Dynasty Preseason Players To Buy
Posted 8/21 by Jeff Tefertiller - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
This is the time of year that the excitement is growing and the season is almost here. We do not have a crystal ball to predict injury or ineffective play. The focus will not be on the value of the player today, but rather on what the value could be in a year. Who will be worth more next offseason?
These players will be broken down by situation. There are several situations that could produce break out players. To truly break out, talent and situation must be present. But, the prices are always lowest when most feel one or the other is missing. It is easiest to buy a player at a reduced price when the situation looks bleak for short-term success.
Quarterbacks on the outs or forgotten in fantasy leagues
Jason Campbell - Jason Campbell started the 2008 season on fire. He, and primary receiver Santana Moss, had some very good games in the first eight weeks of the season. During this time, Campbell scored at least 20 fantasy points in four of those games. He tossed eight of his thirteen passing scores in the first half of the season. This was before he lost confidence and saw his production take a nosedive. Campbell is entering year two under the direction of quarterback guru, Jim Zorn. There are positive reports about Campbell taking charge in training camp. He is putting the unrest of the offseason behind him. Jason Campbell is a fantasy passer that could crack the Top 12 this season, especially if Devin Thomas steps up his game.
Michael Vick - Vick is not worth much in fantasy leagues. Now, as the backup to Donovan McNabb, many will be dumping Vick to the waiver wire. But, he is worth rostering in many leagues. Vick's contract in Philadelphia is really a one-year deal with an expensive team option for 2010. This means that Vick could take a year prove to everyone he is past this legal ordeal. Then, he would be available via trade or as a free agent. Plus, with McNabb's injury history, Vick could see extended action this season. He is a great player to stash at the bottom of a roster.
Matt Leinart - Leinart is the forgotten passer in Arizona. He was slated as the unquestioned starter this time last season while Warner was the backup ... with high upside. Now, the roles are reversed. Yes, there are reports that St. Pierre might beat out Leinart for the QB2 job, but is likely a ploy to motivate the young quarterback. The weapons alone make Leinart worth acquiring. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston all can make huge plays for their passer. Add in the age and injury history of Kurt Warner and you get a great situation for the party boy. There have been reports that Leinart has matured as a player and is developing. Leinart could easily be a fantasy QB1 if so ... and he gets the opportunity.
Sage Rosenfels - The Viking passer is the forgotten man once again with the Brett Favre epic saga brewing again. Sage has been dropped on waiver wires in many a league with Favre coming to the Twin Cities. But, Rosenfels is left to battle it out for the backup job. Favre is old, still injured, and not a sure thing to make it far into the season. Rosenfels could be a great, cheap option for fantasy owners. He makes plays. He knows how to get the ball down the field. But, Rosenfels is also well known for his turnovers. The game against Indianapolis last season is a good example. Rosenfels turned the ball over twice late in the game to give the Colts an unlikely victory. Rosenfels will probably be the starter at some point in the season, but who knows when. If so, he could be a decent low-end fantasy QB1.
Chad Henne - Henne was a productive passer at Michigan. He has been afforded the opportunity to sit behind and learn from Chad Pennington. This can only help Henne's development. Henne is an accurate passer that can make plays down the field. There is a very realistic chance that he sees action as a starter this season, especially if the Dolphins are not are competitive as last season. This could be Pennington's last season in Miami so the team will want to see what they have in the youngster.
QBs with upside that many still worry about
Matt Stafford - Stafford is a player that many still worry whether he will be any good. Will he begin the season behind Daunte Culpepper? Yes, that Daunte Culpepper. Will the Lions enable the rookie quarterback to be a productive fantasy passer? Who does the team have at wide receiver other than Calvin Johnson? There are a myriad of legitimate questions. Stafford has the talent to silence his critics and enjoy a long, productive career. This is the time to buy Stafford as fantasy owners see the questions more than the talent. His talent will prevail. It is a matter of time.
Matt Cassel - The Chiefs have a lot invested in their passer. They traded away a high pick for him, then gave the former Patriot oodles of money. So, why the optimism? Coach Todd Haley knows how to pass the ball from his days in Arizona. The Chiefs will throw the ball around the field. Also, the team is in the process of getting younger on both sides of the ball. Dwayne Bowe offers a young, athletic primary receiver. The Chiefs will be throwing to the receivers more often this season than in the past due to the trade of Tony Gonzalez. Bowe, Mark Bradley, Amani Toomer, and Bobby Engram will see plenty of targets. It might take the first half of the season in order to get into a groove, but Cassel has low-end fantasy QB1 upside. The entire Kansas City offense is a mess right now. It will take a while to sort out. The disappointing reports only help the price to be low to buy. The team has no option to replace Cassel.
RBs well thought of but on verge of breaking out
Ray Rice - Rice looks poised for a break out season. He should lead the Ravens ball carriers in rushing attempts. In addition, he is the best receiver of the rushers. It is likely that the Ravens will employ a three-headed committee with Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le'Ron McClain. But, Rice is the superior talent at this point in their respective careers. McGahee has struggled to be effective and McClain is used mostly in short yardage. While Rice's price tag might be high now, it will be even higher in just a few weeks. He is a great fit for the offense of Cam Cameron, the Ravens offensive coordinator. Cameron knows how to be productive in the running game. This will continue.
Kevin Smith - Smith is the unquestioned primary back in Detroit. He was not used much in the first half of his rookie season, but came on strong over the last eight games. He definitely has upside to be a fantasy RB1. Smith only had 70 carries in the first eight games but still finished as RB18. The new regime in Detroit will want to establish a strong running game to keep the defense off the field. Smith could be a player that surprises this season if he can hold up with a large workload. There is no other ball carrier to split carries. Smith is a good receiver as well. The Detroit Lions will be utilizing a one-cut rushing offense which fits Smiths' skill-set to a tee.
Young WRs that are undervalued
DeSean Jackson - Jackson looked very good as a rookie. He finished the season as fantasy WR29. With another season as a pro, he is a player that could take a large step forward. Jackson should be the top receiver in Philadelphia this season. Fantasy owners can expect Jackson to be legitimate fantasy WR2, maybe even a low-end WR1. He has tremendous speed and quickness. Jackson can get open with ease. He will be a big playmaker for the Eagles. While the price is high at this point, it could be much more expensive by midseason.
Donnie Avery - Avery looked quick as a rookie. With Holt now in Jacksonville, Avery is pushed into the primary receiver role in St. Louis. The recent foot injury may help him be more attainable in fantasy leagues. There is concern with the Ram offense. Can Bulger get enough time to find Avery? Avery's talent is legitimate, but the upside is less than a guy like Jackson above. Avery finished as WR39 last season in fantasy leagues. He can easily be a Top 25 fantasy wide receiver this season, if healthy. If you believe in Avery's talent, the foot injury will give you a chance to buy easier and cheaper than before.
Devin Thomas - Thomas is a player many have given up on. He disappointed greatly as a rookie after being drafted with high expectations out of Michigan State. This will be his second year under the tutelage of Jim Zorn and the Redskin coaches. Thomas is big, athletic receiver who should start opposite Santana Moss. Moss has struggled with a hamstring injury in training camp. That is a situation to monitor. Thomas is a receiver with Top 20 upside. He still needs to mature as a route runner and become a better hands receiver, but he has potential.
Josh Morgan - Morgan is flying under the radar this season. He is the main beneficiary from the Crabtree holdout. Morgan was awesome last preseason before suffering some bad luck with a knee injury and subsequent staph infection. The uncertainty at the quarterback position is a concern. Morgan is a big play receiver. He will be a player that emerges this season. The price to acquire Morgan will only rise over the season. The one issue for buyers of Morgan is the unknown distribution of targets between Morgan and Crabtree in 2010. But, Morgan should enjoy a very strong 2009 season.
The Packer Young WRs: Jordy Nelson and James Jones - The Green Bay Packers have drafted well at the receiver position the last few seasons. The team has Greg Jennings and Donald Driver starting wide with these two youngsters battling to become the slot receiver. Driver is getting up there in age and this may be his last season in a Packer injury. In a year, these two pass catchers should be starting for Green Bay, one out wide and one in the slot. Jones has big play ability. He has speed to burn and can get open with ease. Nelson is a big, strong receiver with elusive speed and unusual football savvy. These are two young receivers with lots of potential that are less expensive than their talent warrants ... just due to situation. Both are good buy lows at this time.
Some Rookie WRs that could start the season slow
Mike Thomas - Thomas is very quick and fast. He is the all time Pac 10 leader in receptions. The Jaguars only have oft-injured Mike Walker and aging Torry Holt as starters at the receiver position. Thomas is the type of rookie receiver that will struggle early on. He has relied on his speed, and now must become a better route runner. In addition, Thomas has struggled with hamstring injuries. This might stunt his 2009 production. But, this is the time to buy Thomas while others see him buried on the depth chart.
Brandon Tate - Tate is a player that shined at North Carolina. He looked like a future stud before blowing out his knee. Even after the injury and a failed drug test, Tate was drafted in the third round by the New England Patriots. He will not see much playing time this season as he recovers from the injury, but will be primed for a break out in 2010. He is definitely a player to stash if his owner is impatient.
Kenny McKinley - McKinley will not see the field much as a rookie. The Broncos are very deep at the position. The team has Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, and Brandon Stokley ahead of the rookie on the depth chart. McKinley is a polished receiver that is a good route runner. He knows how to get open with ease. The only issue for McKinley is his size. He is very thin, and may have problems beating the jam.
Mike Wallace - Wallace is turning heads in Steeler camp. He is very fast and is able to wipe out any cushion easily. Mike Wallace is a name to remember. He is fighting to become the WR3 in Pittsburgh but has the potential to be a starter in the NFL. His speed is a huge asset, both as a receiver and a returner. Keep an eye on Wallace this preseason. He could be a legitimate factor in 2010.
Young TEs that are undervalued due to poor short-term situations
Shawn Nelson - The Buffalo Bills historically do not utilize the tight end position. But, they drafted Nelson as a receiving option at the position. He is athletically gifted and poses mismatches for opposing defenses. It will likely take him a season to get up to speed and be a productive tight end. Nelson will be a viable receiving option for the Bills. He is tall, fast, and has tremendous yards after the catch ability. Nelson is a player to stash for the season with the hopes of cashing in next year. He could end up on the waiver wire this season as the Bills have other options in the passing game.
Jared Cook - Cook was drafted into a seemingly crowded situation in Tennessee. The Titans already had veterans Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler. But, Scaife is only under contract for the 2009 season and Crumpler is used primarily as a blocker. The circumstances set up nicely for a break out 2010 season. Cook will make some plays as a rookie, but will emerge next year. As Scaife garners more targets, this will be the last time to acquire Cook at a reasonable price. He has big potential as we know the Titans love using their tight ends in the passing game.
Martellus Bennett - Yes, Bennett is limited in Dallas. He is playing behind All Pro Jason Witten. But, Bennett is a player. He could start on many teams, even while entering his second season as a pro. The Cowboys are claiming to run a lot of two tight end formations, but it will not be enough to make Bennett worth starting any given week. He only becomes viable with a Witten injury. But, fantasy owners know Bennett's upside. He is a great player to buy low while trapped in a bad situation, and stash for a couple of seasons. Bennett has the talent to be an elite tight end.
Travis Beckum - Beckum was forgotten by many after suffering an injury at Wisconsin. But, Beckum is as talented as any of the rookie tight ends. He has soft hands and can make plays. Beckum was drafted behind Kevin Boss in New York. Beckum is a much stronger asset in the passing game and will emerge over time. It may take most of the season for Beckum to emerge, but he should surpass Boss before the 2010 preseason. He is another tight end that could be dropped in dynasty leagues this year. Be ready to pounce.
High upside backup running back that could explode if given extended opportunity
LeSean McCoy - McCoy is a legitimate prospect. He is being eyed as the successor to Brian Westbrook. With the veteran turning 30 this year, that time could happen soon. McCoy looks very strong so far this preseason and training camp. He is versatile and is very good in several areas that are difficult for rookies like pass protection. McCoy's upside seems to be limitless. A Westbrook injury would propel the rookie into a large role in the Eagle offense. In addition, McCoy's value is high, but will continue to climb. He has legitimate talent.
Jerious Norwood - Norwood has flashed talent and ability in limited action so far in his career. The high number of carries for Michael Turner could allow Norwood to see extended action this season. He possesses blazing speed and the ability to break a long play at any time. Norwood is in the last season of his contract and is playing for a contract. His ability as a receiver is underrated, especially with Turner catching so few passes.
Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw slipped in the NFL Draft with concerns over his character. He has shown much promise as a runner so far in his young career. Bradshaw could be much more than a change of pace back. The departure of Derrick Ward opens up the depth chart for Bradshaw to see more touches. Add in the injury history of Brandon Jacobs, and it is not difficult to envision a big season for Bradshaw. He has played at a high level this preseason, giving fantasy owners confidence in his ability.
Michael Bush - Bush is now fully recovered from the broken leg that led to his free-fall in the NFL Draft. He had a monster game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 17. This huge game against a premier defense leads many to think he will be a big part of the Raider offense of the future. The Oakland backfield is crowded with Bush, Darren McFadden, and Justin Fargas. It may take most of the season for Bush to work his way past Fargas, but it will happen. Bush is a very good receiver for his size and provides a good complement to McFadden. With the injury history of the other two, Bush could have a few big games in 2009.
Jamaal Charles - Charles is such an enigma. He possesses many of the qualities that make great running backs. He has outstanding speed, good vision, and can make a big play at any time. But, Charles struggles with fumbles, pass protection, and consistency. Charles did show promise as a rookie and could surprise if anything were to happen to Larry Johnson. The Chiefs are a team in transition and could look to the youngster in obvious passing situations.
Tashard Choice - Choice looked outstanding when filling in for Marion Barber and Felix Jones last season. Yes, he is still buried on the depth chart behind both, but his talent was unmistakable. He had big games against the toughest defenses in the NFL. The poor situation is what makes him a great player to buy. This is the time to buy, while impatient fantasy owners think they will not get much 2009 fantasy production. Fantasy owners are on the lookout for talented players. Choice is very talented. He may not have much opportunity in the short-term, but it is obvious he could start elsewhere. This may be a situation similar to that of Michael Turner in San Diego who had to wait until after his rookie contract was played out before getting a golden opportunity.
Tim Hightower - Hightower is a player that many were down on as a rookie. He struggled at times. But, I expect much more from him this season. Hightower was transitioning from a small school (Richmond) to the NFL. He needed the extra time and development. Yes, the Cardinals drafted Beanie Wells to assume the starting job, but Hightower will have a role. At minimum, I expect Hightower to be the short yardage back. Plus, Wells battled injuries in college and the likelihood of him missing time is fairly high. Buy Hightower while many have given up on him. He should start a few games, at the minimum, this season.
Kevin Jones - Kevin Jones was a great pickup for the Chicago Bears. He was coming off of a knee injury and most had given up on him. But, now Jones is back to full speed and can be a difference maker. He will be the primary backup to Matt Forte and spell the starter during games. The camp reports have been glowing for the ex-Lion. He is available on many waiver wires, and provides good upside. Jones would be very productive if something were to happen to Forte. As per usual with Jones, he will need to prove he can stay healthy.
Mewelde Moore - Moore was a great signing from the Vikings. He is very adept as a receiver out of the backfield. Moore showed his value during last season's stretch run. Moore is a great player to add on the cheap, especially in PPR (Points Per Reception) leagues. Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall are far from durable. Moore could surprise many with a few strong outings again this season.
Acquiring the two young, cheaper options behind a an aging or injury-prone star
This is an area that is largely forgotten by fantasy owners
Jerome Harrison/James Davis - Jamal Lewis is on the downside of his career. Gone are the elite seasons of years gone by. The Browns are not a good team and will want to know what they have in their younger players. Expect Mangini to use like Leon Washington in New York. Harrison is a very good receiver and offers the Browns a chance for a big play. Davis had a great Junior season at Clemson, before disappointing as a Senior. He is quick for a big back and offers the Browns an option to be the long-term primary back.
Leon Washington/Shonn Greene - Thomas Jones is in the last year of his contract. He is over thirty years old and will not be a Jet in 2010. There are even rumors that Jones could be traded this year. Head Coach Rex Ryan has vowed to get Leon Washington more touches, substantially more touches. He is a big play back. The Jets paid a lot to move up and take Greene in April's NFL Draft. These two look to be the backs of the future for the Jets. They will be much, much more expensive when Jones is no longer playing in New York.
Darren Sproles/Gartrell Johnson - LaDainian Tomlinson is now over 30 and is coming off of a disappointing season. The Chargers slapped the tag on Sproles earlier this year. He offers the team a speed back that is very good as a receiver. Johnson is best known for his record setting game against Fresno State in the bowl game. Together, they are very inexpensive compared to Tomlinson. Many are expecting the veteran to have a bounce-back season. He likely has one or two seasons, tops, in San Diego as the primary ball carrier. This is the time to pair Sproles and Johnson on the cheap.
Forgotten WRs that could emerge to new level
Hakeem Nicks - Nicks will start the season on the bench for the Giants. New York will bring their top rookie along slowly. Nicks was awesome at North Carolina, and solidified his standing with a jaw-dropping performance against West Virginia in the bowl game. He will start for the Giants before the season is out. The team needs Nicks' playmaking ability. This could be the last time to acquire Nicks before he is untouchable. He is THAT good.
Matt Jones - Jones was released by the Jaguars after a drug arrest and a probation violation. What he did was wrong, but Jones has moved on. Teams have avoided Jones so far this offseason, but he is much better than many clubs' starters. He caught 65 passes in twelve games last season and could boost the receiving corps for several franchises. Jones is very inexpensive right now, but he could see his value skyrocket when he signs. Any team that signs Jones will see him as a starting option. He could be a fantasy starter in the right situation ... at next to nothing as an investment.
Chaz Schilens - Schilens is a player that is not known to the casual fan. He plays in the black hole of passing production. But, Schilens is a budding star. He will be the primary receiver for JaMarcus Russell this season. The lanky Schilens is able to get open with ease. In addition, the porous Raider defense will give him plenty of opportunity for success. This is the time to buy Schilens while he is out with a foot injury. He could have a banner season after returning to the lineup.