Extreme Pressure on Rookie Head Coaches
Posted 8/5 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
There are more rookie head coaches in the NFL than any time in recent memory. Eleven head coaches will be pacing the sidelines this year who were not in the position last preseason. Yes, that is over one-third of the teams in the NFL! That much turnover creates a lot of uncertainty as to possible philosophy changes on offense and defense. Why are there so many new coaches? The answer for each team is different. For the coaches forced out the answer is the same: teams are more impatient now than in the past. Organizations have to satisfy the rabid fan base and be competitive every year. All coaches are under increased scrutiny. Another reason that has led to more change in coaching staffs this year is the success of the 2008 rookie coaches. Last season was an enormous anomaly. There were four teams with new head coaches in 2008. Only Baltimore was thought to be a playoff contender last summer. But, three (Baltimore, Miami, and Atlanta) of four made the playoffs, and the other (Washington) got off to a fast start before tanking down the stretch. This makes teams think change is good and results can be immediate. What are the chances that two rookie passers will lead their teams to the playoffs again? The odds cannot be high. So, who are the new coaches and what are their chances?
Let's start with the two new head coaches that will start rookie passers early in the season. Both the New York Jets and the Detroit Lions brought in head coaches that have experienced great success as defensive coordinators. Rex Ryan and Jim Schwartz led two of the premier defenses the last few seasons in Baltimore and Tennessee, respectively. How soon will rookie passers Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford assert themselves into the starting lineup? Daunte Culpepper and Kellen Clemens should not offer much resistance. Of the two, the Jets have a chance to make the playoffs while the Lions are at least a couple of seasons away from the dream.
In 2008, Mike Singletary, in San Francisco, and Tom Cable, in Oakland, each took over midseason for the Bay area teams. The coaches were able to get their teams to play hard after the switch. Neither organization has been able to get back to the level of past success. Both teams have poor quarterback situations and will rely heavily on the running game just to be competitive. In addition, each team will need their young receiving corps to take a major step in their development. This might be asking too much too soon. Singletary's 49ers have a much better chance to compete this season than Cable's Raiders. This is not because San Francisco has great playoff chances, rather Oakland will struggle to be third in the weak AFC West.
There are a few other teams that experienced change in coaches but do not have a great shot at the postseason. Jim Mora, Jr. replaces a retiring Mike Holmgren in Seattle. The Seahawks are aging and lacking talent on offense. The Seahawks will be relying on the oft-injured, aging Matt Hasselbeck to lead the offense. The offensive line is a glaring weakness. Plus, Seattle has no running game. Julius Jones does little to threaten defenses. In Cleveland, Eric Mangini takes over a Browns team with very little ability at almost every position. His best move this spring was convincing Rob Ryan (Rex's twin brother) to leave Oakland for the Browns. Mangini must be a great salesman. The Browns are a mess. They have an aging Jamal Lewis at running back with little behind him. Cleveland only has Braylon Edwards at wide receiver. The team traded All Pro tight end Kellen Winslow this offseason, leaving few options in the passing game. The team will need Brady Quinn to mature quickly as a quarterback. The Browns are a long ways from competing in the AFC North. In Kansas City, Todd Haley follows lovable loser Herm Edwards. Haley and General Manager Scott Pioli were instrumental in bringing Matt Cassel to Kansas City. The Chiefs are a young team that still is a ways away from competing in the AFC West. With a young defense, missing a pass rush, the Chiefs will need to lean heavily on veteran running back Larry Johnson. Kansas City traded Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez before the NFL Draft, leaving only Dwayne Bowe as a receiving threat. Bowe should expect a heavy dose of double coverage. There will be a lot of pressure Cassel to prove he was worth the second round pick and the big contract.
In St. Louis, Steve Spagnuolo comes to the Rams from the Giants. He is a young coach looking to prove he can turn things around in a tough situation. The Rams are another team without many talented players. Spagnuolo and the Rams will lean heavily on star running back Stephen Jackson to lead the offense. St. Louis has a young and improving offensive line that will need to play well to keep oft-injured Marc Bulger upright. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are playing elsewhere, leaving second-year receiver Donnie Avery to lead a raw group of young receivers. Spagnuolo will get a chance to show what he can do with the little talent the Rams do possess on defense. Josh McDaniels arrives in Denver after orchestrating the passing game in New England. He is the most talked about new coach this year. It did not take him long to irritate, then trade his Pro Bowl passer, Jay Cutler. This fiasco immediately placed McDaniels in the cross hairs of fans. Will Kyle Orton be able to play well enough to make the Bronco fans forget Cutler? The other big question revolves around Brandon Marshall. Marshall is uber-talented, but is pining for a trade. Denver has attempted to upgrade the talent on its poor defense, but it will not be enough to make a difference. The team is also looking to transition into a 3-4 defense.
Little known assistants in Indianapolis and Tampa Bay, Jim Caldwell and Raheem Morris, succeed Super Bowl winning coaches and hope to continue the momentum. It will be difficult for these first-time head coaches to enjoy the success of their predecessors. These two franchises were the last two employers of Tony Dungy. Dungy left each team in good shape when he departed. Questions still remain. Can Jim Caldwell and the Colts win a Super Bowl with Dungy's players the way Gruden did? How will Indianapolis replace Marvin Harrison? Lastly, how much will the Colts miss Dungy's leadership and coaching the defense? In Tampa Bay, the questions are fewer but the issues are more pronounced. With little talent at the quarterback position, will the Buccaneers be able to move the ball? How will the team replace its aging star defenders? What will the defense look like under Morris' direction?
Contrary to fans' expectations, most of these teams will not live up to the heightened hopes in 2009. This will be the season to illustrate that last year was an anomaly. The odds are stacked against even half of these teams making the playoffs with new coaching staffs. Few of these teams were successful last season. The players, and their talent, remained the same even if there was change in coaches.
From a fantasy standpoint, changes in coaches could mean uncertainty in the style of offense and the role of the players. The new coaches will want to put their stamp on the team. The good news is that some players will see increased opportunity for fantasy production with the change. Bronco passer, Kyle Orton, quickly comes to mind. He will have a chance to throw often compared to the conservative Bear offense he directed last season. Coach McDaniels has already stated that he will run some innovative plays that fans have never seen before. The player that will see his production drop the most is Tampa Bay receiver Antonio Bryant. The uncertainty at quarterback will hinder his production. Also, the loss of Gruden will not help matters any. Bryant has even stated that he expects his statistical production to decline this season under the Morris regime.
Change in coaching personnel will affect fantasy performance. Fantasy owners need to incorporate the changes in offensive style into the players' value. With eleven new coaches, there will be a lot to consider in this year's fantasy drafts.