Swing For the Fences - Finding Late WR Value
Posted 8/26 by Jeff Tefertiller - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Fantasy owners are looking for value at the bottom of fantasy drafts. So many wasted picks in years gone by. What should we be looking for in these late picks? Above all else, any player taken in the last few rounds has to be startable for your fantasy team. Would you feel comfortable starting this player any given week? We will be looking for players that are easily startable if given the opportunity. This is the third and last in a three-part series examining the players having value late in fantasy drafts. This installment will be on the wide receiver position.
Most of the pass catchers at the end of fantasy drafts are not the top receiver for their NFL teams. They play behind or opposite very good pass catchers. The first question we have to ask ourselves why the top wideout is elite; is it because the stud player has incredible talent or does he enjoy success due to a great situation. This is the starting point for identifying wide receivers at the bottom of the draft that could be viable starting options for you fantasy team. There are two metrics we will be using as variables to identify players that offer very good value: a. great situation to succeed if given the opportunity and b. obviously, the player needs to posses talent. We are only considering receivers with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of WR49 or later. Here are some players that fit this strategy:
Chris Henry
Chris Henry has shown renewed dedication and maturity this season. He has always possessed the athletic ability to be a star in the NFL. But, the stunning physical qualities had allowed him to get by without committing himself to becoming a better wideout. After finally putting his legal issues behind him (at least for now), Henry has demonstrated amazing playmaking ability this preseason. Fantasy owners were alerted to Henry with the accolades uttered by quarterback Carson Palmer during the Bengals' training camp. While Henry will likely play the WR3 position this season, he could assert himself into fantasy stardom if Chad Ochocinco misses any time due to injury as he did last season. Laveranues Coles should start opposite Ochocinco, but is merely a possession receiver at this point in his career. As long as Palmer is healthy, Henry will hold huge potential for fantasy owners if anything were to happen to Ochocinco or Coles.
Pierre Garcon
Garcon is a player that is an unknown for many casual football fans. He is in his second season out of tiny Mount Union after being selected in the sixth round of 2008 NFL Draft. The 2008 season was mainly a learning one for Garcon, who spent most of his time on special teams. But, the departure of Marvin Harrison has left a massive void in the Indianapolis Colt offense. Garcon is in competition to start opposite Reggie Wayne, which would move Anthony Gonzalez to the slot. If anything were to happen to Wayne, Garcon would be the main beneficiary. He is still learning the position as a professional, but looks smooth. Do not underestimate Garcon's role and production if he were thrust into a starring role. With Peyton Manning under center, Garcon would a viable fantasy receiver each week.
Laurent Robinson
Laurent Robinson came to the St. Louis Rams via trade from the Atlanta Falcons. The Rams have few weapons in the passing game for quarterback Marc Bulger. Donnie Avery is coming back from a foot injury. He is the lone "proven" wide receiver and is just a second-year player himself. Robinson and Keenan Burton are battling to start opposite Avery, with Ronald Curry lining up in the slot. The Avery injury has shown us that Robinson is the wide receiver who would benefit most if Avery were to miss games during the regular season. The Ram offense will try to feature the running game with Steven Jackson. But, the injury history of Jackson and the porous defense should lead to plenty of pass attempts, and opportunities for the wideouts.
Robert Meachem
Meachem has disappointed since being drafted from the Tennessee Volunteers. He was the high school teammate of Felix Jones at Tulsa Washington. Meachem has always possessed the speed and talent to be an effective receiver in the NFL. The high-flying Saint offense allows the receivers to be very productive. Last year, the injuries to Marques Colston and Reggie Bush opened the door for Lance Moore to emerge and have an outstanding season. Meachem has eclipsed Devery Henderson on the depth chart and would profit if given the opportunity. Meachem has improved this offseason. He was raw coming out of college but has improved this offseason. This could be the year the light bulb comes on for him. Meachem would be a startable receiver if Colston is injured again this season.
Joey Galloway
Yes, Joey Galloway is older than many NFL coaches. He was a stud receiver for many seasons for several teams. Galloway will turn 38 years old during the season and is not the WR1 he was earlier in his career. How soon we forget that he finished as the WR21 in 2007 before suffering through an injury-plagued 2008 season. Now, the veteran is in an ideal situation for this stage in his career. He will start opposite Randy Moss, with Wes Welker taking his customary slot position for the New England Patriots. Tom Brady is healthy and looks to be back in 2007 form. The Patriot offense, under the guidance of Brady, is as prolific as any in the league. Galloway would certainly be in a position to take advantage if Moss misses any game time. Galloway has clearly lost a step, but could still be productive in the pass-happy Patriot offense.
Patrick Crayton
The Dallas Cowboys have put themselves in a position where they have few options at the wide receiver position. The team has inconsistent Roy Williams as the WR1, with little else behind him. Patrick Crayton, who has been the WR3 so far in his career, is slated as the starter opposite Williams. Sam Hurd has the lead over Miles Austin for the WR3 spot Crayton once held. Tight end Jason Witten may be the Cowboys' leading receiver this year, but the receiving corps will need to aid Tony Romo. Williams has missed considerable action in his career, playing in all 16 games in only one of six seasons. If Williams is out of the lineup, Crayton will be the wide receiver to own in Dallas.
Sidney Rice
Rice is entering year three of his career, but will only turn 23 years old on September 1. He has unlimited athletic ability, but has battled injuries since coming out of South Carolina as a redshirt sophomore. Given his young age, it is understandable that Rice is still learning the ropes as a NFL receiver. As a rookie in 2007, he flashed oodles of potential, giving high hopes to Viking fans. But, the team has since brought in Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin to upgrade the receiver position. With the venerable Brett Favre now in town, Rice could have some big games. The Vikings could be throwing down the field more with the graybeard and Sage Rosenfels now in the Twin Cities. Berrian has been injured this preseason and Harvin is a rookie. Rice could produce good numbers if Berrian's injury lingers.
James Jones
The Packers have some great weapons for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver lead the way for the receivers. But, Green Bay also has impressive youngsters, James Jones and Jordy Nelson waiting in the wings. Jones is a big play receiver who has averaged over 14 yards a reception in his two seasons as a pro. Jones battled injuries most of last season, but appears to be healthy and ready to contribute. Early reports have him playing well and running as the team's third receiver. If Jennings suffers and injury or Driver finally wears down, Jones is a player that could emerge as an outstanding fantasy option at the receiver position in the high-powered Packer offense.