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Spotlight - RB Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 8/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

The NFL is supposed to be harder than this. When a player of a certain importance goes down to injury or leaves in free agency, it's not supposed to be as easy as plugging in the next guy on the roster and picking up where you left off. But the New Orleans Saints offense makes that truism a fallacy. It seems that no matter which cog of Sean Payton's machine gets broken, they keep things rolling as long as Drew Brees is under center.

Last year, we saw that the Saints running game is cut from a similar cloth. With Reggie Bush broken down (and ineffective) as usual, and Deuce McAllister running on fumes, Pierre Thomas burst into the lineup and helped maintain the Saints powerful offense.

After being inserted into the lineup, Thomas was a beast. In six games:

• 93 rushes
• 475 rushing yards
• 5.1 yards per rush
• 6 rushing TDs
• 19 receptions
• 202 receiving yards
• 3 receiving TDs

Over a full 16-game schedule, that projects to:

• 248 rushes
• 1,267 rushing yards
• 16 rushing TDs
• 51 receptions
• 539 receiving yards
• 8 receiving TDs

To put this in another context, take a look at the fantasy RB rankings over the final six weeks of 2008:

Thomas was the 4th best fantasy back once he got into the lineup. But are we looking at too small a sample size to take seriously? Fantasy owners have been burned by players who flourished for a few weeks before. Derek Anderson looked like a Top 5 fantasy passer for six weeks in 2007, and then totally whiffed in 2008. Kevan Barlow still sends shivers down Footballguys' subscribers' backs. Some people are still drafting Drew Bennett on the strength of a three week run a half a decade ago. So what assurances do we have that Pierre Thomas' monster six-week run wasn't a fluke?

Everything about this offseason supports a major role for Thomas
If Pierre Thomas was a fluke, if he was just on a hot streak at the right time with the right opportunity, then why did the Saints do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to provide him with competition for touches?

• The parted ways with Deuce McAllister
• They signed no one in free agency
• They passed on RB in the NFL draft

The Saints had an entire offseason to bring in someone to compete. Even if they didn't see value in the 1st or 2nd round of the April draft, they would've at least used a 6th or 7th rounder to push him, right? Meanwhile backs like Warrick Dunn and Edgerrin James are still in the free agent heap lobbying for work. Yet the Saints stand resolute. That's a HUGE endorsement for Thomas, in my opinion.

But Reggie Bush is the real star of that backfield, right?
Is he really? He's certainly the highest paid member of the RB stable, but is he really a star? Let's quickly recap the first 3-years of Bush's career.

Reggie Bush's 3-year Rushing Averages:

• 139 rushing attempts
• 517 rushing yards
• 3.7 yards per attempt
• 4 rushing TDs

Reggie Bush has been completely ineffective as a runner. He's never averaged more than 3.8 yards per rush in a season, has seen his TD rate fall from 6 to 4 to 2, and hasn't had more than 157 carries. As if that weren't enough to discount his 'threat' for touches, remember that Bush has also failed to stay healthy. He missed 6 games last year, and has complained about knee pain this offseason. Is there any rational person who thinks Bush is somehow going to morph into a RB that can shoulder the rushing load?

OK, but the Saints are a passing team first and foremost, right?
You'll get no argument for me there. The Saints have attempted more than 600 passes in each of the last two seasons, and seem poised to rank up there again so long as Drew Brees is healthy. But just because the Saints throw a lot, doesn't mean the running attack isn't a fantasy commodity. Did you realize that the Saints have scored 53 rushing TDs over the last three seasons? Someone has to get those carries in the red zone, and Thomas is a much better bet (even in six games) than Reggie Bush.

Let's not forget that Thomas isn't just the Thunder to Bush's Lightning
As bad as Bush may be running the ball, he's elite as a receiver. Bush has averaged 71 receptions for 533 yards and 3 TDs over his career. That may lead some people to think Thomas is going to be the bruiser to Bush's elusive change of pace. But that's the great thing about Thomas. Last year he averaged an astounding 10.3 YAC per reception; 2nd in the league. Not only was Thomas 2nd in the league, he generated 3 yards more of YAC per reception than a certain Reggie Bush [7.5 YACpR].

Positives

• Thomas was the 4th best fantasy RB last year after getting into the starting lineup
• The Saints did nothing this offseason to pose any credible threat to Thomas' increase role
• Thomas ADP and projections assume Reggie Bush plays a major role (RBBC), but let's not forget Bush's injury history and his ineffectiveness as a runner

Negatives

• Thomas' productivity came in a small six-week sample size
• The Saints are a pass first team
• Thomas will cost you a 3rd rounder in most leagues, there's little room for him to disappoint

Final Thoughts

Pierre Thomas was a revelation last year, but it came in a six week span. Plenty of part-time stars were hyped heading into the next year but floundered. While I can understand the concern, I think it's misplaced this time. The Saints had an entire offseason to sign someone or draft someone to compete. They didn't. They also let Deuce McAllister go. And Reggie Bush is complaining about his knees already. The Saints scored 53 rushing TDs in the last three seasons, and Thomas is in line for a major role with or without Bush's involvement. He's admittedly a higher risk/higher reward option for RB2 than some may be comfortable with, but if he's there in the 3rd or 4th round, it will be hard to justify passing on him.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

LarryAllen'sJockstrap:
Say what you want about Reggie Bush, but as long as he is healthy enough to get on the field, he WILL get carries. Prior to Bush going down, in weeks 1-8, Thomas had a total of 37 touches (30 carries, 7 receptions).

That being said, based on the way he finished the season, I do expect him to see an increased role.

Last year New Orleans ran the ball 398 times as a team. In 2007, they ran it 397. I think a safe assumption would be right around 400 carries as a team for 09.

Out of those 400, ~350 should go to the primary RBs (Thomas/Bush).

Bush should be good for 8-10 carries a games, leaving Thomas with about 200 for the season.

Additionally, most of Thomas receptions didn't come until after Bush went down. If Bush, Colston, Moore and the rest of the gang are healthy, I see little reason to expect more than 30-35 catches for Thomas.

The one plus he does have is with Bush's inside running, Thomas should be the primary GL back.

ratbast:
I'm with you guys. Bush is going to be a factor in most of the games he plays but he's not going to eliminate PTs impact during those games. Bush ability to get hurt counters PTs lack of "workhorse" history. There is a very good chance that PT is the "workhorse" of a Great offense for much of the year, and even more likely later in the year I think he is the most Underrated #2 RB. Especially in TD heavy leagues.

SexyRexy:
Three things worry me about Thomas.

1. His late season surge was against a pathetic slate of defenses (30th, 26th, 19th, 25th, 5th and 32nd ranked rush Ds). I'm skeptical that he can be as productive vs a less crappy schedule.
2. It coincided with the annual Reggie Bush injury. Bush is currently healthy so I'm wondering how much PT will get the ball until Bush is hurt again. We did get a glimpse last year but I don't know if that is enough to say. Also was Bush banged up when they were sharing time? I don't remember.
3. Can he hold up to a full season of regular carries? He's never really done that-even in college he shared with Mendenhall etc. (career high 152 carries). He's not a big guy.

These three things will probably cause me to rank Thomas low enough so that I won't end up drafting him.

rzrback77:
I see a ful blown RBBC in New Orleans this year. The talk is that Pierre Thomas bulked up so that he could be the effective pile driving RB for the Saints, but I am not sure that would be his forte. I see him and Reggie Bush as both being effective in similar situations. I am curious whether the bulking up for more power experiment will make him less useful in space than a year ago.

Lots of folks are excited based on his performance down the stretch, but he only had over twenty carries once. A lot of his fantasy production was based on the fact that he scored nine TDs in the last six games. He ran well, don't get me wrong, but I am not counting on that type of TD performance.

The Saints have not been strong in the power running game since Deuce has been hurt. In addition to cutting him in the off-season, they also lost their FB, Mike Karney and replaced him with Heath Evans. I am not sure that Evans is as solid a blocker as Karney and will be new to the system.

The good news for Pierre Thomas is that Deuce is gone and he will only have Reggie Bush to contend with. The trouble with that is that when healthy, Reggie has been extremely involved in the game plan. If Bush gets injured again, then Thomas will have ample opportunity to shine, but if Reggie stays healthy, then these two will split the opportunities equally with a 50-50 share. Last year, the Saints ran the ball 371 times while throwing 635 passes. I think that they would rather run a little more, but will need to do better to sustain drives with that game plan. I'll say a reduction of 35 passes and an increase of 20 rushes for more of a 60-40 split.

Close production between the two with Bush favored in PPR leagues, but both players being startable. Currently, Thomas has a slightly higher ADP at RB18 and 35 overall than Bush at RB20 and 42 overall.

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