Swing For the Fences - Finding Late QB Value
Posted 8/26 by Jeff Tefertiller - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Each and every season value appears at the bottom of fantasy drafts. Most fantasy drafters have a difficult time sorting out which players would provide the most value for their teams. What should we look for? Above all else, any player taken in the last few rounds has to be startable for your fantasy team. What does this mean? Well, you have to think what set of circumstances would have to occur for you to insert the player into the starting lineup. Then, how comfortable are you starting the player? We will be looking for players that are startable. If not, draft someone who we would feel comfortable starting. We are looking for players that offer considerable value, not necessarily sleepers. This is the first in a three-part series examining the players having value late in fantasy drafts.
This first article in the series will examine the quarterback position. At the quarterback position, we will be looking for upside due to situation and the player's talent. In a standard twelve team league, it is usually not worthwhile to draft a backup passer with limited upside. It is doubtful that Shaun Hill, JaMarcus Russell, or a slew of other NFL starters will help your fantasy team make the playoffs. If you take a top quarterback in the draft, will Mark Sanchez or Brady Quinn help you make the playoffs if the starter were to go down? The answer is "not likely". So, how is it best to handle the situation? If you draft Tom Brady, you have three options, with two much better than the third. You can just carry Brady on the roster and pick up another quarterback before the week eight bye week. But, you have no insurance in case the unthinkable happens ... again. You are betting that you can get the backup, Kevin O'Connell, before anyone else. In most leagues, this is not likely. Different leagues use many types of waiver wire systems, but the chances are not high of getting the player you need at the exact time you need him. As stated above, another option for you is taking a weak back up that offers no upside and is nothing more than a bye week filler. The last option is one that is little used but is the focus point of this series. When drafting good fantasy passers, the offensive system allows for the backup to produce quality fantasy numbers when called upon. The former clipboard holders offer more upside than the average fantasy QB2. In addition, the second quarterback can be selected very late in the draft. Yes, this means using two roster spots on the quarterback position and still there is a need to cover the bye week. But, passers emerge on the waiver wire every year. They are usually not good enough to lead a fantasy team deep into the playoffs, but rather are good bye week replacements. The third option above should net the highest upside, with insurance for downside risk, for your fantasy team. Here are some options for this strategy.
Kevin O'Connell
Last season, Matt Cassel proved that the New England Patriot offense can help the quarterback put up good fantasy numbers. In this offense, a starting O'Connell is a better option than most fantasy backups. It always helps to have Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and company as weapons. Cassel finished as fantasy QB8 last season after being thrust into action after the nasty Brady injury in week one. This is after many opined that Cassel's job was in jeopardy after a lousy preseason. In many leagues, the second-year O'Connell goes undrafted. But, with the week eight bye, he is worthy of a spot until then, just as cheap insurance.
Mark Brunell
Brunell is a forgotten man since leaving Jacksonville. He bounced to Washington for a few seasons before being shown the door. Brunell currently backs up Drew Brees in one of the most potent passing offenses in the NFL. Brunell has looking surprisingly efficient in the limited action. He is able to make the correct read and get the ball to the open receiver. The Saint offense is full of play-makers. Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey and others help the New Orleans passer enjoy productive fantasy games. While Brunell is as old as dirt (or Brett Favre), he offers stability to the team. The lefty has thrown for over 31,000 yards in his NFL career. What is most impressive is that he has averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt on some less that stellar Jaguar and Redskin passing offenses. Brunell could easily be a Top 10 fantasy passer if Brees misses time. While Brunell may not throw the ball 35 times a game like Brees, the lack of a stout running game would ensure enough pass attempts to be a very viable option most weeks.
Matt Leinart
Leinart is a player that many have now given up on. He was slated to be the starter last preseason before yielding to Kurt Warner. Now, it is he who makes for the great value pick at the end of the draft. Warner is still ailing from the offseason hip surgery. He has been limping. The aging star is not known for his durability. Last year was a rare occurrence of him playing in all 16 games during the season. Admittedly, Leinart has been something of a disappointment since leaving Southern California. But, there have been several reports of his maturation and development. With Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, any Arizona quarterback has considerable fantasy potential. The one issue with the Warner/Leinart combination is the early bye, occurring in week four of the season. But, with Warner's health history, it is advisable to nab Leinart just for insurance. Do not believe the rhetoric that Leinart is fighting for his job. This is just to motivate the young quarterback.
Michael Vick
Vick landed in a great situation with the Philadelphia Eagles. He plays behind a Donovan McNabb in a potent offense, full of speed merchants at almost every position. McNabb played in all 16 games last season for the first time since the 2003 season. He has played in ten games or fewer in three of the last seven seasons. So, there is reason to think that Vick could see time as quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles presently only have Kevin Kolb, Vick and A.J. Feeley behind McNabb. Neither Kolb nor Feeley generate much confidence if McNabb were to miss extended action. Vick under center would make the Eagles a nightmare to defend with the other speed players on offense. It may take him a few weeks to get up to speed after being out of football for a couple of years, but it is entirely possible that Michael Vick helps some fantasy teams to the playoffs ... and maybe beyond.
Chris Simms
No, Kyle Orton is not an elite quarterback, but he will be the starting quarterback for many fantasy teams this season. The Denver Broncos will be a pass-happy offense under the guidance of Josh McDaniels. It is expected that the Broncos will pass a ton. The team is loaded with good receivers and has a rookie as the best option carrying the pigskin. Denver has a very tough schedule starting in week four. The easiest defense they play will either be Dallas or San Diego, and both are well above average. Orton is in the last year of his contract. If he does not play well early in the season, the team will want to know what they have in Simms. The Bronco defense re-defines the word "porous" and is ill-suited to make the transition to the "3-4" alignment the coaches desire. The offense will be left to play catch up most weeks. Simms could benefit from this situation. He has the chance to prove that the starting job in 2010 should be his and his alone. Keep an eye on Simms' ankle injury, which occurred against the Seahawks in week two of the preseason. It should be fine in a couple of weeks.