Dynasty Preseason Players To Sell
Posted 8/21 by Jeff Tefertiller - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
This is the time of year that hopes and expectations are reaching a crescendo. Fans and fantasy owners want to believe the best about their players. But, we know from history that there will invariably be players that disappoint for one reason or another. No, we do not have a crystal ball to predict injury or ineffective play. The focus is not who will disappoint in preseason or early in the season as much as identifying players that are worth a lot more today than they should be next offseason for a variety of reasons.
We will only look at players having some market value. These players will be broken down by situation and circumstance. This is the first in a two-part series looking at players to look at selling in dynasty leagues. Fantasy owners should always be conscious of players values, identifying which could see their values rise and which will nosedive. This is the first article looking at players who should see their values decrease over the next season.
Quarterbacks who will either disappoint owners or have a good chance to see their values plummet
Trent Edwards - The Edwards hype is in full force. On the outside, it looks like he is set up for a great season. The team is using a no-huddle offense. The addition of Terrell Owens has many looking to Edwards with increased anticipation. But, Dick Jauron has not been prone to passing the ball around much since his first year as a head coach back in 1999. Since that season, his teams have finished 22nd or worse in passing yards each and every season. The offensive line is also a huge issue. The Bills traded stud left tackle, Jason Peters, to the Eagles. The Bills will have a new starter at each offensive line position this year. The poor line play could leave Edwards running for his life often. This is not good for a quarterback that has struggled with injuries throughout his college and professional careers. With Owens in the fold, and Jauron's penchant for losing, the team could implode. I do not like the odds of Edwards meeting or exceeding expectations. His value could take a huge hit this season.
JaMarcus Russell - Oh, JaMarcus, why do you get so many chances? I think I know the answer ... it starts with $$$$. But, have the Raiders not seen enough of him to know that he is unable to move the team down the field on a consistent basis? Can Russell lead the Raiders to victories? As though the heat was not on the ultra-sized passer enough, he shows up for training camp overweight. Many would think he might give some effort after the team brought in Jeff Garcia. The lack of viable receivers in Oakland will prohibit Russell from having any upside at all. Injured Chaz Schilens is the best wideout on the team ... and he will miss a few weeks. It is difficult to imagine Russell's value rising in this environment. It may take a change for the young quarterback to get the coaching and situation to thrive. But, that will not happen soon. There is a chance that Garcia is starting by midseason. He is the superior leader and passer.
Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck is coming off of an injury-plagued 2008 season. He is aging and has endured lingering back injuries of late. The Seahawks have an aging and underperforming offensive line. Add in little in terms of a running game and it is easy to appreciate the task ahead for Hasselbeck. Seattle did sign stud possession receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Houshmandzadeh is aging himself and had a very lackluster 9.8 yards per reception average. That was in the Cincinnati Bengal offense. The Seahawks have little else at the receiver position. This could set up Hasselbeck for a rough year. Even if he makes it through an entire season healthy, Hasselbeck's value will be peanuts at that time. And, that is best case. Fantasy owners will be hesitant to insert the veteran into the lineup this year. If you cannot imagine starting a player in fantasyland, it is best to trade him away and get a player you can feel more comfortable.
Marc Bulger - The 32-year old has struggled to stay upright of late. He will miss the rest of preseason with a broken pinky finger. The Ram offensive line is improved, but Bulger is fragile at this point in his career. In the last four seasons, he has missed 13 games. This is not good for fantasy owners. In addition, in this same time frame, Bulger has only tossed 60 touchdowns in 51 games. Even if he miraculously played all 16 games, throwing 19 touchdowns is his ceiling. Making matters worse is the foot injury to Donnie Avery, the only viable receiver on the roster. I expect the Rams to address the quarterback position in the 2010 NFL Draft. Coach Spagnuolo will want his own guy under center.
Josh Freeman - The rookie was drafted with high expectations by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Freeman is a big, athletic passer. He has struggled so far in training camp. Freeman is raw as a quarterback. It will speak volumes that Freeman cannot beat out notables like Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich. His freelancing style in college will need to be harnessed and polished in order for Freeman to make much difference in the NFL. Freeman is much further away from contributing to fantasy lineups than most realize. He could easily be buried on the Buccaneer bench all season. Even if Freeman plays, he will not be startable in fantasy leagues.
Players at the end of their career or those on last year of contract
Brian Westbrook - Westbrook has had a remarkable career. For a player that was thought to be undersized, the former Villanova star has been a perennial All Pro. His ability to run between the tackles, as well as awesome playmaking ability out of the backfield, has led to him being one of the most explosive runners in the NFL. Westbrook has a shot at the Hall of Fame after his career is finished. But, he is now on the downside of his playing career. Westbrook will be 30 years old before the season starts. He is recovering from a lingering ankle injury that will likely keep him out of the preseason games. Fantasy owners must ask themselves what would have to happen for Westbrook to be worth as much next offseason as he is today. It would have to be a lot. I do not even know if a combined 2,000 yards would be enough to keep his value static. This may be the last time to get any decent value for the talented Westbrook. When was the last time a 31 year old ball carrier was worth much?
LaDainian Tomlinson - Tomlinson is coming off of an injury-plagued season which led to a disappointing fantasy season. While he still finished the season as a fantasy RB1, he sill had an "off year". Tomlinson is now healthy and getting great publicity. Most onlookers are saying that he looks as good as ever. But, there is a huge catch for fantasy owners. Tomlinson turned 30 years old in June. Just like with Westbrook, when was the last time a 31 year old runner was worth what he was the offseason before? The odds are not good that Tomlinson can play well enough for fantasy owners to forget his age and continue to value him highly. In addition, the Chargers may use Darren Sproles more in the passing game this season. Sproles is a playmaker that will be difficult to keep on the sidelines. San Diego knows that Tomlinson's end is near. They drafted Gartrell Johnson to possibly be the heir apparent.
Thomas Jones - Jones is a runner that is currently seeing his value plummet even while coming off of a career season. He held out of most of the Jets training camp. Jones is in the last year of his contract so it is assumed this is the last season he will be a Jet in 2010. Add in the fact that New York gave several draft picks to move up to select Shonn Greene in April's NFL Draft. It appears that Greene is being groomed to take over for Jones at the end of the season .... or before. Jones is still a decent short-term option so there will be suitors for his services.
Chester Taylor - Taylor has value as the handcuff to Adrian Peterson. Taylor sees action in relief of Peterson and when the stud runner misses time. Taylor has been the third-down back for the Vikings. Well, this is the last season Taylor is under contract with Minnesota. The former Raven will be 30 years old in September. Taylor will be worth very little outside of Minnesota, and not playing behind Peterson on the depth chart. What makes Taylor worth so much is his potential upside. The Vikings have a great offensive line, making Taylor a great fantasy option if Peterson misses time. Chester Taylor is a player to sell if not needed this season as a fantasy option. He is a player to "rent" if a fantasy owner is in need of fantasy RB3 for 2009. He did finish as RB35 last season. This is one of those times where a fantasy owner must be able to objectively evaluate his team's chances of going far. If so, Taylor is a decent option. If not, sell to the Peterson owner.
Just a Hunch That These Players Could Tail Off This Year
Kurt Warner - Warner is now 38 years old. He is coming off of an outstanding season, both in terms of fantasy production and taking the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. Warner was not the starting passer at this time last year. Now, it is the veteran that is the unquestioned starter under center. There are a few issues that may hinder his production and value. Warner and the Cardinals lost offensive coordinator Todd Haley, who is the new head coach in Kansas City. In addition, Warner played in all 16 games for just the third time in his career. It is interesting that he has yet to play in all 16 games for two consecutive seasons. Warner has struggled with injuries throughout his illustrious career. There is a chance that if Warner misses extended action this season, he will be worth very little at age 39 years old at that time. Warner will need another monster season just to not see his value drop off drastically.
Brady Quinn - The Browns had high hopes for the former Golden Domer. Quinn looked sharp in spurts last season. But, is Brady Quinn really a player who could be a fantasy QB1? I do not think so. I am not even sure he can play well enough to hold off Derek Anderson and Brett Ratliff. The Browns, as a team, are a mess. Coach Mangini has a team void of much talent on the offensive side of the ball. The running game is anchored by the aging Jamal Lewis. So, Quinn will not have a strong running game which to rely on. Maybe the Browns passers can make plays through the air .... not a chance. The team has one proven receiver, Braylon Edwards. That is it. The next two best receivers are second round rookies Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi. Neither is a game changer. This could be a situation where we see the value of Quinn take a step back. It could be due to poor play and losing his job to Anderson or just ineptitude of the passing offense. In addition, the new coaching regime might want to bring in their own quarterback in 2010. There is much uncertainty and little upside for the near future.
Frank Gore - Gore has been getting lots of "props" from 49er coach Mike Singletary this offseason. In addition, many of his teammates say he has never looked better. Gore has seen his fantasy production tail off the last two seasons. He finished outside of the Top 12 backs last season, disappointing fantasy owners. In addition, his carries and yards per carry average are much lower than in 2006 when he was ultra-productive. But, Gore has been hit with nagging injuries of late. He missed a pair of games last season when fantasy owners needed him most. The price of Gore is much higher than his production warrants. The current 49er offense may not be able support a season like Gore had in 2006. Also, the team drafted Glen Coffee in the third round of April's NFL Draft. Coffee was drafted to ease the load of Gore. The bad news is that Gore needed all of those carries just to finish where we did. San Francisco has been looking for a rusher to take some of the work from Gore for the last few seasons. Any decrease in carries will further drop Gore's value in 2010.
Clinton Portis - Portis has been one of the most productive running backs over the past decade. He has been very durable for a ball carrier with so many career carries. The 2006 season was the last that he missed significant time. But, the Redskins have given him well over 300 carries the two seasons since the injury. Portis did wear down the last half of the season in 2008 with the heavy workload. He saw his yards per carry average drop considerably. Could this have been because he is showing signs of wear or because of the poor Washington offensive line? Probably both. Because of this, the Redskin coaching staff has vowed to get Ladell Betts more involved this season. There are several unanswered questions for Portis and his future. Is he wearing down with the large amount of career carries? Was the second half of last season a sign of things to come? Will he lose many touches to Betts? No matter the answers, there is little chance that his value will actually increase over the course of a year. However, there are very good odds that his value could decrease ... possibly substantially ... over that time period.
Joseph Addai - Addai is an enigma to many fantasy owners. He has great games followed by clunkers. He makes great runs to get the Colts down the field then takes himself out of the game when the team is in the redzone. With the drafting of Donald Brown, what can fantasy owners expect? First and foremost, throw the comparisons of Dominic Rhodes' role out the window. Brown is a far superior talent to Rhodes. So, what can we expect of Addai with the rookie in town? Addai should see most of the action early in the season. The Colts are a team that likes to ride the veterans. But, it will be difficult to keep Brown off the field as long as he can be effective in pass protection. I expect Brown to make enough of an impact that Addai will see his role, and fantasy value, shrink late in the season. Even if Addai has a good season, what are the odds his value increases unless Brown is injured? The Colts used a first round pick on the rookie. He will have a role, a substantial role, in the offense.
Willie Parker - For the 2009 season, Parker is an underrated back. He has been a forgotten player since the Steelers drafted Rashard Mendenhall. But, Parker is still expected to be the primary ball carrier for Pittsburgh. Parker may or may not be back next season. The team is very deep at the running back position with Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore. Parker is a capable rusher so he will not be without work, but the Steelers offense is well-suited for his skill-set. With Parker comes the chance for injury. I get the feeling that Parker will have a good season, but will either be phased out or elsewhere in 2010. While undervalued today, he could really see his value drop dramatically for the 2010 season. Parker is a prime candidate to sell after he has a good game or two.
Torry Holt - Holt is clearly not the same player he was a couple of years ago. He has lost a step ... or three. The former Rams' star could still be productive in Jacksonville this season. If so, it will be as a possession receiver. He cannot be a threat for yards after the catch anymore. Holt has battled serious knee issues for a few years now. It has impeded his ability to be the productive stud he was in the "Greatest Show on Turf" years for the St. Louis Rams. While the numbers could still be there for Holt this season, it will become blatantly obvious how his skills and abilities have diminished. For a receiver on the "wrong" side of 30 years old, his value will continue to decline. The poor pass offense in Jacksonville will not help matter, either.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Houshmandzadeh was very productive in Cincinnati the last few seasons. He was the top target for Carson Palmer. But, it became clear that Houshmandzadeh is not the same player he once was. He saw his yards per catch average drop below ten last season. Yes, the former Bengal is a possession receiver, but Seattle will need him to make plays. Adding to the risk for a down year is the change from Carson Palmer to Matt Hasselbeck. The Bengal passing offense is much more prolific than the Seahawks passing game. Plus, Hasselbeck has been plagued by injuries of late and is not a good bet to finish the season healthy. The Seattle offensive line is not good and will allow the aging passer to get beat up. Houshmandzadeh has seen his value slip this offseason. It might take a miracle for it to turn around. For this reason, he might be a good player to sell before Hasselbeck gets hurt and he has another rough season with a backup passer under center.
Note: Roy Williams and Lee Evans, would also be on this list but their market value has tailed off this offseason. They are two players I expect to be worth less next offseason than last even though both are relatively young. Williams looks to be in an ideal situation, but his inconsistent hands and effort will limit an otherwise good circumstance in Dallas. In the past, Evans has struggled to be fantasy relevant as the primary pass catcher in Buffalo. With Terrell Owens in town, the odds of a good season sank like an anchor in the ocean.