I Wanna Mock You!
Posted 5/29 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
Back in the days of old before computers were prevalent, I would prepare for drafts with a pen and a legal pad. With knowledge of my leaguemates acquired from past drafts, I would project each pick for the first ten rounds of the draft. It took a lot of time to do each mock. With the advent of new technology, there are very good ways to mock a draft in a short period of time. Those familiar with Footballguys.com use the Draft Dominator. There are also web sites that have their own online mock drafts. No matter what works best for you, it is important to prepare for your drafts, and mocks are the easiest way to do so. Since there are several types of mock drafts, let's look at how best to take advantage of what each offers.
The online mock drafts have some positives and negatives. The big advantage of these is that they are against real people. It is one thing to project who others will take, but it is better to see things play out with live drafters. The biggest drawback is when the other drafters either do not take the draft seriously or just set the picks on predraft. If someone is just letting the computer make the picks, you are no better than using the Draft Dominator or the simulator at Footballhangout.com. One other thing to note is that sometimes owners will not pick the player they like best because they know a leaguemate is watching in order to get an advantage. If many do this, the mock draft is merely an exercise and offers little help in preparation. Even though these live mock drafts are faster than the old pen and paper, a drafter should expect the draft to last a few hours.
Footballhangout.com is one of a few sites that have a mock draft simulator. The mock draft simulator will allow a draft to do a mock in just a few minutes. The thing to remember about the online mock simulator web sites is that the mock is based on someone's ranking of players and their unique scoring rules. These rankings and scoring guidelines may or may not be indicative of your league. It is a good thing to run mocks against different rankings just to give a variety. There are no "right" rankings, so the variety helps in preparation. The one thing to think about is that rankings are usually a projection of the end of season order of finish and cannot be influenced by personal preferences of the fellow drafters or any concept of value, whether via position scarcity or the end of a tier. The last player of a certain positional tier carries more value just because it is the last chance to draft a player in the tier. This is usually the case early in drafts where the drop-off between a certain player and the next best player at a position is relatively great. This happens most with the quarterback and wide receiver positions. This value due to scarcity issue is addressed when using the Draft Dominator.
The Draft Dominator is a great way to mock your draft. There are so many ways to tweak the variables for both a variety in results and to cater to the unique variables of the league. With the advantages of Value Based Drafting (VBD) already incorporated, the Draft Dominator allows a drafter to plug in the parameters of the league. Everything from number of teams, scoring rules, and how many starters at each position effect the "value" of each draft pick. The Draft Dominator takes position scarcity into account as well. The other advantage is the ability mock a draft with the other teams drafting by ADP or a number of different rankings. There is so much flexibility that a mock drafter can get a wide range of outcomes just by changing one variable at a time. Running a mock draft on the Draft Dominator takes less than five minutes and allows the drafter a chance to prepare well in a short amount of time. Also, one piece of advice when running many mocks on the Draft Dominator; try to take notes or save the results as a file when you try different strategies because it is easy to forget the specifics when you do many mock drafts. The notes will also help you in your draft. You can easily have a short list of players that you hope and expect to be available for each pick and plan accordingly.
Mock drafts are great to get a feel for which players will be available for each of your draft picks. These mocks should be used as a guide because they are based on someone else's player rankings. In addition, these rankings may or may not be reflective of your league's scoring system, roster makeup, or league members. Differences to the scoring system will definitely affect which players are drafted in which order. Also, if a league has a rule that only so many of each position can be drafted, the results will be a little different than the mock. The biggest variable in all drafts is the human factor - the league members. There is no way a mock draft, against other fantasy drafters or a computer, can simulate your leaguemates and their tendencies. These tendencies are what differentiates one league from another. Each league has its own persona. Different leagues may look alike, but the drafts can be totally different.
It is vital to prepare for your fantasy draft. In most cases, those who prepare the most come out better in the drafts. These mock drafts help simulate the live draft and aid the drafter in knowing what to expect at each pick. With the ability to run several mocks (against a computer) in just a few minutes, it is advisable to try different strategies. What is the effect of taking a quarterback in the second round? Well, you can find out very easily. What wide receivers are left if you take three running backs to start the draft? There are many more similar questions that are easy to find the answers. Trying these different strategies in a mock draft allows a drafter to see the consequences of the decisions. This is the best reason to do as many mock drafts as possible. The more mocks you do, the more comfortable you will be with the choices at each pick. Also, in many cases, the mock works as a worst case scenario for my leagues. When I am mocking against the computer (especially the Draft Dominator), the computer makes the best picks possible. But, in live local drafts, we all have had that guy who takes a kicker in the fifth round. It is very comforting knowing that you have done plenty of mocks and have a game plan for your draft. It is important to remain flexible once the draft starts, but the preparation using mock drafts allow the owner to know what to expect if there is a change in the plan. I try to run 40-50 mock drafts before each draft. Each of these mocks takes less than five minutes on the Draft Dominator so it does not take a ton of time. But, as with anything else, preparation is the key to success.
Good luck with your drafts this year, and mock away.