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Spotlight - QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 8/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

It's always a flip of the coin when it comes to drafting a QB early in the first round. For every Peyton Manning, there's a Ryan Leaf. For every Donovan McNabb there's an Akili Smith. For every Philip Rivers there's a Tim Couch. You get the idea.

Regardless of whether an NFL franchise picks the right guy to lead the franchise, it's always been a smart fantasy move to avoid rookie QBs. Period. Even if a QB is going to end up in the Hall of Fame, his rookie season is going to be full of pitfalls and learning experiences; assuming he even sees the field.

Did you realize that Peyton Manning led the NFL with 28 interceptions as a rookie? Here are the top 20 rookie fantasy seasons (1960-2007) prior to last year:

As you can see from this list, it doesn't take too long before you get into some middling production. The fact Rick Mirer has the 3rd best fantasy season for a rookie should tell you just how difficult it is for a 1st year passer to matter to your fantasy league. But just when you're SURE about something in fantasy football, the NFL fates usually find a way of making you look silly. Sure enough, last season Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco both had respectable seasons, both cracking the all-time Top 5 on the aforementioned list. Matt Ryan's 246.4 fantasy points last year is second only to Peyton Manning's rookie output.

• 265 completions
• 434 attempts
• 61.1% completion rate
• 3,440 yards
• 16 TDs
• 11 INTs
• 7.9 yards per attempt
• QB15 fantasy ranking

By most objective measures, Ryan had a great rookie season. Our own Chase Stuart makes a convincing argument that Ryan had THE BEST rookie season in NFL history . Either way, it bodes well for Ryan to be a productive fantasy passer for years to come. Here are a number of reasons to be optimistic about Ryan in 2009.

1) Ryan will improve naturally -- Competent QBs improve with experience, that's undeniable. The speed of the game slows down, the understanding of the playbook deepens, and the rapport with coaches and offensive teammates builds. Ryan, like any other 2nd year starter, will be better by virtue of the natural maturation process.

2) The Falcons are going to throw the ball more -- What's most impressive about Ryan's rookie output is that he only threw the ball 434 times (29th in the NFL). While the Falcons aren't going to abandon their league-best running attack, there's every reason to think the play-calling will be more balanced. Ryan warrants more freedom, and the team wants to keep Michael Turner's workload lighter so they don't risk wearing him out. Don't expect 600 passing attempts, but it would be perfectly logical to expect 500-525 attempts.

3) Tony Gonzalez has joined the team -- Say what you will about Tony Gonzalez' age, but he's coming off one of his most dominant seasons and is inarguably one of the league's best tight ends. He's still in great shape, and his addition gives Ryan the luxury of a short- and intermediate-threat to work the chains; something he lacked in 2008. Gonzalez may be in new surroundings, but remember that Gonzo has thrived in a variety of situations throughout his career. He's had good/bad quarterbacking, good/bad defenses, good/bad running at tacks, good/bad receiving corps and good/bad coaching. Throughout it all, Gonzo has always gotten his job done.

4) Roddy White is an elite receiver -- A quarterback doesn't necessarily need an elite WR to put up solid fantasy numbers, but it sure helps. Last season, White had 88 catches for nearly 1,300 yards and is unquestionably one of the league's top 10 pass catchers. To think he did all that in his first season with Ryan; this year, the sky is quite literally the limit.

5) The offensive line is rock solid -- 17 sacks. The Falcons only allowed 17 sacks last year, blocking for a rookie. I'm sure I don't need to convince you that the easiest path to elite quarterbacking is good pass protection. Just take a look at how infrequently Tom Brady and Peyton Manning get hit, and you'll understand the value of a good pass-blocking unit.

6) The defense has question marks -- The Falcons were a respectable 11th in points allowed but only 24th in yards allowed. Teams marched up and down the field against Atlanta last year. This season the team is integrating some new pieces and it's reasonable to expect some growing pains. That means the Falcons offense is going to have to win some shootouts, a fantasy owners dream scenario.

Positives

• Ryan enjoyed one of the most productive rookie seasons in NFL history
• The addition of Tony Gonzalez gives him a well-rounded and diverse set of options
• The offensive line and running game assure that he'll have time to throw and receivers in single coverage

Negatives

• Ryan isn't all that mobile, any regression in the line's pass-blocking could subject him to undue punishment
• The Falcons, by virtue of their 11-5 record, face a more difficult schedule
• There's a chance the team could reprise last year's run/pass balance given how successful it was

Final Thoughts

There's little question in my mind Matt Ryan will be a Top 8-10 fantasy passer on a per attempt basis. The question we all have to ask ourselves is whether the Falcons really will throw more in 2009? Given Ryan's maturation, the addition of Tony Gonzalez, the presence of Roddy White, the likelihood of a mediocre defense and the team's stated goal of keeping Michael Turner fresh, I think it's a no brainer that Atlanta throws the ball 500+ times this year. If I'm right, and Ryan stays healthy, you're looking at the first of many Top 10 fantasy seasons for him. His current ADP (QB9) leaves little room for error, but don't let that scare you off. He's an IDEAL QB2 this year assuming you're comfortable drafting 2 QBs in the first 8 or 9 rounds.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

The Man with the Plan:
In his rookie year he put up great numbers 16 TD 11 INT 3440 Yds. With another year of experience and the addition of the best TE in the game Tony Gonzalez I think that Matt Ryan joins the fantasy elite in 2009. I wouldn't be surprised if he throws for over 4000 yards and 25+ touchdowns this year.

David Yudkin, Footballguys Staff:
Since Jason was looking for discussion, I am in the camp that Ryan and the Falcons may not have things as easy as last year. I have nothing substantial to hang my hat on in that regard much more than a hunch, but here is some of that rationale...

- ATL faced 11 teams ranked in the bottom half of the league and a veritable who's who of the bottom of ten (7 opponents including DET, KC, CHI, NO twice, DEN, and SD).

- Replacing many of those easier out of division games with the likes of NE, BUF, MIA, NYJ, DAL, PHI, NYG, and WAS and the Falcons should be up against some stiffer competition this year.

- For the most part, the offensive unit stayed healthy in 2008. While it's impossible to accurately predict injuries, karma seems to have a way of catching up with you and it's very difficult for everyone to stay healthy in consecutive years.

- ATL was called for 50% fewer penalties than their oppoents in 2008. And they turned the ball over 50% less than in 2007. Hard to predict how things will change, but I'm guessing things will even out in these areas.

- Other rookie QBs have not improved from Year One to Year Two and some actually lost ground. I don't hold much stock in this as every situation is different, so what Jim Kelly did as a rookie, for example, really has no bearing on what Ryan will do this year.

- Ryan averaged nearly eight yards per attempt which is extremely efficient. As Jason said, to jump up in the ranking he will need to keep a high ypa while adding in more passing attempts. ATL ranked 2nd in rushing attempts and 29th in passing attempts...not exactly what you want to see if you want big QB production.

- If nothing else, the NFL as a whole is quick to make adjustments from year to year. I doubt many teams will be surprised with the Falcons this year and defenses will have a full offseason of tape to better defend the Falcons. I realize you can make that argument about a lot of teams, but last year a lot changed in ATL and teams will be better prepared.

- The Falcons defense was not great but good enough last year. They ranked in the bottom 10 in many rushing and passing categories but somehow raned in the top third in the league in points allowed. Those two normally don't coexist, and the Falcons must have thought that as well as they invested the huge majority of their draft picks on defensively players.

- If the defense really succeded basically on smoke and mirrors last year, the team will want to keep the defense off of the field by continuing with a hard hitting ground attack.

- Ryan ranked 15th last season playing every down on offense. He can't play more than he did. However, other QBs that ranked behind him could. Give a couple of those guys more playing time and suddenly Ryan could slip a couple of slots. (Again, I realize that players that finished ahead of him could also get hurt this year to counteract that.)

I think the future is very bright for Ryan and the Falcons and adding in Gonzalez should be an asset. But I wonder if Tony G will mostly take away production from others rather than simply adding to what was already there.

I'm still tinkering with what I would project for him, but I'd probably rank him lower than the rest of the staff. I don't think he'll do worse than last year production wise, but I'm not on board with a big leap this year. I think that's coming once he learns and gets more experienced, but this year may have some speed bumps.

Terps2002:
Ryan was ranked 15th in one league I am in and 11th in the other. In a 12-16 team league that makes him a fantasy starter now.

Atlanta's offensive philosophy was based on Ryan being a rookie. The top two teams who lead the NFL in rushing attempts were Baltimore and Atlanta, both of them started rookie qb's the whole year. Ryan was protected early as he adjusted to the NFL game and late when the Falcons were just trying to make the playoffs.

Ryan's biggest fantasy downfall was he had 11 games with 1 td or less. On the plus side of that he did have 11 games with at least 1 td pass which to me is very solid for a rookie qb with only one legitimate wide receiver.

To me Tony G changes everything for Atlanta, there wasn't one threat on Atlanta who can work the middle of the field before he came to town. Ryan now has options in the passing game besides Roddy White being doubled, Norwood flaring out of the backfield or Jenkins running those 7 yard crossing, comeback or out patterns. Either you double Roddy or your double Tony G, either way that leaves an All Pro receiving threat in single coverage.

Michael Turner is 27 years old right now, he will be 28 right at the end of next season. While he doesn't have alot of wear and tear on his body he did carry the ball 376 times last year and I believe that Atlanta would be smart to take a small bit of the load off of his shoulders to maximize his potential. The last two backs to carry the ball more then 376 times in a season were Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson and nobody is hinging their fantasy success this year on these two guys.

TheDirtyWord:
You've got to remember that Ryan, as impressive as he was in 2008, was still a rookie. To that end, I don't think the Falcons coaching staff ever said 'put us on your back'. They knew they had Michael Turner and he was going to be the one that the Falcons were going to ride. While they gaveRyan the entire playbook and the ability to run the offense in a hurry up mode -rare responsibilities for a rookie, he was still a piece to the puzzle. I think his stature and the Falcons reliance on him as one of the bedrocks to their future success will increase in Year 2.

What we know about Ryan is that he's a gym and film room rat. When Mike Smith arrived at Flowery Branch (Falcons HQ) the next morning after their playoff loss to Arizona, he was startled to see Ryan already breaking down game tape. Ryan seems completely dedicated to becoming the best possible QB he can be. He has no shortage of weapons at his disposal.

The next steps in the Falcons progression needs to be to diversify the formula by which they win. They were very successful last year because they jumped out to early leads and forced their opponents to play one-dimensional football that covered up a significant team flaw; run defense. They gave up 4.9 YPC but ranked 21st in terms of rushing attempts against. I'd be surprised if the Falcons could rely on that formula so heavily again. To that point, Ryan had 54 more pass attempts in the 1st half of games in 2008.

One more point, specifically about Gonzalez. The Falcons, and more specifically Ryan's performance, in the red zone was adequate. They could pound it in with Turner, but the passing game significantly bogged down. Part of that is because with Turner in the game, Ryan did not have a pass catching threat at RB or TE. Harry Douglas, WR3/slot receiver, was a rookie and is a small target. So defenses knew that the Falcons were going to White or Jenkins. Couple that with Ryan trying to survey a short field as a rookie...well, Jason Elam was busy. Having three viable, if not above average to elite, weapons in the passing game in the red zone will be a significanyt development to Ryan's success inside the 20.

So, as you can expect, I'm bullish on Ryan...

Matt Ryan Projections