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Spotlight - RB Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

What a season Michael Turner enjoyed in his first season with the Atlanta Falcons. Nobody questioned Turner's ability to become a starting running back in the NFL but the Falcons offensive line appeared to be in shambles heading into 2008 and not many football fans expected a top-two fantasy campaign. Everything came together wonderfully for the Falcons last year and Turner proved to be durable, explosive and dependable throughout the entire campaign. He averaged almost 24 carries per game and the rushing game took the pressure away from rookie QB Matt Ryan. It was truly a magical campaign for Turner in his fifth NFL season.

The former Northern Illinois star only had 228 carries in his four seasons with the San Diego Chargers. He averaged a strong 5.5 yards per carry however, showing flashes of glory. At 5'10 and 237 pounds, Turner is like a tank and is just as likely to run over the defender as around him. He is very difficult to tackle one-on-one and has enough wiggle to make defenders miss in open space. He is the type of runner that will wear a defense down as the game progresses thanks to his size and power and although he is entering his fifth NFL season, he does not have the touches over his first four seasons that could cause an early-career slowdown.

A synopsis of Turner's five-year career:

• He had just 228 carries for 1257 yards over his four-year Chargers career. He also had just 6 touchdowns
• He never had a top-fifty fantasy season until 2008 (he finished 2nd)
• He has only 17 career receptions for 112 receiving yards
• He averaged 106.2 rushing yards per game with the Falcons
• He finished as a Pro Bowler and an All-Pro last year
• He has a career 4.9 YPC average which is 5th best among active running backs
• He finished with 276 fantasy points in 2008

What went right for Turner and the Falcons' rushing attack in 2008?

It was a big surprise in 2008 to see Turner erupted for the second best fantasy result overall. Not because of any flaw in Turner's ability as most saw him as a very capable starting running back if an opportunity came for him to use his skills but rather some huge question marks in the Falcons offensive personnel. The perceived top weakness of the Falcons last year was the offensive line that indeed had been 'offensive' the season before and did not appear to be improved heading into the season. However, the no-names across the line not only held their own but in addition greatly exceeded expectations and had a great campaign.

The offensive line did not struggle to open holes and Turner was often able to hit the second wave of the defense without being touched. When Turner is able to get up a head of steam, he is difficult to bring down thanks to power and elusiveness. The team ran the ball with efficiency throughout the entire campaign and much of the thanks can go to the Falcons offensive line.

Another huge question mark heading into the season was at quarterback. Rookie Matt Ryan had a swaggered about him entering the season and he proved worthy of a top draft pick. He improved as the season wore on, he became a leader of the team and his passing was crisp and on target. The Falcons passing attack was productive enough that defenses had to honor the pass and not cheat up on the run. As a result, the running attack was able to continue their hot play right into the final weeks of the season.

What should we expect from Turner in 2009?

If anything, heading into this season, the Falcons offense looks stronger than in 2008. The club added elite tight end Tony Gonzalez to the mix and he will create havoc down the middle of the field, perhaps even opening up more space for Turner once he passes the initial wave of lineman. Gonzalez will draw the attention of the linebackers and safeties and play action passing will give opposing defenses fits this season. With Gonzalez inside, veteran Falcons' WR Roddy White draws the attention down the field. He has become an elite NFL receiver and he is building great chemistry with Ryan. With the passing attack looking like it may flourish this season, it should mean good things for Turner.

It may prove unlikely for Turner to match his 376 carries of a season ago. It is not often that a running back will have back-to-back years with that many carries. It takes a toll on any running back, regardless of size and with a more confident passing attack in 2009, Turner may see a small reduction of his carries per game. However, that does not mean it is likely that Turner will plummet down the fantasy rankings. In fact, Turner may well slide into a top-three finish once again this year. Looking at the roster and the Falcons schedule, Turner should average 20+ carries per game with similar yards per carry numbers to a season ago. The biggest advantage he has in Atlanta is simply that the passing attack looks explosive enough that defenses cannot key on shutting down Turner and the running game. Turner is difficult enough to slow down when you can put eight players into the box in an effort to stop his forward progress. With receiving weapons such as Gonzalez and White, defenses will be frustrated by the Falcons offense throughout the season.

Positives

• He proved he could be a workhorse last season. His durability, power and work ethic were second-to-none
• He is a beast to bring down. 237 pounds and strong, powerful thighs wear down defenses as the game goes on
• The team added veteran TE Tony Gonzalez, a signing that should create more open-space for Turner between the tackles as safeties and linebackers will need to honor the pass across the middle of the field

Negatives

• Not a true threat to catch the ball out of the backfield (only 17 career receptions)
• There is some concern that the Falcons offensive line over-achieved in 2008. A second strong campaign will erase all doubts
• He may find it difficult to have another 350+ carry season without injury concerns surfacing.

Final Thoughts

Michael Turner was one of the bigger stories in the NFL last year. Hidden away behind LaDainian Tomlinson for years in San Diego, he stepped out of his former teammates' shadow in a huge way in 2008. He became a true star at the position, putting up rushing statistics that few running backs ever achieve and he was the MVP of many fantasy leagues. This year with the addition of TE Gonzalez and the continued maturation of second-year QB Matt Ryan, the only thing likely to derail Turner from another magical season will be injuries. He is an elite fantasy player right now and deserves to go inside the top-five of your fantasy draft.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Just Win Baby:
A few things.

Using Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule for RBs from 6/16, we can see that Atlanta is projected to be right in the middle of the NFL in terms of its RB SOS. Noteworthy is that it shows Atlanta's schedule to be about 5% tougher than last season for RBs.

Meanwhile, Clayton's SOS for QBs article from 6/16 shows that Atlanta is projected to be tied for last in the league in terms of QB SOS (i.e., tied for the most difficult QB schedule). It shows Atlanta's schedule to be about 9% tougher than last season for QBs.

Looking at the schedules, it makes sense. Last year, outside the division the Falcons played the AFC West, NFC North, Philadelphia, and St. Louis... who had a cumulative record of 59-100-1. This year, they play the AFC East, NFC East, Chicago, and San Francisco, who last year had a cumulative record of 92-67-1. While I realize this is an imprecise way to judge teams for this year, since there are a lot of changes year to year, that is a huge gap, so I think the overall conclusion that the overall quality of their opponents seems to be higher this year is reasonable. Which means it is reasonable to think they will face tougher defenses overall.

How does this affect Turner specifically? Well, here is one set of splits of Turner's carries to consider from last season:

Ahead 212/990/11
Tied - 74/400/2
Behind - 90/309/4

Turner got roughly 18% of his rushing yards and 24% of his carries and TDs when behind. This isn't necessarily too surprising, as it makes sense that teams rush less when behind than when they aren't. But given the tougher schedule, will Atlanta be playing from behind more? It seems reasonable to think so. Here's the problem for Turner. For some RBs, that would simply mean a shift, with fewer carries but more receptions. But Turner is not involved in the passing game. As others have suggested, he'll probably top the 6 receptions he had last year, but overall this likely means less opportunity for Turner this year IMO.

Let's also look at the extraordinary number of red zone and goal line opportunities Turner got last season. First, here are the top 6 RBs in terms of carries in the red zone last year:

Turner 72
Slaton 63
Jones 62
Tomlinson 56
Peterson 53
Portis 48

How about goal line carries (using DD, so 5 yard line to goal):

White 21
Slaton 18
Jacobs 18
Turner 17
Johnson 17
McClain 17
Jones 16

(By the way, looking at this data, Slaton stood out as being extraordinarily bad at this, but that's for another discussion...)

What to make of this? Well, Turner had 17 TDs last year. 12 were inside the 5, and only 2 were from outside the red zone. Assuming the Falcons will be playing from behind more often... and knowing that Ryan should be better... and knowing the Falcons added Gonzalez... I'd say Turner will get slightly fewer goal line carries and substantially fewer red zone carries... perhaps 45 red zone carries, including 15 goal line carries. I'd say these factors are enough to drop him to the 10-12 range for TDs.

I don't put much stock in the 370 carry rule (or the n carry rule), but I do think it is unlikely he will maintain his 4.5 ypc against the tougher schedule and in following his 395 carry season last year... I could particularly see him starting to wear down a bit late in the season. It does appear that his SOS is pretty good in weeks 14-17, but Ryan's is the worst in the league (again referring to Clayton's projections), so that might not enable Turner to completely take advantage of his attractive schedule.

puckalicious:
ATL had only 265 pass completions last year and I see many reasons to expect that to go up - Ryan maturing, adding Gonzo, etc so it isn't that crazy to project barely more than 1 reception per game for Turner. RBs that get that many touches rarely have such a low reception total (only 4 RBs since 1960 w/300+ carries have had less receptions than Turner did last year).

That being said I don't expect him to catch that many balls and you're right that the vast majority of his value is on the ground. IMO he's a top-10 lock but will be a little overvalued.

rzrback77:
Michael Turner had extraordinary success last year in his first season as a starter. Several had predicted this success for years as he languished behind LT, but most failed to predict it in his first season with the Falcons due to the extremely low expectations there in 08. They had a new system, a new coach, a new QB, and nobody predicted team success so more projections were on the low side for Turner. But did he ever perform. He had 377 rushes, an average of over 23 per game and even with all those carries, he averaged 4.5 ypc for 1699 yards. He did very little in the passing attack, but with 23 rushes per game. he needed some rest some time didn't he?

I still think that Turner will see the lion's share of the carries, but his goal line looks will probably decrease for two reasons. The Falcons will face stiffer division opponents this year and may have fewer scoring chances and they added Gonzo, a redzone efficiency expert.

Overall, Turner has not had a lot of carries as he spent four years backing up LT. However, last season he had 395 carries (including the playoffs) and I see them trying to spell him just a little in 09.

switz:
There is both reason for optimism and concern with Michael Turner. Like DeAngelo Williams, much of his success was dependent on some extremely good games against some extremely bad competition. The edge that Turner has is workload, and offensive improvement.

Last year Turner faced defense after defense stacked against the running game, hoping to force Ryan to win the games and in the process make mistakes. However, as Ryan developed, defensive alignments became more evenly balanced, and we should see even more of that this year, perhaps even tilting to more pass defenses than run defenses.

Still, the sub-4.0 YPC in many games has to leave owners concerned, as well as the heavy workload.

I would expect Turner to improve his performance in many games, maintaining a 4.5 YPC for the season, but more evenly distributed.

Michael Turner Projections