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Spotlight - QB Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Posted on 8/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Tony Romo is arguably the Rodney Dangerfield of NFL quarterbacks. For a hobby that usually decides its championship before the NFL regular season is over, it's curious why so many fantasy owners let Romo's playoff missteps cloud their opinion. Yet, that's the only thing that would explain why this uber-talented passer gets discounted by so many each season.

Let's be clear, Tony Romo has been a FANTASTIC passer thus far in his career. Consider:

• Career Passing TD% (6.2%) = 1st among active QBs, 10th All-time
• Career Passer Rating (94.7) = 1st among active QBs, 2nd All-time
• Career Yards/Attempt (8.1) = 1st among active QBs, 4th All-time
• Career Yards/Completion (12.7) = 1st among active QBs
• Career Adjusted Yards/Attempt (7.12) = 1st among active QBs, 1st All-time
• Career Net Yards/Attempt (7.39) = 1st among active QBs, 1st All-time
• Career Completion Rate (63.6%) = 6th among active QBs, 7th All-time

And he's been no slouch from a fantasy perspective, either:

• 2006 -- 20.4 points per game (4th best)
• 2007 -- 23.6 points per game (2nd best)
• 2008 -- 21.4 points per game (6th best)

These are astoundingly good numbers that rival the best to ever play the game, yet people seem to find reasons to think Romo isn't "the real deal." But if you're reading this, you're smarter than that. Yes, he has dated two blonde pop stars, but I don't see anyone dropping Tom Brady down their lists because he married the world's most famous supermodel. And if you were worried his carousing with Jessica Simpson distracted him, then you should praise him for cutting it off with her before training camp. Yes, he's struggled in the playoffs; but Peyton Manning was a guy who "couldn't win the big game" until he did. Yet I don't recall many fantasy owners crossing Manning off their fantasy lists before that Super Bowl victory.

Nonsense aside, there are a number of legitimate questions facing Romo and the Cowboys this season.

1) T.O. is gone, long live Roy? -- Terrell Owens caught 38 of Romo's 81 TD passes, and is one of the best scoring threats to ever suit up at wide receiver. The Cowboys have no replacement for him, and are counting on Roy Williams (a complete bust in 10 games last year) evolving into the WR1 Jerry Jones envisioned. So far, the chemistry between Williams and Romo remains a work in progress.

2) Addition by Subtraction? -- There is a possible silver lining to Owens' departure. TO is unhappy when he's not getting the ball, and that clearly crossed into dysfunctional territory last season, as Romo sometimes appeared to throw to Owens too much; presumably to placate the diva wideout. Now that Owens is a Buffalo Bill, one can expect Romo to stay balanced and focused in every game. He has the vision, delivery and pocket presence to spread the ball around to lots of receivers.

3) Can he stay healthy? -- Romo hurt his thumb last year and it cost him 3 games. But that was a fluke injury and he's 100% healthy entering camp. As importantly, his offensive line does a good job of keeping pressure away; giving up an average of 22 sacks per season.

The cupboard is hardly bare. Good quarterbacks put up good numbers even in the absence of stars. Donovan McNabb enjoyed his best season with Owens, but he has been an elite fantasy QB in other seasons, too. Tom Brady may not have thrown 50 TDs without Randy Moss, but he had plenty of strong fantasy campaigns before Moss became a Patriot. And while Romo may not have a clear cut WR1 this year, he's got a ton of ancillary talent that should help him remain productive.

• TE Jason Witten is the best TE in the game, period
• TE Martellus Bennett is explosive, a proven red zone threat, and will be on the field a ton in 2TE sets
• RB Marion Barber is an adept receiver (7.4 yards per catch, 6 TDs in last 3 seasons)
• RB Felix Jones is a home-run in waiting
• RB Tashard Choice can catch the ball (8.8 yards per catch)

OC Jason Garrett understands the importance of spreading the ball around, and that's going to happen this year. The offensive line is a plus, the running game will keep defenses honest, and Romo is healthy and motivated to disprove his critics. Is he a smart bet to be a Top 3 QB? Probably not. But is he one of the safer bets to finish in the top 7-8, but can be had many rounds later than the other elite options? Absolutely.

Positives

• Through his first 3 seasons as a starter, Romo ranks among the all-time best in a litany of key passing metrics
• The combination of his athleticism and a productive pass blocking O-line allows him to take fewer hits than most
• Romo is being drafted a round or two later than he should mainly because fantasy owners are concerning themselves with nonsense that has no bearing on his fantasy value

Negatives

• Terrell Owens is a touchdown machine, and Roy Williams (his replacement) did very little in 10 games last year as a Cowboy
• Romo is a bit of a gunslinger, and will have games where he throws 2 or 3 interceptions
• With a 3-headed monster at RB and an improved defense, the team is probably going to call a more balanced run/pass ratio

Final Thoughts

Tony Romo is being drafted 7th among QBs and 48th overall. I would comfortably use a 5th round draft choice on Romo and know that I'm getting one of the few elite passers in the game. There is admittedly more risk to Romo this year as he transitions to a "Post TO" era, but it's a risk worth taking. He's never finished lower than QB6 on a per game basis and is entering his physical and mental prime. He still have the league's best TE, and a cadre of above average weapons at other positions. As long as he stays healthy, Romo is a good bet to finish in the Top 10, with considerably higher upside if Roy Williams can emerge as a true WR1 and/or Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin and Sam Hurd can provide consistent depth.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Bankerguy:
I agree that the Cowboys will try to become a more balanced offense from a run to pass ratio. However, I don't see Garrett all of the sudden going completely conservative. They still have a decent WR corps and the best pair of TEs in the league (Witten/Bennett). I'm not predicting a great season, but it shouldn't mean doom and gloom for Romo either.

rzrback77:
The book on Romo is still being written. He has not shown to be a clutch player yet and neither has his team lately. He has had very high expectations and fell a little short most times. This will only be his fourth as a starter and he could progress rather than the seemingly expected decrease this season.

The one thing that I keep coming back to on Romo is not yet showing strong leadership. I recall a quote in the off-season where he indicated that he was planning to be a better leader this year. That is not really something someone plans to do. Either you are or you aren't, its not like you practice at leading and get better.

The Cowboys definitely have less talented WRs this season without Owens, unless Roy Williams exceeds most folks projections. They have three very good running backs so the thought seems to be that they should use them more. They have averaged almost 34 passes per game the last two years, which would be 544 over the season, so I don't expect a drastic decrease from that.

One last troubling stat is Romo's ypa over his three years as a starter. In 05, his first season, he averaged a phenomenal 8.6 ypa. The next year it dropped to a solid 8.1. Last year it slipped further to 7.7. Now, there is nothing wrong with 7.7, but his completion percentage has also steadily declined. I anticipate with the loss of Owens, the ypa could slip more with a increased focus on the TEs and RBs in patterns.

osubuckeyeman:
Felix Jones back with Witten/Bennet and even Choice to provide the depth is a high octane offense. Roy Williams is a HUGE underrated player right now and I can see nothing but upside in my opinion. Roy came into the offense in the middle of the year and had to learn the offense and terminology along with getting aquainted with a new qb, not to mention TO in his typical distraction form. Williams in Detriot when the #1 option and with a weaker qb, not to mention a much poorer offense shined bright. I see good things in Romo's future as long as the Cowboys can stay healthy it's a Fantasy gold mine. I think Felix really opens things up and it's important to get him involved in the passing game which should open a lot of space in the middle. Garret has no intention of going out conservative and I think he wants to show the league what he can do for his next job(head coach).

I like this offense for Fantasy production.

What's a defense going to do??? Put 8 or 9 in the box to stop the run??? or play a lot of zone??? Blitz with Felix/BarberWitten waiting for the dump off??? They need that 2nd receiver to come on to be complete(Miles/Crayton).

davlar:
For me, the jury is still out on Romo as an NFL QB. Just when you think he is on a roll with the offense, he throws that costly interception or fumbles the ball during a crucial period. Granted, it is not always his fault, but there are times when he looks fragile.

Obviously the biggest loss for him is Owens, but the flip side to that is that Owens won't be asking for the ball on every play. Romo has played with Owens his whole career. Now that 81 is out of town, Roy Williams takes his place as Dallas' number one option, and that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in me. Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback are unproven. That means Jason Witten is the only viable option in the passing attack that is a proven commodity. He is set for his best season of his career quite possibly.

Dallas will run the ball more this year, especially since they have Felix Jones healthy again. Tashard Choice also showed a lot of promise last season, especially in that Pittsburgh game. So it will be run first for the Cowboys in '09.

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