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Spotlight - QB Kurt Warner, Free agent

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Kurt Warner is 38 years old. I’ve seen a lot people use that as a reason to discount Warner’s fantasy prospects this year. While I can understand the inherent fear of older players, I think discounting him strictly because of his age is completely arbitrary and unfounded. Why? Because he was 37 years old last year, and he threw for 4,582 yards and 30 TDs.

To say that Warner isn’t likely to perform well this year because so few 38-year old QBs have been fantasy stars is a straw man argument, since you could’ve argued the same thing about him last year. Statistically, it’s true that few 38-year old QBs have been fantasy stars. But it’s also important to remember that very few QBs are still their team’s projected starters at that point. And very few are productive in the prior year. Warner is obviously still at the top of his game, and it’s hardly unprecedented for elite passers to have solid years into their late 30s.

Did you know that Warren Moon had THREE Top-10 fantasy seasons after he turned 38?

• 1994 - 4,264 yards, 18 TDs, 271 FPTs (QB9)
• 1995 - 4,228 yards, 33 TDs, 357 FPTs (QB3)
• 1997 - 3,678 yards, 25 TDs, 287 FPTs (QB7)

Incidentally, Moon finished QB3 as a 37-year old.

I’m not advocating blindly drafting Warner expecting a repeat of last season, in fact, I think the odds are against it. But I don’t think his age in and of itself should keep you away. Before we get into some of the LEGITIMATE risks to Warner’s elite status this year, let’s establish the many reasons for optimism.

His Skills Remain Elite
Warner has struggled with injuries and opportunity at times since leaving the Rams, but his underlying skill set has remained elite. Warner completed 67% of his passes last year, 2nd best in the league. And his 7.7 yards per pass attempt ranked 6th. His 5% TD rate ranked 5th and was right in line with his career mark. His 96.9 passer rating ranked 3rd and was slightly above his career mark (which ranks 4th ALL TIME). In other words, Warner’s performance last year was essentially par for the course. Let’s not forget he’s a 2-Time NFL MVP.

His Offensive Line Kept Him Protected
Warner isn’t mobile, and the Cardinals line has a reputation for mediocrity. But it’s important to note that he was only sacked 26 times last year despite 598 attempts. His 4.2% sack rate was substantially better than the rate he used to take in St. Louis, and was on part with other elite passing teams. While the Cardinals line may not be the most talent rich, OC Russ Grimm and HC Ken Whisenhunt keep them well coached and the cohesion entering this year is reason for optimism.

His Receiving Corp Speaks For Itself
We don’t need to spend too much time on the obvious; Warner has an embarrassment of riches at receiver. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both have All Pro talent, and Steve Breaston emerged with a 1,000-yard season last year as a WR3 and part-time starter in his own right. Given a QB like Warner three legitimate downfield threats, and he’s going to have a field day.

The Run/Pass Ratio Isn’t Going To Change As Much As We Thought
The Cardinals ranked 2nd in pass attempts and dead last (32nd) in rushing attempts a season ago. It’s only logical to think that will normalize a bit in 2009. And to that end, the team drafted Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells to bolster the ground game. Unfortunately, Beanie has been hampered throughout the preseason with an ankle injury and it’s looking less and less likely he’ll be a difference maker at least in the early weeks of the season. And incumbent Tim Hightower is a hard worker, but is a limited talent who averaged an astoundingly bad 2.8 yards per rush last year. As a result, the risk the Cardinals will dramatically cut back on their passing attempts this year seems misguided. A 10% reduction (e.g., 560-570 drop backs) is in order, but fears of a 20%-25% correction are overdone.

As it stands, it’s hard to make a credible argument against Warner’s fantasy effectiveness so long as he’s healthy. And therein lays the one fly in the ointment. Warner had surgery in March to repair a partially torn labrum in his hip. The prognosis looks good for a full recovery, but several reports of late say that Warner is walking with a noticeable limp in practice. Is that reason enough to cross Warner off your draft lists? Of course not, but this is where his age does become a factor. A number of years ago I had the good fortune of hearing Eric Dickerson speak on a host of issues. The most interesting takeaway was his views on aging and football. He said that his skills never deteriorated, but that the natural process of aging slows your ability to heal and recover from the incessant pounding. There’s a cumulative effect to injuries and it’s much harder to bounce back as you get older; purely a biological phenomenon. To that end, I can’t completely discount the risk that Warner is one blindside hit to his hip away from a lengthy stint on the injury list.

But let’s not panic. The truth is Warner’s recovery is on track and no medical red flags outside the limp have presented themselves. And let’s remember that he played through the pain of the torn labrum for the entire 2008 season, and yet led his team to a Super Bowl.

But what about his Average Draft Position?
Last year Warner, by virtue of battling Matt Leinart, was available late in drafts. He was the kind of dream fantasy pick who literally helps win you a championship. Regardless of how you feel about Warner this year, you can be sure he WON’T represent that kind of value. He’s being drafted 38th overall (QB6), meaning you need to select him in the 4th round of most leagues. That’s awfully high for a QB not named Tom Brady or Drew Brees, in my opinion. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Warner match his draft position this year, but it’s going to be very hard for him to exceed it.

Positives

• Warner is one of the most accurate, statistically productive passers in NFL history
• The Cardinals receiving corps is among the best in the league
• The lack of clear defensive improvement and the struggles of Beanie Wells to get on the practice field argue against a material change in the run/pass ratio

Negatives

• Warner is coming off hip surgery, and is at an age where recovery and potential for reinjury increase
• His ADP assume elite productivity this year, so he's not longer a bargain
• The Cardinals ground attack, barring a breakout year from rookie Beanie Wells, isn't good enough to keep defenses from keying on the passing attack

Final Thoughts

Kurt Warner is coming off a season for the ages. But unlike a year ago when the Cardinals were reluctant to hand him the job, he's armed with a new 2-year contract, is fresh off a Super Bowl, and has been the unquestioned QB1 throughout the offseason. With Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston at receiver, and a proven offensive coaching staff (yes, Todd Haley is gone but Whisenhunt and Grimm are proven, too), Warner should be a legitimate every week fantasy starter in most leagues. His hip and ability to recover from hits are something to watch, but not enough to completely discount drafting him. The trick with Warner this year is his ADP of a mid 4th rounder. If I'm not drafting Brady or Bree in the first two rounds, I'm likely waiting for my QB. So while Warner won't be on many of my rosters this year, I can't say he's overvalued. You just have to plan for taking him early if you want him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Longrifle:
Let me first say that I am a big Warner fan. But you cannot ignore the facts. Since 1998 he has only played 3 complete seasons (most due to injury). So we cannot assume he will be able to manage another complete season this year. I would think he could miss at least a couple of games due to an injury.

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
Part of the confusion over Warner is that his dominance in ARI gets overshadowed by the fact that in his first few seasons he was not a full time starter. Including the post season last year, Warner has now played 45 games with the Cardinals in which he had 20 passing attempts. Given the voracity for which ARI has elected to throw the ball, 20 attempts to me would be at a minimum that of a starting workload.

In those games, Warner has averaged a staggering 286 passing yards, 1.9 TD, and 1 INT. So on a seasonal basis that would be projected out to 4576, 30 TD, and 16 INT. Given that the sample size is essentially almost three years worth of data, I see no arguments that that is a blown out of the baseline projection.

I would suggest that people consider that and then factor out injury risk, migration to more rushing attempts, etc. But my point was that what Warner did last year was on par with what he'd done all along with the Cardinals.

Dr. Octopus:
Yes Warner is getting old, but I do think people are overblowing his injury potential. Another thread this offseason convinced me that the "Warner is a sure thing not to last the season" line of thinking is offbase. While in many recent seasons he has failed to play a full year, many of those seasons were due to his team's decision to move on from Warner and go with the younger player (Bulger, Manning and Leinart).

Warner showed toughness during his time in Arizona and the game calling and his quick release helped him avoid taking a beating behind an average (at best) offenisve line. I don't think he's any more likely to miss time than any other QB. He is still one of the league's better QBs and is supported by arguably (and I'm not really sure that it is arguable) the best WR combo in the league.

Just Win Baby:
I think Warner's injury history is a bit overblown.

1999 - no injuries, great season (MVP)
2000 - broke his hand and missed 6 games, still had a great season
2001 - no injuries, great season (MVP)
2002 - broke finger and missed several games, played poorly when he played
2003 - got a concussion and fumbled 6 times in the opener and was benched
2004 - no injuries, played pretty well, but Giants chose to switch to Eli, their new franchise QB, after 9 games
2005 - injured groin and missed a few games, later partly tore MCL, but played pretty well when he played
2006 - no injuries, played pretty well but was benched for Leinart until Leinart was hurt
2007 - no injuries, played very well in relief of Leinart and after eventually becoming the starter
2008 - no injuries, great season

In St. Louis, he was dominant before and after the first injury (hand). But for whatever reason, he played poorly in 2002, both before and after his second injury (finger), and then followed that up by getting the concussion and fumbling 6 times in the first game of 2003 and gave way to Bulger. Bulger took that opportunity and ran with it, going 12-3 as the starter, though his QB rating was a fairly pedestrian 81.4. At that point, Warner had had 3 different injuries in the previous 4 seasons, so injuries were a definite concern, he was 33, and the team had a younger QB coming off a 12 win season that I'm sure Martz thought he could make into Kurt Warner. So Warner was released.

Warner was in NY for just one season, and he played well... much better than Eli. But Eli was the heralded franchise savior QB with a monster contract, and the team decided to switch to Eli after losing 3 of 4 games, even though Warner only played poorly in one of them.

Then Warner went to Arizona and had his last two injuries in his first season there. He played pretty well when he played, but I think it convinced Arizona they couldn't count on him at age 34 and after he missed several games in his first season there, so they drafted Leinart. Then they felt compelled to play Leinart in his first and second seasons, based on his status as an incoming franchise QB with a reasonably large contract, but overall Warner completely outplayed him and is now rightfully the starter.

So we have 10 seasons, and Warner was injured a total of 5 times in 4 of them. A broken hand, broken finger, concussion, torn groin, and partly torn MCL. Is there any reason to think any of those injuries will reoccur? Or that because of those injuries, he is more susceptible to some other injury? I could see it with the concussion, except for the fact that I'm not aware he has had another one since 2003. So I just don't see the propensity for injury that others are talking about, especially given that his last injury was in 2005.

IMO people confuse the number of games he played, thinking he has missed a lot more time due to injury than he really has. IMO he was benched in 2003 for poor performance. So that means he missed 0 games due to injury in 7 of his 10 seasons (1999, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008), and he missed a total of 20 games due to injury over that span... 2 games per year on average... and 20 of a possible 130 games (adding the 20 to his 110 games played over that span), which scales to about 2.5 games for every 16 games. I'd be pretty happy to have Warner's average performance with the Cardinals for 13.5 games this year...

rzrback77:
Kurt Warner is an interesting projection for 2009. He has the accuracy, touch, and weapons to finish as the top QB and he has a current ADP of QB6 and 41 overall. He had three 1,000 yard WRs a year ago and they all return. They drafted a rookie RB in the first round and there are some that think that the Cards will run more than they did a year ago, but with a chance at the top QB at a price for the QB6 that appears to be a gamble worth taking.

Warner has been extremely productive in the past two seasons. In 07, he didn't start until the third game and still finished as QB10. Last year, he finished as QB4. He has averaged over 7.5 ypa over those two years. He has averaged 1.9 TDs per game. He has had twelve games with over 300 yards passing and elevn games with more than two TDs. Consistent and high scoring, with the main threat being his age. But, even there, his arm is younger than he is. Compare that he has attempted 3,559 passes in his NFL career with Brett Favre's 9,282 attempts. For his age, he does well escaping sacks and was sacked 26 times a year ago. He also ranked 3rd in QB rating last year.

Kurt Warner Projections