Winning the NFFC - Telling Yourself a Story

Posted 9/7 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

Footballguys.com expert Sigmund Bloom says that whenever your draft a player, you need to be able to tell yourself a story of how things turned out in such a way that your draft pick helped you win your league. What his saying really means is you should focus on upside - and to win the NFFC, you really need to focus on maximizing your upside. In a league with roughly 300 teams, you're only going to win it all if you take some chances and hit on some picks. Playing it safe is simply not an option at the NFFC; variance is your friend.

Things started off well for me - and that was before I even picked. The guy with the 1st pick took Maurice Jones-Drew, followed by Peterson and Matt Forte. That's great for me, as I play the MJD and Forte owners on their byes.

By the time my pick #10 came around, six RBs and three WRs had been selected. The surprise, though, was that Calvin Johnson was not only taken ahead of Randy Moss, but ahead of all other receivers. I came into the draft planning to take Chris "4.24" Johnson with the 10th pick, but was going to take any of my big 3 WRs (Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson or Moss) if one was there. After running about a dozen draft simulations, I realized that the value in round 3 would be at RB, and not WR, so I was better off taking that stud WR in the first if he was there. And at 1.10, Moss was there.

Predraft, I planned on taking Steve Smith in the second round, but he was snatched up at 2.01. I then decided to step back and tell myself a story. My first pick was Randy Moss - how do I win the NFFC with Moss? He has to have another huge, 2007-like season. And if he does that, Tom Brady will likely have another huge, 2007-like season. Taking Brady at 2.05 is risky - if either Moss or Brady get injured, both of my first two picks could bust. But hey, who cares about downside risk when you're trying to beat 300 other owners for the trophy? By taking Moss and Brady, I've given myself a chance to win it all by hoping that the Patriots party like its 2007.

With Brady and Moss on the roster, I needed a running back at 3.05. Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown and Darren McFadden were all available at the start of the third round. By my pick, only McFadden was there. In the majority of my mock drafts, I had selected McFadden at 3.05, and I felt comfortable taking him there in the real one. He plays for a run-first team, he's got elite talent, he's going to catch a bunch of passes, and I know when I need to draft Michael Bush. I love Ochocinco and Jason Witten, but without a running back on the roster, I knew I had to take McFadden.

At the 4/5 turn, I was hoping for Antonio Gates and a WR, or alternatively, a RB and WR. Gates went right before me at 4.09, so I decided to wait on TE in this draft. Only coming out of the first four rounds with one RB and one WR would have been a bad move, most likely, but I thought Gates was great value that late in the draft. My top RB left in the 4th was Marshawn Lynch; my top WR was Santonio Holmes. Lynch is an interesting guy because of his suspension, but he should be top 15 on a PPG basis. Both Lynch and Holmes could have made it to 5.05, but I decided RB was a bigger priority for me - I could have been fine with Hines Ward or Jerricho Cotchery, but there was a big drop-off on my board after Lynch. As luck would have it, Holmes fell to me in the fifth round, giving me Brady/McFadden/Lynch/Moss/Holmes through five rounds.

At 6.10, I was surprised to see Greg Olsen still around. In my mocks, my Cooley/Daniels/Winslow tier had all been drafted before 8.10, so I had planned on pulling the trigger on Winslow at 7.05. I decided to just grab Olsen a few picks earlier, as he's got more upside only a marginally higher cost. With Jay Cutler in town, how can you not love Olsen? I see Olsen being the Jason Witten to Jay Cutler's Tony Romo, as Olsen is the best and most dependable target on the team. I'm a huge Jay Cutler fan, and expect him to exceed expectations in Chicago in 2009. Additionally, my top WR on my board was Hines Ward, who shares the same bye week as my top two receivers. I gave some thought to selecting Donald Brown, but with Lynch already on my team, I didn't want to have two RBs who might not do much early in the year. I pulled the trigger on Olsen.

At 7.05, I needed a receiver. Torry Holt was the top WR on my board, I'm very high on David Garrard as the Jaguars have an easy passing schedule. Holt was a simple pick to make.

In the eighth round, I was locked in on going RB or WR. My top WR available was Steve Breaston, and I wasn't too excited about him. At RB I had been targeting Rashard Mendenhall at 9.05 for awhile, and was considering taking him in the eighth round. Then I used the Footballguys.com Draft Dominator to see which remaining RB projected the best in the first three weeks of the season, when Marshawn Lynch would serve his suspension. The answer? Fred Taylor. With games against the Bills, Jets and Falcons, Taylor could be a good start those weeks. He's a risky pick because of his age and the general unpredictable nature of the Patriots running game. But he's a great complement to Moss and Brady - if they have a down game, odds are that Taylor had a good one. If Brady and Moss have huge weeks, I can probably skate by without much from my RB2. Taylor's ADP told me I could wait on him, but since the guy I really wanted could be had later, I took Taylor with my pick.

At 9.05, I selected Mendenhall, much to the chagrin of the owners with the 9.06 and 9.07 spots. I think Parker's a legitimate injury risk, while Mendenhall is a first-round talent who might become a bell cow back before long. Considering Pittsburgh's commitment to the running game, I think Mendenhall will have solid value as a bye week plug-in regardless of Parker's status on game day. But to win the NFFC, you need to take the high upside picks. And I can easily tell a story of Parker getting hurt and Mendenhall getting 20 carries, 100 yards and 1 TD a game the rest of the year. Those are the type of boom picks you need to hit on, in the middle rounds of your draft, to win the NFFC.

With the draft just about halfway done, how was my story unfolding? I'm banking on the Patriots blowing up the league again, and on some combination of Fred Taylor, Tom Brady and Randy Moss to carry me the first three weeks. Once Lynch is healthy, I should have two solid RBs, a star QB, a star WR, a TE with great upside, and two dependable receivers. I'm pretty happy to so far.

At the 10/11 turn, I needed a RB and a WR. My top WR was Muhsin Muhammad, a guy who ranked 29th last year on a team that was very run heavy and scored most of their touchdowns on the ground. I expect Carolina to have less success rushing this year, and therefore will pass more frequently. But while I liked Muhammad as a dependable pick as the 58th receiver off the board, I figured I could pass on him for one more round. The guy I really needed was RB Michael Bush, a do-it-all player who is a necessary handcuff to Darren McFadden. Oakland wants to have a power-running game, and could easily give McFadden and Bush over 400 carries in 2009. Bush showed he can carry the load if McFadden gets hurt - he had a 27-carry, 177-yard, 2-TD game in week 17 last year. I love the McFadden/Bush combo, and in the event that either misses games, the other should be a stud. It's possible that some weeks, I might even want to start both guys, especially if I'm a favorite to win my matchup that week.

After grabbing Bush, I crossed my fingers and hoped Muhammad would make it back to me. He did. Through 11 rounds, I had:

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Darren McFadden/Michael Bush; Marshawn Lynch; Fred Taylor; Rashard Mendenhall
WR: Randy Moss, Santonio Holmes, Torry Holt, Muhsin Muhammad
TE: Greg Olsen

With eight rounds to go, what should I do? I planned on taking a DT and a PK very late; so far, so good. What about the other six picks? A backup QB is not a significant priority, so I'll only take one, focusing on who has an easy game during Brady's bye. I like Olsen, but could probably use a high upside tight end for depth. That strategy meant I had 4 RB/WR picks to go; given my current ratio of 5 RB/4 WR, and my predraft plan of having more WRs than RBs, I knew I needed three more WRs and just one more RB pick (a swing for the fences type).

When Bernard Scott went before my 12.10 pick, I decided to wait on RB for awhile; my target at this point was Mike Goodson, the Reggie Bush-like Panther who could be a valuable commodity if either Williams or Stewart miss time. Since I knew I was going to be able to wait on a kicker, a backup QB, and my last RB pick, the obvious move at 12/13 was to take two receivers.

At 12.10, Mark Clayton was the top receiver left on my board. He's a guy who has a bunch of talent but has been saddled with poor QB play most of his career (the one year he had a legitimate NFL QB, Steve McNair, he was a top 30 fantasy receiver in just his second season in the league). On a team without much quality or quantity at WR, but with improving QB play, I thought Clayton would be a solid depth pick for my roster. At 13.05, I decided to swing for the fences with Troy Williamson, the former top-ten draft pick who had a fantastic preseason with the Jaguars. By having both Holt and Williamson, I am covered at WR3, knowing I can play the top Jacksonville WR most weeks. If Williamson lives up to the hype, he's a steal in the thirteenth round; if he disappoints again, that's good news for Torry Holt, and I can drop him for some receiver who starts off hot in weeks one and two. It's always good to draft a couple of guys you don't love, that way you enable yourself to stay active on the waiver wire. When you love everyone on your roster, you usually end up missing on this year's waiver wire stud.

By 14.10, I still wasn't ready to take Goodson, my QB, or my kicker. As Vernon Davis and Anthony Fasano went the two picks before me, and only one of the guys picking after me had selected a backup TE, I smelled a run coming. I snagged Todd Heap, another guy who has had a great preseason and a good complement to my Mark Clayton pick. If Heap goes down with an injury, Mark Clayton's stock gets a small uptick. He doesn't share a bye with Olsen, so Heap was the obvious choice.

By 15.05, the Chicago Bears defense was still on the board. The Bears were my 5th ranked defense, and eight owners had already grabbed their primary D/ST. Since I didn't love any of the receivers available, I decided to grab a D earlier than I expected. The Bears should be strong value for me as a 15th round pick, and maybe they'll hold me over during Brady and Moss' bye week; in week 8, Chicago hosts the Browns.

With just four picks left, creativity was out the window. I needed a backup QB, a kicker, a sleeper RB and a sleeper WR. In any order. In the 16th, I finally pulled the trigger on Mike Goodson. I decided that Marc Bulger would be a solid backup option, as he plays the Lions on Brady's bye. I'll cross my fingers that he's still healthy by then. But I knew I could wait on Bulger, and the WRs I had been focusing on were all guys I could take in the last round. I decided I might as well get the kicker of my choosing, as only five were off the board. I wanted a kicker with a late bye week, and definitely one without a week 5 bye (if I'm only carrying one kicker and one defense, they can't have the same bye). The best option was Ryan Longwell, who should be adequate there; he kicks in a dome, he plays on a decent offense with a very good defense, and he has a week 9 bye. I selected Longwell.

At 18.10, I pulled the trigger on Bulger. With my last pick, I swung for the fences and grabbed Matt Jones, currently a free agent but who was on an 87-catch pace last year in his twelve games for Jacksonville. If Jones signs with the Bears or the Cowboys, he could easily be my WR3. And, like the Williamson pick, he's a guy that's easy to cut if things don't work out.

Overall, I'm very pleased with how my draft went. Here's the final roster:

QB: Tom Brady, Marc Bulger
RB: Darren McFadden, Marshawn Lynch, Fred Taylor, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Bush, Mike Goodson
WR: Randy Moss, Santonio Holmes, Torry Holt, Muhsin Muhammad, Mark Clayton, Troy Williamson, Matt Jones
TE: Greg Olsen, Todd Heap
PK: Ryan Longwell
TD: Chicago Bears