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Spotlight - WR Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Tefertiller's Thoughts

The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking to repeat the Super Bowl victory. The key contributors on offense remain the same. Once again, the team will look to establish the running game and throw the ball as needed. Hines Ward will play a large role as a blocker and a receiver in the Steelers offense. He is a strong blocker in the running game and sound option for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger through the air.

Ward has been the "go to" receiver for Roethlisberger since the starting passer was just a rookie. The tough and rugged Ward just continues to plug along. Fantasy owners seem to give him less and less respect as he has aged. Footballguys.com has Ward with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of WR27. At this ADP, Hines Ward offers value for fantasy owners. But, in many drafts, he is being taken much lower. As of June 16, MyFantasyLeague.com has Ward with an ADP of WR35 and pick 87 overall. He slips in many drafts as owners go for the receivers with more upside potential. For instance, he is being drafted several spots lower than teammate Santonio Holmes. Ward has finished higher than his current Footballguys.com ADP five of the past seven seasons, including a WR15 finish in 2008. It is interesting that the veteran gets knocked for his durability even though he has missed just six regular season games in his eleven-year career. Yes, he has been nicked up, but has played through most of the injuries.

Even though Santonio Holmes currently has the higher ADP, Hines Ward should continue to be the WR1 in Pittsburgh. Holmes stepped up his game in the postseason last year while Ward was nursing an injured shoulder. This is what most people remember about the Pittsburgh passing game in 2008, Holmes' spectacular games leading the Steelers offense to the Super Bowl victory. What is usually forgotten is that Ward outpaced Holmes in excess of an average of two fantasy points per game. Ward is recovering nicely from the injury and is expected to be ready in time for training camp. Fantasy owners should expect the Steelers to slowly work him back into the action. The team cannot afford to have a setback.

Positives

• Hines Ward is a solid veteran possession receiver. While he may struggle to finish in the fantasy Top 10 again, he offers little downside risk. Fantasy owners drafting the 33 year old can safely insert Ward into the starting lineup each week without concern for his role in the offense or his weekly targets
• The year-to-year consistency is amazing for the veteran. Only once since 2002 has Ward had fewer than 975 receiving yards or less than six touchdowns. His strong relationship with Ben Roethlisberger should give Ward enough opportunity to have a legitimate chance at hitting those numbers once again. A season with approximately 975 yards and five or six scores would easily exceed his ADP
• The Pittsburgh Steelers only have Santonio Holmes and Ward at the wide receiver position. The team let Nate Washington walk this offseason and are hopeful that Limas Sweed, Shaun McDonald, or Mike Wallace can fill the void. But, this should only help ensure that Ward will get his share of pass targets

Negatives

• The venerable pass catcher is coming off of a shoulder injury. While he is expected back, it is far from guaranteed that he returns to top form early on. As players age, it takes longer to recover from injury and sometimes the injury lingers. His hard-hitting style of play could also open Ward up for more nagging injuries
• The strong play of Santonio Holmes in the playoffs could propel him into the featured option for the Steelers passing game. If nothing else, Holmes showed that he could handle a larger role in the offense. Expect Roethlisberger to look for the play-making Holmes' more than in the past. The Steelers do not have many options for a big play when one is needed
• The upside of Ward is limited. While he did have a surprisingly strong 2008 season, finishing as WR15, his potential is probably topped around WR20. The last time Ward enjoyed a very good season, finishing as WR10 in 2005, he ranked as WR22 the following year. Other receivers with similar ADP have more potential to have a breakout fantasy season

Final Thoughts

Ben Roethlisberger depends on his veteran receiver to make the clutch reception. Ward has led the team in targets in each of the past eight years and this trend should continue for the 2009 season. Only once since 2002 has Ward had fewer than 113 pass targets, and that was in 2004 when he caught almost 80 percent of his targets. He offers fantasy owners a solid fantasy option for a fantasy WR3. It is nice being able to draft a WR3 for your fantasy team that is coming off of such a strong season. Rarely does that happen. His Footballguys.com ADP is the last pick of the sixth round (assuming a 12-team league). The receivers with similar ADP are Bernard Berrian, Santana Moss, and Anthony Gonzalez. None offer Ward's soundness as a fantasy WR3 option. Hines Ward is a solid, yet unspectacular fantasy option.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Banger:
The Rodney Dangerfield of WR's. I guess he didn't get the memo two years ago that this was Santonio Holmes' offense from here on out. As often happens with veteran WRs they are put out to pasture by the FF community several years before their NFL coaches do. He's still got great hands, he's still captain clutch and he'll still be leaned on in the red zone. Injuries always have to be a factor and you'll probably be able to get him a good bit cheaper than the final stats he'll put up. Last year he finished as WR15 with 81-1043-7 and he may drop off a bit from there but not that much. He's boring and doesn't have a lot of upside but he's a nice insurance policy you can get relatively cheap and shoot for a big upside guy later in your draft.

mlball77:
More of the same, here. Ward should have another solid season. I don't see Holmes emerging as the clear #1 WR in Pitt, so I believe Ward postes the following: Recs: 75, Yds: 900, TDs: 7

Jason Wood, Senior Writer, Footballguys:
Ward is 33 years old and, like many veteran receivers, is approaching a point in his career where even his most ardent supporters have to wonder when thinsg will slow down. While that's certainly an understandable risk, the fact remains that Hines enjoyed a bounce back year in 2008.

*** 81 receptions (his most since 2003)
*** 1,042 yards (his most since 2003)
*** 12.9 yards per reception (his best since 2006, and 0.7 yards better than his career mark)
*** 7 TDs (matching his 2007 showing)
*** 147 fantasy points (most since 2005)
*** WR15 ranking (most since 2005)

But what's remarkable about Ward is his consistency. Underlying his year end tallies, his target numbers show the importance of his steady presence in the lineup:

*** 2004 -- 105 targets in 16 games
*** 2005 -- 115 targets in 15 games
*** 2006 -- 126 targets in 14 games
*** 2007 -- 113 targets in 13 games
*** 2008 -- 126 targets in 16 games

With Santonio Holmes' heroic showing in the Super Bowl, a lot of people expect Holmes to make the natural transition into the Steelers WR1 much in the same way Torry Holt eventually overtook Isaac Bruce in St. Louis. Although that's certainly not out of the realm of possibility, it's also important to remember that we KNOW Ward is an all-around, proven weapon. Holmes needs to do it for a longer stretch than a few playoff games before I would completely dismiss Ward's role as the WR1.

At his current ADP (WR27), Ward represents insanely good value. He was WR15 last year and hasn't finished outside of the top 25 on a PPG basis since 2004.

Hines Ward Projections