Overvalued Players - Week 14

  Updated 12/9 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. With the bye weeks starting, some of these players would be much worse plays if not for the good players off this week. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.

Quarterback

Philip Rivers

• Top 250 ranking: 7
• Weekly ranking: 13
• Difference: -6

Rivers and company have a tough matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this week. No passer has been hotter than Rivers of late, but this could be a down fantasy game against a good secondary. In addition, Dallas has the pass rush to make Rivers uncomfortable in the pocket. He will still be OK to start, but great expectations should not be anticipated.

Peyton Manning

• Top 250 ranking: 4
• Weekly ranking: 10
• Difference: -6

Manning and the Colts play the Denver Broncos this week in a game that fans should be salivating over. The strength of the Colts passing game matched up against Champ Bailey, Brian Dawkins, and the Bronco secondary. Denver has a good pass defense and will not allow Manning to throw the ball up and down the field with ease.

Jay Cutler

• Top 250 ranking: 12
• Weekly ranking: 28
• Difference: -16

The Packers made Joe Flacco look very bad on Monday Night. They are a very tough matchup this week for the struggling Jay Cutler. The Bear offense was able to be productive against the Rams last week but get a reality check this weekend. This is a great week to sit the Bears skill position players.

Running Back

Marion Barber III

• Top 250 ranking: 19
• Weekly ranking: 32
• Difference: -13

Barber has been held in check the past few weeks. He has shared the load with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice and been unable to get untracked. The game against the San Diego Chargers this week is not the one to expect a big rebound. Barber will struggle against a hot Charger defense. San Diego has not allowed many rushing touchdowns lately and this will not be a good week to expect a strong fantasy game.

Pierre Thomas

• Top 250 ranking: 14
• Weekly ranking: 31
• Difference: -17

The Saints will be able to pass at will against the Atlanta Falcons this week. Atlanta is stout against the run but a sieve against the pass. This is right up the Saints' alley with Drew Brees at the helm. He will have no problem picking on the poor Falcons defensive backs. Then, when New Orleans has the lead, they use Mike Bell as the closer. This is a game that does not set up well for Thomas to have a big fantasy game.

Adrian Peterson

• Top 250 ranking: 3
• Weekly ranking: 9
• Difference: -6

Peterson and the Vikings ground game will have a good test against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The stud back has struggled the past couple of weeks and this is not a great game to get back on track. Expect a good, not great, game from Peterson. He is still a must start, but expectations should be tempered.

Matt Forte

• Top 250 ranking: 17
• Weekly ranking: 29
• Difference: -12

Forte and the Bears have a very tough matchup against the tough Packer defense this week. Green Bay has been hot of late, shutting down much better rushing attacks than the Bears. Forte should continue to struggle running the ball and will have little chance of scoring. He has disappointed this season and expect more of the same this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Bryant

• Top 250 ranking: 28
• Weekly ranking: 42
• Difference: -14

Bryant has found a connection with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman. The first-year passer has targeted his lone decent receiver often. But, this week will be tough. The Buccaneers face the New York Jets. This means Bryant will be defended by Revis. He is a GREAT cover corner and will not need much help against Bryant. This is a tough, very tough, matchup for the leader of the Tampa Bay passing game.

Wes Welker

• Top 250 ranking: 4
• Weekly ranking: 13
• Difference: -9

Welker is on a pace to set a few records this season. He and the Patriots meet the Carolina Panthers this week. The Panther secondary is underrated and will pose a problem for the big-play Patriots. Still start him this week, just do not have expectations that Welker will have numbers similar to last Sunday's game against the Dolphins.

Sidney Rice

• Top 250 ranking: 8
• Weekly ranking: 19
• Difference: -11

Rice has been the biggest surprise this season in fantasy leagues. He has become a legitimate WR1 in fantasyland. This week, he will get a supreme test against Leon Hall and the Cincinnati Bengals. Hall is adept at shutting down the opponents top receiver and should be locked onto Rice all day. The Vikings will spread the ball around to the open receiver, which should be Harvin, Berrian, or Shiancoe.

Vincent Jackson

• Top 250 ranking: 13
• Weekly ranking: 18
• Difference: -5

Jackson has been in a slump the last few weeks as quarterback Philip Rivers has targeted the open receiver. Opposing teams have focused on shutting down the playmaking Jackson, leaving other receivers open. This week's game against the Dallas Cowboys will be another tough game for the big receiver.

Tight End

Greg Olsen

• Top 250 ranking: 8
• Weekly ranking: 14
• Difference: -6

Olsen and the Bears have a very tough matchup against the Green Bay Packers this week. Only the most desperate of fantasy owners should start the athletic Bear tight end. The Packers will be able to pressure the erratic Jay Cutler and create havoc on the Bear passing game.

Jermichael Finley

• Top 250 ranking: 11
• Weekly ranking: 19
• Difference: -8

Finley is coming off a huge game against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. The game against the Bears will be a much tougher matchup for the young, athletic tight end. The Bears have a fast group of linebackers that will not let Finley roam free as he did against the Ravens.

Kicker

Nate Kaeding

• Top 250 ranking: 2
• Weekly ranking: 13
• Difference: -11

Kaeding and the Chargers will get a stiff test this week against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys do not yield many field goal opportunities to their opponents. This is a week to look for another option as this is not a good matchup.

Lawrence Tynes

• Top 250 ranking: 3
• Weekly ranking: 9
• Difference: -6

The Giants have another tough division game this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. With the sorry state of the Giants running game, there will not be many scoring chances for Tynes. He has kicked well this season but gets a tough matchup this week. Also, the weather could pose a problem.

Defense

Philadelphia Eagles

• Top 250 ranking: 4
• Weekly ranking: 11
• Difference: - 7

The Eagles defense meets tough division rival, the New York Giants this week. Eli Manning plays conservatively and the Giants will look to establish the running game. This is a tough matchup for the Philadelphia defense.

San Diego Chargers

• Top 250 ranking: 3
• Weekly ranking: 22
• Difference: - 19

Tony Romo has been hot the past few weeks and has not turned the ball over. He will test the Charger secondary, and put up some points. The Cowboys do not yield many sacks and have plenty of weapons for Romo. This is not a good matchup for the San Diego defense.