Defensive Team By Committee

  Posted 8/21 by Chase Stuart - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

For seven straight years, Footballguys.com has promoted the defensive team by committee (DTBC) strategy to help fantasy players dominate their leagues. Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, so predicting which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will do well is difficult. Even still, of course, the teams available at the ends of your drafts usually provide fewer rewards. So how do you get great production while saving your most important draft picks?

We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft whose combined schedule features predominantly weak offenses. Since you start your defense based on matchups, and your D/ST will usually oppose a weak offense, your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points. At least, that's the plan.

In 2006, the recommended DTBC pairing ranked 3rd in fantasy points per game. Two years ago the DTBC was off the charts good, outscoring even the top individual D/ST on a FP/G basis. Last year, the DTBC was not very good, as both the Bills and Saints struggled. We let you down in 2008, but that doesn't mean the theory is wrong or that this year is going to be disappointing. Hopefully, you'll follow our advice again and you can ride your DTBC to your fantasy playoffs.

When picking a D/ST committee, you should look for four factors:

• A very easy combined schedule
• Two teams with late average draft positions (ADPs)
• Big play ability - think pass rushers and defensive backs with good hands
• Reason to expect improvement in 2009

The first step in creating the DTBC system is to grade the offenses. I've used the Footballguys.com projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - (2 x Turnovers). Each team's projection is shown in the first column in the table, along with their projected rank, and how they ranked under the scoring system in 2008. While most leagues award significant points for sacks, I don't factor into the team offensive projections sacks allowed data, as those numbers are particularly difficult to predict. But don't worry: we'll absolutely keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC.

Not surprisingly, the Jay Cutler trade bumped Chicago ahead of Denver. Tampa Bay lost Jeff Garcia and Jon Gruden, and has an unstable QB situation; they dropped in the rankings. On the other side, Jacksonville added a ton of talent at offensive line and wide receiver - and if you read the Quarterback By Committee article, you'd know I'm very high on the Jaguars passing game this season. The bottom four teams - Oakland, St. Louis, Cleveland and Detroit - were also the bottom four in 2008; we don't expect their offenses to improve significantly in 2009.

After grading the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned the corresponding projection for each opponent that every team played. For example, when the Jets host the Patriots in week 2, New York's D/ST receives 268 points. However, for road games, an additional five points are added, so when the Ravens travel to Foxboro in week four, Baltimore's D/ST gets 273 points. Obviously, you want your committee to have the lowest possible number of combined points. Bye weeks are valued at 400 points to avoid combining D/STs that share the same bye week. After doing this for every game in every week, we can now rank each team's schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most fantasy leagues don't play in Week 17.

2009 Defensive Team By Committee

Green Bay Packers (ADP: D/ST 12)

• DE B.J. Raji, NT Ryan Pickett, DE Cullen Jenkins
• OLB Aaron Kampman, ILB A.J. Hawk, ILB Nick Barnett, OLB Clay Matthews
• CB Charles Woodson, FS Nick Collins, SS Atari Bigby, CB Al Harris

Like the other duo in this year's DTBC, Green Bay now plays a 3-4 defensive front. The key to any 3-4 defense is the nose tackle, as Kris Jenkins proved for the Jets last year. Green Bay has a lot of beef up front, with Raji, Pickett and Jenkins. While it looked like the Packers would play Raji at nose after the draft, it now looks like Green Bay will play Pickett inside and Raji outside in the base set. Raji is a big body with incredible lower body strength. He'll play inside a bunch this year, especially when the Packers are in nickel and dime sets. Ryan Pickett is a former first round pick with over 100 starts to his name, but he's not a household name. The former DT will be playing a lot of zero-technique, lining up directly over the center. While we can't be sure that this will be a seamless transition, reports are that Pickett's adjusted well to the switch. Cullen Jenkins will man the other end spot, and his above average size and speed combination makes him a good fit there.

Aaron Kampman had 37 sacks the last three years as a defensive end, but over 90% of those came in nickel and dime situations. In the base 3-4 defense, Kampman will play as an outside linebacker/pass rushing specialist, but in nickel and dime sets he'll continue to play at end. Either way, expect another good year out of Kampman. The other pass rusher is rookie Clay Matthews, the first round pick from USC. Matthews has experience in the 3-4 and should be a good fit immediately for the Packers. A.J. Hawk, the former weak side linebacker, shifts inside in the new 3-4 defense. Hawk's a natural fit as a 3-4 ILB and his physical style of play should suit him well there; he battled nagging injuries last year, but a healthy Hawk could become a star in 2009. Rounding out a strong unit is Nick Barnett, who was a solid MLB for half a decade for the Pack but was never a big play guy. With more beef up front, Barnett may finally have fantasy status that matches his NFL ability. Barnett tore his ACL last year, but is still on pace to be ready for week one. Barnett will be playing the WILB spot while Hawk will be the SILB and the MLB in nickel sets.

The secondary features two cornerbacks who debuted twelve years ago; in their careers, Woodson and Harris have made 7 Pro Bowls and intercepted 55 passes. While both players have their best days behind them, they're still solid cornerbacks for 2009. Nick Collins continues to mature as a player - in '08 he intercepted 7 passes and led the league in INT return yards (295) and touchdowns (3). Strong safety Atari Bigby suffered through injuries in 2008 but in '07 he intercepted five passes and forced three fumbles.

The most important addition for GB may be off the field. Green Bay hired Dom Capers to coach the defense, and he brought in former pass rushing great Kevin Greene to coach the outside linebackers. There's no doubt that Capers will have the Packers playing aggressively in 2009. Whether or not he produces a good NFL defense is an open question; for fantasy purposes, though, Green Bay should produce a bunch of sacks, turnovers and some scores this year. As a bonus, Will Blackmon is one of the better return men in the league, and he'll handle both punt and kick return duties. He'll team with Jordy Nelson on kick returns, but Blackmon's most dangerous returning punts - he's scored three times on just 44 career punt returns.

Arizona Cardinals (ADP: #18)

• DE Darnell Dockett, NT Bryan Robinson, DE Calais Campbell
• OLB Bertrand Berry, ILB Karlos Dansby, ILB Gerald Hayes, OLB Chike Okeafor
• CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, FS Antrel Rolle, SS Adrian Wilson, CB Bryant McFadden

Arizona plays a hybrid 4-3/3-4 defense, but as the team matures under HC Ken Whisenhunt and transitions at defensive coordinator (from Clancy Pendergast to Bill Davis), expect more 3-4 sets in the desert. The Cards rotate their defenders in the front seven, and play almost every player at multiple positions depending on the defensive alignment. With significant depth and versatility, the Cardinals should be able to have one of the better defenses in the league in 2009. Bryan Robinson played end and tackle in 4-3 schemes for most of his twelve-year career before moving to nose tackle in 2008 due to injuries. He played well there, and will once again man that position this season. Gabe Watson and Alan Branch have higher upside, though, and will also see some time at nose. Darnell Dockett should play inside in the 4-3 but will be on the outside in the Cardinals base defense; he's a wide body that is athletic enough to be a playmaker as a 3-4 end. Calais Campbell stands tall at 6'7, making him a good fit for the 3-4 defense, but he was inconsistent as a rookie in 2008. He displayed terrific talent at the University of Miami and should only improve as he matures.

The Cardinals have several options at the outside linebacker position. Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor are veteran pass rushers who have combined for over 100 career sacks. Veteran Clark Haggans and second round pick Cody Brown (Connecticut) will also help attack the passer. In certain sets, Berry, Okeafor or Brown can all put their hand down and rush as ends, while Haggans has been a 3-4 'backer for his entire nine-year career. Between the four of them, Arizona should have no problem bringing the heat. On the inside, Karlos Dansby is good for about 10 big plays a year - sacks, forced fumbles, recoveries or INTs. Gerald Hayes isn't a big play guy, but is a sure tackler and solid linebacker in the middle.

As talented as the linebackers are, the strength of the Arizona defense is the secondary. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie ("DRC") and Adrian Wilson are going to be perennial Pro Bowl candidates for the next few years. DRC is already one of the most athletic defensive players in the NFL and is a terrific playmaker who had four INTs in the second half of the season and then two more in the playoffs. Adrian Wilson can do it all - get to the passer (8 sacks in 2005, 2 in the NFC Championship Game), create turnovers and make big plays (his resume includes both a 99-yard fumble return TD and 99-yard INT return TD). Wilson will continue to move to linebacker in dime sets to get as many athletic defenders on the field as possible. Antrel Rolle is another terrific athlete who plays "centerfield" for the Cardinals. He struggled initially in '08 as he transitioned from corner to safety, but he was living up to high expectations by the end of the year. Arizona signed yet another ex-Steeler, Bryant McFadden, to play the other cornerback spot. McFadden is just hitting his prime and was one of the more prized free agents this offseason. He's a solid cover corner who played very well down the stretch, and will provide a nice upgrade to the Arizona secondary.

If your league combines defense and special teams, Arizona continues to look like a strong sleeper. Whether it's Steve Breaston, Jason Wright, Early Doucet or even DRC on kick and punt returns, Arizona should feature an electric return man every time the opponent kicks the ball.

The Combined Schedule

• Week 1 - Arizona vs. San Francisco (195)
• Week 2 - Green Bay vs. Cincinnati (195)
• Week 3 - Green Bay @ St. Louis (183)
• Week 4 - Green Bay @ Minnesota (MNF) (230)
• Week 5 - Arizona vs. Houston (214)
• Week 6 - Green Bay vs. Detroit (165)
• Week 7 - Green Bay @ Cleveland (173)
• Week 8 - Green Bay vs. Minnesota (225)
• Week 9 - Green Bay @ Tampa Bay (201)
• Week 10 - Arizona vs. Seattle (197)
• Week 11 - Arizona @ St. Louis (183)
• Week 12 - Green Bay @ Detroit (Thanksgiving) (170)
• Week 13 - Green Bay vs. Baltimore (MNF) (193)
• Week 14 - Arizona @ San Francisco (MNF) (200)
• Week 15 - Arizona @ Detroit (170)
• Week 16 - Arizona vs. St. Louis (178)

This committee runs the weather gamut, with an opening day matchup in the desert and a night game in the Frozen Tundra in December. More importantly, you get an amazing seven games against bottom three offenses. The toughest two games are when the Packers play the Vikings, who boast the QB who led the league in INTs and the RB who led the league in fumbles in 2008. With the exception of Carson Palmer, none of the quarterbacks that our defensive combo will have to face are very scary. While this defensive committee option looks nice, you might want to consider...

Grabbing Just One?

In some leagues, it's just too costly to spend two rosters spots on defenses. In larger leagues, it may not be feasible to grab two defenses that you like. If you're only drafting one defense, it still pays to know the ability level of its opponents. However, this year, it really pays to know. The Pittsburgh Steelers - the team with the best defense in the NFL - happen to have the 2nd easiest schedule in the league. Pittsburgh plays seven (of 15) games against bottom eight offenses and then two more against the Bengals. With the second easiest schedule, you might want to consider reaching early on the Steelers defense. Another defensive stalwart, Minnesota, has the third easiest schedule. The full list is presented below: Note that both the bye week (which was considered a 400 point week earlier in the article) and Week 17 have been removed.

Finally, here are all 496 combinations, presented in the table below, and in an Excel file available for your download here If you've still got any questions after all that, please shoot me an e-mail at stuart@footballguys.com.