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Spotlight - WR Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos

Posted on 8/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

If projecting fantasy football was as simple as slotting a player based solely on his abilities, Eddie Royal would be an easy person to recommend. He burst onto the scene with a rookie season to remember, catching 91 receptions for 980 yards and 5 TDs. He finished as the 20th best fantasy WR, quite an accomplishment for a rookie WR.

But few players are dealing with as much change and uncertainty as Royal this year. And, as a result, it's hard to recommend him without laying out a number of caveats.

A New Coaching Regime
Mike Shanahan's long tenure in Denver has come to an end, and Broncos owner Pat Bowlen hired young Josh McDaniels as his replacement McDaniels has been Bill Belichick's offensive coordinator in New England the last few seasons, and is expected to implement the same pro-style offense in Denver. McDaniels may be a talented coach, but he's never been a head coach and -- based on what we've seen of him this offseason -- I have grave concerns. McDaniels is trying to coach with the same autocracy that Belichick is known for; which just can't work until a coach has earned that right. I'm stunned at how many people seem to think it's a fait accompli that McDaniels system will be a success. My what quick memories people have. Has Charlie Weis been a runaway success at Notre Dame? Was Eric Mangini awesome in New York? Was Romeo Crennel a winner in Cleveland? And this notion of a 'system' is misguided. Think through the litany of Bill Walsh disciples who failed to match his success with the WCO. A system is only as good as its coaches and its players; and the Broncos don't have Tom Brady, or Randy Moss, or Wes Welker. And they CERTAINLY don't have Bill Belichick.

Beware the Myth of Continuous Improvement
Fantasy owners tend think all players follow a natural career arc. They start as rookies, steadily improve until a peak season, and then gradually decline until a major fall off leads to the end of their careers. Were it only that simple. This phenomenon is especially pronounced with young players who perform well. Everyone assumes that if a player did really well in Year N, and is young, he's going to improve in Year N+1. Yet, so much of an NFL player's performance is contingent on things outside his own control.

Royal and DeSean Jackson became the 22nd and 23rd rookie WRs in NFL history to have at least 900 yards receiving.

I guarantee you that a poll of most fantasy owners would have expected each of these guys to have a 1,000+ yard season in Year Two. And they would've been dead wrong. I took a look at the 21 receivers to go over 900 yards and compared their fantasy points per game in Year N to the following year. THIRTEEN OF THE TWENTY ONE (we excluded Jackson and Royal b/c they haven't played another season yet) ACTUALLY DECLINED the following season.

My point is not to say Eddie Royal is going to disappoint expectations this year. Rather, I wanted to illustrate that we rely on fallacies, one of which is that because a rookie has a standout season, he's bound for greatness in the next year. Don't project greatness for Royal because of what he did last year in a vacuum, only do so if you think his situation is advantageous.

The Brandon Marshall Conundrum
Brandon Marshall has caught 206 passes in the last two years, and his presence in the lineup would help the rest of the Broncos offense to say the least. But it's still not clear whether he'll be in the lineup. His legal issues were resolved benignly, but he wants a new contract and the team hasn't budged on that demand. As I write this, Marshall was a healthy scratch in the Broncos last preseason game, and has expressed a lack of trust between management, the coaches and himself.

It's very difficult to know what to expect of Royal without knowing what to expect from Marshall.

If Marshall plays, I expect Royal to be the WR2 and underneath option. He would be a solid contributor, in PPR leagues especially, but I would be wary of expecting much improvement from last year's WR20 finish; and might even expect a slight decline.

If Marshall is traded (or benched), the story changes a bit. As we've seen in practice and preseason game action, Royal is clearly the top target when Marshall is out of the lineup. In that scenario, I expect he would get an increased number of targets, but also be covered by the opposing team's best defensive backs. I still don't know that we would need to worry about Royal being double though, because the Broncos are going to make frequent use of 3-WR sets (featuring Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney). Without Marshall, I think Royal is safely a top 15-20 receiver in both traditional and PPR leagues.

Orton's Effect
Last, and probably least, is the change Royal needs to deal with at quarterback. No matter what you think of Kyle Orton, no sane person can argue he's a better QB than Jay Cutler. So AT BEST, Eddie Royal is going to have a mild downtick in his signal caller. But I fear it could be much worse. Orton has thrown 4 INTs in two preseason games, and looked every bit the pedestrian passer we saw in Chicago. Some would argue Orton will benefit from the better receiving corps in Denver, I'm not convinced.

Positives

• Royal became only the 23rd rookie WR with at least 900 yards receiving, and showed remarkable poise and polish for a player that many viewed as talented but in need of some seasoning
• Royal has been the Broncos best player in training camp, and appears to have built a rapport with Kyle Orton while Brandon Marshall deals with his own drama
• The Broncos are going to throw the ball a lot, between the sorry state of the defense and the desire to be akin to the Patriots West

Negatives

• The Brandon Marshall saga makes it hard to know what Royal's role will really be
• For as good as he was last year, he only averaged 10.8 yards per catch and lacked the explosiveness of a great receiver
• Kyle Orton is slated to play quarterback

Final Thoughts

Eddie Royal is a player I like in a situation I don't. Put Royal on the Eagles or Colts or Packers and I'm arguing for potential Top 12 status. But in Denver, with a coach that's done nothing to impress me, with a QB that I have grave concerns about, there's a risk the wheels could come off for any Broncos fantasy option. That said, Royal has a current ADP of WR23 which I think is a safe bet so long as the worst case scenario in Denver doesn't come to fruition. I currently think Royal is a good but not great WR2 in traditional leagues, and a rock solid WR2 in PPR leagues. Don't reach for him, but don't pass him up if he's available in the 6th round or later and you already have your WR1 rostered.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Banger:
Last year Royal was a rookie and had a real nice season but I think he played in the best case scenario. He was on a team that passed, passed, passed had a top QB and a good threat on the other side to take coverage. Now they've got a new head coach, new QB, new RB, may or may not have their best WR and will reportedly look to be a run, run, run team. A lot of change in surroundings for Royal and none of them good. I'm not feeling the Bronco's at all this year and their season looks like it's headed for implosion (think KC from last year). Things can turn around but as it looks now there is very little good news in Donkey land.

Ministry of Pain:
Fool's gold...cannot believe this guy is being drafted as high as the 3rd round in some leagues and gone by the end of the 4th. Did everyone miss the press conference where Jay Cutler was introduced as the Chicago Bears QB? What happened when Orton was announced...blurb on ESPN?.. ...This offense is not high powered anymore. Emphasis will be on the running game to keep that putrid defense off the field. Once the Broncos fall behind 21-7, don't assume Orton will be good at airing it out. In fact I expect the defenses to pin their ears back and get after him. Look at the history of bad teams and you won't find a lot of QBs on potential 4-12 teams throwing for 4,000 yds and 25 TDs...if they could do that they would win more games.

fantasyglory:
Eddie Royal is covered in a haze right now with the uncertainty of Brandon Marshall's situation and a new quarterback and head coach. He completely outperformed his expectations as a rookie with 91 catches and 980 yards and 5 touchdowns and I do not see any reason to see a monstrous drop off from those numbers but without Marshall I do not see Royal replicating or exceeding these numbers as Marshall commands the attention of the entire defense. He is playing in a West Coast offense that emphasizes getting him the ball quickly and YAC much in the manner that Wes Welker plays for the Patriots. I envision McDaniels will use Royal in a similar manner. Because of this I do not see the quarterback change providing as marked of an impact fantasy-wise. Good things have been said about him in training camp but it still is only June so its taken with a grain of salt and with Marshall's uncertainty its not so obvious what kind of impact Royal will have.

valhallan:
The Broncos are in flux so the offense as a whole is hard to predict, but I think Eddie Royal is a case where talent wins out over situation. The kid can flat out run routes and get open, meaning the ball will find its way to him just as it does for guys like Bowe and White (circa 2007) who haven't always had the best quarterbacking. Royal is one of those guys that work hard, love the game, and have the sick skills to be successful.

Tubalcane:
I see Royal's numbers this year coming close to Keary Colbert and Michael Clayton's second year numbers; in other words a disaster.

There are just two many question marks concerning the Broncos to give anybody on that team a positive review. They forsook their most glaring need in the draft (defense) to draft offensive players. Now they are going to pay for it.

Eddie Royal Projections