The Marketplace - Week 3

Posted 9/22 by Jeff Tefertiller and Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

This will be a weekly feature looking at the values of players in all leagues, from redraft to dynasty. The focus will be on identifying changes in player values beforehand in order to either buy a player low or sell a player high. It does not matter what type of league you are in, some players are gaining value and some are plummeting. Each week, we will look at a different group of players and examine why they are worth consideration to buy or sell. At the bottom of the article, there will be a "Buy of the Week" and a "Sale of the Week". This week, we are exploring players that are expensive, but well worth the price.

Retail Priced and Worth Every Nickel

Many times, there are players that are expensive, but are still worth acquiring. Elite players, and those that might soon be elite fantasy players, are difficult to come by. It is not cheap to buy fantasy starters. But, it does little good to have value sitting on your bench that you might use to upgrade your starters. So, many fantasy owners look how to sell quantity for quality. The only issue is that you have to acquire an actual stud, not just fools gold.

Since this topic is one that could suffer from differing viewpoints depending on league and roster size, we will organize these players assuming a 12-team, 25 players rostered, and an average number of starters each week. We will look for a starter and at least one backup for each position.

Quarterback

Drew Brees has been nothing short of incredible to start this season. He has thrown nine touchdown passes in two games. Few thought the Saints would be able to go into Philadelphia and throw the ball up and down the field. Brees has led his fantasy owners to good records so far. Acquire him if you can. Brees spreads the ball around to a variety of receivers.

Ben Roethlisberger had a tremendous opening game against the Tennessee Titans. He followed it up with a respectable game against the Chicago Bears. The schedule will get easier. The lack of a viable running game put the onus square on the shoulders of "Big Ben". He finds Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward for big plays. Holmes looks to be picking up from where he left off in the Super Bowl. He gives the Steelers a big play threat, but needs to limit the drops. Ward is Mr. Reliable. Add in veterans Heath Miller (at tight end) and Mewelde Moore (receiving back) and it is easy to see why many are high on Roethlisberger's prospects for a big 2009 season. With the price of a fantasy backup, Roethlisberger might become an every-week starter for many fantasy teams.

Running Back

Adrian Peterson has proven this season that he is the unquestioned top back in fantasy football. He has enjoyed two strong games to start the season. The Minnesota Viking offensive line has done a great job opening up running lanes. Peterson offers a great blend of size and speed. His monster game in week one was just another day for the former Oklahoma Sooner. For those thinking of acquiring Peterson, it is advisable to get Chester Taylor thrown into the deal. Peterson's hard-running style opens him up to getting nicked up. Taylor is a startable RB1 if Peterson is out of the lineup.

Kevin Smith is in a situation to succeed. The Lions have no other real options in the running game. In addition, Smith is used extensively in the passing game. Detroit looks to run the ball more under the new regime of Jim Schwartz. Oddly, the old coaching staff only gave Smith 70 carries in the first eight games of the 2008 season. He was still able to finish the season as a good fantasy RB2. If preseason and the first two games are any indication, the Lions will try to get Smith the ball as much as possible. Smith has not had much room to run this season, but has been productive as a receiver. This will allow him to be a strong fantasy RB2 most weeks.

Ray Rice is still a relative unknown for many fantasy footballers. He should get the most touches this season in the run-heavy Baltimore Raven offense. Yes, he will split carries with Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain, but Rice will get most all of the receptions as well. The Ravens rely on the running game and want Rice to be the back of the future. The only concern is the short yardage scores by McGahee. Rice should produce fantasy RB2 statistics many weeks at a RB3 price.

Wide Receiver

Randy Moss has been my WR1 all offseason. He, and quarterback Tom Brady, are primed for another great season. He has not lost a step. The week two game against the Jets was a poor one for Moss, and the entire Patriot offense, statistically. But, he will have some huge weeks. The injury to Tom Brady had a massive effect last season. Matt Cassel just does not have the arm nor the savvy to enable Moss to be the top receiver in football. Oh, how quickly many forget the 2007 season. Moss may not reach the 2007 level of production, but he can easily be the top fantasy producer at the position. With so many question marks for the other top receivers, Moss is the early choice to finish the season as WR1.

Chad Ochocinco looks to be back to the pre-2008 form. Ochocinco is a playmaker. Now that Carson Palmer and Ochocinco are healthy, the Bengal Passing game will have some big games. The Packer game this past week was a tough one for the Cincinnati passing offense, but there will be big games ahead. The absence of a true WR2 for the Bengals should only better the odds of Ochocinco having a big season. Both Coles and Henry have disappointed so far this year. This is the time to acquire Ochocinco, before he has one of his typical HUGE games. Fantasy owners have complained about his inconsistency in the past, but that was as a fantasy WR1. As a WR2, his "bad" games are still not that bad. But, the big games likely give fantasy owners a win for the week.

Jerricho Cotchery gets little respect in fantasy leagues. While everyone is talking about the sensational rookie, Cotchery is the underrated performer. He gives the Jets their only downfield threat. Fantasy owners can expect him to quietly have close to 1,000 receiving yards and a half-dozen scores. The Jets face the Titans this week. Tennessee used to be a rough matchup, but not any more. The Steelers and Texans have enjoyed big games through the air against the Titans. Cotchery makes for a safe and reliable fantasy WR3 option. Getting a NFL WR1 on a good passing offense as a WR3 is great for your fantasy team.

Tight End

John Carlson started the season with a BANG! He accumulated almost 100 receiving yards and a pair of scoring grabs. The Seahawks do not have many weapons in the passing game. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson are pedestrian compared to most of the NFL teams' starting wide receivers. Carlson is one of the cheaper fantasy TE1s but will still not be cheap. He is worth every penny. The first two weeks may just be a shadow of what is to come. The injury to Matt Hasselbeck will only mean more passes to Carlson. Seneca Wallace likes the shorter passes, setting up Carlson for some big games.

Visanthe Shiancoe is coming off a Top 5 finish in 2008. Oddly, he is a backup for many in fantasyland. He had a disappointing week one while the running game ran all over the Cleveland Browns. In week two, Shiancoe only had one catch, a one-yard scoring grab from Brett Favre. The matchup against the Lions did not allow Shiancoe to get fully involved in the Viking pass offense. It will not be long until we see a big game from the athletic tight end. Brett Favre likes throwing to the tight end position. But, the first two weeks have been games that the Viking passer has not needed to throw much.

Weekly Specials

Buy of the Week

Johnny Knox has amassed over 150 receiving yards in the first two games this season. This is against the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was able to get open with ease against a very talented Steelers defense. Knox even as a rookie, has earned the trust of quarterback Jay Cutler. He is a player that is available on many waiver wires but could be an every-week fantasy starter by midseason. Cutler will throw the ball deep and could help Knox emerge as the WR2 in Chicago very soon.

Sell of the Week

Brett Favre does not have many games left. Yes, this week's game against the Lions overshadowed how little he has left in the tank. But, that is what makes this the time to sell. Favre has stated that he has doubts as to whether he can make it through the season healthy. The veteran is still recovering from a bum elbow and is obviously not the player he once was. This season will be a long one for Favre, and his fantasy owners. This is the time to sell. It is much better to sell him now, and he play all 16 games, than to hold him and have the graybeard be lost for the season, and you have nothing.