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Spotlight - TE Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Winslow has been snake bit through much of his professional career and as a result has never reached the consistency or potential that you expect out of a top-six overall pick. He only played in two games as a rookie back in 2004, missed the entire 2005 campaign and then missed six games last season. In fact, during his five-year career he has played in only 44 of a possible 80 games thus far. During the 2006 and 2007 seasons however, Winslow was able to highlight just why he had been so coveted coming out of the University of Miami. He caught 171 passes in those two years and became a dependable target across the middle for the Browns.

This season, Winslow has moved onto Tampa Bay to jump start his career with a different franchise. On a team without a bonafide star at receiver, there is a real chance for Winslow to become an elite tight end for his new club if he can stay healthy and earn the trust of coaches and his quarterbacks. There is no denying his talent when he is able to start.

A synopsis of Winslow's five-year career:

• He played in only two games during his first two NFL seasons (catching just 5 passes)
• He has averaged 5.1 receptions per game over the past three seasons
• Has 2409 receiving yards in the past 42 games (57.4 yards per game)
• Has scored 11 touchdowns over three seasons
• Has played in only 44 of a possible 80 games
• Has had only on season averaging more than 10 yards per reception
• His career long reception is only 49 yards
• He had the 9th most receptions during the 2006 campaign (89 catches)
• Was the 6th and 4th best fantasy tight end in back to back seasons (2006 and 2007)

What is Winslow capable of with the Buccaneers?

Winslow had some memorable moments while in Cleveland including a couple of good seasons. However, there were as many disappointments as achievements and he is a player that needed a change of scenery. There is no denying Winslow's natural athletic ability. He has great size for a receiving tight end (6'4 and 254 pounds), soft hands, has excellent quickness and creates matchup problems for the defense no matter whom they use to cover him. In his two healthy NFL seasons, Winslow managed to catch 171 passes. He is certainly capable of returning to that level if he can avoid the injury woes that have cost him 36 games so far during his NFL career.

The Buccaneers are an intriguing team with many question marks on offense heading into the 2009 campaign. The most important question that needs an answer is this:

Who will the starting quarterback be in Tampa Bay?

Right now, it appears that the race will come down to veteran QB Byron Leftwich and hotshot rookie QB Josh Freeman. However, a dark horse candidate may also emerge during training camp and preseason. The Buccaneers are hopeful that somebody will step in under center and become a star for this offense but at this moment, the giant question mark at this important position makes it tough to evaluate the potential statistics for the receivers on the team. Leftwich at times throughout his career has looked outstanding but he has had just as many disappointing moments since being a first-round draft choice by the Jaguars. He has great size and a great arm has questionable mobility. Freeman is an interesting player but likely needs some time to adapt to the professional game before earning a starting job. Winslow's possible production will be tied into the overall play at the quarterback spot in 2009. If someone can step in and lead this offense, the potential is there for Winslow to do quite well.

How does Winslow slot into the offense?

The Buccaneers do not have an elite receiving unit. Kudos must go out to veteran WR Antonio Bryant who rescued his disappointing career from the scrap heap with the Buccaneers but he is only a decent #1 receiver in the NFL. He is the only proven commodity at wide receiver the Buccaneers have though heading into 2009. It appears that Michael Clayton, rookie phenom several years ago who has been MIA ever since will be given every opportunity to start in 2009 but after him the cupboard is bare for the club.

The Buccaneers will be hoping to feature a strong rushing attack this season and with newcomer Derrick Ward joining Earnest Graham in the backfield, it appears the club will have a run-first mentality. Both of the running backs could finish with 200+ carries in 2009 and a successful season for the Buccaneers will likely mean fewer than 450 passing attempts on the season.

With the lack of receiving talent in Tampa Bay, the offense is going to want to feature a large dose of Winslow in 2009. He has the ability to elevate his play and become an unstoppable force at the tight end position, which is exactly what the Buccaneers are hoping for out of the 26-year old tight end. Bryant will draw just enough attention to free up some space across the middle of the field and if Winslow stays healthy, he may just lead the team in targets this year. Having a talented tight end can really open up the offense and expect the Buccaneers to set up Winslow as the first option in many passing plays.

Positives

• He has an elite blend of talent, size and speed
• He caught 171 passes combined in his two healthy seasons
• He may prove to be the first option on many passing plays in 2009

Negatives

• He has missed 36 of 80 games as a professional
• He has had only one season with greater than 10 yards per reception
• The Buccaneers are unsettled at quarterback and have questionable receiver talent

Final Thoughts

The Buccaneers are unsettled at quarterback and weak at receiver. The best option to help both of those areas is to lean heavily on newly acquired TE Kellen Winslow. There is no doubt that Winslow is one of the most talented tight ends in the NFL today. When healthy through his five-year career, he has proven to be very difficult to stop in the underneath and intermediate passing routes and his 5.1 receptions per game showcases that he can catch the ball. The Buccaneers have holes at receiver but can mask the weakness by using Winslow who has receiver talent in a tight end body. Do not be shocked if Winslow leads the team in receptions and touchdowns this season. He has a real opportunity for a top-five fantasy season at the tight end position.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

massraider:
He's had 3-5-3 TDs the last three years. So basically, I think he has had one knee surgery for every 2008 TD.

I think he's damaged goods, and the Browns knew it, and went used car salesman on the Bucs. That move got made quickly and quietly, and anytime a talent like Winslow gets moved that fast, eyebrows should be raised.

Even if we aren't projecting injury, which a lot of smart people tell you is a fool's errand, you have a guy going to a new offense, with a shaky (at best) QB situation. That's a lot of unknowns. Players roles change when they change teams, it is usually incorrect to just project the same numbers they got with their last team.

Having said that, I think his numbers from last year are pretty close. I think he winds up around TE9-12.

Lab:
Winslow and Bryant are really the top two receivers on that team, and it's not a rushing powerhouse, so a fair amount of offense needs to go through them. QB may be a carousel, which makes him a risky pick (on top of Winslow's other risky aspects). Assuming Winslow stays healthy, he should get as many receptions as he received in 14 games in 2007. However, those receptions likely will be for shorter distances because it likely won't be a gutsy rocket-armed QB throwing him the ball (like Anderson was in 2007). I am assuming TDs will be higher than 2007 though because I recall that in 2007 Winslow had a string of several bad-luck games where he got dragged down inside the 5-yard line, so his TDs were deflated. (That's my unverified recollection on 2007 TDs, but I have not confirmed it, so maybe someone will correct me.)

Winslow's stats from his two healthy seasons:
2006 16 games, 89 rec, 875 yds, 3 TDs
2007 14 games, 82 rec, 1106 yds, 5 TDs (pro bowl)

nittanylion:
Winslow has talent, you can't question that. He needed a change of scenery...can't question that, either...

...but I do question plenty when it comes to his FF Prospects for 2009.

IMO, Tampa Bay was quite likely one of the worst places he could have found himself, except maybe for the weather, which is a big improvement over Cleveland, Ohio. Maybe the Browns trading him there was them going for getting the last laugh, after all the headaches he caused - trading him to one of the few Teams that might actually be worse than they'll be in '09. I think the Bucs would LIKE him to be a focal point of their Offense...if they had one to begin with. I'm very down on the Bucs prospects for 2009, and I predict they'll be among the bottom Teams in the NFL in Total Offense, and lead the League in 3-and-outs/ Lowest 3rd Down Conversion Percentage. When a Team is behind, they have to throw to keep up, but they have to generate completions to generate statistics. The Bucs have worse than nothing at QB for 2009. I don't buy into Leftwich at all, nor McCown, and the Josh's just plain aren't ready. Graham is an overachiever coming off an injury, Ward, who is a Player I like, is going to have absolutely no room to work, I think, and get swallowed up by 8-man fronts.

No offense to the Buc faithful, but I can't see it being anything but ugly this Season. Teams are going to blanket Antonio Bryant and take him out of the Offense, and dish out a vicious beating to both Ward and Winslow, who are both likely to miss time with injuries, a legitimate concern for both, based on their history. The Defense is still solid, but aging, and is going to spend a whole lot of time being run upon as Opponents grind out clock to put even more pressure on the Bucs weak sister QB's.

Winslow has history with maturity issues. Sending him to the Bucs at this stage of their franchise - rebuilding, youngest HC in the League, and somewhat of a leadership vacuum with the departure of several aging, but respected veterans, is like setting a match to a powder keg, when you consider just how bad this Team could potentially be in '09. Good Luck with that.

Even under optimal circumstances, it's tough drafting him over Gates, Witten and Gonzalez. Under his current circumstances, I'm hard pressed to find any reason to draft him over DlClark, Daniels, Cooley, Olsen, ZMiller, Carlson, Keller, Shiancoe, Fasano or Celek. With more than 12 more enticing options, it puts him on my undraftable list.

Kellen Winslow Projections