Overvalued Players - Week 11

  Updated 11/18 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. With the bye weeks starting, some of these players would be much worse plays if not for the good players off this week. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.

Quarterback

Philip Rivers

• Top 250 ranking: 7
• Weekly ranking: 17
• Difference: -10

Rivers and the Chargers travel to Mile High to play the Broncos in a big division game for both teams. Denver has very strong corner backs led by Champ Bailey. With the gravity of this game, it could be a very conservative contest with neither team taking many chances.

Peyton Manning

• Top 250 ranking: 1
• Weekly ranking: 8
• Difference: -7

Manning was awesome against the New England Patriots last weekend. He gets another tough matchup against the Baltimore Ravens this week. The Ravens have been playing well on defense of late and need to play well in order to remain in the playoff race. The Baltimore defense has been more aggressive since the bye week and will try to put the heat on Manning.

Ben Roethlisberger

• Top 250 ranking: 8
• Weekly ranking: 14
• Difference: -6

Roethlisberger and the Steelers should have an easy win this week in Kansas City. Pittsburgh will be able to get an easy early lead. If so, the running game will grind out the win. There will be no need to pass much considering the porous Chief run defense will yield big production on the ground. Also, the weather could pose an issue for the passing game. This matchup looks much better on paper than it really is.

Running Back

DeAngelo Williams

• Top 250 ranking: 6
• Weekly ranking: 14
• Difference: -8

Williams has played well of late, but is not racking up the consistent yardage he did last season. The Panthers meet the tough Miami Dolphins on Thursday night in what looks to be a hard-fought game. The Miami defense is difficult to run on effectively. Williams is still a good fantasy starter, but not likely to put up a monster game.

LeSean McCoy

• Top 250 ranking: 14
• Weekly ranking: 23
• Difference: -9

McCoy moved up 21 spots in the Top 250 Forward with the second concussion to Brian Westbrook. It looks like McCoy might be the primary ball carrier in Philadelphia for a good while. But, McCoy and the eagles travel to Chicago to meet the Bears this week. Lovie Smith and crew will be hungry after the poor showing last Thursday. They will be ready for the Eagles. This is not a great matchup for McCoy.

Ray Rice

• Top 250 ranking: 5
• Weekly ranking: 13
• Difference: -8

Rice has been the lone bright spot for the Raven offense of late. He was the only playmaker on Monday night. The Raven offense has slowed down of late. This week, they meet the high-flying Indianapolis Colts who are playing great. The Colts have a good defense and will gameplan to stop the diminutive running back. Rice will still be startable, but he has limited upside this week.

Joseph Addai

• Top 250 ranking: 11
• Weekly ranking: 27
• Difference: -16

Addai was very effective last week against the Patriots. Rookie Donald Brown was still limited. He should be in better health this week. Also, the Colts travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens. This is not a very good matchup for the tough running back. He still might get a touchdown, but there will be little running room.

Wide Receiver

Vincent Jackson

• Top 250 ranking: 5
• Weekly ranking: 30
• Difference: -25

Jackson was held in check last week and has another tough matchup against Champ Bailey and the Denver Broncos. This will be a tough matchup for the entire Charger passing game. The contest could decide the AFC West title. The game is in Denver and will be a tough one for San Diego.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

• Top 250 ranking: 13
• Weekly ranking: 24
• Difference: -11

Houshmandzadeh is coming off a big game last week. This Sunday, he and the Seahawks meet the Vikings in the Twin Cities. The Minnesota pass rush should be all over Hasselbeck the entire game. The Vikings are a good defense and will look to contain the Seattle passing game. Houshmandzadeh is still a fantasy WR2, but one without much upside this week.

Hines Ward

• Top 250 ranking: 17
• Weekly ranking: 22
• Difference: -5

Ward has played well this season in the pass-happy Pittsburgh Steelers offense. This week, he and the Steelers travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. The Chiefs have young, talented corner backs who will slow the passing game. But, Kansas City is very weak against the run. The Steelers will look to run early and often, especially if the weather turns cold and wet as expected.

Randy Moss

• Top 250 ranking: 1
• Weekly ranking: 6
• Difference: -5

Moss is coming off a huge game against the Indianapolis Colts. This week, the Patriots meet division foe the New York Jets. The Jets have enjoyed some success against Moss of late. Earlier this season, the veteran receiver was held to four catches for 24 yards. Last year, he combined five receptions for 48 yards and a touchdown over TWO games with Matt Cassel under center for the Patriots. Moss will find it tougher to have a big game against Revis and company.

Tight End

Brent Celek

• Top 250 ranking: 4
• Weekly ranking: 8
• Difference: -4

Celek has emerged as a top fantasy tight end this season. He is Donovan McNabb's favorite red zone target. This week's matchup against the Bears is a tough one for Celek. The Chicago defense held Vernon Davis in check last week and look to do the same to Celek this week.

Heath Miller

• Top 250 ranking: 11
• Weekly ranking: 15
• Difference: -4

Heath Miller has cooled off after a hot start to the season. He and the Steelers pass offense could struggle against the Chiefs this week. Miller is not a great fantasy play this week unless there are no other options.

Kicker

Nate Kaeding

• Top 250 ranking: 2
• Weekly ranking: 16
• Difference: -14

The Chargers travel to Mile High to meet the Broncos. This will be a tough game for the Charger offense, especially through the air. Fantasy owners should not expect a big game from Kaeding. His scoring opportunities will be limited compared to many weeks.

Matt Stover

• Top 250 ranking: 9
• Weekly ranking: 14
• Difference: -5

Stover and the Colts have a rough matchup against the Ravens this week. This could be a low scoring affair with more punts than scoring chances. The game is in Baltimore, Stover's old home field so he should know his way around. But, it is less ideal than the friendly confines of the dome.

Defense

Denver Broncos

• Top 250 ranking: 5
• Weekly ranking: 24
• Difference: -19

The Broncos host the high-powered San Diego Chargers this week. Philip Rivers does not turn the ball over often and will be a tough test for the upstart Denver defense. This is a huge game for both teams. The Chargers will try to run veteran LaDainian Tomlinson often to control the clock and the game.

Baltimore Ravens

• Top 250 ranking: 7
• Weekly ranking: 29
• Difference: - 22

The Ravens defense is playing hard. The team is desperate for a win. But, the schedule has the Colts next up. Peyton Manning and company will not make things easy for the aggressive Ravens defense. This is a great week to look for other options.