A look at Second Year Wide Receivers

Posted 6/14 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team. This study will examine when is the best time to purchase young receivers for your fantasy team. Many times, young wideouts need time to develop. Every offensive system is different and only a select few are prepared and have the skill-set to play well right out of college. Fantasy owners underestimate the time it takes adjusting to the pro game. These youngsters were able to dominate at the collegiate level with mere athletic ability and speed, but there are many athletic, fast corners in the NFL that will not aid in the transition. But, talent will prevail over time.

Devin Thomas

Devin Thomas was raw coming out of Michigan State last season. He struggled to get on to the field because he lacked many of the things that NFL receivers must possess. He was slow picking up the playbook. He was not a keen route runner. Thomas had one good season for the Spartans before making the jump to the NFL. This is after coming from the junior college level. So, Thomas went from being a player that could get by on his athletic ability to one that needed to refine his skills. With another offseason to work with the coaching staff, he could be primed for a breakout season.

Outlook: Devin Thomas is still a relatively raw prospect for the Redskins. He will be given every opportunity to showcase his ability and vie for a starting spot early in the season. The lack of strong quarterback play could hinder the production of all of the Washington receivers. The team needs Jason Campbell to step up. If so, Thomas could make a huge impact this season if he progresses like the coaching staff expects. It is expected that offseason eye surgery will make a tremendous difference in Thomas' production. Plus, he seems much more committed to further developing his craft this year. He could be primed for a breakout.
Store: Old Navy.
Price: A 2009 2nd round pick and a good prospect.
Recommendation: Buy. Thomas has upside and the Redskins still have a need at the receiver position. As a dynasty prospect, Thomas offers plenty of upside.

Jordy Nelson

Jordy Nelson has the look of a productive NFL receiver. He is big and deceptively fast. Nelson has very good hands and is a tremendous route runner. He gives Aaron Rodgers a solid security blanket for the future. The explosive Packer offense has four strong receivers which should limit Nelson's 2009 opportunity. He will see plenty of time in the slot, but is unlikely to see many targets unless there is an injury to one of the other pass catchers.

Outlook: This might be Donald Driver's last season in Green Bay. He may or may not retire versus moving to another team in 2010. He is owed a large bonus next offseason that the team may choose not to pay with the three young pass catchers. If the veteran departs, it will leave Jordy Nelson and James Jones to start opposite Jennings. This year will provide a great opportunity for the youngster from Kansas State to shine and prove he deserves the job in 2010.
Store: Macy's.
Price: A 2009 2nd round pick or a good prospect.
Recommendation: Buy. Jordy Nelson look like a legitimate player in the league. This is the time to buy, while Driver is still with the team. Owners might initially offer a lower trade offer to see if they can "steal" the young wideout, but savvy owners will only want a very good offer. By this time next year, the price for Jordy Nelson could very well be high.

James Hardy

As a rookie, James Hardy flashed little before being lost for the season with a knee injury. The Bills were searching for the right complement to Lee Evans. After drafting Hardy, Buffalo thought they had one, but the transition time for the youngster took longer than most expected. The knee injury at the end of the 2008 season will make it difficult for the former Hoosier to make a difference this season. In college, Hardy was able to use his size to make catches, but he needs refinement before he will make any impact in the NFL. Hardy was raw before injury and now is left with nothing but time to work on his routes and his hands. He lacks speed and quickness but can be a viable NFL receiver if he hones his craft.

Outlook: The Bills are now deep at the receiver position after bringing in Terrell Owens to start opposite Lee Evans. The team also has Stevie Johnson who showed glimpses his rookie season. Hardy is not likely to be able to make much of a difference this season.
Store: The Gap.
Price: A 2009 3rd round pick and a decent prospect.
Recommendation: Hold or Sell. It does not appear as though Hardy will emerge soon enough for fantasy owners. He does have potential, but needs to develop quickly to make an impact worthy of the roster space.

Malcolm Kelly

Malcolm Kelly was a very good prospect coming out of Oklahoma. His ability is overshadowed by the knee injuries. Kelly is still struggling to regain his healthy form. He is a polished, explosive receiver that needs to get and stay healthy if he is going to make an impact on the Redskins. He has loads of potential and can make some big plays. Malcolm Kelly looks to have a long and very productive career in front him if he can put the knee issues behind him.

Outlook: Malcolm Kelly could be a top young dynasty receiver. The knee injuries have been reported to be serious, but it is difficult to know. Kelly is a smooth athlete that has the ability to make plays. He has soft hands and runs great routes. His future is bright, but very dependent on the knees.
Store: Dillards
Price: A 2009 2nd round pick or a decent prospect.
Recommendation: Buy if you think he can get past the knee injury. He has the talent to be a Top 10 player at his position, all he needs is to get past the injuries. If you think he can shake the knee injuries, the price should be low to acquire the former Sooner.

Mario Manningham

Mario Manningham struggled mightily as a rookie. Things started off poorly when he lied, then recanted, about smoking marijuana at the NFL Combine. Manningham had trouble picking up the Giants' playbook and could take a step forward in his development with another offseason to develop. But, the reality is that he is still far behind other players at the position for the Giants. He rarely saw the field as a rookie and will need to show a lot of talent to emerge over the other young receivers. The former Wolverine was a productive player at Michigan. He was able to make big plays and was Chad Henne's primary target when he needed a clutch play. He has yet to show that type of potential in the Big Apple.

Outlook: The Giants are looking to replace both of their two veteran starting receivers from last season, Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress. The team drafted Hakeem Nicks to be the heir apparent. The Giants also have Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith, and Sinorice Moss vying for playing time. There is opportunity for Manningham to produce, but he needs to increase his effort and commitment to refining the finer parts of the position. His hands and his maturity are two of the bigger issues for the former Michigan star.
Store: The Dollar Store
Price: A 2009 3rd round pick or a prospect.
Recommendation: Buy if you believe he can get his head screwed on straight. Manningham has the ability to be a topflight fantasy receiver, but will need to mature as a person and a receiver to do so. His upside is substantial, but his floor is as low as any. There is nothing for certain with the former Wolverine.

Keenan Burton

Keenan Burton has the potential to be as good as any of the receivers listed, but he has a ways to go in his development. Mostly, he needs to be able to stay healthy. It was a problem for him at Kentucky. Being on the Saint Louis Rams does not help matters. The Rams are a bad team, with a poor offensive line, and a rookie head coach. The good news is that the team has few options at the receiver position. Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson are the only other viable receivers in Saint Louis. Burton will need to shake the injury bug in order to fulfill his potential for the Rams.

Outlook: Burton has the ability to be a better receiver than Laurent Robinson, but injuries have stunted his development. The Rams will have a better passing game in 2009 than in 2008. Marc Bulger should rebound from an atrocious 2008 season. The offensive line is still less than ideal with the loss of Orlando Pace. The new coaching staff will look to run the ball to take the pressure off of the veteran passer. Burton is definitely a player that could surprise this season if he can stay healthy.
Store: J.C. Penney.
Price: A 2009 3rd round pick .
Recommendation: Buy if you can find a Burton owner willing to part with him. You might even point to the injury history of Burton and how Robinson was "brought in to be the starter". Keenan Burton is a smooth athlete that has big play ability. He has the talent, just needs to remain in good health.

Donnie Avery, Eddie Royal, and DeSean Jackson were omitted because they are "buys" for most every fantasy player. These three young players could be future All Pro players at the position. Fantasy owners should look at several of the above receivers as options for the future. This might be the last offseason to acquire these pass catchers at a reasonable price. Most of the receivers above are undervalued and could surprise in year two of their young careers.