All Spotlights • Chris Wells Player Page • ARI Projections • RB Projections • RB Rankings • ARI Team Report

Spotlight - RB Chris Wells, Arizona Cardinals

Posted on 8/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Beanie Beanie Beanie

Thank goodness I didn't write this spotlight in early May and am instead penning it in early August. To say my enthusiasm for the rookie tailback has waned is an understatement. After the NFL Draft in April, I though Beanie Wells was the odds on favorite to be the most productive fantasy rookie at any position. The stars were aligned for a dominant Year One, or so it seemed...

Chris "Beanie" Wells was a productive runner at Ohio State, with great size (6'1", 237 pounds) and an impressive skill set. The Arizona Cardinals drafted him with the 2nd to last pick in the 1st round (1.31). Coming off a surprise Super Bowl berth, the Cardinals desperately needed an injection of talent in the running game.

A Running Game In Need
The Cardinals were 2nd in the league with 630 passing attempts, but were dead last (32nd) with 340 rushing attempts. That's a shocking metric when you consider who coaches the team. HC Ken Whisenhunt is a long-time Steelers assistant coach and he understands the value of a power-running attack. But Whisenhunt and his key offensie assistants -- Todd Haley and Russ Grimm -- recognized that the talent to run the ball wasn't there, but the passing game was dynamic. But make no mistake; Coach Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm (now the OC with Haley's departure to Kansas City) desperately want a more balanced offensive attack.

Little Competition for Touches, Right?
Any fantasy player needs two things to succeed: Ability + Opportunity. Wells has the ability, and unlike a number of other talented rookie runners, appeared to have plenty of opportunity. The Cardinals parted ways with former great Edgerrin James, which left 2nd year Tim Hightower as the lone 'competition.' You'll excuse me if I didn't think Hightower was a real impediment for Wells. Hightower was the default starter at times in 2008, but did next to nothing with his opportunities. He ran the ball 143 times for 399 yards. For those without a calculator handy, that's a stunningly unimpressive 2.8 yards per rush. And watching him on film, it's not as though that YPR is misleading. Hightower showed almost no juke, he went down on the first hit, and almost never let his blockers set up. It was not the stuff of legend.

So all Wells needed to do was show up to camp on time, practice hard, and we were looking at a 250-300 carry rookie season. RIGHT?!?!?

As I said, it's a good thing I'm writing this in August and not May. Credit to my fellow staffers Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey, who passionately cover the college scouting scene like few other people that walk the Earth. This is what each of them had to say about Beanie Wells in their pre-draft player capsules:

Cecil Lammey - Chris Wells may have the highest ceiling of any back in this draft, but questions abound about his desire and work ethic. I've referred to him as a poor man's Adrian Peterson, and there were times at OSU when he looked just like that. He has outstanding vision, the power to run between the tackles, and can hurdle defenders in the open field. He is a patient, downhill runner that can spot cutback lanes before they open and he has the elite athleticism to change direction without losing much momentum. During his career at OSU Wells has battled the injury bug, and some question if he knows how to play hurt. While Moreno and McCoy had poor outings at their respective pro days, Beanie Wells had an outstanding performance on the fast track at Ohio State. He kept most of his numbers from the combine, but chose to run the 40 yard dash and clocked in at 4.44 and 4.38.

Sigmund Bloom - Wells has a ridiculous size/speed combination, but questions about durability loom over his draft stock. Teams will want to use him like a battering ram, but can he hold up under that kind of punishment? Wells also lacks great blocking and receiving ability - how high will a team draft a likely two back? Sometimes he looks like Adrian Peterson, but it feels like his career will follow a path more like the one Laurence Maroney has taken.

Notice sandwiched between the obvious physical platitudes were comments about Wells' work ethic, attitude and propensity for injury?

As we near the end of the preseason, Wells has shown a lot more of what made some skeptical about him than the physical talents that had many, myself included, excited. He's been limited in practice, and finding a positive comment from beat writers or other people following Cardinals camp has been harder than finding a needle in the proverbial haystack.

Tim Hightower, meanwhile, has done everything right. As hard as it might be to believe, he's supposedly running with more power, showing good cutting ability, and seems to have fully digested the playbook after struggling with it last year. Combine that with Wells' struggles, and then remember that Hightower probably already was in line to be the short yardage specialist (he scored 10 TDs last year), and it's now looking like Wells won't help fantasy owners early, if at all this year.

Positives

• Wells has off the charts physical ability, almost 240 pounds with breakaway speed
• He joins a team desperate for an upgrade at tailback, with a HC and OC who know the value of a power running game
• With Kurt Warner throwing to Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston, Wells won't have to worry much about 8 men in the box

Negatives

• The Cardinals went to the Super Bowl throwing 600+ times, there's no reason to think they'll go back to a more balanced attack unless the Rbs on the roster prove they're worthy of the touches
• Wells has been limited throughout the preseason, and appears to have ceded the starting job to incumbent Tim Hightower
• Hightower, for his many flaws, was an effective goal line back in 2008, and almost certainly will retain that role in 2009

Final Thoughts

Every year a number of rookie RBs break into the Top 20. It's a position that lends itself to quick productivity because RBs rely more on instincts than mastery of the playbook. Wells seemed to be in an ideal situation. He was joining a team that was terrible at the run, with coaches who are dying to change that. Edgerrin James is gone, and Tim Hightower was pedestrian AT BEST last year. But a lackluster offseason and training camp has re-opened all the questions/concerns his critics had coming out of Ohio State. I still think Wells is too talented (and Hightower too limited) to stay off the field for the whole year, but he's now more of a 'draft and stash' option. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
ARI as a team has had a ypc of 3.5, 3.6, 3.2, 3.2, and 3.5 the past 5 years. Whisenhunt has said each year that he was there that they would run more and pass less. He and Grimm are entering their third season and pretty much have had the same personnel to work with at OL. All along, teams have played the Cardinals to pass and they still couldn't run. I'm not sure Wells on his own changes that equation very much . .

css2373:
Wanted to check the numbers for myself on this guy. From watching him play, I got the impression that he took himself out of games way too much. Maybe I just remember him doing this in the Fiesta Bowl against Texas and that has clouded my vision. The rushing defensive ranking that I found uses total rush yards against as the determining factor, so take that for what you will considering this is the NCAA.

TEAM RANK RESULT

Minnesota 68th 14 carries 106 yards 0 TD
Wisconsin 44th 22 carries 168 yards 1 TD
Purdue 93rd 22 carries 94 yards 0 TD
Michigan St 67th 31 carries 140 yards 2 TD
Penn St 8th 22 carries 55 yards 0 TD
Northwestern 34th 28 carries 140 yards 2 TD
Illinois 77th 24 carries 143 yards 1 TD
Michigan 50th 15 carries 134 yards 1 TD
Texas 3rd 16 carries 106 yards 0 TD

He missed 3 games due to a foot injury. He did take himself out of games. The reason why he did that will determine his success in the NFL.

Coach Pantusso:
The OL returns unchanged from last season, no? The entire team averaged 3.5 yards per carry. A telling stat as to their capacity to run is looking at first down outside their opponents 10 yard line...they were 4th worst in the league. Wells will need to be more ellusive than I think he is to make a huge impact on the ground this year.

I fully expect Hightower to begin the season as the "primary" ball carrier, relenting to Wells as the season moves forward...Hightower simply is not as good as Well, IMO. However, Hightower showed enough in the RZ to likely hold onto the bulk of the goal line carries, and it remains to be seen if they would like to trust their season in the pass-blocking of Wells on 3rd down.

Sure, Whisenhunt wants to throw less, but they threw the ball 65% of the time last season. Even if he gets them down 5-6%, you are looking at Wells getting 42% of about 385 carries.

Chris Wells Projections