Quarterback By Committee

  Posted 8/17 by Chase Stuart - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Note: If you play in a start-2 QB league, there's another article on the website specifically for, called 2QBBC (Start 2 QBs).

For the sixth year in a row, I'm advising fantasy players to use the Quarterback-By-Committee strategy in their fantasy leagues. The first six rounds of your draft should be used to assemble a wealth of talent at RB and WR (and occasionally, TE); it's usually not wise to waste an early draft pick on a quarterback. Your goal should be to save those high picks in your draft and still get solid fantasy production, by grabbing two or three QBs facing bad defenses every week of the year. That's what the QBBC system is all about.

In the past, I simply graded the defenses and then combined the schedules to see which QBs formed the best committees. As you can see at the bottom of this article, doing that will leave you with guys like Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Hill, and Marc Bulger. Those guys aren't great QBs, but their schedules combine in a very impressive way. However, I understand that many of you will think that those QBs simply aren't good enough to win your league. To be more specific, those guys might produce the most value relative to their average draft position, but to win your league, you need lots of points. When QB10 performs like QB4, that's more valuable for fantasy leagues than when QB25 performs like QB10. As a result, I'm going to suggest you go with a two-man committee this year of mid-tier guys with great schedules, as opposed to lower-tier guys with excellent schedules.

The first key, of course, is to rank the defenses. I always start by adjusting last season's data on defenses for strength of schedule. I focus on two statistics - fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and adjusted yards per attempt allowed to opposing QBs. This is a complicated process, which involves iterating strength of schedule adjustments many times for both QBs and defenses until reaching true ratings for each QB and defense. I recommend using a computer.

Fantasy points allowed (FPA) to opposing QBs is an obvious statistic to use; adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) needs some explanation. The statistic is derived by taking total passing yards, and adding 20 yards per touchdown and subtracting 45 yards per interception; then those adjusted yards are divided by total attempts. This gives an NFL ranking of the pass defenses, which is important to have. Some teams gave up lots of rushing yards to opposing QBs, while others faced a ton of pass attempts last year. This would overstate their attractiveness to opposing QBs, because rushing FPs allowed to opposing QBs and pass attempts allowed aren't consistent from year to year. Space constraints prevent me from explaining each team's adjustment, but I've (with the help of Footballguys.com defensive experts Jene Bramel and Aaron Rudnicki) factored in each team's offseason to adjust their 2008 defensive numbers. The accompanying table shows each team's defense's 2009 projected rating and rank, along with the 2008 rankings of the defenses in fantasy points allowed and adjusted yards per attempt allowed.

What do those numbers mean? The '6.5' in front of the Steelers means I expect fantasy QBs to score 6.5 fewer FP/G when playing Pittsburgh than when playing a league average defense. On the other hand, starting your QB against the Lions and Cardinals should once again be fantasy gold this season, as both teams should see lots of high scoring games in 2009. Finally, when the QB is on the road, 0.6 FP/G are added to his opponent's total score. So for Carson Palmer, when playing @Cleveland that goes down as a 2.4 FP/G tougher than average game, but when he plays the Browns at home his opponent is considered only 1.8 FP/G harder than average.

The QBBC Duo

In some years, I've advocated grabbing three low end QBs. This year, I think taking two mid-level QBs will work better. I eliminated all pairs that had a QB with an ADP in the Top 10 or a QB without much fantasy potential. The duo that best represents high upside, a relatively low ADP, and a terrific combined schedule is David Garrard and Matt Schaub. Both QBs are undervalued, in my opinion. In my Rearview QB analysis article form earlier this summer, I noted that Schaub ranked fifth in adjusted fantasy points per adjusted game last season, while Garrard ranked 13th. According to MyFantasyLeague.com, Schaub has an ADP of QB11 (79th overall) and Garrard is being drafted as the 16th QB off the board (and 109th player overall.) Both QBs are underrated, but they're really undervalued as a duo.

The Combined Schedule

• Week 1: Houston vs. New York Jets (-1.1)
• Week 2: Jacksonville vs. Arizona (-5.9)
• Week 3: Houston vs. Jacksonville (-3.5)
• Week 4: Houston vs. Oakland (+1.6)
• Week 5: Houston @ Arizona (-5.3)
• Week 6: Jacksonville vs. St. Louis (-2.4)
• Week 7: Houston vs. San Francisco (-1.2)
• Week 8: Houston @ Buffalo (+0.3)
• Week 9: Jacksonville vs. Kansas City (-1.2)
• Week 10: Jacksonville @ New York Jets (-0.5)
• Week 11: Jacksonville vs. Buffalo (-0.3)
• Week 12: Jacksonville @ San Francisco (-0.6)
• Week 13: Jacksonville vs. Houston (-3.1)
• Week 14: Houston vs. Seattle (-3.5)
• Week 15: Houston @ St. Louis (-1.8)
• Week 16: Jacksonville @ New England (-1.4)

Eight of the games you'll start Schaub; eight weeks you'll play Garrard. Ten of the sixteen games are at home, while only two games are against harder than average defenses. Seven games come against Jacksonville or Houston (both have bad pass defenses, so you can play either QB that week), St. Louis, Arizona or Seattle. Another four come against San Francisco, Oakland or Kansas City, defenses that are always capable of imploding in any given week. The other five come against the AFC East, where all of those teams very inconsistent pass defenses. That week 16 game has some bad potential - remember what happened to Kurt Warner when he went to Foxboro in week 16 last year? The other option is Schaub on the road against Miami, which should be a much better weather game.

David Garrard - Draft (in 12 team league): Round 9

Garrard was in dire straights last year - he had a harder than average schedule and a weaker than average supporting cast. That's never a good combination. While his schedule was 1.6 FP/G tougher than average in '08, you'll be playing him against weak opponents in '09. More importantly, he's added WR Torry Holt, LT Tra Thomas, OT Eugene Monroe, OT Eben Britton, WR Mike Thomas and WR Jarrett Dillard since last year. And who knows, maybe even WR Mike Walker will be healthy and reach his potential this year. Guards Vincent Manuwai and Maurice Williams will be back after playing in just the opening game in '08, and center Brad Meester is finally healthy after dealing with a torn biceps for all of last season. Garrard's fantasy stock has soared in the last nine months.

Garrard ranked 4th in AdjFP/AdjG in '07; after a ton of injuries decimated the Jacksonville offense, he regressed to 13th in '08. But with a new line, a bunch of new targets, and the always capable MJD in the backfield, there's a lot to like about Garrard this season. With Fred Taylor no longer around, the offense will rely more on Garrard's arm and legs. He should be a perfect guy for any platoon.

Matt Schaub - Draft (in 12 team league): Round 7

Schaub was lights out last season, thanks to having the great Andre Johnson on his team. While he struggled with injuries both seasons in Houston so far, he's led all QBs (minimum 600 passes) in yards per attempt since becoming a Texan. That's right - no quarterback has averaged more yards per pass over the last two seasons than Matt Schaub, and the Texans should throw more passes than most teams again this year. Translation? Lots and lots of passing yards and fantasy points; while he missed time due to injuries last season, Schaub was on pace for nearly 4700 passing yards. So while Garrard has lots of reasons for optimism thanks to his team's great offseason, Schaub is already there. Yards per attempt is a metric that correlates better with future success than nearly any other stat, so seeing Schaub top the list is a good sign that he'll be great whenever he plays in 2009.

And what happens if he gets hurt? The Texans added Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky in the offseason, and both of them could be good in a pinch. Be sure to keep your eyes on the backup battle throughout the rest of preseason, right now Orlovsky appears to be the guy you want to roster, if you want Schaub's backup.

Other Pairs

Obviously, you might not be able to land both guys in your draft. The table below shows how many FP/G easier than average the combined schedules are. So Seattle and San Francisco have a schedule that should yield 46 fantasy points more than if they had a perfectly neutral schedule.

What happens if you want to grab Schaub and Garrard but miss out? You might want to wait for Trent Edwards and Matt Hasselbeck. Both players have some upside - Edwards has Evans and Owens and the no-huddle offense, while Hasselbeck has been there before and now has Houshmandzadeh. Those guys might be a good move at the 9/10 turn if you are picking towards the end of the round in odd rounds.

Going with a Trio

If you play in a league with large rosters and/or you like the idea of three QBs, the table below shows the top 50 trios based solely on strength of schedule:

Overall Schedule Strength

Even if you don't believe in committees, or have no preset draft plan, it pays to know how tough of a schedule each team has. Peyton Manning could be in store for a huge year, even by his standards. He projects to have the easiest schedule in the NFL, with the four NFC West teams not too far behind him. Six AFC teams face the hardest schedule, with three from the West and three from the North. Denver's going to have a tough enough time replacing Jay Cutler, and Kyle Orton isn't getting any help with the league's toughest projected fantasy schedule.

Play in a Start 2-QB League?

With a growing number of leagues requiring fantasy teams to start 2 QBs, how does strength of schedule come into play? Check out my other article, on QBBC for Start-2-QB leagues.