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Spotlight - RB Brian Westbrook, Free agent

Posted on 8/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

In fantasy football, we love versatile running backs. In a game of statistical achievement, it's always best when your player can make a contribution in every facet of the game. There are runners who are good in short yardage but not deft and patient enough to rack up lots of yardage as 20-carry workhorses. There are backs geared toward 3rd down passing situations but have no role as ball carriers. There are, of course, backs who rack up yardage but are liabilities on obvious passing downs and/or can't convert short yardage opportunities. We're greedy in fantasy football, we want the whole enchilada.

For a few years, Brian Westbrook wasn't a complete back. The versatile Villanova graduate was a part-time runner who made most of his big plays as a receiver. Thankfully for Westbrook, he was on the perfect team for his skill set. The Philadelphia Eagles love to throw the ball, and Head Coach Andy Reid has long held that a 4-yard completion is as good as a 4-yard rush.

In his first three seasons as a full-time member of the offense (as a rookie he was primarily a special teams contributor), Westbrook averaged 150 carries and 4 TDs on the ground. Hardly the kind of numbers fantasy owners want to see in their lineups.

Over those three seasons, Westbrook finished RB20, RB10 and RB18, respectively.

But then a funny thing happened on the way to the 2006 season - Andy Reid decided Westbrook could handle a larger workload. Perhaps it was the fact Westbrook averaged 4.5 yards per rush in part-time company, and seemed to make big plays whenever they gave him the chance. Or maybe Reid took notice of how division rival New York flourished after it gave Tiki Barber a similar opportunity (Barber was also a 3rd down, receiving back for a number of years). Either way, from 2006-2008, Westbrook became, as we say in fantasy parlance, the TOTAL PACKAGE.

2006-2008 Season Averages

• 250 rushes
• 1,162 rushing yards
• 4.6 yards per rush
• 7.7 rushing TDs

Add those rushing numbers to already stellar receiving totals, and you have a RB that can help you dominate your fantasy league. Westbrook finished the last three seasons ranked RB6, RB2 and RB10, respectively (and we even better in PPR leagues).

When we say Westbrook is a good receiver, it doesn't do him justice. Lots of RBs get passes thrown to them; even rookie Matt Forte caught 63 balls a year ago. But very few, if any, RBs are as talented catching passes.

Westbrook has more receptions, receiving yards and TDs than any other RB in the last six years. And fantasy owners should take particular note of the TD line. Brian Westbrook has TWICE AS MANY RECEIVING TDS as the #2 back over the last six years (who happens to be LaDainian Tomlinson).

The reason Westbrook is such a productive receiver is because he's not limited to catching outlet passes from the tailback position. The Eagles line him up all over the field. He's just as likely to line up in the slot or as the outside receiver as he is to be behind the QB. He's a precise route runner, knows the Eagles passing formations as well as any WR, and has hands that compare to most team's WR1s.

All this is a fine testament to the multi-faceted skills of Westbrook, but it doesn't tell the whole story. His injury history, and the potential compounding effect of his accumulated maladies, is a major risk, particularly if you're going to use a 1st round selection on him this year.

Westbrook has never played a full 16-game season. He's missed 13 regular season games, including two last year. That's cause for concern in and of itself, but Westbrook had unexpected ankle surgery in June. The procedure was to remove bone spurs, and raised a lot of red flags considering how late in the preseason he underwent the procedure. Usually a preventative 'clean up' is done early in the offseason, so this had an air of significance to it that most clean outs don't.

At the same time the injuries are piling up, his production has started to ebb at the margin. He's still a productive player (RB10 last year), but there's no question his overall productivity has waned.

• His yards per rush fell from 5.1 to 4.8 to 4.0 over the last three seasons
• His reception totals fell from 77 and 90 in 2006-2007 to just 54 last year
• His receiving yards fell from 699 and 771 in 2006-2007 to just 402 last year
• His yards per reception average dropped from 9.1 to 8.6 to 7.4 over the last three seasons

So what to do about Brian Westbrook this season?
For a number of years, Brian Westbrook offered RB1 value for RB2 prices. But those days are long gone. This year, Westbrook is being drafted 17th overall (RB11) and that's in spite of his not participating in team practices yet. If he returns to practice before the preseason ends, you can be sure Westbrook will cost you a late 1st round or early 2nd round draft choice.

Positives

• Brian Westbrook is the best receiving RB in the NFL, and he plays on a team perfectly suited to maximize those skills
• The Eagles offensive line projects to be dominant this year
• Westbrook is the rare RB that can just as adeptly barrel up the middle as bounce a ball to the outside, he's got phenomenal balance, lateral quickness, and vision

Negatives

• Not the biggest runner, Westbrook his piled up the (seemingly minor) injuries, missing at least one game every season. He had an ankle scoped in June, and has missed most of the preseason
• In past years, the Eagles have lacked a complementary RB with comparable skills, this year they have on in rookie LeSean McCoy
• Westbrook's productivity on a per touch basis has been on the decline for the last several seasons; a natural regression from the peak probably, but could also signal a major drop off looming

Final Thoughts

Is an ADP of 17th overall (RB11) too much to pay? That depends on your league's scoring system.

In traditional scoring formats, I think Westbrook is more likely to finish in the Top 12-15 than he will the Top 10, and that assumes he's back for 14+ games. If he were to miss more time, who knows how low he could go? As an Eagles season ticket holder who sees every snap he takes, I honestly believe Westbrook has lost a step. The Eagles seem to have finally found a quality complementary option in LeSean McCoy, and there is a lot of depth at the RB position around the league.

Now, in PPR (points per reception) leagues, it's a different story altogether. Even hair-cutting Westbrook's production in my projections, I have a hard time keeping him out of my Top 8 in PPR formats. So if you could get him as a 2nd rounder in that format, it's probably still worth the risk. Just be sure to target LeSean McCoy as a handcuff later (I'm not usually a fan of handcuffs in normal sized leagues, but this is a smart exception to my rule).

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

dansav:
Brian Westbrook has 1-2 more years of fantasy production left. The Eagles are a contender year in and year out, and McNabb just grabbed more dough to keep him happy at least for 2009. If you take the 4 year average for Westbrook you will see numbers that are very realistic for this years production. I am going to project a slight decrease from the 4-year average.

fridayfrenzy:
Westbrook seems to have received this "injury risk" label due to being on the injury report quite a bit, but he rarely seems to miss games. Even though Westbrook may not practice during the week, or would be on the injury report as a gametime decision, he would always play on gameday.

Last year, Westbrook missed 2 games in what was considered a "down-year" for Westbrook, when compared to the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Even with this "down-year" in my PPR league, he finished as the 9th best RB and was 3rd in points per game. That seems pretty damn good.

Now to use Yudkin's example of playing a replacement RB for the 2 missed games by Westbrook. If I started the 30th RB (Sammy Morris) in points per game to replace Westbrook for those two games, the combined RB points would have been good for the 4th overall RB, only behind DeWill, Forte and Turner.

Maybe I am taking an optimistic view of Westbrook's off-season surgery, but it seems better to have caught and remedied the problem in the offseason so that it hopefully is not a nagging problem during the season. Missing training camp and preseason isn't a good thing for any player, but Westbrook is enough of a vet that it won't be a major problem.

Westbrook is a major value play right now and I got him at 2.12 in a No Mercy league to pair along with Adrian Peterson, and I am just giddy to have a backfield like that.

I do not understand why everyone is so down on him and projecting some major downturn in production. McCoy is a rookie and may be groomed for the RB role later in the future, but at this time he is certainly not good enough to take away a signicant amount of carries from one of the best RBs in the NFL.

Tanner9919:
Westbrook is already hurt this season, reports are that he'll miss all of training camp...He enters the 2009 season as a 30-yr old oft-injured RB, playing in a division where all teams have gotten better defensively - Giants added D-linemen, LB's, get Osi back, Washington added run-stuffing Albert Haynesworth...Westbrook's YPC avg has steadily declined in each of the past 3 seasons, down from 5.1 in 2006, to 4.0 last season. again, combining that with the already hurt 30 year old legs, it doesn't bode well going forward.

In a PPR league he has been a machine, but now even his yards per reception stat has taken a hit, declining steadily in each of the past 3 seasons, from 9.1 per rec in 2006, to 7.4 last season. Also dropping was his recs/gm, from 5.1 in 2006 to 3.9 last season.

Only once has he caught fewer balls/yr then last year ( 54), 2003 ( 37 recs), and what's most alarming is that he played in 15 games last season. Finished the 2008 season in terribly boring fashion, averaging 3.6 per carry the final 3 weeks of reg season...the man is on a steady decline and it's time to get off the wagon, now...perhaps one of the biggest sell-high players of the entire 2009 season.

Brian Westbrook Projections