high picks that have paid off well like Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Carson Palmer. But, there have also been some major flops with those high picks. Names like Joey Harrington, David Carr, Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith are not easily forgotten by fans. With such a diverse range of possibilities, what are the averages for the top picks? The chart below may surprise many:

What do these numbers mean? One average surprised me. I fully expected the average career length for a passer taken in the Top 5 picks to be more than seven years. The average quarterback taken as a Top 5 pick averages seven seasons in the league, with two years as a fantasy starter and only 1.38 seasons as an elite fantasy passer. These numbers would be much, much worse if not for Peyton Manning. He has played eleven seasons, finishing as a fantasy starter every year and an elite fantasy player in all but one season. One interesting tidbit is that no quarterback selected this high, since Eli Manning and Philip Rivers were drafted in 2004, has finished as a Top 12 fantasy quarterback. While these averages are not great, what are the chances of hitting on a pick in the six through ten range? The next chart will offer another surprise. It only includes a six-player sample, but is still quite interesting.

Yes, that is right. No quarterback taken in picks six through ten has finished a season as a fantasy starter. This group of players includes Joe Flacco, Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, Trent Dilfer, David Klingler, and Andre Ware. These quarterbacks were taken with high expectations but fell far short. While there is still a chance that Flacco or Leinart can put together a season to finish as a fantasy starter, the overall numbers are not good. It is interesting that all of the quarterbacks taken in the Top 10 picks have such a short career span. So, how do the quarterbacks taken later in the first round compare?

The likelihood of getting one season as a fantasy starter or elite starter drops dramatically from the Top 5 picks. These are the passers usually taken by good NFL teams. There are many successes like Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, and Ben Roethlisberger and many dismal failures like Todd Marinovich, Jim Druckenmiller, and Cade McNown. I expect these percentages to actually grow with the likes Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, and Roethlisberger in the early stages of their careers. Will the numbers drop-off in the second round passers?

This is one of those times where a small sample size is exploited with one or two outliers. Guess which flip-flopping passer was taken in 1991 by the Atlanta Falcons? His 18 seasons in the NFL, 15 as a fantasy starter, and eight as an elite starter certainly skew the numbers. He is just one of twenty passers drafted in the second round since 1990. Quarterbacks are getting riskier as the rounds go by. One fact of note, no thrower drafted in the second since Drew Brees in 2001 has enjoyed a fantasy starter season. Will the numbers continue to decline?

Yes, these numbers are correct. And, no, this is not a very small sample size like picks six through ten. This data includes 23 quarterbacks taken since 1990. As most would assume, the average career length continues to decline. Brian Griese and Neil O'Donnell bumped up the average career span or it would be much lower. Will the fourth round offer any more value?

Oddly, there has not been a passer drafted in the fourth round of the NFL Draft since Kyle Orton and Stephan LeFors were selected in 2005. Aaron Brooks and his four fantasy starter seasons help these numbers. There are many failures. Of the 31 players drafted, only Brooks, David Garrard, and Scott Mitchell had a viable fantasy season. Those are not good odds. How much do the chances drop looking at the fifth round?

This is where we see the dramatic decline in career length. It is difficult to think that a quarterback taken in the fifth round will only have a one-in-six chance to be a fantasy starter ONCE. Plus, this quarterback would only have a four percent shot at being an elite passer for one season. To illustrate how long the odds are against a fifth round rookie passer, Mark Brunell is the only quarterback taken since 1990 to be a fantasy starter. He finished as a starter four times. No other quarterback taken in the fifth round could be fantasy relevant. With the growing trend, the sixth round may surprise.

Why the jump in numbers? Well, there have been five sixth round passers to finish at least one season as a fantasy starter. But, four of them have enjoyed long and productive careers. Having players like Tom Brady, Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck, and Jeff Blake tend to skew the numbers. In fact, the sixth round in 2000 produced both Brady and Bulger. The last chart includes the players taken in the seventh round or later. Many may remember when the draft saw well over 300 players drafted.

There have been some good fantasy sleepers from the seventh round, but the odds are stacked high against. Players like Trent Green, Matt Cassel, and Elvis Grbac needed opportunity to showcase their wares.

Looking back on these draft picks, it becomes apparent that the earlier the picks, the more opportunity the passers had early in their careers. But, that makes sense as the team has so much invested in those players. These numbers do show us that the earlier the pick, the better the chance for a longer, more productive career ... both as a fantasy player and as a NFL passer. One thing that is not talked about much in rookie fantasy drafts is that career length should be considered in determining values. This is especially true for quarterbacks and running backs. The next article in this series will examine the quarterbacks taken in the 2009 NFL Draft. We will look at the chances for each rookie passer drafted in April's draft. Below are the above charts all together for easier viewing: