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Spotlight - QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Posted on 7/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

The Houston Texans appear to be a team on the way up the ladder, their rushing attack found some legs last season thanks to improved blocking and the play of rookie RB Steve Slaton and the passing attack has at times looked unstoppable over the past couple of seasons. What does all that mean when it comes to Matt Schaub's 2009 potential statistics? Let's find out.

A breakdown of Schaub's first two seasons in Houston

2007

Some things went very good and some things not as great for Schaub in his first season as a Texan two years ago. On the positive side, he completed an impressive 66.4% of his passes, finished with 7.8 yards per passing attempt and had a decent interception percentage of 3.1%. However, his touchdown percentage of 3.1% was not good enough and too often, the team struggled to move the ball with him at the helm. He had five games in which he failed to throw a touchdown pass and did not have a three-touchdown game all season. He also missed five games due to injury. In fact, many Texans' fans were calling for veteran QB Sage Rosenfels to be named the starter as he managed to toss 15 touchdowns in just 240 passing attempts.

2008

Last season, Schaub went from a decent starting option to a very good one. Some of his statistics were similar to his 2007 numbers. He completed 66.1% of his throws and had 8.0 yards per passing attempt. However, his interception percentage dropped to 2.6% while his touchdown percentage increased to 3.9%. He looked more confident on the field and became the leader of the Texans offense. Of concern however were the five games he missed once again due to injury. Back to back seasons of eleven games played is certainly a concern going forward but his eight games of 250+ passing yards and his five games with multiple-touchdown passes cannot be ignored. Schaub averaged an amazing 277 passing yards per game last year, which translates into a 4426 passing yard season prorated to an entire 16-game campaign. The bottom line is he made significant strides as the starting quarterback, allowing the Texans to part ways with veteran QB Sage Rosenfels who slipped in production last year.

What can we expect from Schaub in 2009?

When breaking down Schaub's potential statistics this season, one must look at both his personal growth as well as the team's growth.

1) Schaub's personal growth as a player
2) The Texans overall growth as a team

Let's first break down Schaub's own personal growth

It is easy to see Schaub's progression from a project starting quarterback to a confident, proven leader in just two short seasons. As illustrated above, his statistics in 2008 were significantly better than his first season in Houston but more importantly, he became the leader of the offense on the field. His ability to spread the ball around to his different receivers (four different players caught 50+ passes) made it challenging for defenses to contain the passing attack and as the year wore on, you could see a certain swagger in the body language of Schaub. The coaching staff, the fans, the teammates and Schaub himself began to believe in his abilities and that should only continue to blossom in 2009.

The next obvious step in Schaub's personal growth (other than staying healthy) is to add another percentage point or two to his overall touchdown percentage while the interception percentage drops to the low twos. Last year, the Texans finished with 555 passing attempts. If Schaub throws the ball 500 times in 2009, a good result would be 25+ touchdowns or a 5% touchdown percentage. With his strong completion percentage and yards per attempt, 500+ attempts should result in 4000 yards, and a top-five fantasy finish.

Can he stay healthy?

Here is the million-dollar question. If he plays all sixteen games, it is almost impossible NOT to project him as a top-five fantasy quarterback. He was top-five at the position per game last year and he is continuing to improve his craft. Two years ago, he suffered a shoulder injury that could point to a durability issue or just random bad luck. Last year however he missed another five games with both a knee injury and intestinal problems. Now he has a definite red flag due to ten missed games over two seasons. However, in fantasy leagues that are head-to-head each week, Schaub will do very well and if he misses a few games, it just means it is important to have a good fantasy backup in place. For what it's worth, the sample is too small to declare Schaub an injury risk at this point. If he misses significant amounts of time again in 2009, then an argument can be made about his durability.

The breakdown of the Texans' overall team growth

Make no mistake about it folks; the Texans are a team on the way up the NFL ladder. The young defense is starting to develop, the rushing attack, led by super sophomore Steve Slaton is improving and the passing attack is strong. The once weak sisters of the NFL are growing up and could be a true force to reckon with as early as this season. Last year the defense still gave up huge chunks of yardage and too many points against. That forced the Texans hand into playing catch-up too often throughout the season.

If the Texans defense improves, what does it mean to the Texans' passing numbers?

If the defense can stiffen up or even continue at the pace they were at towards the end of last season, it is possible the Texans will not need to stretch the field so often. With an improving running game in place, the Texans may find themselves in more situations this year to run the clock down, protecting the leads instead of constantly attempting to catch back up. There is a very real possibility that as a team, the Texans will throw no more than 500 passes this year, down 10+ percent from last season. That means unless Schaub can play in every game, his per-game stats could take a small hit thanks to a better overall team effort.

Positives

• Improved confidence and leadership in 2008: He became the leader on the football field for the Texans and should continue his growth in this area
• Has an excellent set of skilled position players to get the ball to including an elite player in WR Andre Johnson
• Has excellent accuracy and has completed 66% of his passes over the past two seasons.

Negatives

• Has missed 10 games over the past two seasons
• Has not thrown as many touchdowns per attempts as you would like to see a good starting quarterback provide
• May not throw as many passes if the Texans defense can perform at a higher level than years past

Final Thoughts

Schaub is emerging as a true leader of the Texans offense. He has also become a fantasy force as he finished as a Top-5 quarterback in fantasy football points per game played. There is no reason for Schaub not to continue his personal growth on the field and the only things that could hold him back from cracking the Top-5 at the quarterback position is a continuation of injury woes or a more conservative game plan thanks to improved defensive efforts in Houston. Overall, however, as a player likely available at the end of Round Six, beginning of Round Seven, he could pay huge dividends for a fantasy roster in 2009. Do not be afraid to draft him as your QB1 in 2009. His upside is as high as all but a few elite quarterbacks around the NFL.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Chase Stuart, Footballguys Staff:
Schaub played really well last year, but is considered a sleeper this season. Why is that? Because he missed some time due to injury and because he played a difficult schedule. Drew Brees was far and away the #1 fantasy QB last season, but Schaub -- when he was actually on the field -- played as well as any other fantasy QB did outside of Brees. Romo, Schaub, Rodgers, Rivers and Warner all averaged around 24.5 adjFP/adjG last season, which adjusts for games played and SOS. Warner has age issues, Romo lost T.O.; but that means Rodgers, Rivers and Schaub should all be on that same level.

Rodgers and Rivers have ADPs in the top 5 among QBs; Schaub is at #11. I think a lot of people recognize that inconsistency, and that's why Schaub is on so many sleeper lists.

Banger:
I loved Schaub last year and acquired him on all my teams...this year I'll still target him late but he's getting more expensive. Last year, he and Rosenfels combined for 4400 passing yards which was good for 4th in the NFL on a ypg basis. I don't really see their offense changing a great deal as they didn't really add any major parts on the offense that would indicate they are going to alter their attack.

TheDirtyWord:
In fairness to Schaub, he has been beset by legitimate injuries. But until he proves his durability over a 16 game schedule, he will provoke skepticism by not only fantasy leaguers, but by Texans followers as well. The Texans as an organization need for Schaub to take this team by the horns for the entire year and they've essentially bet on Schaub to do just that by trading Rosenfels. In addition, for someone who has been as prolific as Schuab has been throwing the ball, only 24 of his 669 (3.58% TD rate) attempts as Texans QB have gone for TD's. That is decidedly mediocre, especially when considering he's got an asset like Andre Johnson to throw to. Schaub should be making it his personal mission to get Johnson into the 12-13 TD range this year. He only threw 5 TD's to Johnson in 2008.

That said, I believe in Schaub. I think he's an extremely underrated talent. One who hasn't earned the type of respect his production would warrant. Of course, the Texans as a franchise need to emerge for that to have a greater chance at happening. I think this is the year it comes together.

rzrback77:
I really like Matt Schaub's prospects for 09. He is in an up and coming offense with three or four outstanding receiving options. Their recent history has been to pass a lot and with AJ why wouldn't you? He has missed five games in each of the past two seasons, but I am not sold that is all on the player. I think that Houston's offensive line has improved some and should expect better protection.

Flea Flicker:
One thing not mentioned yet is Schaub's contract status. Not that I think he needs the extra motivation necessary to play well, but having some moneybag.gif on the line doesn't hurt. He is reaching the midpoint of a 6-year deal that will pay him a $10 million option bonus if exercised before 2010.

He's coached by a former QB, and he's tougher than his # of games played the last two seasons has shown. Given how low you can probably get him as your QB1 (seems most rank him around QB11-QB13 on average), it's wise to take your QB2 sooner than later with this strategy anyway.

Schaub will really need to show some improved ability to convert in the redzone. He'd be a lock to throw for more than 4,000 yards in a full season; what's really questionable for him (and in turn for the likes of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels) is whether he has progressed enough to make the right decisions when the field's shorter. The offensive system (combined with the ZBS running game) imported from Denver probably has a passing TD ceiling of around 25 TDs, so keep that in mind if you're inclined to push the high end of the projections here in even the best scenarios.

Matt Schaub Projections