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Spotlight - TE Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys

Posted on 8/16, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

The tight end position has come a long way. I remember when I started playing fantasy football and guys like Jay Novacek, Keith Jackson and Brent Jones were atop the fantasy rankings. In 1992, Jay Novacek had 68 receptions for 630 yards and 6 TDs to finish as the top fantasy TE with 99 fantasy points. His 99 fantasy points would've ranked him 8th in 2006, 7th in 2007 and 6th in 2008. My how times have changed.

This year, another Cowboys TE is likely to finish atop the fantasy rankings, only his full season projections are significantly higher. Jason Witten is the consensus top fantasy option this year, and I'm projecting him with:

• 85 receptions
• 995 yards
• 11.7 yards per reception
• 7 TDs
• 142 fantasy points

Witten is somewhat of an ironic pick to sit atop the fantasy rankings, because he's a throwback to different times. Today's NFL is littered with oversized receivers who call themselves tight ends. They may be decent blockers, but many are liabilities in both run- and pass-blocking schemes. Witten, on the other hand, is as punishing a blocker as he is a talented receiver.

Witten's abilities as a blocker may seem inconsequential to fantasy analysis, but they have an underappreciated benefit -- unpredictability. Cowboys OC Jason Garrett has the flexibility to call a lot of players out of their base formations and Tony Romo can confidently audible from run to pass and vice versa without concern; they both know Witten is an asset and will be in the lineup regardless of down and distance.

Could Witten be in line for the most targets by a TE in recent memory?

In 2008, Witten was targeted 121 times, the 10th most since 2002 (as far back as our database on targets goes unfortunately). But that paled in comparison to his 2007 tally of 141 targets. Here is a quick look at the 20 most targeted TEs since 2002:

When you consider that Witten racked up 262 targets in the last two years despite Terrell Owens demanding the ball in every huddle, it's not a big leap to think Witten could see 160+ looks this year. Owens is, of course, now a Buffalo Bill and that leaves Witten as Toy Romo's only proven option. WR Roy Williams is the WR1 by default, but he's not good enough to become Romo's top target. If Witten isn't getting the most looks, the Cowboys offense is in trouble. While we may never know the full story, numerous reports from Cowboys beat writers insisted that Witte would've been targeted more last year had Owens not made incessant demands for the ball.

As if being the most targeted TE wasn't good enough, pair that with the fact Witten has the best hands, too. A quarterback's best friend is someone that wll catch anything thrown his way -- and J.W. fits that to a tee. Consider that since 2003, only 35 players have been targeted at least 500 times.

The last ingredient to Witten's fantasy excellence is his QB -- Tony Romo. While the Cowboys QB may be in the news for who he's dating, it shouldn't obscure that he's an excellent passer. Romo is accurate (63.6% completion), aggressive (8.1 yards per attempt), and productive (6.2% TD rate). As long as Romo is under center, Witten is going to be a top tight end. But savvy fantasy owners will note that Romo got hurt last year, and things went off the rails a bit. Fear not, as the Cowboys added seasoned veteran Jon Kitna to back him up.

Positives

• A true 2-way tight end, he's on the field in all downs and distances
• With Tony Romo under center, Witten has been one of the top 2 or 3 fantasy TEs in all scoring formats
• The departure of Terrell Owens all but assures Witten will top 150 targets this year; and his astoundingly good catch % puts 90-100 receptions within reach

Negatives

• Martellus Bennett may be the Cowboys 2nd most talented pass catcher, but he's not as good a blocker. It's possible the Cowboys will keep Witten in to block more often than fantasy owners would like to see
• Witten doesn't generate a ton of yards after the catch
• He lacks the TD productivity (25 TDs in 95 games) of his elite counterparts Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez

Final Thoughts

A lot of fantasy owners don't believe in drafting tight ends early. But that's old school thinking. Back when only one or two TEs had a shot at 100+ fantasy points, that was a reasonable decision. But in a day when you need to break 100+ points just to finish in the Top 7 or 8 at the position, there's considerable value in getting THE BEST tight end. With Tony Gonzalez changing teams, only Antonio Gates is a realistic threat to finish at TE1 over Witten. But either way, Witten should catch a ton of passes, rack up a ton of yards, and be a consistent producer. In PPR leagues, I would consider Witten as early as the 3rd round, and in traditional leagues, if he's there in the 5th round, he's making it onto my roster.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Winning IS Everything:
Jason Witten has great size and provides a high quality option for Tony Romo to either dump off to or even hit in stride down the middle of the field. Witten has shown a knack for getting open and for his tough play. He should be relied upon heavily again this year and should be the #1 TE come year end.

bigern1000:
I think that his knack for getting open has been one of the biggest keys for his emergence and success. Too many times in the last couple of years I've seen a great pass rush, then all of a sudden Romo let it go to a Witten who had nobody within 5+ yds of him.

rzrback77:
Jason Witten is as solid as TEs come finishing as TE1 and TE2 in the past two seasons. However, with the league wide involvement of the TE as a down field weapon, the separation between the usual top tier candidates and the next level or two is less than it has been in the past. The Cowboys are now without TO and are counting on Roy Williams and their youth to pick up some major slack. I worry a little about Romo who proclaimed that he would be a more effective leader this season. That is just not something that you decide to do and I would not think that should be an announcement either.

I see a very good year for Witten regardless. I was surprised to see the decrease that he had in targets from 07 to 08. I think that this year's productivty should be very close to last year. I also see less TDs than it seems Witten would get.

billrob:
He's head and shoulders above everybody else at the TE position.

1000 yards and 6 TDs has got to be his floor.

Jason Witten Projections