The PPR Difference

  Posted 7/27 by Jeff Tefertiller - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Fantasy leagues are as diverse as the people playing in them. With so many variations in fantasy football, owners are allowed the flexibility to choose what types of leagues they enjoy the most. In this article, we will examine differences in scoring and how it influences which players and positions become more and less valuable. Three different scoring variations will be discussed: Standard Scoring, PPR Scoring, and Graduated PPR Scoring. We will measure each scoring system using VBD (Value Based Drafting) . The VBD values compare players across positions and allow for an objective numerical value for each player.

First, we need to define what makes each scoring system unique. For the three different methods of fantasy scoring for this article there are some fixed variables: 12 team league, 18 roster spots, with starter lineup requirements of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF. Below are the differences in the scoring for each of the three types of leagues.

When looking at the difference in scoring for the chart above, many have assumptions on how the differences will play out in terms of VBD. Those playing in Graduated PPR leagues stock up on tight ends and wide receivers compared to other leagues. Is it warranted? Those playing in Standard leagues want great running backs and a strong quarterback. Is that warranted? Does adding PPR and Graduated PPR de-emphasize the running back position or merely allow the receivers to catch up a little? We will look to find answers for these and other questions.

So, how do the differences in scoring affect the VBD values by position? The easiest way to compare the different scoring options is to see how many of each position are ranked in what would be a round of a fantasy draft, including each player's corresponding VBD. Tiers of 12 players will be used to simulate a round in a fantasy draft for each type of scoring. The VBD values will determine the tiers so the drop-offs in VBD will give a more complete view of the differences in scoring. The VBD values will illustrate the impact of the truly elite players at each position, especially at running back. Different players will see their value change, sometimes dramatically, depending on the scoring system. Below are the the Top 12 players overall in the three scoring systems (VBD values found using projections from mid-July):

The VBD values favor the elite running backs in all three scoring varieties. As we might expect, Standard Scoring does weight toward the running back position more than the other two, especially with the top few rushers. Still, nine running backs finished in the Top 12 of all three scoring systems. While the three types of leagues look fairly similar, there are some major differences that are worthy of discussion. The VBDs of Larry Fitzgerald (WR1 in each), backs like Michael Turner whose value changes depending on scoring (worth more in Standard Scoring and less in PPR Scoring), and only one passer (Drew Brees in Standard Scoring) are the most intriguing.

Fitzgerald, ranked as the top-ranked pass-catcher in all scoring systems, becomes more and more valuable as he gets rewarded for what he does best, catching passes. In Standard Scoring leagues, there are several receivers that score about the same so there is little incentive to draft a wideout early on, especially in leagues where runners are hoarded. There is more of a scarcity concern at the running back position in Standard Scoring leagues because adding PPR allows more backs to become viable due to their receiving ability. Michael Turner is a very good running back, but gets few opportunities to catch passes from quarterback Matt Ryan. Since Turner is only projected to have ten receptions, his VBD value actually decreases as PPR is introduced. Matt Forte is just the opposite. Given his tremendous ability as a receiver and few receiving options for quarterback Jay Cutler, his VBD values increase with PPR. Interestingly, both are worth almost the exact same in Graduated PPR leagues. Drew Brees, as the highest ranked passer, sneaks into the first round in Standard Scoring leagues only. This makes sense, though, as the other positions are not given extra points for receptions and the quarterbacks get extra point per passing touchdown. It will surprise many how far he slides in the two PPR leagues.

As we look at what would be the second round, if determined by VBD values, we will get a clearer picture of the differences in scoring systems. Here are players 13-24 and their VBD values:

This is the point in the "draft" where the differences in the scoring become apparent illustrating which players have strong VBD values. While Drew Brees is player eleven overall in Standard Scoring, he barely sneaks into the Top 24 overall in PPR and Graduated PPR Scoring. Brees' teammate, Reggie Bush, is really only worth taking early in fantasy drafts if the scoring rewards running backs with a point per reception. One interesting fact is that the PPR and Graduated PPR leagues actually have more running backs in the Top 24 than does Standard Scoring. Why is this so? Will this trend continue? Here are the next 12 players in each scoring system:

This is the point in drafts where drafters have to make good choices. In the Standard Scoring leagues, this third "round" has some very risky players. It is becoming very obvious that running backs and quarterbacks reign in this scoring system. The top ones get scarce, artificially inflating lesser players. Why else would Ryan Grant or Philip Rivers have a VBD in the Top 36 players? Plus, the VBD values are lower in comparison to the PPR leagues, grouping the players close together. Just like with the last group of 12 players, there are more backs in the Top 36 in PPR leagues than in Standard Scoring ones. This is mainly because the passers are worth more in the Standard Scoring leagues. There are six quarterbacks in the Top 36 of non-PPR compared to three and four for the PPR and Graduated PPR respectively. This pushes rushers down the rankings. Finally, here are the next round of players:

It is interesting that the position totals after the Top 48 players look very similar for all three scoring systems. The players' names and VBD values are different, but the totals for each position appear much alike. The Top 48 players yield similar results without regard to scoring, but the differences are how we get to this point.

So, enough of the numbers. What strategies can I employ to take advantage of my league's scoring? Below are some strategies and observations.

• When we look at Standard Scoring, running backs and quarterbacks reign supreme. The shortage of workhorse rushers always seems to dictate the draft. Yes, some owners think they are being smart by taking a receiver in rounds one or two, but they leave themselves desperately needing to connect on at least one sleeper. In leagues that offer a flex position in Standard Scoring leagues, the value of running backs is even more exaggerated. The ability to start three strong running backs each week is a huge advantage. Also, in Standard Scoring leagues, having a solid quarterback is vital. Only in Standard Scoring leagues is it a viable option to take a passer early in the draft. In comparison, PPR leagues dilute the quarterback position. The VBD of the top passers take a nosedive in these PPR leagues.
• The running back position is strong for all three types of leagues, especially during the early rounds of the draft. In Standard Scoring leagues, the running back position drops off after the first few players. Nine backs were in the Top 12, while only 15 were ranked in players 13-48. This illustrates how valuable the top rushers are in Standard Scoring leagues. When we compare this to the PPR and Graduated PPR scoring, the numbers are almost exactly the same. The only difference is that there was actually one fewer back in players 13-24 in Standard Scoring than the other two. With the rushers looking similar, it is the non-backs that differ dramatically depending on the scoring. The players and VBD do vary depending on the scoring ... but the positional totals are similar. There does seem to be a shortage of stud running backs that are viable fantasy RB1s this season.
• In Standard Scoring leagues, there are several receivers that produce about the same in all parts of fantasy drafts. There are many talented receivers this year. There is value to be found at other positions, especially at the running back and quarterback positions. In PPR leagues you can wait on quarterbacks and stock on running backs and receivers in the first three or four rounds of a fantasy draft. The same goes for Graduated PPR leagues. The receivers are bunched close together at the top of the rankings in all three scoring varieties In both types of PPR leagues, 21 points differentiate WR1 (Fitzgerald) and WR5 (Moss), compared to just 13 points in non-PPR . With the way the running backs drop off, it is advisable for many fantasy owners to still take a back in round one ... regardless of draft position and scoring. The receiver position is very deep in comparison to the ball carriers, especially in the leagues that reward receptions. Draft accordingly.
• At the tight end position, it is risky taking any player before the fifth round. In the last few years, the top-ranked preseason tight end has not finished as TE1. This happens for many reasons, but the major cause is depth at the position. Even in the Graduated PPR leagues, the tight end position is not prominent enough to pass over a solid fantasy RB2 or WR1. The VBD values have Witten worth about the same as some very good WR1 options. Taking a tight end this early is a dangerous strategy, even with unceremonious departure of Terrell Owens. It is surprising that the same number of tight ends were in the Top 48 overall players for both PPR and Graduated PPR Scoring. Tony Gonzalez would have been player 49 overall in Standard Scoring leagues making him worth about the same without regard to the scoring, as TE3 in all three scoring systems.

As with other aspects of fantasy football rules, it is very important for fantasy owners to read and understand their league's scoring. Sometimes, it is difficult to ascertain which positions will become valuable in a given scoring system. In these instances, the easiest way to get a clearer picture is to plug the rules into the Footballguys.com VBD application or the Draft Dominator. Given the variety of leagues and their corresponding scoring rules, fantasy owners have plenty of options. We would have it no other way. Enjoy!