Swing For the Fences - Finding Late RB Value
Posted 8/26 by Jeff Tefertiller - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Fantasy owners are on the search for value at the bottom of fantasy drafts. Most fantasy footballers struggle sorting out which players could explode at the bottom of their teams' rosters. What should we be looking for in a player? Above all else, any player taken in the last few rounds has to be startable for your fantasy team. What does this mean? Well, you have to think what set of events would have to occur for you to insert the player into the starting lineup. Then, how comfortable are you starting the player? We will be looking for players that are startable that we can start with confidence. We are looking for players that offer considerable value, not necessarily sleepers. This is the second in a three-part series examining the players having value late in fantasy drafts. This installment will be on the running back position.
Obviously, the running backs at the end of fantasy drafts are not starters for their NFL teams. Many back up very good ball carriers. The first question we have to ask ourselves is if the star player has incredible talent or does he enjoy success due to a great situation. This is the starting point for identifying players at the bottom of the draft that could be viable starting options for your fantasy team. There are three things we will be using as variables to identify players that offer very good value: a. great situation to succeed, b. talent in the back up runner, and c. few things that have to happen to give the back up opportunity. We are only considering backs with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of RB49 or later. Here are some players that fit this strategy:
Kevin Jones
Jones is a player that was left for dead after his latest knee injury. He is now Matt Forte's backup in Chicago. But, we all too soon forget how productive Jones was in Detroit. In his four seasons playing in the Motor City, even with missing games each year, Jones still finished RB31 or better every season. The training camp reports have been very positive about Jones regaining the quickness and burst he displayed in Detroit. Forte had a whopping 379 touches last season as a rookie. The Bears have already stated that they want to limit the usage on their stud runner this season. So, Jones will have a role in the passing game and sporadically during the game. But, his value explodes if Forte misses time. The Bears have a very good offensive line, much better than the one Jones ran behind in Detroit. Jones could be a viable fantasy RB2 if Forte were to miss games.
Tashard Choice
Tashard Choice is a player that showed immense talent last season after being thrust into action with injuries to Marion Barber and Felix Jones. The rookie did not disappoint. He faced four of the premier rush defenses in the NFL and shined. Choice more than held his own. Against the Steelers, Giants, Ravens and Eagles, Choice carried the ball a total of 62 times for 325 yards and scored a pair of touchdowns. He also added 163 yards through the air. Add it all up and you get very impressive statistics for a runner that is not selected high in drafts. He does play behind Barber still, but the Cowboys have vowed to get the youngster carries. His upside comes with any missed action for either Barber or Jones. It is very likely that one or both is out of the lineup for a few games this season.
Ladell Betts
Finished as RB10 in 2006 when Portis missed time with injury. Portis is still young, but has a large amount of career touches. Portis has 2,285 touches in his short career. After missing eight games in 2006, the Redskins have given the veteran back 742 touches the past two seasons. Yes, that is a two-year total for a back that has averaged over 300 touches a season for his seven-year career. But, the heavy workload caught up to Portis over the last half of the 2008 season. His yards per carry average plummeted. The Washington coaching staff recognized it. They have already stated their desire to use Betts to lessen his load. Betts will have a role on third downs and obvious passing situations. But, the value from the low pick comes if Portis is injured again. Betts was a viable RB1 in 2006 even though Portis only missed half of the season. Betts has upside, considerable upside.
Mike Goodson
Goodson is not on the radar for most fantasy owners. He is a rookie from Texas A&M. His skill-set is one based on quickness and elusiveness. Goodson is the third back in Carolina. Why does he have value? Well, he plays behind two runners that have found it difficult to remain healthy throughout their respective college and professional careers. Further, Jonathan Stewart has missed most of preseason with a lingering injury. If either he or DeAngelo Williams is out for any length of time, which is likely, Goodson becomes a decent flex option ... especially in PPR (points Per Reception) leagues. Goodson is a very good receiver that can make big plays.
Shonn Greene
Greene is another rookie that looks to be buried behind two veteran rushers. The Jets have the AFC leading rusher Thomas Jones and the playmaking Leon Washington ahead of the rookie. But, Greene has enjoyed a strong preseason. Jones is 31 years old and is in the last year of his contract. He could be phased out later in the season. The Jets will want to get an extended look at the former Iowa Hawkeye. The team gave up a lot to move up and take Greene in April's NFL Draft. New York has a very good offensive line. The Jets will be starting a rookie passer most of the season and will employ a conservative gameplan. They will rely on the running game to carry the offense. Greene could be a factor if anything were to happen to Jones or if/when the Jets are out of contention .
Javon Ringer
Ringer slipped in this year's NFL Draft due to an injury resulting from being overused at Michigan State. The rookie has looked stellar in preseason. The Titans are a running team. Ringer will be the team's third running back this season. He plays behind second-year sensation Chris Johnson and LenDale White. If either misses extended action, Ringer could surprise. Ringer is short, but not small. He is quick and is an adept receiver out of the backfield. Given the Titans' ability to run the ball, Ringer could be a Top 20 fantasy player if he gets the opportunity.
Glenn Coffee
Most observers thought the San Francisco 49ers reached for Coffee in the third round of the Draft. The former Alabama star has excelled in training camp and preseason. The 49ers have been looking to ease the workload of Frank Gore for some time. The veteran has seen his numbers slide the past few years and the team wants to extend his career. Coffee is a versatile back that can help the San Francisco offense as a third down back or to spell Gore a few times each game. He is a tough runner and is not afraid to run between the tackles. Coffee offers plenty of upside if Gore is out of the lineup. Coach Mike Singletary wants to establish a strong running game. He has heaped praise on the rookie. The coach has said he was "Very excited about what I saw out of him," and added "Tough runner, I thought he did a decent job in his pass protection." Adding to Coffee's value is the injury to Thomas Clayton. Clayton was placed on injury reserve this past week.