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Spotlight - WR Kevin Walter, Houston Texans

Posted on 8/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

As a writer for a fantasy football information site, it’s probably not in my best interest to say the following, but here goes…it takes a lot of luck to win your fantasy league. Shocked you say? Well listen, it would be completely disingenuous of me or anyone else in this business to say otherwise. It only takes that one time when your RB1 lays a goose egg in Week 16 against the wild card playoff entrant who starts a backup QB like Billy Volek and beats the pants off you to learn that luck is instrumental in winning championships.

To that end, I think the majority of championship teams share common elements:

1) Your early round picks stay healthy for the most part
2) Your starting lineup peaks in the key playoff weeks (usually 14-16)
3) You manage to hit big on a few later round sleeper picks

The term “sleeper” has become as overused as the scale on The Biggest Loser. But at its heart, the term conveys a player that you’re high on, and expect to handily outperform the consensus view. Last year, if one of your sleepers was Kevin Walter, you were one happy camper. I was fortunate enough to draft Walter in a majority of my leagues. While I whiffed on PLENTY of picks last year, it only takes two or three guys like Walter to make your draft a contender.

Just in case this is your first year playing fantasy football, let’s quickly review what Kevin Walter did last season:

• 60 receptions
• 899 yards
• 8 TDs
• WR19

Not bad for a guy you could have toward the tail end of your draft. But the stars were aligned for Walter last season. Matt Schaub was highly productive, Andre Johnson commanded consistent double teams, and RB Steve Slaton forced defenses to stay balanced. As a result, Kevin Walter saw a lot of single coverage. To his credit, he made the most of the situation.

But for the very reason Walter was a great ‘sleeper’ last year, I’m not sure he’s going to find his way onto many of my rosters this year. It’s all about ADP with guys like this. Walter, realistically, isn’t going to blossom into an 85-catch, 1,100-yard stud. We have a pretty good understanding of what his role is, and have seen what he can do on a 4,000-yard passing team over a full 16 games. There’s not a ton of upside from here.

His current ADP of WR32 is right in line with where I think his realistic statistical output is this year. Sure, he was WR19 last season, but remember that was primarily as a result of his 8 TD catches. 8 TDs in 95 targets is an unusually high number, particularly for a guy that’s at best the 4th option in the Texans offensive pecking order (behind Johnson, Slaton and Daniels). Let’s not forget that his 2008 season was, in many ways, remarkably close to his 2007 season:

2007 - 65 receptions for 800 yards and 4 TDs
2008 - 60 receptions for 899 yards and 8 TDs

Walter converted 63% of his targets last year, doubled his TD production, and averaged 15 yards per reception, more than 3 yards higher than his previous career average. Those three things equated to a WR19 finish, which means a regression to the norm would put Walter in the Top 25-30 range.

On the plus side, Walter has turned himself into a precise route runner and is a physically imposing pass catcher. I get the sense that many fantasy owners mistake Walter for a 'Wes Welker" to Andre Johnson’s "Randy Moss", but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Walter is 6’3”, 221 pounds, one of the larger receivers in the league. A former 7th round pick by the Giants, Walter meandered through three uneventful seasons in Cincinnati before finding a home in Gary Kubiak’s West Coast offense. He’s now firmly entrenched as a starter, as none of the Texans other receivers pose a credible threat in my estimation. But there’s a difference between drafting a guy for the end of your roster hoping for Top 20 upside, and drafting a guy in the 7th or 8th round expecting the same, if not slightly worse production.

Positives

• Walter is a big, physical receiver who has above average hands and runs sharp routes
• The Texans passing attack is explosive, particularly when Matt Schaub is healthy
• Walter often finds himself in single coverage thanks to the presence of Andre Johnson on the outside, Owen Daniels in the middle, and Steve Slaton in the backfield

Negatives

• Walter's ADP (7th or 8th rounder) no longer makes him a deep sleeper, he's basically being drafted at fair value
• Walter is the 4th option in the Texans offensive hierarchy
• His fantasy upside last year came from unusually high catch % and TD conversion %, some regression to the mean is to be expected

Final Thoughts

As a player, I think the world of Kevin Walter. I think he's a reliable 2nd fiddle to All World Andre Johnson, and is capable of at least another 60 catches and 800 yards in 2009. Unfortunately, unlike a season ago, you have to use a 7th or 8th round pick on Walter, which isn't awful, but for a guy I expect to slot outside the Top 25, he's hardly the value he was in 2008 drafts. My recommendation is to only target Walter if he falls a few rounds past his ADP; he should be viewed as a backup/spot starter in 10- and 12-team leagues. Remember, Kevin Walter helped a lot of us win our leagues last year. But your job is to go out and find THIS YEAR'S Kevin Walter (hint: it's not Kevin Walter). Good hunting.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

nihsumi:
From an AJ owner last year I really started hating this guy by the end of the year. Walter doubled his touchdown totals from 4 to 8 in 2008 and if you just look at the FFL season (weeks 1-16) actually scored more tds than AJ (6). Walters also had 9 red zone targets from weeks 12-16 compared to AJ's 7 a key time in the FFL playoffs. For the FFL season, weeks 1-16, AJ had 26 red zone targets to Walter 24. Walter also had the same number of 3rd down targets as AJ last year - 35.

This team's running game appears to be headed in the right direction where last year their overall rushing tds increased from 9(2007) to 16(2008) and a decrease in passing tds from 24(2007) to 21(2008) with Walter getting 8 of the 21. If we just look at weeks 1-16 Walter had 8 of the 19 passing tds last year with 5 of his 8 tds being in the red zone.

In 2008 probably due to the emergence of AJ it allowed Walter to be in some favorable matchups especially in the red zone. I also believe Walter is hampering Owen's red zone productivity.

Prediction:
Walter - 60 receptions 950 yds - 6 tds

Very similar to last year a slight up tick in yardage w/the possibility of a 1000 yd season in the works w/a drop in td totals. As Houston becomes more successful running the ball and IF CB can punch it in this year when they get down there I think this will have an negative effect on Walters overall tds. I dont know if the defenses will be watching out more for Walters in the red zone this year but if so maybe this year Owen can get more red zone targets. I am optimistic on Houston this year and see them as a team scoring more and gaining more total yards. I believe Walters is a bigger part of the Texans game plan than many realize and it took me last year watching this guy take away catches and tds from AJ before I saw the light. I preferred the Texans passing offense when it was just AJ and Owen.

Penguins:
I actually have been watching and waiting on Kevin Walter news - quite frankly - I'm glad he's going un-noticed.

#2 WR across from AJ - with a capable QB (as long as he's healthy) and a good running game - I see this as a very good situation to end the season with:

1000 yds and 9 tds

floor - 700 yds and 4 tds
ceiling - 1100 yds and 11 tds

Kevin Walter Projections