The Marketplace - Week 5

Posted 10/6 by Jeff Tefertiller and Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

This will be a weekly feature looking at the values of players in all leagues, from redraft to dynasty. The focus will be on identifying changes in player values beforehand in order to either buy a player low or sell a player high. It does not matter what type of league you are in, some players are gaining value and some are plummeting. Each week, we will look at a different group of players and examine why they are worth consideration to buy or sell. At the bottom of the article, there will be a "Buy of the Week" and a "Sale of the Week". This week, we will look at players whose time it has come to sell .. and sell quickly in some cases. We are getting to the point in the season where each week is very important. It is the time to move players that may underperform as the season progresses.

Quarterbacks

Kurt Warner was bruised and battered in the Sunday night game in week three against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colt defense was getting to Warner on almost every pass attempt. The veteran passer was rattled and did not stand in the pocket with confidence. With shoulder and hip injuries, it is unlikely that the aging quarterback can finish the season healthy. Coming off the bye week, with his receivers now healthy, the time to sell Warner is coming very soon. If you cannot get a good offer, wait until he has a big game, then sell to a team with either an injured quarterback or one needing to address a bye week void.
Jake Delhomme has looked his age this season. His offensive line has not helped matters. They allowed the Dallas defense to record its first sacks of the season in week three on Monday Night Football. Delhomme, and the Panthers, are also coming off a bye week. The team should have a renewed dedication to the run after seldom rushing the ball against Dallas. Carolina is a running team and needs to establish the tempo early on. This is what allows Steve Smith plenty of room to operate. The Panthers signed A.J. Feeley to back up Delhomme, but the team insists that the veteran passer's job is safe. It is doubtful he will be able to keep his starting job if the poor play continues.
Marc Bulger is coming off a nasty shoulder injury, a bruised rotator cuff. It hinders his range of motion and ability to throw the ball hard or deep. Bulger was not playing well, even before the injury, so he is another who could be benched this season. The Ram offense has been pathetic this season and much of the blame has been placed on the quarterback. The team signed Kyle Boller in the offseason to back up Bulger so St. Louis may want to see what the former Raven can do fairly soon...no matter how soon Bulger heals. The Rams have few options in the passing game so the upside to either passer is very limited. Any time is a good time to sell Bulger this season. He would be difficult to insert into a starting lineup unless an extremely desperate situation.
Jason Campbell has struggled this season. Yes, he has enjoyed two soft matchups against the Lions and Buccaneers the last two weeks, but do not let that cloud your thinking. He is Jason Campbell. The Redskin offense is not in synch and is in major need of a full overhaul. Campbell only has wide receiver Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley as weapons. The running game is underwhelming with Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Campbell is a guy to move before the schedule gets littered with division foes.
Brett Favre saved the day in week three against the San Francisco 49ers. Oh, what a play. His statistical production was limited most of the game, before the last drive. He had another big game on Monday night against his old team, the Packers. He could be an easy guy to sell at this point. Favre has stated that he does not expect to finish the season. We should believe him. Sell high after a big game and do not look back. Many teams are quarterback-needy with the bye weeks starting to take effect.

Running Backs

Clinton Portis looks to be on the steep decline. He has battled bone spurs in his ankles and does not have the same burst we are accustomed to seeing from the All Pro running back. To make matters even worse, the Washington offensive line has not played well at all. There are not many big holes for Portis to run through. Without his usual speed and quickness, Portis has become a plodder ... and one without much room to run. This is not a good combination. Sell him to a team that still thinks Portis is a viable fantasy option.
Larry Johnson still runs hard. He hits the line with everything he has, but there usually is no hole to be found. The Kansas City offensive line is very poor, and is unable to open up an running lanes. The Chiefs are also still learning and implementing the system of coach Todd Haley. Given Johnson's age and the state of the Chief offense in general, Johnson is a player to sell as soon as possible. While the veteran still may have a big game here or there, he will also have many games with under 50 or 60 total yards. Also, the impotence of the offense as a whole has led to few scoring opportunities.
Darren McFadden is a big play back. Many love the upside of the second-year runner. He is able to take any carry to the house for a long touchdown. McFadden has tremendous speed and is the lone big play player in Oakland. But, there is a catch. The Raiders have not been able to establish the running game the way they want most weeks this season. McFadden injured his knee against the Houston Texans on Sunday. He tore his meniscus and should miss two to four weeks. Even when healthy, McFadden shares carries with Michael Bush, and sometimes Justin Fargas. Bush often gets the goal line carries for the Raiders, leaving McFadden few scoring chances. Bush is also a great receiver out of the backfield, thus limiting situations where McFadden can succeed. Yes, McFadden may get a goal line carry or some catches, but not enough to be reliable. He is a player to sell, if you can get anything for the injured rusher, before others realize how little production is available in Oakland. We need to remember that McFadden is not a back that will touch the ball 300 times in a season even when things are going great. In college, he was the quarterback at Arkansas, with Felix Jones the tailback. The carries were divided due to durability concerns. McFadden is not the reliable RB2 for fantasy leagues many want him to be, and is a spot starter at best. Sell after a big game. The negative yardage against the Texans, the worst rushing team in the NFL, will not help attempts to sell.
Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams make up one of the weakest running back tandems in the NFL. Ward was brought in to be the multipurpose back while Williams has surprised everyone with his amazing comeback. They split carries on a team that does not run the ball well. Earnest Graham also sees action as a tailback. The Buccaneer offense is not strong. The team is going through a rebuilding phase and is weak at most offensive positions. Neither of these two runners is startable most weeks. Ward missed this past week with a knee injury. In addition, there has been some worry and doubt about the status of Williams' old injuries, especially his surgically repaired knee. In addition, the running ability of quarterback Josh Johnson will impede the running game some. For those looking for a buy low opportunity, Graham might be had for peanuts since he is not getting many carries behind the other two. With the injury issues of the other two backs, he might be a play for the second half of the season.
Thomas Jones does not have the same burst of last season. His two long scoring carries in week one inflate the statistics of a poor season running the football. Even those two rushes came after a meager start to the game. Jones is splitting carries with Leon Washington, who displays more burst and playmaking ability than the journeyman runner. Jones did show some explosion on the scoring run Sunday against the Saints. But, it was his only decent run of the game. The new coaching staff has stated their desire to get Washington total 300 touches this season. This will come at the expense of Jones. In addition, Jones is not a vital part of the offense going forward under the new regime and is in the last year of his contract. After getting a few carries Sunday, there is even a chance that rookie Shonn Greene sees an expanded role later in the season, which would take from Jones' workload.

Wide Receivers

Torry Holt has enjoyed a long and illustrious career. He was awesome in St. Louis with the "Greatest Show on Turf". But, those days are long gone for him. While the ability to run great routes remains, he cannot get any separation from opposing defenders. Holt has been passed as the primary receiver by Mike Walker-Sims. Being the WR2 in Jacksonville is not really worth much, so this is the time to sell Holt to an owner who values the name value of Torry Holt.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh has disappointed fantasy owners so far in this short season. No, the Hasselbeck injury has not helped matters, but it is very telling how Nate Burleson is getting the bulk of the wide receiver pass targets most games. Houshmandzadeh will still have some decent fantasy games against the poor defenses of the NFC West, but his hopes for another 1000-yard season may be over .... at least as long as the ex-Bengal is in Seattle. Houshmandzadeh was productive in garbage time as the Colts were blowing out the Seahawks. But, it still leaves his season's production well short of expectations.
Roy Williams is not near the receiving threat of Terrell Owens. We all see that by now and it has become obvious. The dropped passes are missed opportunities. Yes, Williams will have some good games from a fantasy perspective, but the former Texas Longhorn will fall way short of preseason expectations. He is a receiver to sell after a big game. It might be a while after the rib injury sustained in week four. It is unknown how long Williams will be out of action. Williams is a player that can make the great catch one play, and take the next one off. His tremendous athletic ability will allow for some big weeks, but I would look to sell soon afterward.
Lee Evans and Terrell Owens are disappointing fantasy owners in enormous proportions. The Buffalo offense, led by Trent Edwards, do not take advantage of the big play ability of either receiver. Rarely is there a play called and a pass thrown deep down the field to Evans or on a deep crossing pattern to Owens. These are what the pair of pass catchers does best. With Marshawn Lynch now back from suspension and the weather soon to turn cold, the Buffalo receivers will continue to be difficult to start any given week. Let's remember that coach Dick Jauron is a very conservative coach, who will not call many passing plays. With the ticking timebomb of Owens, never knowing when it will go off, this team could implode any week. Sell after a big game before the tick, tick, tick, BOOOOOOOOM!

Tight Ends

Zach Miller gets few scoring opportunities in the Oakland offense. The Raiders struggle to move the ball with JaMarcus Russell under center. Miller is a favorite target of Russell, but the poor play at quarterback lends to many underwhelming fantasy games. Sell Miller as a top tight end option after a good game.

Weekly Specials

Buy of the Week

Marion Barber has played very well this season before injuring his quadriceps in week two against the Giants. Barber was enjoying a great game before the injury. It was good to see him back in action against the Broncos. He is a very strong runner that will get enough carries to be a startable RB2 most every week. In addition, Barber gets the goal line carries in Dallas. The recent success of Tashard Choice, and even Felix Jones before his injury, overshadows the how well Barber was playing. With so many running backs disappointing this season, Barber is a very solid starter when healthy.

Sale of the Week

In an article focused on players to sell quickly, Santana Moss takes the cake. He is a player to sell high this week. There is no way Jason Campbell can keep up the pace. This is Jason Campbell we are talking about. You know, the quarterback that either misses Moss by ten yards on a long pass or throws the ball two yards over the diminutive receiver's head on an out pattern. Moss has always been a streaky receiver ... even with good quarterback play. Sell high if you can. If that is not possible, wait until another big week. Moss is the only viable wide receiver in Washington. Opposing defense are dedicating to slowing he and tight end Chris Cooley in the passing game.